It’s been a difficult 48 hours for Kansas City Royals fans.
On Thursday, the Royals lost 6-3 despite holding a one-run lead in the bottom of the 8th. Not only did new Royals closer Lucas Erceg fail to come through, but he also had to be removed from the game after a ball ricocheted off his throwing hand.
However, the worst news of that play was that on Erceg’s errant throw to first, Vinnie Pasquantino hurt himself as he tried to make a play at first. Vinnie was immediately removed from the game, and in the morning, the Royals shared some brutal news about his injury status.
As a result, the Royals put Vinnie on the 10-Day IL and called up Nick Loftin from Omaha. Loftin struggled in his return to the Royals lineup, as he went 0-for-4 with a strikeout. With the Royals, Loftin is hitting .193 with a .528 OPS in 168 plate appearances this season.
The reality is that the Royals will not have Vinnie for the remainder of the regular season. If they make the postseason, he probably won’t make an appearance unless they make it deep, and even then, I’m not sure if he will have a regular role due to the unpredictable nature of a thumb injury.
Thus, manager Matt Quatraro and the Royals have to devise a plan to replace Vinnie’s production in the lineup. That task is easier said than done, especially since the Trade Deadline passed a month ago.
So what should the Royals do with the lineup with Vinnie out?
This isn’t the time to be conservative with their roster, especially with roughly a month left in the regular season.
Giving some of the young position players in Omaha a chance to prove their upside would benefit the Royals, both down the stretch and in the offseason.
The Problem With Nick Loftin
In my latest post for Farm to Fountains, I suggested Loftin was a likely candidate to move to Kansas City when rosters expanded on September 1st. Even though he has rough surface-level numbers, his plate approach fits the Royals’ desire to have high-contact hitters in the lineup.
Even after Loftin’s subpar return, he still posts a walk rate of 11.3% and a K rate of 13.7%. He also only has a chase rate of 20.9%, well below the league average of 28.5%.
That said, Loftin has struggled to make hard contact this season with the Royals.
According to Statcast data, his barrel rate, average exit velocity, and hard-hit rate are all considerably down from his rookie season in 2023. While he has seen some uptick in his hard-hit rate lately based on his hard-hit rate rolling chart via Savant, it still has been consistently below average for most of the season.
Loftin has been a league-average player on a Process+ level this year, which is encouraging. The Power+ numbers are paltry. However, as seen in the chart below, he makes up for it in the Decision Value+ and Contact+ areas.
Therefore, Loftin was not the wrong choice initially when replacing Vinnie. He can play multiple positions, including first base. Furthermore, his disciplined approach and high-contact ability will give the Royals lineup competitive at-bats, which they need right now with Vinnie out of the lineup.
That said, Loftin’s profile is quite similar to that of two other players on the Royals bench: Garrett Hampson and Adam Frazier.
Below, via Fangraphs, you will see how they’ve compared overall this season.
As Royals fans can see, Hampson is the only one with a positive fWAR, and it’s mostly propped up by his stellar defense (5.8 Def) and baserunning (1.3 BsR). Frazier has the best wRC+ but the worst fWAR of the group (-0.7). Loftin has the highest walk rate and lowest K rate but also the lowest ISO at .048.
According to Statcast data, Loftin has a similar profile this season to Hampson and Frazier, especially regarding the hard-hit rate.
It’s not like Loftin shouldn’t be on this Royals roster. He provides a high floor when it comes to making contact. His position versatility defensively is a trait that Quatraro and the Royals highly value, especially near the end of the season when depth is essential.
At the same time, though, I am unsure if keeping two other players with Loftin’s similar skill set is worth it for the Royals.
Jonathan Dyer | Credit: USA TODAY Sports via ReutersThis is especially true regarding making up for losing Vinnie’s bat in the lineup. The aggregate of Hampson, Loftin, and Frazier, regardless of position, isn’t going to move the needle offensively, which only puts more pressure on Bobby Witt, Jr. and Salvador Perez to carry the lineup.
The Royals can still keep Loftin when rosters expand on Sunday. At this point, I am OK with keeping Loftin, especially considering the concerns with Michael Massey and his need to DH when his back flares up.
That said, the Royals should think creatively when replacing Vinnie, and that creativity should come from someone in Omaha who is clearly at a crossroads with the Royals organization.
Could Velazquez Give the Royals a Jolt?
There’s no question that Pasquantino was one of the Royals’ more dependable run producers this season.
Of Royals hitters with 100 or more plate appearances, Pasquantino leads all Royals hitters with 97 RBI. He also is third in home runs with 19 and 4th in wRC+ with a 106 mark. Interestingly, his wRC+ is only 1.3 due to shaky baserunning and defensive numbers. His fWAR is tied with Maikel Garcia, who has been much maligned by Royals fans this season after some regression at the plate in 2024.
Regarding replacing Vinnie, the Royals should find someone with some power upside who can at least hit the ball hard and show a decent process at the plate in run-producing situations. Having the ability to play first base should also be a plus, though if Loftin, Salvy, and possibly Hunter Renfroe (who played some 1B last year) can hold down the spot, a hitter who can man the outfield or DH wouldn’t hurt either.
Based on those criteria, I settled on looking at five Omaha hitters who could fit that bill: Devin Mann, CJ Alexander, Drew Waters, Nick Pratto, and Nelson Velazquez.
Here’s how that group fared this year in various Statcast metrics via Savant:
Mann doesn’t fare too well in his Statcast metrics. While he has solid BB and K numbers and the lowest whiff rate, his Exit Velocity and Hard-Hit rates rank the worst of this group. Thus, I am unsure if he would be much different than Loftin at the Major League level.
Waters is an intriguing option due to his positional versatility and baserunning ability. He also has decent EV and Barrel rate numbers. However, his xBA was only .231, and his xwOBA was .315, both tied with Mann’s marks. Furthermore, it seems like the Royals organization doesn’t have much trust in Waters, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see him in another organization next season.
Alexander has the group’s best hard-hit EV, xwOBA, and barrel numbers. Conversely, he has the lowest walk rate and looked absolutely overmatched at the Major League level in his brief tenure on both the hitting and fielding end. With options remaining, the Royals likely won’t tap Alexander to fill in for Vinnie.
Thus, it comes down to Velazquez and Pratto, and Nelly should get the nod, even if he doesn’t fix the Royals’ first-base situation as neatly as Pratto.
Now, there’s no question that Nelly has been a disappointment this year after a promising 2023 when he hit 17 home runs in 179 appearances with the Cubs and Royals. He was only hitting .200 with a .640 OPS and eight home runs before he was demoted to Omaha on June 24th.
However, his metrics with the Royals and Storm Chasers show a hitter who could be a good fit for the Royals with Vinnie on the IL for the remainder of the season.
Of the five Storm Chaser hitters in the above sample, Velazquez is the only one in Omaha with a K% under 20%. He also had the highest walk rate at 15.3%. Those are significant improvements from the 26.5% K rate and 8.8% walk rate he flashed with the Royals this season.
His hard-hit rate, xBA, and xWOBA ranked second in that group, behind only Alexander. He has also been performing much better since August 6th, with a 101 wRC+, 0.77 BB/K ratio, and .744 OPS over that time.
It’s also interesting to compare Velazquez’s Process+ metrics from his time in the Majors to Pasquantino’s. Surprisingly, one could say that Velazquez isn’t all that far off from Vinnie, even though Pasquantino has a much more significant sample advantage.
Lastly, based on Fangraphs Win Probability data, Velazquez has performed well in clutch situations with the Royals this season. Nelly ranked 5th in the clutch metric with a 0.70 mark.
As Royals fans can see, he was better than Vinnie in clutch situations, as well as Fermin, Garcia, Hampson, Renfroe, and Massey. Velazquez has had a positive impact on performing in high-leverage situations in 2024.
Nelly doesn’t completely solve the Royals’ woes offensively for the remainder of the season. Furthermore, he could struggle like he did in April and return to Omaha before we know it.
That said, at the very least, Velazquez would give the Royals a legitimate DH candidate against left-handed starting pitchers down the stretch.
What About Pratto?
There was some thought among Royals fans that Pratto would be tabbed to replace Vinnie on the active roster, especially after news broke that 1B Chris Brito was being transferred from High-A Quad Cities to Omaha.
Before the Brito news, Peston Farr of “Farm to Fountains” wrote this Tweet, which made me think about Pratto and his outlook with the Royals in the long term.
Pratto has not accumulated a single at-bat at the Major League level this season. In Triple-A Omaha, he’s been a disappointment.
The left-handed first baseman has hit 14 home runs but has a whiff rate of 31.3% and K% of 29.7%. His xBA is only .218, and his xwOBA is .287. For a player who’s been a regular in Omaha since 2022, to see him continue to post these kinds of numbers is discouraging.
It’s too bad that Pratto stagnated this year, especially considering the promise he showed when he was initially called up in 2023, as I mentioned on Twitter yesterday after the Vinnie news.
Unfortunately, as we saw from his Process+ rolling chart last year, Pratto’s contact ability and decision-making at the plate deteriorated by July. By the conclusion of the 2023 season, he was a below-average hitter.
On a defensive end, Pratto can certainly fill in for Vinnie and could be an upgrade.
Though the metrics haven’t been great in his career (-4 fielding run value via Savant), he did win a Minor League Gold Glove in 2021. Thus, he gives the Royals’ infield defense a more proven option, one that can handle the tough throws and make plays around the bag.
That said, is good defense at first base enough to warrant regular at-bats for Pratto? And while he got hot in 2023, can he do that for a month in a high-pressure situation with the postseason on the line?
Pratto has had a knack for the dramatic and coming in clutch. After all, his golden moment at the Major League level was when he hit a walk-off home run against the Boston Red Sox in 2022 at Kauffman (a game I attended).
Unfortunately, it doesn’t seem like JJ Picollo or Quatraro has faith that Pratto could give the Royals that boost they need at first base. We will know for sure on Sunday when rosters expand, but it would be surprising if Pratto is tabbed to fill in at first in some role for the remainder of the 2024 season.
This is probably a sign that Pratto will be out of the Royals organization by this offseason (like Waters), especially since he has no Minor League options remaining in 2025.
That would be a disappointing end for the Royals’ first-round pick in 2017, who was considered the next “Eric Hosmer.”
Photo Credit: Jonathan Dyer | USA TODAY Sports via Reuters
Bringing up Pratto is a sound move. It seems he has become a different hitter. A sign that he may be playing with a nagging injury. Yet, his defense can justify bringing him up in hopes he hits well and then, if he becomes trade bait, his value is increased. Right now he is an added player, not the central figure..
Velasquez should be brought up because of his bat. While somewhat disappointing, I would not consider the season a disaster for a player of his age.
There are some things you can fix in a hitter and others that you can. Increasing EV might require a combination of mechanics and approach that Im not prepared to discuss. Personally, I’d trade him and Massey. Move Maikel to 2b, where his stats look much better than at 3b and look for a suitable bat who can field the position. Maybe Fermin, who’s been,aging on the bench. He can hit, and Salvy doesn’t seem to be slowing down. Bring up a catcher prospect to ease in over TBE next two years. At 3b “range”is basically how far you can lunge. I’m older. Grew up in Brooks, Schmidt, Tony Perez, Pete Rose, Boggs, Nettles, Nando and Joe Torre. They all touched the infield grass with their toes. We should adopt that fielding philosophy @ 3b. Let our as sit deep and use his range.
Finally, Waters should,get a ” Come to Jesus” talk. He is a Boras guy. His power is worth godly at AAA. He MUST change his approach at the plate if he pretends to be an MLB outfielder. Solid contact is only good if it is frequent. I will take a Texas blooper rather than a K. And don’t be afraid to threaten him with a trade to the Chi-Sox if he doesn’t get with the program. Right now, he’s a colossal waste of talent.
With the news of Pham, Grossman, and Gurriel, I have a feeling that neither Velazquez nor Pratto will get an opportunity. I feel worse for Nelly than Pratto. As you said, for a player of his age, I don’t think this season was that bad and some regression was to be expected. I think that’s an interesting strategy to perhaps trade him and Massey. Personally, I would rather keep Maikel over Massey at 2B. Maikel has had to adjust a bit at 2B, but I think if he played a full year there, his defense would be just as good as it is at third. Again, not a great season for Maikel, but he’s still been remarkably productive despite a down season.
I am not sure what the plan should be with Waters. He obviously hasn’t responded and adding Pham and Grossman basically feels like it’s it for Waters and his outlook in KC. I have liked him a lot as a player and there was a time where I thought he had more upside than Isbel.
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