At 39 years old, it seems likely that Zack Greinke will make 2023 his final season in Kansas City and professional baseball as well.

Despite returning for the 2023 season on an incentive-laden deal, it hasn’t exactly been a season to remember for the likely Royals and Cooperstown Hall of Famer.

As of Wednesday, Greinke is posting a 1-15 record, 5.18 ERA, and 1.0 fWAR in 137.1 innings of work. His ERA and record are the worst marks of his career since his age-21 season back in 2005 when he went 5-17 and posted an ERA of 5.80.

Granted, Greinke had a chance to earn his second win on Tuesday against the Tigers, as he was pretty flawless in his second-to-last outing of the year. He went five innings for the first time since August 1st, and he allowed zero runs on only one hit and one walk while striking out five.

Unfortunately, the Royals bullpen, led primarily by rookie Anthony Veneziano (making his MLB debut), Collin Snider, Taylor Clarke, and Jackson Kowar, was unable to preserve his slim lead, and Greinke still remains with only one victory for the year in 29 appearances.

With the Royals hosting the Yankees in the final homestand of the year, and Greinke the projected starter for the Royals’ final game of the season at Kauffman Stadium, it seems unlikely that Greinke will garner that long-awaited second win of the year (he earned his only win of the year on May 3rd against the Orioles at Kauffman Stadium).

That being said, if Royals fans know Greinke, he will likely do all he can to surprise and entertain Royals fans against the Yankees on Sunday afternoon, even amidst a 100+ loss season.

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Inverse Luck in Year Two of Second Stint in Kansas City

In 2022, Greinke flashed decent numbers (by Royals starting pitcher standards) but obviously showed that he was a pitcher well past his prime.

While he did post a 3.68 ERA, his 4.78 xERA, 4.54 xFIP, and 2.70 K/BB ratio hinted that Greinke didn’t quite have his best stuff anymore at 38 years old. Even though his BABIP was around the league average at .306, he did benefit from an 8.2 percent HR/FB rate. That was nearly half his 2021 rate in Houston and his lowest rate since 2015 when he was with the Dodgers.

Initially, I was open to the Royals bringing back Greinke if they could do so at a more affordable price, and if he wasn’t expected to be the Royals’ No. 1 starter.

However, Brady Singer, who finished 2022 as the Royals’ best starter, didn’t get enough work in Spring Training due to his “bench” tenure with Team USA in the World Baseball Classic. Furthermore, the other starter the Royals acquired in free agency was Jordan Lyles, who has been…well…not good to put it lightly.

As a result, Greinke was thrust into the Opening Day spot for the Royals on March 30th, and though he flashed some early promise (crazy to think that his lone win came against a playoff team), it’s been rough sledding for the most part for Greinke this year, especially after Memorial Day.

After posting a 2.30 ERA in the month of May, Greinke struggled particularly in June and July, though he started to turn it around in August and September, according to Savant splits data.

A 7.56 ERA in June and 7.53 ERA in July ballooned his ERA to 5.44 in 18 starts and 92.2 IP prior to the All-Star Break. In the second half though, he saw some minor improvement, even though the Royals seemed to conserve him over the last two months, as evidenced by his 11 appearances and only eight starts.

In the second half, Greinke posted a 4.63 ERA, highlighted by a 4.08 ERA in August and 4.50 ERA in September in 17.2 IP and 18 IP, respectively. After only striking out five batters and walking two in 14.1 IP in July, Greinke did boost his K numbers back to 14 and 15 in August and September, respectively.

What’s interesting to note though is that Greinke’s expected stats were slightly better in 2023 than in 2022, especially when compared to his actual numbers.

Last season, Greinke’s xERA was 1.10 points higher than his actual ERA. This year? His xERA of 5.11 was actually .07 points better than his actual ERA of 5.18. Additionally, his xFIP of 4.41 was not just better than his actual FIP (4.79) but his xFIP from last season as well (4.54).

His PLV data also demonstrates that beyond his fastball pitches, Greinke didn’t see much regression in pitch quality. In fact, he actually saw some improvements on some of his other secondary offerings.

The four-seamer and sinker both saw some serious regression in PLV from a season ago. However, his changeup, cutter, and slider usage all improved, and even though his curveball PLV regressed, it still remained for him a plus pitch.

His slider and changeup also continued to be effective two-strike pitches for Greinke this year, despite his overall struggles on the mound.

His slider produced a 24.2 percent CSW and his changeup produced a 15.5 percent CSW, which ranked in the 13th and 8th percentiles, according to Pitcher List. While those percentages aren’t great obviously, his slider did produce a 2-strike O-Sw% of 31.8 percent and his changeup produced a 2-strike O-Sw% of 38.2 percent. Both of those percentages ranked in the 80th percentile.

Here’s a look at Greinke generating those chases on those respective secondary offerings from outings against the Guardians and Phillies, respectively.

Despite this rough year, those pitches were things of beauty and reminded Royals fans why Greinke used to be one of the top pitchers in the game for such a long period of time (especially during his first stint in KC).

Let’s hope that Greinke can primarily tap into that slider and changeup once more on Sunday at Kauffman Stadium in his final start of 2023 against the Yankees.

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Remembering Greinke’s Overall Legacy (And Not Just the Last Two Years)

It’s hard to say whether or not Greinke’s return to Kansas City was successful.

While he produced an average ERA of 4.43 over the past two years, Greinke failed to eat many innings since 2022. He only pitched 137 innings last year and he has accumulated 137.1 IP this season, so it’s been nice to see Greinke at least surpass his inning total from a season ago.

That being said, it’s a far cry from the days when he threw 200 or more IP five times in six years from 2015 to 2019.

Of course, no Royals fan expected Greinke to be a 200+ IP workhorse at 38 and 39 years old. On the other hand, he was signed to be, fair or not, the top starter on this Royals team. And unfortunately, that simply didn’t come to fruition this second time around with the Royals.

Nonetheless, that shouldn’t damper what Greinke has meant to the Royals, not just over the past two years, but throughout his career.

Greinke helped put the Royals on the map when he dominated opposing hitters and won the Cy Young in 2009, despite pitching on a 65-97 Royals squad. He continued to be beloved by Royals fans, even though he requested a trade that eventually landed him in Milwaukee in 2011. Lastly, he remained a beloved favorite whenever he visited Kauffman Stadium as an opposing pitcher, though that didn’t happen often due to him playing on primarily National League teams after he was traded away.

2022 and 2023 should be taken with a grain of salt and simply seen as blips on the radar statistically for Greinke in the eyes of Royals fans. If Royals fans look at the resumes of future Hall of Famers in the final years of their careers, they will see similar, sometimes worse, results (look at Detroit’s Miguel Cabrera for example).

He came to bring some fan interest to a losing ball club, and he imparted his quirky wisdom to a slew of young arms in the process (though based on the performance of this 2018 draft class group, I’m not sure it had the “impact” we all hoped).

It was a fun ride the past two years with Greinke for Royals fans, despite the rough statistical results.

At the very least, it gave a chance for Royals fans to forget and move on from that tense winter prior to the 2011 season where Greinke forced Dayton Moore to make a trade, which ended up benefiting both Greinke and the Royals in the long term.

The whole resume of Greinke should be remembered and celebrated, especially with a Hall of Fame enshrinement at the K.

It’s likely that the countdown for that day will begin after Sunday.

Safe to say, as a Royals fan who’s been through thick and thin with Greinke, especially over the past two years, I cannot wait for that day.

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