The Royals lost two of three in Boston to close out the first half of the 2024 season. They are currently 52-45 and sit two games behind the Red Sox in the Wild Card race and seven behind the Guardians in the AL Central.
Even though the Royals lost on Saturday and Sunday to the Red Sox, Kansas City made plenty of noise over the past two days. That included a big trade with the Washington Nationals that immediately upgraded their bullpen and the selection of two players on Sunday in the MLB Rule 4 (first-year player) Draft.
In this edition of the “Jottings,” I recap the Harvey trade, the Royals’ first day of the MLB Draft in Fort Worth, and outfielder Drew Waters’ outlook, whom I wrote about at “Farm to Fountains.“
Nationals Trade Hunter Harvey to Royals for Cayden Wallace and Competitive Balance A Pick
On Saturday, after the Royals’ 5-0 loss, news broke that the Royals acquired reliever Hunter Harvey from the Washington Nationals. I recapped the trade on “Farm to Fountains” below.
Harvey gives the Royals the power arm they have sorely needed this season. The bullpen ranks second-to-last in baseball in K/9 and last in Stuff+. Harvey sports a 10.00 K/9, a 110 Stuff+, and a 4.17 K/BB ratio. For context, his K/BB ratio would be the third-best mark of current Royals relievers, behind only Kris Bubic (5.00) and James McArthur (4.29).
Harvey’s ERA is high at 4.20. However, his FIP and xFIP are more tolerable at 3.16 and 3.22, respectively. He’s had a rough June and July, posting ERA marks of 6.97 and 10.13, respectively. That isn’t what Royals fans probably want to see from a reliever they just acquired, but it shows that a small sample size has been weighing down his overall line.
The long ball has been a big issue for Harvey lately, as he’s allowed a HR/9 of 1.74 in June and 1.69 in July. That said, his overall HR/9 is 0.80, so if he can get back to limiting those home runs with the Royals as he did in March through May, he should positively impact the Royals bullpen in the second half.
Harvey has four pitches in his pitch mix, with his four-seamer (63%) and splitter (23%) being his primary offerings. On a PLV end, his four-seamer and splitter also rank as his most effective offerings, with the curve and slider rating below average.
Considering that he throws the curve only 10% of the time and slides 4% of the time, it isn’t too bad that Harvey doesn’t sport excellent pitch quality with his breaking offerings. According to Savant, his four-seam fastball averages 97.8 MPH, and his splitter induces a whiff rate of 37.4%. Those two pitches can carry him to success alone.
Royals fans will be tempted to think that Harvey will immediately become the Royals’ closer, and he has had some success in the role (he had ten saves last year, filling in for Nationals closer Kyle Finnegan). However, I think Harvey will have a high-leverage setup role for now, with McArthur finding more successful lately as the Royals closer after a rough May.
Regardless of role, Harvey makes the Royals bullpen better and more equipped to challenge teams in the Wild Card race in the second half.
The Royals lose Cayden Wallace in the trade, who MLB Pipeline recently rated as a Top 10 3B prospect after the graduation of Cincinnati’s Noelvi Marte.
In addition to losing Wallace, the Royals traded their Competitive Balance A pick, the 39th overall. Yesterday, the Nationals selected California Golden Bear catcher Caleb Lomavita with that pick.
It’s tough to lose a prospect like Wallace, who has been solid in Northwest Arkansas and the prospect capital of the 39th overall pick. That said, Wallace has been hampered by a right oblique injury this year (he has played in only 34 games), and trading the pick seems to clear pool money space for Shields, whom the Royals were rumored to select initially at 39.
Time will tell if this deal works out, but considering the Royals needed a bullpen arm immediately, losing Wallace and the 39th pick was a sacrifice the Royals needed to take.
Royals Select Florida Power Hitter Jac Caglianone and Prep Pitcher David Shields
I will probably recap the Royals’ draft on Thursday, especially after showcasing a peculiar approach on day two (lots of college pitchers).
The Royals’ first two picks in the draft certainly are worth highlighting and celebrating.
With the sixth overall pick, the Royals selected two-way player Jac Caglianone from the University of Florida.
The Royals were initially connected to Arkansas pitcher Hagen Smith and California prep infielder Bryce Rainer. However, Smith went No. 5 to the White Sox, Nick Kurtz went No. 4 to the A’s, and Chase Burns went No. 2 to the Reds. All three of those picks went sooner than expected. Thus, the Royals were able to pounce on the talented Florida power hitter and pitcher, who was deemed a Top-5 talent before the draft.
Caglianone put up insane power numbers in his junior season in Gainesville. In 66 games and 316 plate appearances, he slashed .419/.544/.875 with a 1.419 OPS. He also hit 35 home runs and collected 72 RBI as the Gators’ primary run producer. Fondly known as “Cags” by Florida fans, he was known for hitting absolute nukes in college, much like this one below.
In addition to showcasing incredible power as a hitter, Cags also showcases some power arm potential, most likely as a reliever. He did post a 4.76 ERA in 16 starts and 73.2 IP, which isn’t great. His BB/9 was also high at 6.1. That said, according to scouts, he did have a 10.1 K/9 last year and a fastball that can touch 99 MPH.
According to Caglianone and Royals GM JJ Picollo in interviews last night, the Royals seem to be planning to continue developing Cags as a two-way player in the minor league system.
Cags immediately becomes the Royals’ top prospect, which shows how impressive the pick is, considering he hasn’t played a Minor League inning yet. Blake Mitchell has been solid in his first entire season at the Minor League level in Columbia. That said, he doesn’t have the power upside of Caglianone.
The only issue with Cags is that he can be a bit of a free-swinger. However, when looking at some of his Stacast percentiles, his power, and hard-hit metrics more than makeup for those questionable chase metrics.
At pick 41, the Royals selected David Shields, a left-handed prep pitcher out of Mt. Lebanon, Pennsylvania.
Shield, a University of Miami commit, is one of the most intriguing prep pitchers in the draft. He’s only 17 years old, so he’s extremely young. Despite his youth, he was dominant at the high school level and is known for his supreme strike zone command, according to scouts.
Royals Scouting Director Brian Bridges seemed to sing similar praises about Shields in their presser last night. He noted that Shields’ command was the primary reason they drafted him, and they feel like their pitching development team can help build up his stuff and velocity as he gets older.
Some fans may be hesitant about the Royals selecting a cold-weather state prep pitcher like Shields, especially after 2021 first-round pick Frank Mozzicato, who hailed from Connecticut, has failed to make significant progress this season in Quad Cities.
On the other hand, Shields already has a fastball in the 92-94 MPH range and can add more velocity as he gets older. Furthermore, Bridges’ comments about pitching development show that the Royals are not just more equipped to develop pitchers as an organization. They are also identifying suitable candidates to benefit from that development in the draft.
The selections of Cags and Shields are signs that this Royals organization is trending in the right direction regarding the draft under JJ Picollo.
Is Drew Waters’ Time With Royals Coming to an End?
With the drafting of Caglianone and the Royals likely to be active players in the trade market over the next half month, the future of outfielder Drew Waters looks hazier than ever.
I talked about Waters’ issues over the past two years and his outlook with the Royals organization in a recent post on “Farm to Fountains.”
Waters has been on a tear recently in Omaha. In July, he’s slashing .333/.422/.744 in 13 games and 29 at-bats with the Storm Chasers. That includes three home runs and 11 RBI. He has struck out 12 times, but he has six walks, which gives him a BB/K ratio of 0.50 this month.
The 25-year-old outfielder had a particularly standout week against the Toledo Mud Hens, as he was recently named International League Player of the Week.
The Royals haven’t given Waters much chance at the Major League level. He has only eight plate appearances in three games with the Royals this season. In my post on “Farm to Fountains”, I write about what went wrong for the once-promising outfielder who came over from the Braves in a trade back in July of 2022.
Granted, one never knows what could happen to Waters. An injury could bring him back to Kansas City, and he could take advantage of it (though he didn’t seem to take advantage enough when he was called up initially after Renfroe got hurt).
On the flip side, it seems time is running out for Waters with the Royals. It wouldn’t be surprising to see him as a throw-in to a possible trade, resulting in him being in another organization by early August.
Photo Credit: Matt Pendleton-USA TODAY Sports
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