On Sunday, the Royals swept the Houston Astros at Minute Maid Park.

On one end, it was a meaningless game for a team that has been out of the postseason hunt since the year pretty much started.

As of Monday, the Royals are 54-102 and will need to win two games in their last six to avoid setting a new single-season record for losses. In addition, Kansas City will be competing for the best “odds” to snag a top-three pick in next year’s MLB Draft. A top-three pick in 2024 will help soften the blow of a rough season if that draft position comes to fruition, but it doesn’t help fans forget that the Royals haven’t had a winning season since 2015.

Safe to say, this isn’t exactly what Royals fans were hoping for back in March when owner John Sherman not only changed general managers this offseason but the coaching staff as well.

However, the month of September has been a nice positive end to what has been a frustrating and agonizing season for Royals fans.

Record-wise, the Royals are 13-8 in September with six games to go in the 2023 season. That also includes a 9-1 record in their last 10 games (they have recently won six in a row against the Guardians and Astros, respectively).

That’s the most wins they have had in a single month this year and is only the second month in 2023 in which they have won double-digit games in a month (that is a bit sad the longer one thinks about it). Furthermore, if they win one more game in their last six, they will clinch their only winning month this season (and that includes a one-game March).

Of course, if anyone asks Royals fans about this September, the answer will be pretty much the same:

They have done this before, why should Royals fans be hopeful now?

I get it. It’s hard to be optimistic in a 100+ loss season, their first 100+ loss season since 2019 when they lost 100+ games in back-to-back seasons (2018 and 2019).

That said, there are a lot of signs that this September is different from the ones that spanned from 2018 to last season.

In this post, I am going to focus on three specific positive developments we have seen from the Royals this month, and why those three signs should give Royals fans hope that positive improvement is on the way in Kansas City (even if it may be more incremental than Royals fans may want).

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The Royals Are Seeing Development From Potential Long-Term Pieces

One of the Royals teams that fans often think of when it comes to a “great September” but lousy follow-up season may be the 2018 squad. That group finished the year 58-104, which was the second-worst record in Royals franchise history (behind only the 2005 group that set the record).

In September though, the 2018 Royals finished 15-13 and scored 131 runs while only allowing 119 runs. It was the only month that season where they had a positive run differential.

That said, let’s take a look at how the Royals hitters performed during that month five seasons ago, via Fangraphs.

Adalberto Mondesi definitely stuck out and seemed primed for stardom after a 1.4 fWAR month to close out the 2018 season. In addition, Whit Merrifield had another solid month (though not really much better than any other month for him offensively that season) and Ryan O’Hearn at least showed he could be productive with the bat (his glove and baserunning left a bit to be desired metrically).

Other than those three though? Alex Gordon was better in September but was clearly in the twilight of his career, as was Alcides Escobar. Salvador Perez only produced a 92 wRC+ and the next best wRC+ after Salvy (and the only one at 90 or above in that category) was Jorge Bonifacio.

Yes, the same Bonifacio who primarily played in Double-A Northwest Arkansas this season.

Now let’s take a look at the Royals’ pitching staff in 2018 during that month.

While there were a few hitters Royals fans could get psyched about, it’s harder to see the optimism from this pitching group (even back in the moment five years ago). Brad Keller looked promising and put up a 2.33 ERA in 27 innings of work in September. Heath Fillmyer, Jorge Lopez, and Jakob Junis also showed flashes of potential, though their HR/FB metrics hinted at some potential issues (which ended up being the case).

After those four pitchers though, it was tough to be too optimistic group, even with a solid September from Ian Kennedy. Kennedy eventually moved to the bullpen the following year, which felt like a disappointment considering he signed one of the biggest free-agent pitcher contracts in Royals history.

Let’s take a look at this year’s Royals hitters and how they’re performing in September.

On a hitting end, the 2023 Royals have been far more impressive in terms of their hitting and their production relative to their age and development.

Edward Olivares probably isn’t a long-term solution in Kansas City beyond this season. However, other than that, every Royals hitter with a wRC+ over 80 has the potential to be a regular in Kansas City in 2024 and perhaps beyond.

On the flip side, let’s look at the Royals pitching this month.

The pitching isn’t as impressive, but it’s nice to see the top performers this month being younger arms and with legitimate numbers. James McArthur is looking like a Wade Davis 2.0. Cole Ragans hasn’t had a great month, but he’s still solid with a 3.42 ERA and 0.4 fWAR this month. Angel Zerpa has the potential to be a shut-down reliever long-term. And Alec Marsh’s 6.10 ERA looks brutal, but his 4.03 FIP is a lot more palatable.

Granted, the rough numbers of Brady Singer and Carlos Hernandez are a bit discouraging, so on a pitching end, this September hasn’t been all that great.

Nonetheless, the Royals have been at least looking to their young arms for production, which wasn’t entirely the case back in 2018, when a lot of the production came from veteran arms who were having “rare” outlier performances (and eventually fell back to earth the following year).

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The Schedule Is A Lot Tougher This Year (Especially Compared to 2018)

The Royals have been a pretty lackluster team this year and that’s putting it lightly. So it’s easy to dismiss this September as another “flash in the pan” month.

However, let’s take a look at the Royals’ schedule this month.

The White Sox have been genuinely bad this year, so their 4-2 record against them this month isn’t exactly groundbreaking.

On the other hand, the Guardians have been the second-best team in the Central division this year, and the Tigers could pass the Guardians in the standings by the end of the season. Furthermore, the Blue Jays and Astros are still in the playoff race, and though the Red Sox and Yankees aren’t, they are still two of the most prestigious teams in baseball (and likely will finish around .500).

Now let’s see how the 2018 September slate appeared.

The only two teams the Royals played that month with winning records were the Guardians (who won the division) and the Pirates (who went 82-79). So it wasn’t like the Royals were playing a ton of tough competition that month.

The Royals also played division foes 21 times. At that point of the year, with the division pretty much figured out at that point (Cleveland cruised to a division title), it’s likely that other teams were simply taking the Royals for granted after playing them so much earlier in the season.

Therefore, the 2023 Royals’ September, though not over, looks a lot better schedule-wise than what Royals fans saw from the 2018 squad.

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The Royals Are Taking Care of Things “Off the Field” As Well

The winning this month is certainly nice, but it doesn’t mean all that much if it appears that it will be the “same old, same old” in the offseason.

Already, the Royals front office has been making the necessary changes to show Royals fans that JJ Picollo’s Royals will be a lot different than what was typically experienced under Dayton Moore. That includes a slew of moves in the front office, specifically the scouting department, that should help Royals fans feel optimistic that better days (and scouting) lie ahead.

In a surprising move, the Royals hired Brian Bridges, formerly of the Braves and Giants, to be the Royals’ new scouting director. Bridges brings not just premium scouting experience and success, but also an analytical mind that meshes well with the modern game.

Here’s what David Lesky of “Inside the Crown” said about the hiring of Bridges.

Keith Law was the first I saw reporting the news and he unequivocally called this a very good hire for the Royals. I stupidly thought I might have a news break when I was told by a source that the Royals had hired him and in my conversation when he told me that basically said they did the absolute best thing they could do to push their drafting forward. I have another source who has some ties to the Giants, where Bridges has been for the last few years, and he is universally respected within that organization too.

Bridges was a pretty central piece in a book by Eric Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel, Future Value: The Battle for Baseball’s Soul and How Teams Will Find the Next Superstar. In it, they did a really nice job of explaining how and why Bridges is the perfect mix of stats and scouts. Anyone who says it’s all in the scouting is wrong. Anyone who says it’s all in the statistical analysis is wrong. Someone who is able to hear the scouts and then evaluate the stats is someone who has a better chance of being successful than someone who isn’t able or willing to do that. When the scouts are able to work together with the analytics team, that’s when magic happens and Bridges does seem to have that ability.

“Crown Jewels: A New Voice, Learning from September and a Chance to Play Spoiler” by David Lesky; Inside the Crown

And that wasn’t the lone front office shakeup the Royals made this month either.

Jim Cuthbert was promoted to Director of Pro Personnel and Daniel Guerrero was also promoted to Director of International Scouting. While both were already in the Royals organization this year, they were recent hires who cut their teeth primarily in the Nationals organization. Considering the Nationals won a title in 2019, and seem further along in their rebuild than Kansas City (thanks to their strong drafting and acquisition of talent via trade), this kind of expertise is a breath of fresh air, especially on a scouting end, which seemed to have stagnated in Moore’s final years.

Of course, Royals fans are frustrated that Lonnie Goldberg and Danny Ontiveros, who have primarily led the draft for the past five years, are still with the organization. To counter, Goldberg is probably somewhere else in the org and in a different role that probably suits his strengths (he’s well respected among his peers even if the draft isn’t his jam).

As for Ontiveros, while the past two year’s first-round picks haven’t hit, one could argue that Ontiveros has done really well as the Royals’ scouting director with their second and third-day picks, which isn’t easy to do. He deserves a little more time to prove himself, and it sounds like he’s stepping away a bit from the draft, which is a good thing.

Bridges has proven to be successful in identifying talent in the draft, especially from his Atlanta days. Thus, Bridges and Ontiveros combining forces on the draft and scouting for the draft here could help the Royals nail the draft in every round, something that really hasn’t happened since the Deric Ladnier days.

It hasn’t been a great season, but the Royals are making good progress in their front office and scouting department.

And I wouldn’t be surprised either if Picollo and the Royals continue to make some moves, especially with new White Sox GM Chris Getz plucking some front-office members and likely scouts from the Royals’ organization (Gene Watson being the primary one).

In this case, it could be addition by subtraction for the Royals both in the short and long term.

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