The Royals had Monday off as they headed toward the eastern side of Missouri for the I-70 Series (hopefully to get some Gioia’s Deli on the Hill). However, that didn’t stop a wave of trade news from touching the Kansas City organization.
A position player whose name has been more circulated in trade talks recently is Jazz Chisholm, Jr., the Marlins centerfielder who was an All-Star in 2022. Craig Mish of the Miami Herald wrote a column today that mentioned a few teams that could acquire Chisholm by the deadline, and the Royals were listed as one of those teams.
Here’s what MLB Trade Rumors writer Steve Adams summarized from Mish’s article (which is paywalled; I support local writers as I subscribe to the KC Star, but I’m not sure I want to shell out for Miami Herald coverage).
All three of the potential teams listed in Mish’s report stand as clear fits in a theoretical Chisholm deal. Royals general manager J.J. Picollo has been open about his desire to add a bat capable of playing both the infield and the outfield — a need Chisholm would fill nicely. The Royals have fairly even platoon splits as a team, but the bulk of the team is right-handed — including Kansas City’s two best hitters, Bobby Witt Jr. and Salvador Perez. First baseman Vinnie Pasquantino and second baseman Michael Massey (who’s been limited to just 142 plate appearances due to injury) are the only left-handed bats on the roster who have turned in average or better production, by measure of wRC+.
“Report: “Growing Belief” That Marlins Will Trade Jazz Chisholm Jr.” by Steve Adams; MLB Trade Rumors
In 365 plate appearances this year with the Marlins, Chisholm has a slash line of .255/.326/.407 with a .733 OPS. He has ten home runs this year and 17 stolen bases as Miami’s primary leadoff man, and he is also posting a 1.4 fWAR, which leads all Marlins position players.
Considering Maikel Garcia’s struggles as the Royals’ leadoff hitter this year and the organization’s unwillingness to move Bobby Witt, Jr. to the top spot due to history, Chisholm theoretically makes sense for Kansas City. Furthermore, Chisholm has a history of playing infield and outfield, a characteristic that JJ Picollo and manager Matt Quatraro have valued over the past couple of years in their acquisitions (i.e., Garrett Hampson and Adam Frazier, for example).
According to Roster Resource payroll data, Chisholm makes $2.625 million this season. That is barely higher than the salaries of Hampson and Frazier, who have fWAR marks of 0.6 and -0.5, respectively. The only caveat is that Chisholm still has two years remaining in arbitration, so if he finishes the whole season and hits his projected rest-of-season fWAR of 1.3 (at the very least), he could be due for a significant raise this offseason.
The 26-year-old Bahamian player has long been an intriguing fan favorite over the past few seasons. His personality is the antithesis of Chicago’s Tommy Pham, another possible outfielder connected to the Royals in trade rumors. Is Chisholm worth acquiring, and what could a trade package look like?
Let’s dive into the pros and cons of a possible Chisholm deal and what it could take should the Royals go down that path.
Power and Leadoff Experience Would Help the Royals
Chisholm is an intriguing candidate for the Royals because he’s an athletic multi-position player who can offer speed on the basepaths and power with the bat when he’s locked in at the plate.
Chisholm has ten home runs this year, and based on Statcast data, all 10 of his home runs this year would’ve been out at Kauffman Stadium. Thus, he isn’t benefitting from a “homer-friendly” park and wouldn’t see any regression in transitioning to Kansas City.
Furthermore, his hit spray chart has been impressive, especially on the home run variety.
Here’s an example of one of the home runs he hit in San Diego off of Padres starter Michael King in May. Safe to say, it would’ve been out of the K easily.
The Marlins outfielder has consistently demonstrated natural power in his five seasons in Miami.
Since debuting during the COVID-shortened 2020 season, Chisholm has hit 63 career home runs in 389 games and has had double-digit home runs each season since 2021. According to Savant, he also has a career barrel rate of 11% and is sporting a 10.9% barrel rate this year, which puts him in the 77th percentile of the league.
On a Power+ end via PLV, Chisholm has seen some regression lately, thanks to a cold streak since the Royals series (.188 slugging since June 24th). However, he’s consistently been between the 75th and the 90th percentile in Power+ for the season. That would be sorely welcome in a Royals lineup that has struggled to find consistent run production beyond Bobby Witt, Jr., Salvador Perez, and Vinnie Pasquantino.
Another positive aspect Chisholm would bring to the Royals would be the ability to give at least league-average production or better at the leadoff spot.
This season, the Royals rank 29th in baseball in wRC+ at leadoff with a 69 wRC+. While Garcia has gotten most of the leadoff at-bats for the Royals this year, Frazier and Nick Loftin have also seen some opportunities at leadoff and haven’t fared much better. Not getting much production at leadoff has been challenging for the Royals’ offense, even with Witt, Salvy, and Vinnie doing damage behind him.
Chisholm isn’t an “elite” leadoff hitter by any means, but he’s been better than Garcia, Frazier, and Loftin.
According to Fangraphs splits data, Chisholm has a career 99 wRC+ at the leadoff spot in 709 plate appearances. This season, he has a 101 wRC+ and 0.31 BB/K ratio as the Marlins’ leadoff hitter. While that isn’t eye-popping, it’s better than his 87 wRC+ and 0.19 BB/K ratio in 2023.
Chisholm hasn’t been as efficient on the basepaths this year as he has 11 stolen bases but has gotten caught seven times as the Marlins’ leadoff man. That said, he was 12 of 14 on stolen base attempts last year, so one has to wonder if he would improve under better coaching. According to Savant, the Royals rank 3rd in “runner runs” this year, while the Marlins rank 18th.
Perhaps Vance Wilson, Damon Hollins, and the Royals coaching staff could help Chisholm improve his baserunning approach in Kansas City. That would help his value and financial outlook for next offseason and help the Royals gain more wins.
Plate Discipline and Fielding Are Red Flags
Chisholm has long struggled to have a good eye at the plate in his five-year career.
According to Fangraphs, his career BB/K ratio is 0.27. Of Royals hitters with ten or more plate appearances this year, his career BB/K ratio would be better than only Dairon Blanco (0.23), Hampson (0.19), and Michael Massey (0.13). He has improved his BB/K ratio to 0.35 this season. However, that would only be better than MJ Melendez (0.29), Kyle Isbel (0.29), and Nelson Velazquez (0.31), who is currently in Omaha.
It’s not just the BB/K ratio where Chisholm lags. His Decision Value+ metrics have also been unimpressive this year, which isn’t exactly what one wants to see from their primary leadoff hitter.
After showing a solid approach at the plate in the first month of play (he also had a 0.44 BB/K ratio in March/April), his Decision Value+ has plummeted since May 1st. His Decision Value+ season average has been just under the 25th percentile.
Poor decision-making at the plate has hurt Chisholm this year and throughout his career. However, his inability to make consistent contact has kept him from reaching “superstar” status with the Marlins.
Over his career, Chisholm has a career contact rate of 71%. This year, he has improved his contact rate to 73% and his Z-Contact rate (contact on pitches in the strike zone) to 81.1%. The latter is a 6.6% improvement from a season ago. However, it is still 4.2% below the league average.
His Contact+ rolling PLV chart data also shows Chisholm to be a slightly below-average hitter when making contact at the Major League level this year. To make matters worse, he seems to be trending in the wrong direction since June 1st.
Hence, it’s hard to trust Chisholm to be a legitimate leadoff hitter for the Royals when he struggles so much in plate discipline and contact. Then again, it’s not like the Royals have many options. So Chisholm wouldn’t have much competition for the role if he came to Kansas City.
Considering his power and baserunning upside, Royals fans might think that Chisholm is worth pursuing if the price is right. However, another huge red flag is his defense.
Last year, the Marlins moved Chisholm to the outfield, hoping that his skills would be a better fit there after years of mixed results at shortstop and second base.
He did pretty well as a centerfielder in 2023 despite not having much experience in the Minors there (only five career Minor League games in the outfield). That said, he’s taken a step back in centerfield in 2024, based on OAA data.
DRS has been much more pessimistic about his defensive performance in the outfield.
Last year, he was nine runs below average in center field, according to DRS. This year, that mark is already six runs below average. Isbel (+4 DRS), Melendez (+3 DRS), and even Frazier (+2 DRS) and Renfroe (+2 DRS) would all be better options defensively than Chisholm on a DRS end.
It’s possible that Chisholm could find more value at second base. However, he hasn’t played there since 2022, and the Royals already have better defensive options at the keystone in Massey and Garcia.
Is Chisholm Worth It for the Royals?
Would Chisholm help the Royals?
Yes, I believe he would. At the very least, he’s a league-average player who could be affordable for the Royals this year and the next two. He’s also the athletic type that the Royals love and his budding power would allow him to transition easily to Kauffman Stadium.
On the flip side, he has questionable plate decision and contact skills, and it’s hard to see where he fits defensively on this roster as it currently is constructed. He’s a downgrade from every option defensively (even Hunter Renfroe, which says something), and I am not sure I would be okay with him displacing Massey or Garcia at the keystone.
Furthermore, I am unsure what the Royals would give up for Chisholm’s services.
I joked that Drew Waters and Nick Pratto would be two players I would be okay trading away for Chisholm, and some thought I was being serious. I know that Waters and Pratto don’t have much value, but that’s the point of my Tweet: I am not okay with the Royals giving up serious assets for Chisholm in any capacity.
I am not just talking about prospects like Blake Mitchell or Gavin Cross. Those prospects would be off-limits for Marlins GM Peter Bendix.
Some have suggested giving up some lower-level, Complex league prospects. I wouldn’t even be okay with that, especially considering the gains outfielder Asbel Gonzalez and catcher Ramon Ramirez have made in Arizona lately.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Bendix asks for a player on our Major League roster. After all, there was a rumor this past offseason that the Royals were on the cusp of trading Vinnie Pasquantino for Jesus Luzardo at the MLB Winter Meetings.
Thankfully, John Sherman gave Picollo the green light to go after Michael Wacha instead. It’s bad enough to imagine losing Vinnie, but it’s even worse when you see that Luzardo is currently on the IL and won’t return until mid-August.
I don’t think the Marlins would ask for Vinnie again. However, would they inquire about Massey, Garcia, or even Melendez, a local kid from South Florida? As bad as MJ’s numbers have been, his Stacast metrics have been comparable to Chisholm’s.
I guess the Royals would need to add another player or two (and maybe the Marlins would add a reliever to sweeten the return), but they seem likely to want to acquire a young MLB player with whom they can have long-term control. Otto Lopez and Vidal Brujan are okay, but I could see Massey and Garcia supplanting them quickly.
It’s certainly a tempting choice with Chisholm. I see why some fans would want to acquire him, especially with his personality and potential. However, he has some questionable red flags on the field, and that’s not even counting his struggles to stay healthy over his career.
Chisholm has only played over 100 games once in his five seasons at the Major League level.
For a team with playoff aspirations in 2024 and beyond, the Royals must invest in a sure thing (or at least a “predictable” thing). I am unsure if Chisholm is for the Marlins or will be for the Royals or whatever team acquires him this year.
The Royals may be better off giving another guy in Triple-A a chance (either Waters or Pratto or John Rave, who’s tearing it up with Omaha as their leadoff hitter) for the time being than giving up any prospects or players with upside on their MLB roster for Chisholm.
Photo Credit: Lynne Sladky | AP
I wholeheartedly agree. I looked at Chisolm recently and I didn’t like him. The raw numbers are not bad, but after reading your research on him, I believe his problem, much like Waters’, is his ego. A lot of these athletic “toolsy” young players buy into the hype that they are MLB players/hitters. They forget that the guy on the mound is MLB too. Chisholm started the season well enough. Seems pitching adjusted to him, and he failed to adjust to the change in pitching. He has yet to eat his slice of humble pie and figure out how to counter. Could he be better? Probably yes. Is that peak high enough? No
Chisholm is, IMPO, interchangeable with Waters, but Waters has more upside, and is probably a better fielding outfielder.
I think Jazz is a little more accomplished than Waters. But I get what you’re saying, I think they have some impressive tools, but they have some serious flaws in their game. Waters has unfortunately been more exposed, but I would be curious to see what Waters could do this year with a more extended shot. If the Royals don’t trade him by deadline, I’m hoping he can maybe get more regular playing time in August through the end of the season. He has some upside, and as you said, Waters has already proven to be a better defensive outfielder than Jazz.
Thx esp. for the deep dive. Have always been curious re: Chisholm but see now he would clearly NOT be a good solution for the long term.
Now that postseason hopes are quickly fading I am very sad that no moves were made earlier to solve the leadoff problem. I still believe an
immediate solution might be to have Isbel lead off against righties with Garcia (and his wonderful glove) moved to nine-hole. Against lefthanders, Hampson leadoff and CF, Loftin to 2b and eighth, Garcia to 3b and ninth. Too late for Rave to be an experiment at leadoff?
I think if Isbel continues to finish the month strong, he could be a leadoff option in August, especially if they can’t find an option through a trade. I think he’s comfortable in the spot and you don’t want to mess that up for now (seems like Q is more keen on spots in the order this year, as Bobby Witt hasn’t been taken out of the two hole at all this year).
I would like to see Rave get a shot. That might not be until September and the Royals would have to be on the outside looking in when it comes to a playoff spot. That said, if CJ Alexander got a shot, I think Rave deserves the same chance.
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