Three Questions Regarding the Royals’ Signing of Adam Frazier

In some surprising news on Saturday morning (like 7 a.m. early), Jon Heyman announced that the Royals had inked Adam Frazier to a one-year deal. Later that morning, MLB.com Royals beat writer Anne Rogers confirmed the deal with some updated financial information regarding Frazier’s contract.

The deal initially came off as a head-scratcher, especially since it seemed this offseason that Michael Massey would be given another shot to be the Royals’ Opening Day second baseman, especially after a strong finish in the final month of play last year. That said, that projection looks to be a little more questionable, though Fangraphs’ Roster Resource is still projecting Massey to be the Royals’ starting second baseman on Opening Day for now.

For just $2 million this year (which is the same amount as Garrett Hampson), JJ Picollo acquiring Frazier isn’t a bad thing on paper, especially since he was an All-Star and 3.5 fWAR player as recently as 2021. Nonetheless, there are a lot of question marks with how this Frazier deal, especially in the context of all the other Royals position player acquisitions this offseason, will affect the roster this spring.

Let’s take a look at three questions from this deal that still need to be answered leading up to Opening Day at Kauffman Stadium on March 28th.

Is a Trade Coming?

Earlier last week before the Frazier signing, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported that the Royals were looking to add a proven closer via trade due to the lack of available options on the free-agent market.

The Royals bullpen looks a lot better on paper this season than it did a year ago.

The Royals added veterans Nick Anderson, Will Smith, and Chris Stratton to replace Scott Barlow, Taylor Clake, and Amir Garrett. They have young and promising arms with upside in James McArthur, John McMillon, Steven Cruz, and Carlos Hernandez, with the latter showing glimpses of being a lights-out reliever before fading down the stretch.

Nonetheless, the Royals bullpen last year was one of the worst in baseball, as the group ranked 29th in ERA and 29th in BB/9. Thus, it makes sense why the Royals are looking to still upgrade, especially if they have aspirations to compete in what could be a competitive AL Central in 2024.

With the Frazier addition, it is possible that either Massey, Loftin or perhaps Samad Taylor, who received inconsistent playing time at the Majors last year, could be on their way out of Kansas City. While all three have shown glimpses of being a long-term solution at the keystone position for the Royals, they are still unproven, though Loftin and Taylor haven’t been given much of an opportunity.

None of the three will merit much in a trade by themselves. However, what if the Royals were able to throw in MJ Melendez in such a deal? The Royals have a similar logjam in the outfield after the signing of Hunter Renfroe. While they eventually traded away Edward Olivares to clear some space, the Royals have decisions to make on not just Melendez, but Drew Waters, Nelson Velazquez, and Dairon Blanco.

Melendez has been floated out by many Royals fans and content creators as a possible trade candidate this offseason. Even though Melendez had a strong finish to the year (even more so than Massey), he was not good defensively in the outfield, and his strikeout issues are a real concern, especially in the long term.

Then again though, even though the position player roster appears crowded, that may not necessarily “require” a trade.

The only one without Minor League options remaining is Hampson, who likely would be DFA’d if he doesn’t perform in the first month or two (much like Franmil Reyes last year). Massey and Melendez both have options, as do Loftin, Waters, Velazquez, and Blanco.

Thus, Picollo doesn’t need to make rash moves with any of the young Royals players due to their options and roster flexibility.

In his latest post for Royals Review, Preston Farr (also of Farm to Fountains) talked about while the initial feeling was that a trade was looming, the Royals may be better off standing pat for now, especially since a closer may not be worth the cost it would take in a trade.

When it comes to Royals news this winter, it’s often been a “where there’s smoke there’s fire” kind of offseason. Rarely have the Royals not acted on something that was being rumored, and the “trade for a closer” talks didn’t come out of nowhere.

That said, considering the up-and-down years that Massey and Melendez had, I am not sure a trade is “for sure” happening, though it wouldn’t be surprising if something develops later this week.

Does Frazier’s Profile Fit in Kansas City?

Frazier is coming off a weird offensive year in his lone season in Baltimore in 2023.

On one end, he hit a career-high 13 home runs, and his BB% and K% ranked in the 84th and 89th percentile, respectively. Conversely, he only posted a 93 wRC+, .301 xwOBA, and 0.3 fWAR in 455 plate appearances, according to Fangraphs, which are all mediocre marks. His barrel rate also ranked in the 7th percentile and his hard-hit rate ranked in the 2nd percentile, which may not be a good fit in a park as cavernous as Kauffman Stadium.

On the flip side, while the average exit velocity and hard-hit rates leave a bit to be desired, Frazier’s numbers from last year compare not only favorably to Massey, but also to Nicky Lopez, who got a lot of playing time at second base before getting traded to Atlanta around the Trade Deadline.

Here’s a look at how the three infielders compared on a hitting end last year, via Fangraphs.

Massey did hit two more homers than Frazier. However, of the three, Frazier had the lowest K% (14.9%) and his wRC+ was 20 points better than Massey and 16 points better than Lopez. Ironically, all three players were affected by low BABIP numbers, with Frazier posting the lowest one at .258. It was the second straight season where Frazier posted a BABIP under .270 (he had a .268 BABIP in 2022 in Seattle).

One area of hope I have for Frazier over Lopez for sure and perhaps even Massey is that Frazier does possess a solid batted-ball profile that could take advantage of the gaps in Kauffman Stadium. Let’s compare the PLV Batted Ball heatmaps of all three batters from a season ago.

Lopez’s approach is mostly opposite field-heavy, but it’s a lot of groundballs. Massey’s profile is pretty pull-heavy, and while he does have a lot of line drives and productive fly balls, he does have a lot of pulled groundballs (which is less productive).

Frazier on the other hand is more line-drive focused, and he doesn’t hit a lot of groundballs in either direction. Last year, he produced either a lot of batted line drives or fly balls in the right-center gap or line drives to left field. That kind of profile could fit in the K, much like Andrew Benintendi in 2021 and 2022.

Here’s an example of Frazier getting a base hit off of Jordan Lyles on May 4th at the K last year. It’s not hit exceptionally hard (73.9 MPH exit velocity), but his launch angle on the ball helps Frazier get a single in right field at the K.

Adam Frazier-1B-2023

Benintendi parlayed that kind of batted-ball approach into an All-Star campaign in 2022. That doesn’t mean that Frazier’s going to be the Royals’ All-Star rep in 2024, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see Frazier bounce back with the Royals this season, especially if his batted-ball luck can spike to 2021 levels (.339 that year).

The biggest issue though will be defense for Frazier, as he is coming off his worst season in the field.

Of qualified fielders last year, Frazier was by far Baltimore’s worst player defensive on an OAA basis, as evidenced by his 15-outs below-average mark.

According to OAA tracking data, Frazier particularly struggled on plays where he had to go to his right (i.e. up the middle), as he was 10 outs below average in that category. While he was still below average on plays in and to his left, he wasn’t necessarily as horrendous in those areas.

What’s interesting though is that Frazier was six outs above average a season ago in Seattle, which was the second-best mark for qualified Mariners fielders, according to Savant.

Frazier was still below average on plays to his left, though not as bad as he was in 2023 (he was three outs worse with Baltimore). The biggest difference was on plays to his right. In 2022, he was three outs above average in that category, which was 13 outs better than what he did in 2023.

That’s a sizeable difference and begs us to ask two questions: Was Frazier battling a lingering injury or minor issue that was limiting him so greatly on plays to his right in Baltimore? And will we see that issue continue in 2024?

It’s hard to know what the answer is until Frazier and Picollo share what happened last year and why they may believe it won’t happen again. Regardless, it will be something to watch out for from Frazier in 2024, as his defense could either prolong his stay in Kansas City or expedite his departure?

Will Frazier Be the Opening Day Second Baseman?

Frazier just turned 32, which makes him the second-oldest Royals position player projected to be on the Opening Day roster, via Roster Resource (only Salvy is older; Renfroe is younger by a month). For a team that is building for the future, adding someone of Frazier’s age seems to be questionable, especially if he’s going to be the Royals’ regular second baseman.

We won’t know what Frazier’s exact role will be until the move is officially announced this week (likely Monday or Tuesday). However, I am not totally sold that Frazier will be the Opening Day starter at the keystone position.

First off, Frazier’s $2 million deal for this year is not much more than what Matt Duffy made last year ($1.5 million). In fact, the former Mississippi State Bulldog is making the same amount as Hampson, who was brought on to have a utility role in both the infield and outfield.

It would be one thing if Frazier was signed to a multi-year deal in the $8-12 million range. That kind of money usually signifies that a guy was acquired to be a starter.

However, for $2 million? That’s an easy cut for a team if the player doesn’t live up to expectations.

If anything, Picollo is probably building depth to not just give manager Matt Quatraro more options and weapons off the bench, but also to put pressure on the young guys to compete. Here’s a look at the breakdown of the position players acquired this offseason and which young players they affect.

  • Frazier: $2 million; Affects Massey at 2B.
  • Hampson: $2 million; Affects Loftin at the UT role.
  • Renfroe: $6.5 million; Affects Velazquez at RF.

Picollo probably believes in their young players still. If he didn’t, I think the Royals would have made more aggressive free-agent moves (i.e. guys who would’ve required multiple guaranteed years).

Frazier, Hampson, and Renfroe all have affordable enough deals where they can be expendable, much like Reyes, Jackie Bradley, Jr., and Hunter Dozier, who were all moved out of Kansas City after lackluster performances a season ago.

At the same time, this team lost 106 games in 2023. There should be no sacred cows on this roster (beyond Bobby Witt, Jr. of course), especially if the Royals want to jump up in the standings in 2024 and beyond. The Royals did the “evaluation” thing a season ago, and I think their “evaluation” was that beyond Witt, everyone still has to prove themselves in 2024.

Mike Kurland of the Athletic and Fantasy Pros seemed to echo that sentiment with Massey, particularly in the wake of the Frazier signing.

That kind of depth is not a bad thing.

Quatraro is not Mike Matheny. Q will play the guys who perform regardless of age, contract, or clubhouse title (Maikel Garcia taking the third base position from Dozier is a prime example). If Massey, Loftin, and Velazquez hold off Frazier, Hampson, and Renfroe, they will be the ones getting the primary at-bats, especially come July and August.

However, we don’t know if that will happen for sure. The young guys have to compete and earn their spots this season, not just for a month in Cactus League play, but in April, May, and June as well.

That’s why Picollo is adding inexpensive veterans like Frazier, Hampson, and Renfroe…

To ensure that this team isn’t winning only 56 games in 2024.

Photo Credit: G Fiume/Getty Images

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