The Royals had one of their most successful road trips of the season, winning six of seven against the White Sox and Tigers over the past week. Their sixth win came on a go-ahead, pinch-hit three-run home run by MJ Melendez in the top of the ninth on Sunday afternoon at Comerica Park.
As of Sunday, the Royals are 63-50. They are 2.5 games ahead of the Boston Red Sox for the final AL Wild Card spot and just five games behind the Guardians in the AL Central. This club is not just playing some exciting ball but is setting itself up well for an intriguing two months of play.
In this edition of the “Jottings,” I examine James McArthur’s struggles (and what the Royals should do), the Royals hitters’ contact rates on “Farm to Fountains,” and why this upcoming week is a huge homestand for the Royals and their postseason hopes.
What Do the Royals Do with James McArthur?
It’s been a rough 2024 for reliever James McArthur.
The second-year reliever has saved 18 games for the Royals this season but has seen his ERA and WHIP balloon to 5.32 and 1.45, respectively. July was particularly rough for McArthur, as he posted a 9.35 ERA and allowed 10 runs on 14 hits in 8.2 IP.
Saturday seemed to be another frustrating outing for not just McArthur but Royals fans, who’ve been clamoring for a closer to replace him for quite some time. In 0.2 IP, the 27-year-old righty allowed two runs on two hits and a walk. One of the hits was a walk-off single by Tigers leadoff man Wenceel Perez.
Granted, his outing on Saturday wasn’t a traditional “closing” opportunity for McArthur.
Hunter Harvey and Kris Bubic couldn’t close the door on the 9th and 10th, respectively. However, because of his struggles and inconsistency in his closer role this year, McArthur received the most backlash on Twitter and social media.
McArthur’s biggest issue this year has been the regression in his breaking ball effectiveness. According to Savant, his breaking run value ranks in the bottom third percentile, and he has seen an increase in xwOBA on contact on his breaking pitches this season.
When looking at the PLV metrics of his curveball, he still displays some good pitch quality on the breaking offering.
However, his biggest issue is his pitch location. He has thrown in hittable areas too often this season, which explains the increase in wOBA from .196 in 2023 to .372 in 2024 and the increase in average exit velocity on the pitch, which has gone from 81.2 MPH in 2023 to 92.7 MPH in 2024.
The slider has been a good offering in terms of generating whiffs. According to Savant, it has a whiff rate of 40.8%, a 10.6% increase from a year ago. However, the pitch’s PLV metrics are mediocre, especially compared to his curve ball.
The slider has better movement than the curve on both a vertical and horizontal level. That said, the slider’s plvLoc+ and PLV massively lag behind the curve. The slider’s location data also confirms the pitch’s mediocre plvLoc+ data.
As Royals fans can see, McArthur is either not locating it in the zone or serving it right in the middle of the plate. That is not a good recipe for success, especially for a pitch with questionable quality in the first place.
The Royals will likely need to make a roster move when John Schreiber returns from the 15-day IL. McArthur is one of the only “struggling” relievers with a Minor League option.
The Royals and McArthur may benefit from sending him to Omaha to work on his pitch quality, mix, and command, much like they did with Alec Marsh recently.
Royals Hitters’ Emphasis on Contact
In my latest piece for “Farm to Fountains,” I wrote about the Royals hitters and their improvement in overall contact ability in 2024. That emphasis on contact has led to more positive run production outcomes for this group this season compared to a year ago.
Here’s a snippet from the piece:
Despite the Royals’ leadoff woes, the offense has seen significant improvement from a year ago. Last year, the Royals ranked 28th in team wRC+ with an 87 mark. This season? That mark is 98, an 11-point improvement from 2023 and good for 17th in baseball, ahead of clubs like Atlanta, Seattle, and the Cubs.
Of course, Bobby Witt, Jr.’s breakout is a big reason the Royals’ overall offense has improved. Witt’s 170 wRC+ is 4th-best in baseball, and his 7.7 fWAR leads all MLB players, including Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani. That said, the Royals offense has also seen positive growth in one category that has helped this group become more productive in 2024.
The Royals emphasize making contact at the plate, which is paying off.
Check out the piece, comment on the “Farm to Fountains” post, and subscribe if you haven’t already. We’re unveiling some great stuff at the site to make it an even more critical resource for Royals fans.
Red Sox and Cardinals Visit Kauffman This Week
The Royals return to Kauffman for a three-game set against the Red Sox from Monday to Wednesday and then for a weird two-game Friday-Saturday set against cross-state rival St. Louis. Since the new schedule changes a year ago, the I-70 Series has been limited to only four games overall in a given season.
The Red Sox series is critical from an unmistakable standpoint: the Royals are trying to hold off Boston in the AL Wild Card race.
If the Royals can sweep the Red Sox, they will be 5.5 games ahead of the Red Sox in the Wild Card going into the weekend set against the Cardinals. If the Royals get swept, the Red Sox suddenly have that Wild Card spot by 0.5 games.
Boston is coming off a big 7-2 win on Sunday against the Rangers in the series finale. Former Royals reliever Walter Pennington had a rough day, giving up three runs in an inning of work, including a big home run to Red Sox infielder David Hamilton.
The Royals do not need to sweep the Red Sox, as that would be challenging (Boston took 2 of 3 from Kansas City at Fenway right before the All-Star Break). However, winning the series is a must for a Royals team looking to stay in the postseason hunt.
The Royals-Cardinals series is interesting as this is the rare year where the Royals have been much better than their Eastern Missouri neighbors.
The Cardinals are 57-55, which puts them 5.5 games behind the Brewers in the NL Central race and three games behind the last NL Wild Card spot. They are also 4-6 in their last 10 and have a -42 run differential, the worst mark of any club in the NL Central.
To make matters worse, they dropped the last game of the weekend series against the rival Cubs at Wrigley Field.
The Royals swept a doubleheader against the Cardinals at Busch Stadium on July 10th. A rainout on July 9th forced a doubleheader that Wednesday. However, the result undoubtedly pleased the Royals fans who made the trek across Missouri.
It would be nice to see the Royals win the season series against St. Louis and sweep the season series as well.
It would give Kansas City tremendous bragging rights over St. Louis over the offseason (which Kansas City folks are more than happy to have over St. Louis natives for a change).
Furthermore, dampening the Cardinals’ postseason outlook could also help the Royals build momentum for an important road series in Minnesota from August 12th to the 14th against the Twins, who are just above Kansas City in the division standings.
Photo Credit: Paul Sancya | AP
On contact… Just like “you have to finish a race to win it”, you have to hit the ball to hit a HR. I’m surprised that the Royals are not making hitters look for contact, even at the expense of power. Once they learn how to make contact effectively, they will subconsciously hit the ball with as much authority as they can get desired results with.
Would you rather have a .250, 40 HR guy…
Or a .280 35 HR guy
Or, a .310 28 HR guy?
All with the same proportion of extrabase hits?
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I think the Royals hitters are doing that better than a year ago. We’ve seen the overall K rates drop and contact rates go up, especially from some of the younger hitters (MJ, Massey, Garcia, etc.). I think the power will start to come, but I’m okay with what the Royals coaches are emphasizing.