How Long Will Matt Sauer Last With the Royals?

During the December Winter Meetings, the Royals selected right-handed pitcher Matt Sauer from the New York Yankees in the Rule 5 Draft.

After being selected, Sauer was listed as the 23rd-best prospect in the Royals system, according to Baseball America, and this is what was said about Sauer in their 2024 scouting report.

Scouting Report: Sauer is a sturdy-bodied righthander who operates with a four-pitch mix dominated by a fastball and slider. His four-seam fastball sat around 94 mph and touched 98, while the slider checked in around 84 mph and peaked at 89. The fastball showed excellent life through the zone and was an effective bat-misser when elevated. Sauer’s slider had plenty of sweeping action and a high spin rate of around 2,600 rpm. Both pitches are above-average and can flash a tick higher. Sauer rounds out his mix with a mid-80s changeup and a low-80s curveball. The changeup flashes fade and drop but is inconsistent, and he can give away the pitch by utilizing a more pronounced glove tap than is seen on his other offerings. He has above-average control.

“Matt Sauer Scouting Report” by Baseball America; 2024

Sauer made the Royals roster out of Spring Training and has been utilized primarily in low-leverage situations out of the bullpen. Unfortunately, the results for the Major League level Sauer have been mixed so far.

In 12 outings and 14.1 IP, the former Yankees pitching prospect has posted a 5.65 ERA, 5.58 FIP, and 1.95 WHIP. Walks and a lack of strikeouts have been the primary issue for Sauer this season. He has a 15.3% walk rate while only producing a 9.3% K rate. A 0.64 K/BB ratio isn’t very impressive, even for a pitcher playing in Double-A primarily a year ago.

The Royals bullpen has been a bit of a mixed bag thus far in 2024. While they rank 14th in reliever ERA, they rank 24th in WHIP, 24th in H/9 allowed, and 30th in K/9.

Therefore, the Royals will need some kind of influx in the bullpen at some point, especially since it seems like manager Matt Quatraro has been heavily relying lately on James McArthur and John Schreiber in high-leverage outings.

Will the Royals return Sauer to the Yankees to call up someone like Walter Pennington, Sam Long, or Dan Altavilla, who have all been doing well so far in Triple-A Omaha?

Or will the Royals continue to gradually give Sauer more work to keep him in Kansas City in 2024 and in the long term?

Sauer’s Intriguing Breaking Ball Stuff

Some fans may see the high ERA and lackluster walk numbers and question why JJ Picollo and the Royals are holding onto Sauer, especially with perhaps more deserving pitchers waiting in Triple-A.

Even though Sauer’s command and control have left much to be desired, Sauer’s stuff has still been imposing at the Major League level.

According to Eno Sarris’ Stuff+ metric, Sauer has the fourth-best Stuff+ (103) of any Royals pitcher this season. The only Royals pitchers he is behind in this category are Cole Ragans (113), Jonathan Bowlen (106), and James McArthur (105). The Royals rank 26th in the league in Stuff+ as a team, so a pitcher with Sauer’s profile is intriguing, even if his Location+ is rough (90, which is better than only Collin Selby).

On a PLV end, Sauer doesn’t rank well overall, as evidenced by his 4.66 PLV, which ranks near the bottom 5th percentile of the league. However, based on PLV, he has flashed potential on his slider and sinker this year.

Sauer’s four-seamer (4.15) and splitter (4.20) are brutal pitches on a PLV end and heavily weigh down his overall PLV. However, the PLV on the slider, his second-most thrown pitch at 23%, rates pretty decently at 5.32.

Thus, Sauer at least has one frequently used pitch he can rely on in his arsenal. Furthermore, the other metrics on the pitch are also intriguing, as seen below in the pitch analysis chart via Pitcher List.

In addition to PLV, Sauer’s slider sports above-average marks in release extension, induced vertical break, and adjusted vertical approach angle. When he can command it properly, Sauer can generate some strong swing and miss with the pitch, which was the case in this pitch below against Texas’ Marcus Semien.

I will look at his sinker, his other plus-PLV offering, a little bit later in this post. However, I want to examine his curveball, a more complicated breaking offering than his slider.

On a PLV basis, the curve rates as a mediocre pitch at 4.94. However, based on the PLV pitch quality data, the pitch does have some positive qualities.

The extension isn’t as great with the curve. He still averaged some good induced vertical break and adjusted vertical approach angle with the breaking pitch. He also sported a 97 plvLoc+ with the curveball, which is still below average but not as bad as his four-seam fastball (79) or splitter (71).

Even though he hasn’t located his curve as well as his slider this year, the pitch does have some good shape and spin. That’s displayed in this strikeout of Houston’s Jon Singleton on April 11th.

On a Stuff+ end, his curveball metrics are much better than they are in terms of PLV. His curveball sports a Stuff+ of 117, only seven points behind his slider.

Therefore, one has to wonder if Sauer can switch up his pitch mix and focus more on breaking balls with his approach.

If he can make that switch, it’s possible that he can be more effective at the Major League level, especially since breaking offerings seem to be his best pitches stuff-wise.

Fastball Offerings Still Need A Lot of Work (Especially With Command)

Sauer sports three fastball pitches (four-seamer, sinker, and splitter), but only his sinker is a good pitch. On a positive end, the sinker looks to be a great pitch on a pitch quality end and probably should be used more than 8.5%.

Based on the above chart, the sinker has much to offer in the long term for Sauer. The pitch was below average in only one category (arm-side break); even then, it wasn’t too bad.

A significant positive about Sauer’s sinker is that he locates it well, especially against right-handed batters, whom he mostly throws it against (52 to RHB; 13 to LHB). Here’s a look at his heatmap on the sinker, and notice how more consistent he is commanding the pitch than the four-seamer.

Sauer can consistently command the sinker on that inside edge against right-handed hitters. While it doesn’t produce a lot of whiffs (15.4% whiff rate), he’s only allowing .250 wOBA on the pitch and a -4 launch angle.

With the fastball, though, he’s not only throwing it more outside of the zone (notice the pink outside the strike zone), but when he throws it for strikes, he makes a lot of mistakes in the middle. Thus, it’s unsurprising that he’s allowing a .468 wOBA and .500 slugging on the four-seamer this season.

The splitter shows some potential with a 33.3% whiff rate and an xwOBA of .231, his second-best mark in that category (behind only the curve). That said, he only throws it 7.4% of the time, and he’s only thrown it twice this year against right-handed hitters (19 times against left-handed hitters).

On the other hand, he’s seen some good effectiveness with it against lefties, as seen in this swinging strike against Baltimore’s Gunnar Henderson.

Would utilizing the sinker and splitter more and the four-seamer less help Sauer? Perhaps, but Sauer does throw the four-seamer 44.9% of the time.

Dropping that four-seam percentage would be a step in the right direction. However, how much Sauer is comfortable dropping it is yet to be determined, and it could be critical to whether he stays in Kansas City or returns to the Yankees.

Final Thoughts On Sauer

I think the Royals will decide on Sauer’s future soon, especially with them 25-17 and looking to stay in the thick of things in the AL Central. With Nick Anderson and Will Smith struggling and even McArthur not looking as dominant in May as he did in April, the Royals need to look to reinforcements in Omaha to help boost their relief output in the late innings.

It’s hard to ignore what guys like Pennington are doing in Omaha this season.

Unfortunately, I am not sure Sauer can be the answer in those situations, especially with him walking more batters than he’s striking out. It also seems Quatraro doesn’t trust him in those situations either, as he sports the third-lowest leverage index when entering a game this season, according to Fangraphs.

It seems like Sauer will have a couple more weeks to prove if he can stay in this Royals bullpen for the remainder of the year. The stuff is certainly intriguing, and I think that with a change in pitch mix, Sauer can be at least a successful reliever at the Major League level. A pitch mix change could help his command and lower the walks that have been dogging him all season.

That said, I am not sure the Royals have the patience to see Sauer make that mix at the Major League level. Maybe last year they would have, but not in 2024, with 25 wins before May 13th.

With one of their best April and May records in quite some time, the Royals must focus on guys who can contribute to the bullpen now, not down the road.

Photo Credit: MLB.com

10 thoughts on “How Long Will Matt Sauer Last With the Royals?”

  1. Mr. O’B, thx for another of your excellent deep dives. I wish I had the brainpower and the patience to do thesemyself, but since I have you I don’t have to! Couple questions: Can they just dfa Sauer and possiblyassign him to Omaha if he clears waivers, or do theyhave to offer him back to the Yanks first and see if theydecline him and THEN dfa him? Also, I don’t understand why they cling to both Renfroeand Velazquez. Is there just no suitable right-handed powerbat able in Omaha and that is forcing them to see if anyonebecomes available in the trade market? Anxiously awaiting next podcast!

    Liked by 1 person

    1. Renfroe is a fairly steady contributor for 5+ years… and hitters being streaky by nature he should go on a tear soon. Velazquez is a bit different, and if the Royals call up Waters, Velazquez may be the one sent down. As for Pennington, we have bigger disappointments in the bullpen than Sauer.

      The Royals are winning, but they’re not hitting on all cylinders. When they do, it will be great.

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      1. I agree on Renfroe. He’s a vet and he’s proven himself. He’s obviously in the downswing of his career but he’s always been a streaky power hitter. The adjustment to Kauffman can be tough for hitters of his profile.

        Velazquez seems like an easy option for Waters to me. Waters improves the outfield defense at the very least and Velazquez obviously has some mechanical issue to fix. The tools are there, but he’s not elevating the ball and not making consistent hard contact despite flashing some solid bat speed. That screams something is off and it needs work in an environment where he can play everyday.

        I do not think Sauer is a “disappointment” by any means. Rule 5 picks are crapshoots. The fact that Sauer made the team out of Spring Training is something not common for many Rule 5 picks (the Royals’ last two R5 picks, Sam McWilliams and Stephen Woods didn’t). So I don’t think Sauer is a problem in the bullpen. Stratton, Smith (though he’s improving) and McArthur’s HR stretch are far more worrisome. That said, this Royals bullpen needs all the depth it can get and while Sauer’s role in low leverage situations works now, I do know that he has to start seeing higher leverage situations just so Q has more options at his disposal.

        And agree with your last point. The Royals are 7 games over .500 and it doesn’t even feel like we’ve seen them click at all the same time. That’s a good sign going forward not just for this year but beyond as well.

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    2. Thank you so much! And they can. That said, the Yankees would have to agree to such a trade. It wouldn’t surprise me if the Royals are perhaps in talks with the Yankees to figure something out, because I think if there was a trade possibility, they would’ve done it a whole lot sooner. Sauer was the second overall pick in the Rule 5 draft and he’s exactly the kind of pitcher the Yankees develop well so my guess is the Yankees are making the price kind of steep.

      I think we’ll see something happen to Velazquez soon. He’s hitting the ball hard again and finding hits, but the lack of elevation and power is concerning. It seems like it’s a mechanical thing, and I think a move to Omaha makes sense. Renfroe I think is who he is and they’re paying him to be that vet. That said, he’s not in the lineup everyday, so at least Q is being judicious with him and his playing time, which I can live with.

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  2. Good analysis. What I see here is more of an approach issue and less of an actual capabilities matter. An analysis of his mechanics might help to develop an action plan to tilt the field in his favor. He could steal a page from Luis Tiant’s book and Add a different arm slot to his weaker offerings. This could help by forcing the hitter to commit earlier. If he already has 4 or 5 pitches with over the top delivery, doing them @ 3/4 slot might force the hitter to commit earlier, or have to catch up to the pitch for committing late. Either way, it should increase weak contact. Add to that tweak in presentation a grater reliance on the slider as an out pitch, and it might help his other offerings. His least effective pitch should be used regularly as a set-up or waste pitch.

    I doubt the Royals part ways with him as he does have some tools to work with.

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    1. I totally agree. I see why the Royals drafted him and why he made the team. The stuff is there and legitimate, but as you said, I think his approach needs a lot of refining. A move to AAA would solve that, but as a Rule 5 pick, they have to try to make those changes on the fly. I think Lyles leaving the team helped him because I think they would’ve been hard-pressed to keep two low-leverage relievers on the roster.

      I think the Royals like him and see his potential, especially if he can make those tweaks as you said. I also think though the Yankees won’t give him up as easily as the Rays gave up Stephen Woods. Sauer has exactly the profile that they develop well so I think a big issue right now is the Royals are probably searching for a deal but don’t want to give an exorbitant amount, so they’re holding onto him until the Yankees lower their asking price.

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