The Royals lost a rough four-game series on the road to the Twins, highlighted by the Royals blowing a four-run lead on Thursday in a 7-6 loss. The bullpen gave up four runs at the bottom of the 6th, eventually putting the game out of reach. As expected, the Royals bullpen became a target of frustration for fans that afternoon on social media.
As Jack Johnson of “Locked on Royals” alluded to, the Royals bullpen has been one of the prominent blemishes on a team of 35-23 entering this weekend’s home series against the San Diego Padres.
According to Fangraphs, Kansas City ranks 23rd in relief pitcher fWAR with a 0.3 mark this season. Thus, as Jack mentioned above, the group has been mediocre overall, weighed down by performing poorly in many important categories, such as strikeouts and WHIP.
Here’s a look at how the Royals relievers look individually via Fangraphs.
The Royals’ best reliever this year on an fWAR basis is John Schreiber, who has a 0.5 fWAR mark in 23.2 IP. He is boosted by a 1.90 ERA and 2.95 FIP, but his 3.70 xERA and 4.43 xFIP hint that some regression may be coming.
Angel Zerpa is in a similar boat. He has been stellar in 24 outings and 22 IP with a 1.64 ERA and 0.2 fWAR. However, his 4.19 xERA and 3.27 xFIP are much higher marks (though his xFIP is better than Schreiber’s).
Conversely, James McArthur’s numbers look slightly disappointing, with a 3.80 ERA and 0.1 fWAR in 20 outings and 23.2 IP. McArthur keeps his walk numbers low (1.14 BB/9) and looks better on an xFIP end (3.12).
Furthermore, on a Stuff+ end, the former Phillies prospect has demonstrated some of the best stuff out of the Royals bullpen, as he ranks second in Stuff+ on the team behind only Carlos Hernandez.
Other than those three relievers, the Royals bullpen has been quite a mixed bag, if not overall concerning, especially recently. Chris Stratton and Will Smith were expected to bring veteran stability to the bullpen but have failed so far. (Stratton has been slightly more serviceable than the veteran lefty.)
Nick Anderson’s ERA looks decent at 3.54, but his FIP is 5.04, and his fWAR is -0.2, among the worst for Royals relievers this year. He also has a 5.31 BB/9 mark this year, which is not precisely what is needed for a bullpen that ranks 22nd in that category.
Hernandez and Sam Long have shown some flashes of bringing much-needed stuff to the bullpen. Still, they don’t have outstanding track records before this season (and Hernandez was optioned anyway to make room for Daniel Lynch’s emergency start on Thursday).
Thus, the Kansas City bullpen needs help to stay in the thick of things in the AL Central division race and the AL Wild Card hunt.
The Guardians and Twins have the advantage of much better bullpens. According to Fangraphs, Cleveland ranks first in reliever fWAR with a 3.7 mark, and Minnesota ranks 11th with a 1.3 mark.
Do the Royals have the horses in Omaha to help boost this bullpen group in June and July?
And if not, what could the Royals do via the trade market to help improve this unit and keep them competitive (but without sacrificing too much from the farm system)?
Plenty of Intriguing Arms in Omaha (Albeit with Concerns)
The Royals will already be utilizing one of their arms from Omaha this weekend, as Will Klein was promoted and Lynch was demoted to Omaha after Lynch’s Thursday spot start.
Klein struggled with control and command two seasons ago in Northwest Arkansas. However, he has become one of the most intriguing young relief arms on the Kansas City 40-man roster and has been thriving in Omaha with a 1.93 ERA in 21 outings and 23.1 IP.
Klein is on the 40-man roster, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t other intriguing arms in Omaha that could earn a spot on the 40-man soon if the Major League-level bullpen doesn’t improve.
Walter Pennington has been absolutely dominant with the Storm Chasers this season. In 22 outings and 37.1 IP, the lefty has a 1.93 ERA, a 40.8% K%, and a 5.00 K/BB ratio. Jared Perkins, Preston Farr, and I talked with him in a podcast last month, and in addition to being an impressive pitcher on the mound, he’s a terrific guy who is easy to root for.
Still, Pennington’s numbers so far this season in Omaha are pretty ludicrous, and it will be tough for Kansas City to keep him off the Major League roster if he continues to perform like this in June.
Lastly, Dan Altavilla and Evan Sisk have been sneakily having strong campaigns this year with the Storm Chasers, even though they didn’t generate much buzz in Spring Training in Surprise. Altavilla has a 2.22 ERA in 24.1 IP, and Sisk is sporting a 1.93 ERA in 18.2 IP.
The strong Storm Chasers bullpen is a big reason why (in addition to their strong hitting) Omaha is 36-16 and currently leads the International League West division by 5.5 games as of Friday.
While the Omaha relievers’ ERA looks good, what do the advanced metrics say?
Via Baseball Savant, I could look at that group above, as well as Anthony Veneziano, John McMillon, Jonathan Bowlan, and Steven Cruz, three other Storm Chasers relievers on the 40-man roster.
Here’s a look at some more advanced metrics of those Storm Chasers relievers, including numbers such as BB%, K%, and whiff rate.
In terms of command, Pennigton, Sisk, Altavilla, and Bowlan fare the best, as their BB% is all under 11%. McMillon, Pennington, and Sisk have strong swing-and-miss ability, as they have been generating whiff rates over 30% this year (Klein and Cruz are close at 29.8% and 29.1%, respectively). Lastly, in terms of limiting productive contact, Pennington, Sisk, Bowlan, and Veneziano have been able to keep their barrel rates allowed under four percent.
Therefore, based on the advanced metrics, Pennington is currently the most complete reliever in Omaha. I also think Sisk deserves more consideration, especially with his .234 xwOBA, the second-best mark of this group behind only Pennington.
I also wanted to examine this group of pitchers and their fastball performance, especially since the Royals lack a reliever with a premium fastball. Hernandez could be that guy, but the sample is small this year, and he struggles to generate consistent strikes on the pitch (25% CSW, according to Pitcher List).
Here’s a look at those Omaha relievers’ fastball metrics via Savant.
McMillon, as bad as his BB% numbers are this year in Omaha, is whiffing batters the best of this group with his fastball, as evidenced by the 31.2% whiff rate. That said, it’s been a bit of feast or famine with the pitch, for he is allowing a .482 xwOBA, 57.1% hard-hit rate, and 19.0% barrel rate in Omaha. He has seen a decrease in velocity on the fastball (95.1 MPH), which could explain why the pitch isn’t as effective with it as a year ago.
Klein, Cruz, and Altavilla sport the best fastball velocity of the bunch, averaging around 95.5 MPH and above on the pitch. They could be the change-of-pace relievers the Royals currently need in the bullpen.
The most concerning fastball? Surprisingly, it’s Pennington.
Pennington’s average fastball velocity is the slowest of this group of pitchers, at 89.3 MPH. His whiff rate is also the lowest, at 14.7%. He generates good spin on the pitch with a 2,313 RPM mark, the highest of this pack of relievers, keeping the hard hits (30%) and barrels (3.3%) down. Nonetheless, I wonder what his fastball will look like at the MLB level, especially if he can’t locate it as efficiently.
Regarding breaking stuff, here is how the Omaha relievers fared via Savant.
McMillon, Sisk, and Pennington have been pretty elite with their breaking offerings this year with the Storm Chasers, as they are all averaging whiff rates of 49% and above. Pennington also can minimize the hard hits and barrels at 25.6% and 2.6%, respectively. However, McMillon and Sisk aren’t far behind at 38.5% and 7.7%.
Cruz and Bowlan have also been impressive with their breaking offerings regarding generating whiffs, as Cruz has a 42.9% whiff rate, and Bowlan has a 34.2% whiff rate (and doing so as a starter). The main concern with Cruz is that hitters have had a lot of success with Cruz’s breaking stuff when he makes mistakes, as demonstrated by his 28.6% barrel rate allowed. Bowlan’s been much better with his breaking stuff, as his 2.5% barrel rate allowed is the best mark of this group.
Overall, when looking at the Royals’ options in Omaha, Pennington deserves a shot sooner rather than later, though I think some Royals fans should pump the expectations just a little bit. As great as Pennington’s spin rate and whiff rate numbers are (especially on his breaking offerings), I am curious to see if his sub-90 MPH fastball can be successful long-term at the Major League level.
After Pennington, Sisk, Altavilla, Cruz, and Bowlan should be considered for spots in the Royals bullpen this year, though it seems like the Royals are intent on developing Bowlan as a starter for now.
How Much Do the Royals Give Up for a Reliever?
The bottom line is that the Royals knew going into 2024 that their bullpen needed to improve, and JJ Picollo didn’t know if that would be possible within their organization. He proved that opinion this offseason by acquiring Stratton and Smith via free agency, Anderson via trade, and Matt Sauer via the Rule 5 Draft.
Unfortunately, the bullpen acquisitions just haven’t panned out in the first couple of months of the 2024 season. Stratton, Anderson, and Smith haven’t met expectations, and Sauer was designated for assignment and returned to the Yankees (via Rule 5 regulations).
On the flip side, just because a pitcher (or any player) is doing well in Omaha doesn’t necessarily mean they will automatically transition that performance to the Major League level. During this rebuilding process, the Royals have learned the hard way the past five years, first under Dayton Moore and now under Picollo.
So, I get why the Royals are hesitant to move arms up from Omaha, especially with a veteran group that could be on the cusp of turning it around as we enter the dog days of the season (i.e., those hot June through August months). Putting too much pressure on guys like Klein and Pennington could backfire, much like it did for Dylan Coleman and Jon Heasley, who once had high expectations after solid performances in the minors.
The Royals will likely not rush guys like Pennington and the others, though Altavilla could be an exception because he has MLB experience and could be an easy cut if it doesn’t work out (much like Tyler Duffey).
If the Royals are still in the playoff hunt come late June and are still not getting results from their relievers at the Major League level, I could see them pursue an arm or two who could boost the bullpen without sacrificing the development of their younger arms.
As David Lesky of Inside the Crown wrote about today, relievers are the easiest and cheapest assets to add to improve a team during the season.
Nonetheless, fans have to wonder: How much do the Royals give up to get that much-needed bullpen boost?
At the Last Trade Deadline, the Royals improved their long-term outlook by giving up bullpen arms for long-term pieces with upside. Kansas City got Cole Ragans from the Rangers for Aroldis Chapman and Nelson Velazquez from the Cubs for Jose Cuas.
They certainly need that bullpen help, but they do not need to sacrifice the club’s long-term future just to get a reliever or two who may only be effective for two to three months.
The Royals must be patient at the Trade Deadline like the Orioles in 2022 and not jump the gun like the Cubs in 2023.
I get that the Royals need to ride this high and continue to build this club to be a winner for the second half of the 2024 season.
That said, Picollo and owner John Sherman promised to build a long-term winner in Kansas City, not just a flash in the pan like the 2014-2017 teams.
Making the right decisions and not sacrificing the farm too much to get bullpen help would be a step in the right direction, even if it may anger some impatient Kansas City sports fans.
[…] Royals certainly need bullpen help, as I wrote about last week. That said, Kansas City has gotten off to such a great start, thanks to their starting pitching and […]
[…] been frustrating to see Will Smith, Chris Stratton, and Nick Anderson not live up to their preseason expectations. That said, parting ways with veterans isn’t easy, especially for a team trying to take the […]