For the first couple of months of play, no Royals position player was more maligned by fans than Hunter Renfroe.
One of the most significant free-agent acquisitions this offseason by Royals GM JJ Picollo, Renfroe got off to a brutal start in April and for the first half of May. On May 19th, after an 0-for-4 game against the Oakland Athletics, Renfroe had a slash line of .153/.228/.250 with a .478 OPS for the season.
Thus, many fans were questioning whether Renfore was worth the two-year $13 million deal he inked this offseason (with the second year being a player option) and if the Royals made the right decision in letting outfielder Edward Olivares go for a marginal outfield prospect from the Pirates.
On May 19th, Olivares had a slash line of .237/.295/.423 with a .718 OPS with the Pirates. Thus, the Renfroe acquisition (and subsequent success of Olivares in Pittsburgh) seemed like the typical “backfire move” for the Royals, where they could’ve had an internal solution to their outfield situation for much less money.
However, as seen in the Fangraphs data table below, both players have trended in the opposite direction since May 19th.
In 115 plate appearances since May 19th, Renfroe is posting 160 wRC+ and 1.0 fWAR. He has boosted his power over that timespan, as he has five home runs and sports a .255 ISO, a sign of his improvement in overall power after a cold start.
On the flip side, in 91 plate appearances, Olivares has a 48 wRC+ and -0.7 fWAR. Olivares and Renfroe are not traditionally strong defensive outfielders (especially on a range end). However, according to the difference in Def, Olivares has been tremendously worse (three runs specifically) than Renfroe over this sample size. Furthermore, the former Royals outfielder hasn’t shown any modicum of power since mid-May, as evidenced by his zero home runs and paltry .013 ISO.
As a result of this cold stretch and other deserving outfield options on the 40-man roster, the Pirates recently optioned Olivares to Triple-A.
Thus, Renfroe has been a better option for the Royals in right field now than Olivares would have.
However, what is Renfroe’s outlook for the Royals for the remainder of the season and perhaps in 2025 (if he should exercise his player option)?
Hard Hits and Launch Angle the Difference for Renfroe
Since coming to Kansas City this season, Renfroe has improved his approach at the plate and become a disciplined hitter.
As of Thursday, Renfroe has a 0.52 BB/K ratio. That’s a 17-point improvement from a year ago and 21 points better than his career 0.31 BB/K ratio. A big reason for that improvement could be him not just swinging less but chasing less as well.
In 2024, the 32-year-old outfielder has an O-Swing% of 26.7% and a Swing% of 43.1%. To compare, he had an O-Swing% of 33.5% and Swing% of 51% with the Angels and Reds in 2023. Furthermore, his swing aggression has ranked around the 20th percentile of the league, based on Swing Aggression PLV data.
By swinging less overall, Renfroe has done a much better job in his decision-making at the plate this season. His Decision Value+ has consistently been in the upper percentiles of the league, and he is making more contact as well, based on his Contact+ rolling PLV chart data.
Renfroe’s career contact rate is 73.7%. This season, it is 78.9%. That contact rate spike, combined with the stellar nature of his Decision Value and Contact Ability rolling charts, should encourage Royals fans who may be skeptical about Renfroe’s performance at the plate since the middle of May.
So if the contact and decision-making at the plate have been stable for most of the season, even amidst his early season struggles, what has been the primary difference for Renfroe since May 19th?
His improvement in hitting the ball with more authority (i.e., hard-hit rate) and the launch angle he’s been producing on batted balls over the last couple of months could be seen as the culprits for Renfroe’s offensive success.
Granted, his hard-hit rate on an overall end doesn’t look impressive. He’s producing a hard-hit rate of 34.6% for the season, which is 5.8% lower than his career average and ranks him in the 23rd percentile of the league. However, his rolling hard-hit rate chart has seen steady improvement since mid-May, with him maintaining hard-hit rates from the 100th batted ball mark to the 170th batted ball mark.
Now, Renfroe has seen a recent regression in the hard-hit rate. Since the 170th batted ball mark, he is producing a hard-hit rate similar to what he made at the beginning of the season (which wasn’t good).
Royals fans may think that his overall performance would also slow down with this regression in hard-hit rate. That hasn’t been the case, however. Even though his hard-hit rate has declined, his wOBA over that same period has continued to show positive progression and maintain a trend above the MLB average.
Renfroe has still been a productive hitter on a batted-ball end, even when the hard contact starts to dip a bit. His Power+ metrics have also seen some positive increases, but those trends are nowhere near as impressive as what he’s done on Decision Value or Contact Ability at the end of this year.
How is that possible?
It’s because he’s been able to launch the ball better in the past few months. Here’s a look at Renfroe’s LA Sweet-Spot% rolling chart and notice the recent turnaround at the 120th batted-ball mark.
Since the 150th batted-ball mark, Renfroe has maintained an LA Sweet-Spot% above the MLB average. By hitting more line drives and productive fly balls (which LA Sweet-Spot% helps measure), he’s been able to produce 196 and 118 wRC+ marks in June and July, respectively.
His double against Zach Eflin of the Rays on July 4th at Kauffman Stadium is a perfect example of Renfroe utilizing his strong launch angle skills recently to get a base hit despite the batted ball not generating enough exit velocity (93.2 MPH) to be classified as a “hard-hit.”
At the beginning of the year, Renfroe seemed to be trying to be a better “contact” hitter with the Royals. However, he sacrificed hard hits and his launch angle on batted balls to acquire those gains in contact.
Those hard hits and well-launched balls have returned over the past two months, helping him boost his production recently.
Renfroe Performing in Different Areas of the Zone
When Renfroe’s performance this year in different areas of the strike zone is compared to last season, some peculiar trends emerge.
Renfroe has slightly lagged on pitches inside the zone, specifically zones 1, 4, and 11 this season. However, he’s been a much better hitter on pitches in zones 2, 3, and 5, which is an intriguing development, as seen in the zone wOBA chart comparison below.
Renfroe seems to be performing well on those pitches up and away. Furthermore, in addition to his wOBA numbers not being as strong on pitches inside, his barrel numbers on pitches in that same zone have seen even more alarming declines from a season ago.
In 2023, Renfroe posted barrel rates over 10 percent in seven zones (1, 2, 4, 5, 7, 8, and 12). This year, he’s only posting barrel rates over 10 percent in four zones (3, 5, 8, and 12). That said, he’s posting a barrel rate of 25% in zone 3, which is a massive improvement over the zero percent barrel rate he had in that zone last season.
Below is an example of Renfroe barreling a home run over the right-center field wall at Progressive Field in Cleveland. This pitch in zone 3 from Triston McKenzie isn’t a pitch Renfroe likely hit the other way a season ago, especially with his pull rate of 48.7% in 2023.
Then again, though, it’s not like Renfroe, despite succeeding more in areas like zone 3, is any less of a pull hitter in 2024 than he was last season.
Renfroe’s pull rate is 48%, which is only 0.7% less than a season ago and 7.5% higher than his mark in 2022. His spray chart hit data also appears quite similar in composition to his spray chart from 2023.
Renfroe still pulls the ball a lot and does not hit singles to the opposite field. When he does get base hits to the opposite field, they tend to be of the extra-base variety, much like last year. Therefore, while Renfroe’s performance on the outer edge has been encouraging, it hasn’t seemed to produce tangible results in terms of base hits just yet.
It will be worth watching Renfroe’s spray chart as the season progresses.
Will he see more base hits to the right field or right-center side? Or will Renfroe’s batted ball approach correct itself, and he’ll be back to pulling balls again but with more launch than in April and May?
What Should the Royals Do With Renfroe For Remainder of Year (And Next)?
Regarding other Royals corner outfielders, Renfroe has been head and shoulders the most productive one since May 19th.
Looking at their numbers over that time frame, Royals fans can see that Renfroe leads not only wRC+ but also fWAR.
MJ Melendez has hit one more home run than Renfroe over that sample size, and Nelson Velazquez has matched Renfroe on a home run end. That said, Renfroe’s 160 wRC+ is 72 points higher than the next-highest corner outfielder, which is surprisingly Garrett Hampson. His fWAR is also 0.6 wins higher than Hampson, who also ranks second in this group in that category.
Based on this recent trend in performance, it seems like Renfroe should feel pretty safe about his job in the Royals outfield for the remainder of the season. Furthermore, the projections also appear optimistic about Renfroe’s outlook for the rest of the year.
ZiPS is projecting seven more home runs, 25 RBI, a slash line of .243/.308/.426, and a wRC+ of 103 in 204 plate appearances. That would result in 15 home runs, 55 RBI, and a slash line of .234/.304/.411 with a wRC+ of 98 in 451 plate appearances by the end of the 2024 campaign. Furthermore, ZiPS also projects Renfroe to finish with a fWAR of 0.7, which would be 0.3 higher than his mark in 2023.
Considering how poorly Renfroe started the season, those numbers would be much welcomed, especially since he’s pretty much a guaranteed negative value defensively at this point in his career (though his arm prevents it from being truly terrible). Conversely, Renfroe is making $5.5 million this year and could exercise a player option to guarantee another $7.5 million next season.
If he does finish with a 0.7 fWAR, he would have accumulated a 1.1 fWAR over the past two seasons. If he rejects the option and tests free agency, he likely won’t command anything close to the $7.5 million he would get if he stayed in Kansas City another year.
At 33 years old, Renfroe’s health is unlikely to improve much in 2025. Furthermore, his slow start this year was probably caused by his back injury in Spring Training, and typically, players don’t become less injury-prone as they age. It tends to be the inverse.
With the Royals needing more consistent pop in the lineup, it may be hard for Picollo to part ways with Renfroe by the Trade Deadline. With him surging in the right direction, would a team be more willing to take on his “bad” contract, knowing that his skill set could be better utilized in a more home-run-friendly ballpark?
I heard some rumblings from some people in Cubs circles that the Cubs would possibly be interested in trading away Cody Bellinger in a package involving Renfroe as the main piece. It sounds like the Cubs are looking to begin a rebuilding process and want to unload the money from Bellinger’s contract (he’s due to make $27.5 million this year, and he has two player options for similar amounts in 2025 and 2026).
In a recent interview with Josh Vernier at 610 AM, Royals owner John Sherman said he would be more than willing to absorb payroll to improve the team in the short and long term.
Renfroe’s hitting skill set would better fit Wrigely than Kauffman.
According to Savant’s xHR metrics, he would have ten home runs at Wrigley this season if he played all his games in the North Side (compared to eight). Renfroe is also familiar with the NL Central, as he has played for both the Brewers and Reds in his career.
Unfortunately, Bellinger landed on the IL due to a finger injury, which will at least shut him down through the All-Star Break.
That could hurt the possibility of a Bellinger trade to Kansas City, but it certainly isn’t dead by any means, especially if Bellinger can return by sometime in August. Furthermore, the Royals could acquire Bellinger with the idea that he could be someone they could make part of their hitting core in 2025 with Bobby Witt, Jr. and Salvador Perez.
Even if Bellinger doesn’t opt in and tests free agency again, the Royals would’ve shredded Bellinger’s deal and the $7.5 million Renfroe owed in 2025. That money could be used on another free-agent outfielder or an extension candidate.
Bellinger may be a farfetched fantasy due to the financial difference between his and Renfroe’s contracts (roughly $22 million). That said, Renfroe could be a trade candidate (or centerpiece of a trade deal) who could help the Royals acquire a bigger-name player or a struggling player with upside but has a bad contract on a team looking to shed payroll. It’s possible the White Sox could do this with Luis Robert, too, but he will be more expensive due to his contract having club options rather than player options like Bellinger’s).
Regardless of the team, this possibility will only become more realistic if Renfroe continues to surge and rebound at the plate after the All-Star Break.
Of course, the Royals have struggled to be too “loyal” to their players, even if it would make sense to trade them sooner rather than later.
Picollo has undoubtedly proved to be different from his predecessor in many ways, with his approach to analytics and his more transactional approach roster-wise being the prime differences.
The Royals are winning now, and Renfroe is helping, but as Sherman said, the Royals are looking to continue to win not just in the second half of 2024 but in 2025 and 2026 as well.
Striking the iron while it’s hot with Renfroe could help them accomplish that goal Sherman has set out for the remainder of 2024 and beyond.
Photo Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports
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