Should the Royals Send Down MJ Melendez? (And Bring Up Drew Waters?)

Going into the 2024 season, there was some hope that MJ Melendez could bounce back and be a vital part of the Royals’ outfield and lineup.

According to Fangraphs splits, Melendez hit .273 with 10 home runs in 227 plate appearances in the second half of 2023. He also produced a 124 wRC+, .356 wOBA, and .217 ISO after the All-Star Break. Thus, there was some hope that with an entire offseason of work on outfield defense, Melendez could be a 2.0+ fWAR player in 2024, which wouldn’t be bad for a corner outfielder.

Melendez got off to a hot start to the season, slashing .242/.329/.516 on April 19th. Unfortunately, as Trey Donovan pointed out in his deep dive of Melendez of “Farm to Fountains,” there has been a steady decline for the former 2017 second-round pick.

Here’s what Donovan pointed out about Melendez’s performance since April 19th.

Since that date, MJ has hit .144/.172/.256 with zero RBI’s or home runs with three walks. From April 20 to May 27, MJ has a negative-4 wRC+ with a .163 wOBA, that is really bad.

“Royals Deep Dives: What happened to MJ Melendez?” by Trey Donovan; Farm to Fountains

The Royals offense hasn’t been too affected by Melendez’s struggles. Kansas City is currently 34-21 going into Tuesday’s game against the Twins, and the Royals rank 8th in OPS and 4th in runs scored. Nonetheless, the Royals have one of the worst hitting outfields in baseball, and Drew Waters is producing in Omaha after not making the active roster out of Spring Training.

In 41 games and 155 plate appearances with the Storm Chasers, Waters has a slash line of .284/.358/.484 with a .370 wOBA, five home runs, and eight stolen bases. Of current Omaha outfielders on the 40-man roster, the former Atlanta prospect has proven to be the best metrically, as seen below in the table via Savant.

To make matters worse, Melendez seems to be losing at-bats, as manager Matt Quatraro has benched MJ against pitchers who thrive against left-handed hitters.

Today, Twins right-handed starter Simeon Woods-Richardson sports reverse splits; consequently, Melendez is not in the starting lineup. Garrett Hampson is in his place in LF, which is surprising since Hampson doesn’t come close to Melendez’s power potential.

In fact, Melendez has not started a game against a left-handed starter since May 11th against the Angels’ Tyler Anderson, as Royals Review pointed out.

With Melendez struggling mightily and needing everyday plate appearances to work on certain adjustments, should JJ Picollo and the Royals option MJ to Omaha and bring up Waters to Kansas City?

Let’s examine why a demotion could help Melendez and what Waters could bring the Kansas City outfield in Melendez’s place.

Melendez’s Plummeting Plate Decisions

Melendez has always had a contact problem at the Major League level.

According to Fangraphs, he has a career Z-contact rate (contact on pitches in the strike zone) of 78.8%, including a 76.3% Z-contact rate a year ago. For comparison, of hitters with 50 or more plate appearances last season, only Samad Taylor had a worse Z-contact rate. Taylor is in the Mariners organization and has a wRC+ of 75 with the Triple-A Tacoma Rainiers.

Melendez has improved his Z-contact rate to 78.1% this season, but that is still the worst mark for any Royals hitter with 10 or more plate appearances, via Fangraphs. Furthermore, according to his PLV contract rolling chart, he’s ranked below league average in his contact ability this season.

Even though the contact ability has been concerning at the Major League level, Melendez has made up for it with solid plate discipline and adequate power. He posted O-Swing rates under 30% in his first two years at the Major League level, and he also has career barrel and hard-hit rates of 10.9% and 45.9%, respectively.

This year, his O-Swing% has risen to 32%. As a result, his K/BB ratio has plummeted from 0.50 in 2022 to 0.36 in 2023 and 0.25 this year. Additionally, his decision value chart, which started off strong, has regressed significantly throughout the year, and now his Decision Value+ hovers around the bottom percentiles of the league.

A big concern for Melendez is that he has struggled to not just make contact on pitches up in the zone but also lay off them or do anything with them when he does make contact. His PLV heatmap data shows those struggles, especially in his swing aggression, contact, and power heatmaps.

When Melendez gets pitches in the lower part of the zone, he can produce productive contact on those pitches. That is further demonstrated in his xwOBA zone chart data via Savant.

That said, Melendez has been horrific against pitches up in the zone and hasn’t been able to lay off on those pitches, which is a combo for ineffectiveness at the plate.

His PLV swing aggression data shows that MJ has been more swing-happy than ever. This is the polar opposite of his profile when he’s locked in and hitting effectively, whether in previous seasons or earlier this year.

For visualization, here’s an example of Melendez getting a fastball up in the strike zone on a 1-2 count against Casey Mize, and Mize simply blows him away with the pitch for the strikeout.

Something needs to give with Melendez if he wants to stay in the Royals regular lineup, not just for this season but beyond.

Either Melendez has to make some mechanical adjustments to make more contact on pitches up in the zone, or he needs to improve his pitch recognition to take advantage of pitchers’ mistakes when throwing low in the zone.

Whatever the course of action the Royals coaching staff and Melendez decide to take, he needs consistent at-bats to work on improving what has ailed him at the plate in 2024.

Unfortunately, it will be harder for Melendez to work on those adjustments if he loses at-bats to players like Hampson and Adam Frazier.

What Does Waters Bring to the Royals?

Based on Melendez’s need to work on his issues with everyday at-bats in Omaha, Waters would be the logical person to replace Melendez’s spot on the active roster.

Honestly, Waters as a hitter is very similar profile-wise to Melendez, especially when one dives into his PLV rolling charts from a season ago.

Here’s a look at his decision value chart from 2023.

As Royals fans can see above, Waters started the season slow when making decisions at the plate. However, as he saw more pitches at the Major League level, he became more effective.

The same proved to be relatively accurate with his contact and power last year based on the PLV rolling chart trends.

Much like Melendez, Waters has contact issues, as his Contact Ability+ season average ranked just above the 25th percentile a year ago. Furthermore, according to Fangraphs, he only had a Z-Contact rate of 80.7% last year and an O-Swing% of 33.5%.

Thus, his hitting profile mirrors Melendez’s, though the quality of Waters’ contact (35.9% hard-hit rate last year with Royals; 35.8% hard-hit rate this year in Omaha) isn’t as impressive as Melendez’s.

Conversely, Waters can launch and barrel the ball, as evidenced by his 10.6% career barrel rate. Here’s an example of Waters crushing a three-run home run against the Mets last season, which shows that Waters’ home run potential isn’t far from Melendez’s own tool.

In addition to Waters providing some home-run hitting ability to the Royals, he also offers stellar defense, which is much-needed for an outfield that hasn’t been as strong defensively this year. According to Savant, only Hampson and Kyle Isbel have provided above-average OAA value in the outfield.

Last season, Waters was the Royals’ second-best defensive outfielder, with a +5 OAA mark, behind only Isbel’s +11 OAA mark.

Melendez has been better this year, as he only has a -1 OAA in the OF this year. That said, Waters clearly has more upside with the glove, and it’s hard to tolerate Melendez’s “average” defense when his hitting is so clearly below average right now.

Waters may produce similar results to Melendez, especially since Waters is a high-upside outfielder who swings and misses at the plate far too much to be reliable.

That said, Waters deserves at least a month to prove what he can do. Furthermore, Melendez should be in Triple-A to sharpen his hitting skills over that same time frame so he can perhaps give the Royals a boost at the All-Star Break.

Final Thoughts on the Melendez-Waters Situation

With Melendez having two MiLB options remaining and losing at-bats at the Major League level, I think it makes sense for the Royals to send him down and let him work on his hitting mechanics in a lower-pressure environment.

Melendez worked through his mechanical issues last year at the MLB level. However, the Royals were 56-106 a season ago. Picollo and manager Matt Quatraro could afford to be patient with Melendez because it was an “evaluation” season, and there weren’t much better options in Omaha.

With the team winning this year and in the thick of the AL Central and Wild Card race, that tolerance with struggling players is lower. Royals fans saw that with Rule 5 pick Matt Sauer, who was released and returned to the Yankees this past week.

In addition, Waters has done enough in Omaha to at least earn a regular shot in the Royals outfield for a month or two, depending on how he does. Waters may not be much of an upgrade over Melendez, as some fans think. However, the Royals need to see it firsthand and not let Waters continue to waste at-bats in Omaha.

Even if Waters is ultimately seen as a trade candidate in the organization, he won’t raise his trade value by just mashing in Triple-A.

Then again, the time may be ticking for both Melendez and Waters, especially with the Royals looking to build on the momentum of this strong start to the 2024 season.

Tom Verducci of SI.com reported that the Royals are already scouting and inquiring about possible acquisitions before the August Trade Deadline.

According to Verducci, the Royals are interested in upgrading the bullpen and the outfield, which means that Melendez or Waters could be the odd man out.

Waters should at least deserve 3-4 weeks to show what he can do with the Royals.

That said, if he doesn’t produce, or if Melendez’s struggles persist in Omaha (or Kansas City if the Royals choose to keep him up), then it’s likely that Royals fans will see one of those outfielders in a different uniform come August.

Photo Credit: Keith Gillett/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

6 thoughts on “Should the Royals Send Down MJ Melendez? (And Bring Up Drew Waters?)”

  1. MJ’s trade value must be nearing zero and is diminishing with every pathetic at bat. Was there some kind of discipline problem with Waters earlier in the season? I recall him being benched.

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    1. From what I know, there was an issue with Waters either not hustling or not showing a good attitude and it resulted in him being benched. I do think Waters is probably frustrated with how the situation has gone this year, especially since he was part of the team for a good amount when he was healthy.

      Yeah, I’m not sure MJ can be traded at this point. The defense has improved, but it’s hard to justify him as a regular or even a platoon option for any team with how this year is gone. You hope he can bounce back, but he needs to make some mechanical adjustments so he can adjust at least somewhat on those fastballs up in the zone.

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  5. […] Kevin O’Brien dives into three Royals hitters bouncing back: “The Statcast metrics, much like last season, show Melendez to be a better power hitter than the results demonstrate. His barrel rate is 10.8%. Despite this rough season overall, his hard-hit rate is still 40%. Lastly, his xSLG of .447 is 101 points higher than his slugging percentage this year. Melendez still has many problems, and he’s making many stance adjustments that would be better served in a less-pressure-filled environment in Triple-A.“ […]

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