The Royals begin their first homestand of the second half, starting with a weekend series against the rival Chicago White Sox. The White Sox come to Kauffman for the first time since early April when they were swept in a four-game set.
Going into the All-Star Break, the Royals remain in the playoff hunt, though the odds are not as strong as the Guardians and Twins, who are ahead of Kansas City in the Central division.
As of Friday, according to Fangraphs, the Royals’ odds of making the postseason is 34.5%. That lags significantly behind the Guardians (85.8%), Twins (81.1%), and even the Red Sox (52.7%), who hold the last Wild Card spot in the AL.
Nonetheless, Kansas City will not disappear quietly in the Central division, especially given the strength of schedule for all 30 MLB teams.
The Royals’ second-half schedule is the 18th-toughest, significantly more manageable than the Red Sox’s (toughest) and Guardians’ (third-hardest). The Twins rank 17th, so there’s not much of a difference there, but the bottom line is the Royals certainly have the opportunity to get right back in the thick of the postseason race if they play their cards right.
To get back in the Wild Card and Central race, two things need to happen:
1.) The Royals need to add to their roster.
2.) They need to see stronger performances from key players in the second half.
Already, JJ Picollo has somewhat accomplished point one, as he acquired reliever Hunter Harvey from the Washington Nationals for Cayden Wallace and the 39th pick in this most recent draft (which ended up being Cal catcher Caleb Lomavita).
Harvey is likely just the tip of the iceberg for the Royals, as Picollo will be active before the July 30th Trade Deadline. Kansas City has also been rumored to be in talks with other players, such as Miami’s Jazz Chisholm and Chicago’s Tommy Pham.
Regarding point two, four key players have had subpar or inconsistent first-half performances and could be in line for turnarounds after the All-Star Break.
Let’s look at those four Royals players (two hitters and two pitchers) and what data from the first half should help Royals fans feel encouraged about their outlook in the second half of the season.
Maikel Garcia
As I mentioned in my Royals Midseason Honors post, Garcia has been one of the most disappointing hitters in the first half.
In 95 games and 412 plate appearances, the 24-year-old infielder has a slash line of .230/.282/.344 with an OPS of .624 and wRC+ of 73. Even though he has hit six home runs this season, two more than his total a year ago, Garcia has struggled to show much consistency at the plate, causing him to lose his spot as leadoff hitter recently to Adam Frazier.
A big reason for Garcia’s decline was a brutal stretch in June. In that month, he posted a 10 wRC+ and .185 wOBA. Take that month away, and Garcia’s hitting performance doesn’t look too bad, based on his Fangraphs splits.
Garcia had a productive May, posting a .338 wOBA and 115 wRC+ that month. Furthermore, his March/April performance (82 wRC+) has been similar to his July splits (86 wRC+). That shows that Garcia can be a semi-productive hitter, which is more than enough with his defensive and baserunning skills.
What’s been interesting to see from Garcia’s monthly numbers is that his contact skills and eye haven’t suffered despite his struggles. His BB/K ratio was 0.50 in June and is 0.42 for the season. That 2024 mark is better than his 0.33 ratio from 2023. Furthermore, he has lowered his K% by seven percent from a year ago.
When looking at his contact ability and decision value rolling chart data via PLV, the Venezuelan infielder has been one of the better performers in the league, even though his surface-level metrics have been disappointing.
The batted-ball metrics haven’t been as great, which explains the decline in June. After sporting an above-league-average hard-hit rate for most of the year, he has seen his hard-hit rate decline to below average, which is a concerning sign and a reason why manager Matt Quatraro bumped him down in the order.
His hard-hit rate should be a focus of Royals fans and could help determine if he can return to where he was at the beginning of the season as a hitter. Those hard-hit rates were starting to creep back up slowly, and if they do get back to previous levels, he could be due for a strong performance in the second half at the plate.
Garcia probably has lost his spot as the Royals’ leadoff hitter for the remainder of the season. However, his strong plate discipline and contact ability should regularly keep him in the lineup. He can be a sneaky run-producing option at the bottom of the order if he can get his hard-hit rates back to average.
A productive-hitting Garcia, which the Royals saw in May, could help Kansas City get back in the division race and solidify a spot in the postseason…even if Garcia is doing so in the 7 to 9 spots in the batting order.
James McArthur
The Royals bullpen has gotten its fair share of grief, and understandably so. In the first half, they ranked 28th in WHIP, 29th in K/9, and 29th in H/9. Thus, it makes sense that the Royals brought in Harvey and designated veteran reliever Nick Anderson for assignment.
Some Royals fans may think that Harvey should immediately be the closer when play resumes on July 19th. However, they should not sleep on McArthur, a much stronger pitcher lately.
Like Garcia, McArthur was dogged by one terrible month, which happened to be May.
In May, he posted a 7.36 FIP and 9.00 ERA. Even though those numbers had Royals fans riled up, his 3.79 xFIP was a more tolerable mark, and he also had an 8.00 K/BB ratio. That hinted that McArthur’s struggles in May were more due to batted-ball luck and mistakes that led to too many barrels and home runs (3.60 HR/9).
The strikeout numbers have declined in June and July. However, he’s been much better at minimizing hard contact over the past two months, as seen in his hard-hit rolling chart this season via Savant.
A significant difference for McArthur since May is that he’s utilizing his four-seamer and curveball more and his sinker and slider less.
After barely utilizing the four-seamer in April and May, he’s throwing the pitch 20.3% of the time in July. It makes sense for him to make this jump with how effective the pitch has been this month. The four-seamer sports a whiff rate of 33.3%, a put-away rate of 25%, and an xwOBA of .099.
Here’s an example of McArthur pumping the four-seamer up to 95 MPH to induce a whiff of All-Star Jarred Duran of Boston right before the All-Star Break.
It’s not just the four-seamer that’s been booming lately. McArthur’s curveball had a whiff rate of 30.8% in June and 25% in July. It also has seen an improvement in xwOBA, from .404 in May to .267 in June to .229 in July.
Thus, it’s not surprising that, based on those metrics, he’s throwing the curve 39.1% of the time this season. The pitch has made many hitters look silly lately, including Aaron Judge of the Yankees at Kauffman in June.
Harvey will be a big boost to this Royals bullpen and should help fans feel more comfortable in high-leverage situations in the late innings.
However, McArthur is still the closer and could solidify that role long-term with a solid second half, which, based on the past two months, he’s more than capable of achieving.
Vinnie Pasquantino
It’s not that Vinnie Pasquantino has been bad this year. He has 11 home runs after all this year, which is tied for third-most for Royals hitters in the first half. Conversely, fans expected much more this year from Vinnie, especially as the Royals’ No. 3 hitter.
In 384 plate appearances, Vinnie has a slash line of .246/.310/.421 with a .314 wOBA and 99 wRC+. His 0.6 fWAR ranks 8th of Royals position players, behind struggling hitter Garcia, the oft-injured Michael Massey, and much-maligned (though I don’t know why) utility man Garrett Hampson.
A peculiar trend for Vinnie has been the massive difference in his home and away splits this year. MJ Melendez has gotten most of the attention for being a much different hitter at the K than on the road. That said, Vinnie’s home and away splits have been just as extreme, as seen below.
Vinnie’s home wRC+ is 41 points higher than his away wRC+. Furthermore, the splits on his performance against right-handed pitchers at home compared to on the road are also worth examining.
On the road, Vinnie’s 67 wRC+ against righties is 68 points worse than his mark against righties at the K. Even more concerning is that his wRC+ against righties on the road is 30 points lower than his mark against lefties. The plate approach on the road against righties is theoretically better (0.52 BB/K ratio against righties compared to 0.13 against lefties). However, the power against righties (.141 ISO) is significantly behind his power ISO against lefties (.222).
The home and away splits are concerning, and one has to wonder what kind of adjustments Vinnie could make in the second half to help raise his hitting performance away from the K. Furthermore, his righty/lefty splits are also concerning, mainly since Vinnie is depended upon to be a run-producer for this Royals lineup.
Let’s examine the Decision Value rolling chart data for Vinnie this year against both lefties and righties individually.
From the end of May to June 15th, Vinnie had a rough stretch against righties where his Decision Value + dove and sat in the bottom 10th percentile of the league. Since June 15th, though, he’s not only been on an upward trend but has been pretty much the same hitter he was at the beginning of the season regarding decision-making.
Against lefties, though, his decision-making has been lackluster all season, as his season average Decision Value + has been barely above the 10th percentile. That’s a big reason why his Decision Value+ chart has looked more mediocre overall than expected.
Vinnie should make those adjustments against lefties in the second half, which will help his overall production. His expected wOBA is .341, 27 points higher than his actual wOBA. Furthermore, his rolling chart data showed some positive trends recently despite a dip toward the end of the season.
Vinnie’s long-term outlook against lefties is concerning. It wouldn’t be surprising to see him more platooned in the future, especially with Salvy able to handle first-base duties adequately.
For now, though, Royals fans should bet on a bounceback from Vinnie against lefties, which should help him have a much better second half in 2024.
Michael Wacha
Wacha was a big-time free-agent acquisition for the Royals this offseason. However, due to a foot injury and some inconsistent performances, he’s been overshadowed a bit by All-Stars Cole Ragans and Seth Lugo.
That said, I think Wacha may be due for a big second half with the Royals, especially with him seemingly fully recovered from the foot injury in early June.
In 16 appearances and 89.1 IP, Wacha has posted a 3.83 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. He also has a 3.73 FIP and accumulated a 1.6 fWAR. His fWAR is the third-best mark for Royals starting pitchers, better than Brady Singer (1.3) and Alec Marsh (1.0).
Wacha’s performance on the mound has gone under-appreciated due to the dominance of Ragans and Lugo and the surprising production from Singer and Marsh. However, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Wacha emerge as one of the better arms in the rotation in the second half, especially since his arm may be the freshest of the bunch.
A big key to Wacha’s success this year is that his changeup is better than ever, as seen in his PLV arsenal from 2024 and compared to last year’s chart.
Wacha’s overall PLV is 5.28, which is 15 points better than a season ago. His changeup, which ranked near the 99th percentile last year with a 5.75 mark, is even more effective in 2024. His changeup PLV this year is 5.98, 23 points better than his PLV in 2023.
Regarding the changeup’s Statcast metrics, it has a whiff rate of 35.1% and a put-away rate of 23.3% this season. The whiff rate is only down 0.8% from a year ago, and the put-away rate is 1.5% better than last season. He also allows an xwOBA of .229 on the changeup, a five-point improvement from 2023.
Here’s an example of Wacha’s changeup inducing Tampa’s Isaac Paredes to whiff badly in a recent series at the K.
Another positive trend with Wacha’s pitch mix is the improved effectiveness of his cutter and four-seamer. The cutter has seen a 15-point improvement in PLV, and the four-seamer has a 20-point improvement.
The two fastball pitches don’t have great surface-level metrics. The cutter has a 14.3% whiff rate and an xwOBA of .336, while the four-seamer has a 14.1% whiff rate and an xwOBA of .430. However, when he can locate both pitches properly, as seen in the clip GIF below, he can be effective with the offerings.
Wacha got off to a slow start with his command and stuff with the Royals. However, over the past month, he’s seen a positive trend in the whiff rates of his four-seamer and cutter, as seen in the swing and miss% chart below via Savant.
Wacha may not get the accolades that Ragans or Lugo will likely receive by the end of the season. However, Wacha could be critical to the Royals’ playoff outlook, as he could give them the dependable No. 3 guy with the experience and stuff to step up in big games, especially against playoff-caliber teams down the stretch.
Wacha will have his first test on Friday. A winning performance from Wacha could help the Royals jump-start the second half against the White Sox at Kauffman.
Photo Credit: Colin E. Braley | AP
Good analysis. I believe Wacha’s injury will factor in favorably in the second half. #3 starters are usually not pampered. They pile a bit more work than #1 or #2 starters who are expected to last the whole 40 start season, so they are managed closely. Your #3 gets flogged, you call up a AAA guy and test him against MLB hitting one or two starts and send him back down. Watcha may be hitting his stride as his opposing pitchers are starting to wane due to use.
Maikel is a relatively unheralded 24 year old player. Most 24 year olds are still in the minors and the bat is still developing until age 27. He’s also a middle infielder shoehorned into a corner infield batting role. Perhaps the expectations are a bit much. And, if the hitting stats indicate he’s doing better than most, I would try to have him make contact and develop power off of that as his confidence builds.
Pasquatch may just be a good platoon player. Which makes the Pratto question mark even bigger. It also explains the drafting of a 1b bat. Perez should be in the lineup as long as his health allows.
McArthur should not be happy as his role will be reduced by Harvey’s arrival. I feel we overpaid, much as we may overpay for Pham. He is a rental, not a solution.
Essentially, the key is +/-4 runs per game. We have to score 4 or more runs per game to have a chance to win, and our pitching staff must allow no more than 4 runs per 9 innings to keep the hitters “in the game”. As we saw in 2014 and 2015, there are ways to do that with a lineup that was somewhere between pedestrian (not quite bad to be mediocre) and a pitching staff headed by Jeremy Guthrie a good, yet not great pitcher. How the Royals shuffled lineups and starters, how they prioritized pitch count at bats to get to the weaker bullpen is a lesson on how to approach second half games. Particularly when the games become more important and managers may overuse relievers.
I’m not a fan of paying high for rental players. Pham is not a good ROI unless we get to the WS. Id rather juggle the outfielders we have and if we trade for anything, maube a decent 3b bat so Maikel can play at 2b. If Witt were a less gifted as, we could shift him to 3b and play a glove first ss. Those are not quite as scarce.
Anyways, I won’t take more of your time today with my musings. Have a great weekend!
Carlos
Thanks and agree with a lot of your points. It wouldn’t be surprising to me to see Wacha finish the year as one of the better starters. He definitely is pretty fresh after missing roughly a month and think he’s been getting in a groove after a slow start. I also think he has an incentive to do well, especially if he wants to opt out and net a bigger deal this offseason. Right now, I think it would be best to opt in, but that could change in a couple of months.
Maikel is an interesting to one because as you said, the expectations may have been a bit too high prior to this season (am just as guilty). Think the Acuna-Escobar family ties have probably inflated his stock and outlook as a player. He’s good, but he wasn’t a top 10 Royals prospect until 2023 and that was mostly due to a 2022 in Omaha when he doubled his HR total from NWA in nearly half the games. That probably was due more to the hitter-friendly environment of Werner if anything. I still think Maikel is valuable and should be a regular. But think the outlook now should be Nicky Lopez but with more power instead of a player who is locked in at the corner for years to come.
Vinnie is an interesting one. If we see more of the same over the next month, I wouldn’t be averse to bringing up Pratto and seeing what we got. Pratto seems to have gotten back to form after a bit of a “hangover” from the Spring Training hype. I truly believe that Pratto is a much better first baseman than Vinnie, but the bat needs to be there. I think a team with Vinnie and Pratto can be competitive long term.
Pham is an interesting one because I’m curious to see what it would take. If Harvey is a baseline, it seems like it may take a couple of prospects to get him. The system looks a lot healthier now after a pretty well-received draft from most prospect experts. It would stink to lose that momentum for a guy who may only be here for a few months. But the Royals need some help and preferably at leadoff and Pham could fit the ball, as he did in Arizona last year.
Thanks so much for the read and comment!