Royals Add Pitching During Winter Meetings…Is There More to Come?

One clear message from JJ Picollo and manager Matt Quatraro this offseason has been the desire to improve the Royals’ pitching in 2024. After ranking 28th in ERA, 25th in FIP, and 27th in staff fWAR last season, it makes sense that the Royals want to upgrade in all pitching areas this winter to improve upon their 56-106 record a season ago.

The Winter Meetings took place this past week and for the most part, it was a tame one for the Royals, though that could be said for most teams as well (Shohei Ohtani remains a free agent after all). After signing Garrett Hampson at the end of November, Picollo and the Royals front office focused on acquiring pitching this week through minor league free agency and the Rule 5 Draft.

Let’s look at the pitching additions the Royals made through both the Rule 5 and free agency this week and examine some possible moves that could be on the horizon this winter, even if it may take longer than Royals fans want.

Matt Sauer Headlines Royals’ Rule 5 Selections

On Rule 5 Draft day, it appeared that the Royals were going to sit out from the Rule 5 Draft for a third straight year. However, just a couple of hours before the draft, the Royals traded reliever Dylan Coleman to Houston in exchange for 20-year-old pitcher Carlos Mateo.

While the Royals did acquire a lottery ticket in Mateo (he has yet to pitch above complex ball), the more important aspect of the move was to clear a spot on the 40-man roster to allow the Royals to select someone in the Rule 5 Draft.

It was surprising to see Coleman traded away, especially after a promising 2022 in which he posted a 2.70 ERA in 68.1 IP.

On the other hand, his xFIP was 4.38 that season, and his K/BB ratio was 1.92 that season as well. Thus, he seemed likely due to regress in 2023, and that happened in spades. His ERA and xFIP rose to 8.80 and 6.60, respectively, and he produced a fWAR of -0.4 in 18.1 IP.

Even though he still flashed some potential at times and seemed to be doing some work at Tread (where Cole Ragans went last offseason), it was likely that he didn’t have a guaranteed roster spot come Spring Training. Hence, the Royals decided to take advantage of his trade market while he still had value.

With Coleman’s roster spot free, Picollo and the Royals selected Matt Sauer with the second-overall pick in the Rule 5 Draft.

Sauer hasn’t pitched above Double-A ball, as his Minor League career has been derailed a bit due to injuries. That said, he’s an intriguing pitching prospect who could be used as a long reliever or spot starter in 2024, should he make the Royals’ 26-man roster (Rule 5 picks have to stay on the roster the whole year or else they will be returned to their original team, which is the Yankees in this case for Sauer).

A second-round pick in the 2017 draft, he made 14 appearances (13 starts) and pitched 68.1 IP in 2023 with the Double-A Somerset Patriots of the Eastern League. Even though the Eastern League profiles as more of a pitcher’s league than the Texas League (which the Northwest Arkansas Naturals play in), Sauer still stood out in his limited sample. He not only produced a 3.42 ERA and 3.71 xFIP, but he also flashed a K% of 29.5% and K/BB ratio of 2.86, both impressive marks for a starting pitcher at that level.

To compare, of the Naturals pitchers who threw 30 or more innings last year in Double-A, only four produced a better K/BB ratio than Sauer (Anthony Veneziano; Brett de Geus; Jonathan Bowlan; and Mason Barnett). Therefore, it’s not surprising that MLB Pipeline named Sauer the Royals’ 22nd-best prospect in their system after the Rule 5 Draft.

Sauer has the frame, pitching motion, and tempo to be a successful pitcher for the Royals in 2023 and beyond. The Yankees are known for their uniform development with pitchers in their system and Sauer is no exception, especially when one sees him on tape. He got on the radar of a lot of prospect experts after an 8-inning, 17-strikeout outing in 2022 with Somerset.

Sauer pitched recently in the Arizona Fall League for Mesa and pitched mostly in relief, which probably was on purpose to boost his value in the Rule 5 Draft.

In nine outings and 10.2 innings of work, he produced a 5.91 ERA, which isn’t great. However, his WHIP was solid at 1.22 and he produced a K/BB ratio of 3.60, highlighted by a K/9 of 15.2. What hurt him was the long ball, which is not surprising considering the hitter-friendly park factors of the AFL home parks.

A fastball-slider pitcher, Sauer’s outlook profiles very similarly to Brad Keller, whom the Royals acquired in the 2017 Rule 5 Draft. Keller came to the Royals as a hybrid pitcher who was utilized primarily in relief initially. After he got comfortable at the Major League level though, he started to gain starts and he ended up producing solid numbers as a starter from 2018 to 2020 before the wheels fell off in 2021.

If the Royals can get three solid “Keller-esque” seasons from Sauer at the Major League level, that would be a huge win for this organization, especially in regards to their scouting and pitching development, which has been under fire since 2018.

Royals Target and Sign Relievers With High Spin Curves and Solid Control

The Royals did make three picks in the Minor League portion of the Rule 5 Draft, which included outfielder Joe Gray; left-handed pitcher Keylan Kilgore; and infielder Ryan Fitzgerald. The picks aren’t expected to have a high impact at the MLB level, but all three have shown flashes of potential as prospects. Thus, they are lottery tickets that probably will fill in at Northwest Arkansas and Omaha in 2024.

Beyond the Rule 5 Draft though, Kansas City also signed four Minor League free agents this week, including three pitchers who are expected to compete for spots in the bullpen in Surprise this spring.

I’ll probably talk more about Brosseau in a separate post where I analyze the outlook of Gray and Fitzgerald from the Minor League Rule 5 Draft. As for the other three though, there’s a lot to like, even if they both carry considerable risk as Minor League free agents.

Altavilla was the first one to sign from this group and he may carry the most upside of this group, despite not pitching since 2021 due to various injuries (he did pitch in the Red Sox organization last year). Even though he has had a long layoff, he’s been impressive with Licey in the Dominican Winter League thus far in 10 outings.

Over nine innings of work, Altavilla is posting a 2.00 ERA and a 3.00 K/BB ratio. There have also been reports that his fastball is up to 98 MPH with Licey, which is a profile that the Royals pitching coaches have been able to find success with at times last season with guys like Carlos Hernandez and John McMillon.

Duffey and Long are more familiar names with Royals fans as Duffey had been with the Twins from 2015 to 2022 and Long pitched for the Athletics last year (and Giants before that). Duffey and Long are both known for sporting high-spin curveballs, which has led to various levels of success at the Major League level throughout their respective careers.

Duffey is a bit more proven than Long, as Duffey posted a 2.50 ERA in 2019, a 1.88 ERA in 2020, and a 3.18 ERA in 2021. He also produced solid K rates in 2019 and 2020 (34.5% and 33.7% respectively) and respectable walk rates in those seasons (5.9% in 2019 and 6.5% in 2020) as well. Unfortunately, things started to slide in 2021 (24% K rate; 11% BB rate) before he bottomed out a bit in 2022 (4.91 ERA; 5.53 xERA) which led to him being non-tendered by the Twins.

The Cubs signed Duffey as a Minor League free agent, but he didn’t see much time at the MLB level, as he made only one outing with the Cubs in 2023. Even though he’s on the downswing of his career, he sports a pretty filthy curveball, which still sported considerable movement (2,479 average RPM) and swing-and-miss ability (28.9% whiff rate) as recently as 2022.

Tyler Duffey CB-2022

As for Long, he’s coming off a rough season in Oakland in which he posted a 5.60 ERA and 1.56 WHIP in 45 IP. That said, he did produce a 3.61 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in 42.1 IP with the Giants in 2022, and his curve in 2023 showcased some potential as well.

Long’s primary breaking ball offering (he threw it 30.5% of the time) produced a spin of 2,576 RPM and a whiff rate of 22.4% last season. The whiff rate wasn’t exactly great, but the shape of the pitch is intriguing, as it sports much more vertical movement than Duffey’s curveball offering, as evidenced in the clip below.

Sam Long CB-2023

On a PLV end, Long’s curve doesn’t rate well, as it sports a 4.75 PLV, which is below average. That being said, his four-seamer and slider rate as plus pitches on a PLV end, which can be seen in the chart below, via Pitcher List.

Could perhaps increasing the usage of his slider and decreasing the usage of his curve make his curve a more effective pitch? Or could Zach Bove, the Royals’ pitch-shape guru, help Long make an adjustment on the curve to make it a better pitch on a PLV end?

The Royals lack left-handed bullpen options, as Jake Brentz and Josh Taylor, both of whom missed considerable time due to injuries, are the only serious options as of now.

If Long can make the proper adjustments this offseason and spring, he could find himself as one of the Royals’ primary left-handed relievers in 2024.

Royals Active in Free Agency and Trade Talks…But Can They Reel Ones In Soon?

To Picollo’s credit this offseason, he simply isn’t sitting on his hands this offseason when it comes to acquiring pitching.

While they haven’t been able to make a splash signing just yet, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic did report that they have been in on many starting pitcher candidates, including Sonny Gray, who signed with the Cardinals.

One of the names they have been connected with that seems to have some legitimacy is Seth Lugo, who pitched for the Padres last season.

Lugo is a bit older at 34 years old and he was primarily a reliever before 2023. On the other hand, he was a Royals target reportedly last year, and he probably would come at a price range that the Royals could definitely afford. Lugo isn’t a sexy target by any means, but he does sport a high-spin curveball, which seems to vibe with the current priorities of this Royals front office and coaching staff.

In addition to Lugo, the Royals have been tied to trade talks with the Mariners and Marlins, who both have a surplus of young pitching and a lack of bats at the Major League level. From Rosenthal’s reports, it sounds like MJ Melendez, Michael Massey, and Freddy Fermin are the ones being primarily discussed with those teams.

Many are surprised that MJ and Massey are mentioned as trade candidates but they did have solid second-half campaigns and they could fare better offensively in more hitter-friendly ballparks. As for Fermin, while he did have a solid season in 2023, he is 28 years old and he may be due for regression at his age sooner than expected, due to his position.

It also sounds like trade talks concerning Salvy have cooled, which makes sense considering the two teams interested last year (White Sox and Marlins) have new people running their front offices. While Salvy brings a lot of leadership qualities, he had a down season offensively and defensively, and his price tag may just be too high for other teams, even with some financial help from the Royals.

Nonetheless, the Royals are at least trying to get better in the free agency and trade market, which is something we didn’t see often in the Dayton Moore era.

Picollo isn’t settling like he did with Jordan Lyles last year or like Moore did with Mike Minor in 2021. The fact that they are tied to legitimate names and organizations flush with pitching talent is a positive sign, especially since it’s only December and we still have a couple of months until pitchers and catchers report.

Then again though, it’ll be interesting to see how this unfolds by March…

While the effort and process of Picollo have been encouraging, Royals fans want to see results soon, both in transactions as well as on the field in 2024.

Photo Credit: NJ.com

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