The Royals completed the weekend sweep of the Oakland Athletics, winning Sunday’s game 8-4. The Sunday victory improved the Royals’ record to 29-19, the first time they have been 10 games over .500 in a season since 2015.
Royals fans are riding high after the team took care of business during a weekend celebrating the 2014 AL pennant-winning club. Nonetheless, considering the Royals’ history of ineptitude, some fans still believe that the Royals will fall back to earth and back in the AL Central division standings.
On Sunday, Kansas City is second in the AL Central, 1.5 games behind the division-leading Cleveland Guardians.
The Royals are four games better than the Twins, whom the Royals lost the series to at Kauffman Stadium on Opening Weekend. They are also five games better than the Tigers, who took two of three from Kansas City in Detroit in late April.
From Monday to Wednesday, Detroit comes to Kauffman Stadium for a vital weekday series to determine both teams’ division hopes.
Even though the Tigers are .500 and 4-6 in their last 10 games, they did win two of three against the defending NL Champs in Arizona this past weekend. That included the Tigers winning the first two games over the Diamondbacks by a combined score of 21-3.
Safe to say, the Tigers won’t be as easy an opponent as the Oakland A’s.
Therefore, let’s look at three key things Royals fans should pay attention to in this series over the next three games, especially with a tough road trip looming after this homestand.
The Tigers Bats Are Coming to Kauffman Stadium Hot
If there’s been one catalyst for the Tigers’ mediocre record, it can be credited to their lackluster hitting in 2024.
As of Sunday, the Tigers rank 23rd in OBP, 20th in OPS, 21st in runs scored, and 25th in home runs hit. According to Savant Park Factors, they play their home games in Comerica Park, one of the league’s most challenging parks for hitters.
Nonetheless, the Tigers’ hitting simply has not produced despite a young core of promising talent in the lineup.
Riley Greene, Wenceel Perez, Kerry Carpenter, and Mark Canha have had solid starts to the season at the plate, evidenced by their 136, 155, 133, and 130 wRC+ numbers, respectively. Furthermore, Andy Ibanez has had a surprising start as a super utility guy, as he has a 110 wRC+ and 0.6 fWAR in 61 plate appearances.
After that group, though, it gets ugly quickly for this Tigers offense.
Colt Keith and Parker Meadows, young players expected to be critical pieces to the Tigers lineup in 2024, have been horrific this year, as evidenced by their 35 and 34 wRC+ numbers, respectively. Keith had a strong series against the Diamondbacks and is improving (slowly) after a brutal start. However, Meadows was optioned on May 6th to Toledo and hasn’t been up since.
Javier Baez has been more brutal than ever, evidenced by his 47 wRC+ in 144 plate appearances. Lastly, Spencer Torkelson, who finally lived up to his massive prospect pedigree in the second half of 2023, has had a mediocre start to the year, demonstrated by an 84 wRC+ and -0.4 fWAR in 146 plate appearances.
That said, Torkelson did have a big series in the desert, as he hit his second and third home runs of the year over the weekend.
The Tigers couldn’t close out the sweep, but their offense started showing signs of life over the weekend in ways we haven’t seen earlier.
Was it a flash in the pan, with Detroit taking advantage of a weak Arizona pitching staff (the Diamondbacks rank 25th in ERA)? Or are the Tigers finally getting in a groove and ready to demonstrate that in Kauffman Stadium over the next three days?
The Royals hope it is the former, though the Tigers will miss Seth Lugo and Brady Singer in this series.
The Tigers’ Pitching Staff Has Been One of the Best In Baseball
The Royals have been carried by their pitching staff this year, particularly their starting rotation. The Royals starters rank 4th in ERA and 7th in WHIP, which shows the overall effectiveness of their five starting pitchers.
However, while the Royals have been good, the Tigers starting rotation has arguably been even better.
Detroit ranks slightly behind Kansas City in starting pitching ERA (8th), but it is ahead of the Royals in WHIP (3rd), BB/9 (3rd to Royals’ 11th), and K/9 (4th to Royals’ 9th).
Tarik Skubal, who can be credited as a significant catalyst for the success of the Tigers’ rotation, may be one of the early favorites for the AL Cy Young award this season if he can keep this pace up and stay healthy.
While Skubal shines the most out of this Tigers rotation, there is plenty of depth beyond Skubal.
Jack Flaherty’s ERA is okay at 3.79, but he’s struck out 72 batters in 54.2 IP and seems to improve with each start. Reese Olson, ERA-wise, has been the Tigers’ best pitcher after Skubal, as evidenced by Olson’s 2.09 mark. Lastly, after missing nearly two seasons due to injury, Casey Mize has come out and looked solid in his return to the mound in 2024, demonstrated by his 3.50 ERA in 43.2 IP.
It’s not just the Detroit rotation that has flourished. While the Royals’ bullpen has been a mixed bag in 2024 (though more good than bad), the Tigers have continued to have one of the best relief units in the game today. They rank 4th in ERA and 6th in WHIP and have been primarily led by closer James Foley, who has 10 saves and 2.08 ERA in 17.1 IP.
Foley took over the closer duties from Alex Lange, who closed out games for Detroit in 2023. Lange has a solid 2.78 ERA but has struggled with walks, as he has walked 13 batters in 17.1 IP. He seems to be the lone Tiger with control issues in the bullpen, as no other reliever has reached the double-digit walk mark in 2024.
The Tigers also have lefty Andrew Chafin and righty Alex Faedo, who can hold things down in high-leverage situations, though Chafin hasn’t been as lights out as he was in 2023. They also have middle relievers who used to be starters who have succeeded in the switch in Beau Briekse and Joey Wentz.
Safe to say, it will be tough for the Royals to come back if they are facing a deficit in the late innings due to the Tigers’ quality and depth in the bullpen this season.
That said, the same could be said of the Athletics, and it seemed like the Royals could still damage against one of the better units in the American League over the weekend.
Perhaps the same could be valid for the Royals over the next three days against Detroit.
Can the Royals Build Momentum for a Tough Road Trip Ahead?
I said a sweep would be massive for the Royals to help build positive momentum against a Tigers team that seemed to get some positive momentum in Arizona over the weekend. Thankfully, the Royals accomplished that goal despite Matt Sauer’s three-run ninth inning dampening things.
The Royals seem unlikely to sweep the Tigers, especially with Kansas City facing Olson (game one) and Skubal (game three) in this series. That said, winning a series against a division opponent that took two of three from the Royals earlier in the year would be not just a sweet way to end the homestand but to prepare for the road trip, which may be one of the more challenging ones this season.
After Wednesday, the Royals will travel to face the Tampa Bay Rays for three games over the weekend and then play a four-game weekday slate against the Twins in Minneapolis.
If The Rays haven’t been as strong as in years past, they are only 25-23 and in third place in the AL East. According to Fangraphs, they are still projected to win 84 games and have a 47.8% chance of making the postseason.
The Rays couldn’t close out the sweep on Sunday, but they still took two of three from the Blue Jays in Toronto. Tampa Bay looks to be playing better ball lately after some inconsistency in late April and early May.
As for the Twins, they have been a Jekyll and Hyde team of sorts this year. They started the year slow, sitting under .500 in April. Then they went on a crazy winning streak thanks to the luck of a summer sausage.
However, the Twins have lost six straight, including three in a row against the division-leading Guardians. Now Minnesota is only two games over .500, though Fangraphs is still high on their playoff odds (59%, the highest of any team in the Central).
The Royals certainly are in a better spot momentum-wise than the Twins as of May 19th. However, should the Royals trip up against the Tigers and Rays over the next week? Then it’s possible that the Twins could leverage the Royals’ struggles into another momentum turnaround to catapult them back to the top of the Central division.
That’s why the Royals must take care of business against Detroit, at the very least.
The last thing the Royals need is for the Twins to make a statement against Kansas City in a four-game series to close out the month of May.
Photo Credit: William Purnell-USA TODAY Sports
The Royals Reporter 