In my last post, I wrote about four Royals hitters to be optimistic about, based on their 2024 Steamer projections.
On the pitching end, I wanted to highlight a few starting pitchers individually whose projections stood out, and then look at some relievers as a group who also could be intriguing according to Steamer.
Here’s a look at how Royals pitchers expected to pitch more than one IP this year fared according to those Steamer projections.
As expected, Steamer projects that Cole Ragans will be the Royals’ best overall pitcher in 2024 as he is expected to produce a 3.92 ERA and 2.6 fWAR in 177 IP. That said, I am not going to profile him as I wrote an in-depth piece on him earlier this offseason, and honestly, the Steamer projections have not changed my impression of his outlook for next season.
In this first starting pitcher Steamer projection post, I am going to look at Brady Singer, who’s expected to be the Royals’ second-most valuable starting pitcher in 2024.
Is Steamer Realistic About Singer?
Steamer is projecting Singer to pitch 169 innings in 2024 and produce a 4.37 ERA, 4.27 FIP, a 2.72 K/BB ratio, and 2.1 fWAR. While that 169 IP would be a career-high for Singer, he did pitch a 159.2 IP in 2023, which was the most innings Singer has pitched at the Major League level since debuting in 2020 (and that included an IL stint at the end of the year).
So honestly, that 169 IP range is a realistic projection, and he could reach the 170-180 IP mark if he can stay fully healthy and work deeper into games, which he started to do midway through the 2023 season.
In terms of his other metric projections, below is a look at how Singer has performed year by year in those respective categories, according to Fangraphs.
As Royals fans can see, the K/9 and BB/9 projections may be a bit conservative considering that Singer had never posted a K/9 below 8.50 prior to last season. Furthermore, Singer’s FIP numbers have traditionally been a lot better than that 4.27 projection, with the exception of last year, when he posted an FIP mark that was 21 points higher than his worst mark in 2020, his rookie season.
Steamer does project a boost in LOB% to 70.2%, which makes sense considering that he suffered from some batted-ball “unluckiness” in 2023 in comparison to 2022 (though not as bad as 2021 when it was .350 and his LOB% was 67.8%). On the flip side, Steamer also projects a regression in Singer’s groundball rate from 49.5% in 2023 to 47.9% in 2024.
Keeping the ball on the ground will be key to a Singer bounce-back in 2024, though preventing hard contact will be a bigger priority (which isn’t measured in Steamer projections).
Hitters produced an average exit velocity of 91 MPH on batted balls against Singer in 2023 which was not just a career-high, but nearly two MPH higher than his mark in 2022. Unfortunately, this increase in average exit velocity trend has continued not just since 2022 but also since his rookie year as well, as one can see in the breakdown chart below.
So while keeping the ball on the ground is important (after all, groundballs don’t go for home runs), the BABIP numbers could continue to be higher (and LOB% be lower) than expected if he isn’t able to see some regression in hitters’ average exit velocity on batted balls against him in 2024.
Additionally, that could prevent him from not meeting those 2024 Steamer projections, as well as perhaps doing better than expected, which is what Singer, the Royals, and Royals fans want from their 2018 first-round pick next year.
Sinker Velocity Will Be Key in 2024
When it comes to looking at the pitch quality of Singer’s pitch mix from last year, it is obvious that Singer’s sinker was a big contributor to his disappointing season in 2023.
Here’s a look at his PLV charts from both 2022 and 2023 and notice the major drop in his sinker PLV and PLA numbers.
Singer’s sinker wasn’t an elite pitch in 2022, but it was at least an above-average one, based on PLV (4.91) and PLA metrics (3.56). However, while he did see slight PLV regression in his slider (5 points) and changeup (1 point), his sinker saw a 25-point regression in PLV and a 1.32 decline in PLA.
Unsurprisingly, his sinker was a below-average pitch in 2023. Considering Singer threw another below-average pitch in his changeup (4.46), it’s not surprising to see Singer post an overall PLV of 4.85, which also was below average (and 14 points lower than a season ago).
A big reason for this decline in pitch quality could be credited to his declines in average velocity and spin rate on the pitch last season.
In 2022, the sinker was averaging a velocity of 93.8 MPH and a spin of 2297 RPM. Last year, the same pitch was only averaging 92.1 MPH and a spin of 2280 RPM.
In the chart comparison below via Savant, notice how Singer saw steep drops in his sinker velocity and spin in 2023 after two seasons of positive progression in 2021 and 2022 (left for spin rate; right for pitch velocity).
That is a concerning drop, though Singer going on the IL in mid-September due to a left lower lumbar strain could’ve explained his velocity drop, especially in September, when it was averaging under 91 MPH, according to Savant.
In terms of the sinker’s movement profile, let’s take a look at Singer’s PLV pitch movement chart from last season and how it differed from his breakout 2022 campaign.
Singer’s sinker not only had less separation from his slider, but it also had more glove-side movement on average in 2023 in comparison to 2022.
Notice how many more orange dots (sinker) are closer to the middle y-axis in comparison to 2022. That’s a sign that Singer wasn’t getting the movement he wanted on the sinker last year, and could explain the regression in pitch quality as well as results on the pitch.
To get a more visual look at the pitch movement difference, this GIF compilation below shows his sinker in 2022 in late August in the White Sox and compares it to one he threw last year in September against the Mariners.
Obviously, the 2.8 MPH velocity difference is eye-popping at first glance. However, his sinker shows way less horizontal movement in 2023 than in 2022. It still manages to clip the edge of the inside strike zone against Seattle’s Mike Ford, but the arm-side movement on the pitch is not as nasty as the one that froze up Josh Harrison of the White Sox two seasons ago.
For Singer to meet or surpass his Steamer projections in 2024, it won’t be the addition of a fourth pitch or further development of his changeup.
Rather, it will be how his sinker profile fares next season.
If Singer can recapture that 2022-esque sinker effectiveness for the upcoming year, it’s possible that Singer could be an anchor in the No. 2 or 3 spot in the Royals rotation who could post an ERA under four.
What Do the Royals Do With Singer?
It’s easy for Royals fans to forget how high Singer’s stock was as a pitcher after the 2022 season concluded.
At that time, many Royals fans thought that he deserved a long-term extension, and it seemed across the league Singer was widely respected, especially after being named to Team USA in the World Baseball Classic.
As we all know though, extension talks with Singer fell through and Singer’s performance in the WBC was brief and ineffective. Compound that with a 5.52 ERA campaign last season, and it shouldn’t come as a surprise to see Royals fans advocate for a trade of Singer this offseason, a 180-degree flip from what the popular sentiment was with Singer last winter.
To be frank, I don’t think the Royals should trade Singer right now.
While he was being discussed at the Trade Deadline (the Dodgers were a popular name involved), Singer’s trade value right now is at its lowest. Whatever the Royals would get would not match Singer’s value in the long term.
Remember, Singer is a former first-round pick and has accumulated nearly 8 fWAR in his career in the Majors thus far (and that was with a canceled 2020 MiLB season). While it’s easy to dismiss his high ERA from a season ago, he still produced a 1.9 fWAR as a 26-year-old, which was actually the second-best mark for a Royals pitcher last year, according to Fangraphs.
JJ Picollo and the Royals should not just trade Singer to trade him. If they get a good prospect haul or a more proven pitcher/player (and a minor prospect) in return, then the Royals should entertain that offer. Outside of that though, Picollo should be patient.
Because if the Royals do want to trade him, they could probably get a better package by waiting until the August Trade Deadline especially if he bounces back considerably and looks closer to his 2022 self.
Right now, the projections are shooting for him to be somewhere in between that 2022 and 2023 version.
If he can fix the sinker this offseason and spring, expect him to produce numbers in 2024 closer to his 2022 season…
Then, the Royals can make that trade involving Singer, especially once they clear up their pitching situation this offseason, which still feels unclear and incomplete even after the Nick Anderson and Kyle Wright trades.
Photo Credit: Ron Schwane/Getty Images
[…] Kevin O’Brien at Royals Reporter writes about Brady Singer’s Steamer projections. […]
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