The Royals begin their road trip with some big news. This afternoon, they announced a couple of roster moves before their weekend series in Denver against the Colorado Rockies.
The move was disappointing for Alexander, who failed to do much in his call-up last week, and Hernandez, who still struggles with control and command despite sporting some of the best stuff on this Royals team. Also, Altavilla’s move to the 60-Day IL may be a sign that not only is his season done, but his career may be as well, especially at his age (31 years old).
However, as Aram mentioned in the Quote Tweet above, Walter Pennington’s promotion from Omaha was the biggest news from this announcement.
As many of you who follow this blog know, I was able to interview Walter in May, along with Preston Farr and Jared Perkins of Farm to Fountains. Farm to Fountains tweeted the full interview shortly after news of Pennington’s promotion.
Pennington’s promotion to Kansas City has been deserved for quite some time.
In 32 appearances and 53.2 IP with the Storm Chasers, Pennington posted a 2.35 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, and 3.26 FIP. In Omaha, the 26-year-old lefty demonstrated excellent command, as evidenced by his 35.3% K% and K-BB% of 26.5%. Even though he was undrafted, the Colorado School of Mines product has been one of the International League’s best relievers, especially in strikeouts.
The Royals bullpen has been looking for help for a long time this season. On Friday, they rank 24th in ERA and 28th in WHIP. They particularly struggle to strike batters out, ranking 30th in K/9. Manager Matt Quatraro and the Royals front office hope Pennington can boost the Royals bullpen in this area.
What should Royals fans expect from Pennington, who may make his MLB debut in front of his family and friends at Coors Field sometime this weekend? Is Pennington the answer that the Royals bullpen has been looking for? Or is Pennington just a part of what needs to be a more extensive solution for this struggling group of relievers?
Let’s look at Pennington’s profile and what to expect from the left-handed reliever at the Major League level.
Pennington’s Slider is Go-To Pitch
Pennington’s primary relies on his slider, which he threw 52% of the time in Omaha. It makes sense that Pennington leaned heavily on the breaking offering, especially when Royals fans see the results from the pitch this season with the Storm Chasers via Savant.
Pennington’s slider was a dominant pitch in multiple categories. Not only did it generate a whiff rate of 48.1% and K% of 44.9%, but hitters only produced a hard-hit rate of 31.7% and a barrel rate of 3.2% on the pitch as well. Thus, it’s unsurprising that Triple-A hitters only produced an xwOBA of .187 on the slider.
As seen in their respective zone charts, Pennington seemed to succeed in multiple areas with the slider on both a K% end and an xwOBA end.
The slider was a bit of a “feast or famine” offering in the upper part of the strike zone, especially zone 2. Pennington had a K% of 50% in that zone with the slider, but he also allowed a .414 xwOBA on the pitch in that same area.
Thus, when Pennington hangs the slider, it can be a pitch that can be batted productively. The slider pitch quality via PLV metrics demonstrates that his slider can be susceptible to productive contact if not located efficiently.
Pennington sports a good arm-side break and PLV with the slider. However, he’s below the median in nearly every other category, which shows that the pitch could have some trouble at the Major League level if he can’t throw it where he wants and in the counts he wants.
Last night was a prime example, as he blew a save opportunity in 0.2 IP in the eighth against the Iowa Cubs in Des Moines. I attended the game and was impressed not only by the ballpark experience of Principal Park but also by the general vibe of Des Moines on gameday.
Back to baseball, below is a look at his slider pitch description zone chart via Savant from last night.
Pennington generated two whiffs on the slider when located low and on the glove side. However, he made two mistakes in the zone that resulted in runs. That included a double from Iowa’s Owen Caissie that gave the Cubs the lead for good.
At the Major League level, Pennington’s slider should still be leaned heavily on. It’s his most effective pitch, and he is comfortable commanding it efficiently as well. The 5.21 PLV also has some solid features, even if it may not be elite.
Nonetheless, the shaky recent slider command is hopefully just a blip on Pennington’s radar. If the slider command isn’t there in his tenure with the Royals, Pennington could be down as quickly to Omaha as Alexander.
The Cutter and Sinker Are “Flood the Zone” Pitches
While Pennington primarily relies on his slider, he also throws a cutter and sinker a fair amount. According to PLV data, he throws the cutter 24.6% of the time and the sinker 20.7% of the time.
Here are the pitch characteristics of both fastball offerings via PLV.
As Royals fans can see above, the cutter has an xZone% (expected strike zone percentage) of 57.9%, and his sinker xZone% is 63.3%. The fact that Pennington can throw his main two fastball offerings only adds to the effectiveness of his slider. Hitters will chase the slider out of the zone if they constantly see the cutter and sinker get called strikes in the zone.
The cutter also complements the slider well due to the similar arm-side break. When Pennington has located it low and glove-side, he effectively limits productive contact and generates a good number of strikeouts (especially on chase pitches out of the zone).
The only area in the strike zone where hitters have effectively hit Pennington’s cutter is in zone 5, which is middle-middle. Typically, hitters do a lot of damage on that pitch regardless of whether it is, so the results could be worse, which shows Pennington’s cutter’s potential and natural quality. The cutter has also been a productive pitch on the arm-side part of the zone when it comes to striking batters out, as evidenced by the high K rates in zones 3 and 6.
Pennington’s sinker finds success differently from his cutter on an xwOBA and K% end.
The sinker isn’t as successful in low and glove-side areas as the slider or cutter. He’s giving up a .532 xwOBA in zone 7 and a .691 in zone 13. He is only generating a 20% K% in zone 7 and a zero K% in zone 13.
Pennington has been more effective in the upper part of the strike zones and edges with the sinker. He only gives up a .057 xwOBA in zone 4 (glove side) and .064 xwOBA in zone 6 (arm side). He also has a 100% K% in zones 1 and 3. That shows that his sinker can be a go-to pitch in strike zone areas where the cutter and slider may not be as effective.
The main issue with his sinker is that it doesn’t generate impressive velocity. It only averages 91 MPH and doesn’t get ramped up in any part of the zone, as seen in his pitch speed chart via Savant.
The hardest Pennington has averaged with his sinker is 91.7 MPH in zone 1. That may work against inferior Four-A hitters in the International League but could be easy fodder for higher-quality hitters in the Major Leagues.
What Will Pennington’s Role Be With the Royals Initially?
Many Royals fans may be tempted to think that Pennington should be trusted immediately into high-leverage situations in Kansas City.
Preston Farr of “Farm to Fountains” is right to encourage caution with Pennington, especially in his first couple of outings at the Major League level.
Pennington is a student of the game, and there’s no question that his mechanical engineering background helps him embrace the analytical part of the game, especially when it comes to adjusting his pitch mix. Based on our conversation with him earlier this year, it’s evident that he understands the data the pitching development team shows him daily and knows what goals to set for himself to be an effective reliever.
Pennington doesn’t have the natural stuff or tools of Will Klein or even John McMillon. However, he has gotten the call-up this time over those two because he throws strikes and knows how to effectively get ahead against opposing hitters. The Royals need that skill set, especially since the Royals relievers have gotten in trouble this season due to their struggles with walks (they rank 24th in BB/9 as a bullpen).
Nonetheless, seeing how Pennington and his arsenal translate to the Major League level will be interesting. He is too good for Triple-A. That said, can his craftiness and command succeed against MLB hitters? We don’t know yet, but he will get the opportunity to do so starting this weekend (hopefully) in his home state of Colorado.
The Royals need bullpen help, and the leash will likely be short to Pennington because they are still in the thick of a postseason race. Pennington will likely not be the only bullpen move the Royals will make this week. Kris Bubic must also be activated because his rehab assignment is up this weekend.
However, if Pennington can transition his numbers and skills from Omaha to Kansas City, then the Royals could have a reliever that can help both this season and in the long term.
Photo Credit: Minda Haas Kuhlmann
[…] Kevin O’Brien at Royals Reporter writes about what fans can expect from Pennington. […]
Mr. O\’B, Very happy that Walter P got to get his feet wetbefore going back up I-29 but I fail to see whyhe had to go when Chris (guaranteed walk perinning) Stratton remains. Also, haven\’t seen any YouTube podcastsrecently. Are they being aired elsewhere?I miss the input and analysis from you guys.
I think the Pennington demotion was an option game. Pennington was unavailable after back to back outings (in Des Moines and then Colorado) and he had options. I know Anderson has options too, but I wonder with his veteran status that becomes a little more complicated.
Unfortunately we have been on a hiatus due to some scheduling issues. We are hoping to get it started again, but we will have to wait for now. I will make sure to keep everyone posted once we get going again!