Even though they have won three games in a row, the Royals’ 47-101 record is still tough to stomach.

KC Star Royals beat writer Jaylon Thompson penned an excellent piece the other day about how the Royals are responding to this difficult season. Even the players themselves shared how frustrating it has been, even in a “rebuilding” season where wins aren’t the “priority”.

“I think however you try to sugarcoat it, when you are talking about one of the worst records in baseball, it would be insulting to fans to say it’s been a lot of positives,” Royals infielder Matt Duffy said.

“What Kansas City Royals must do to avoid franchise loss record, with 15 games left.” By Jaylon Thompson; Kansas City Star

As a Royals fan who tries to look on the optimistic end of things, there’s certainly been a lot fewer positives to be found this season compared to seasons past (even during the Mike Matheny era). On the other hand, this isn’t a club completely bereft of hopeful stories.

In fact, the Royals’ infield development this season should be encouraging to Royals fans not just for 2024 but beyond as well.

In his second full season, Bobby Witt, Jr. has developed into a bonafide superstar, which is what Royals fans were hoping for when he was drafted second overall in 2019.

He’s slashing .278/.320/.500 with a 116 wRC+ and he also has hit 29 home runs, collected 89 RBI, and stole 46 bases in 632 plate appearances. Furthermore, his 5.5 fWAR not only leads all Royals players by a considerable margin, but it also is the ninth-best mark in all of baseball, as of Saturday.

In addition, the Royals’ infield defense has taken considerable leaps forward under new infielder coach Jose Alguacil.

A season ago, Witt and Michael Massey were defensive liabilities in the infield. It’s been a different story in 2023, as evidenced by the OAA data below.

As Royals fans can see, Witt and Maikel Garcia have been not just the Royals’ best defensive infielders, but also two of the best infielders overall in baseball, according to Savant. Massey has also been the Royals’ third-best defender still actively on the roster, as he has improved by eight outs from a season ago.

Without a doubt, Witt will be a centerpiece for this club next year and beyond.

On the other hand, the jury may still be out on Garcia and Massey, especially with the emergence of Nick Loftin, who’s slashing .313/.389/.531 in 36 plate appearances since being called up from Omaha.

While Loftin has positional versatility (he has played second, third, and first so far with the Royals and he played some outfield in Omaha), he may be better suited at either the hot corner or keystone more regularly in 2024. That puts more pressure on Garcia and Massey this offseason since they have been the primary starters at those positions this season, respectively.

So with that said, what will JJ Picollo and the Royals front office do with Garcia and Massey next year and beyond? And how will that affect Loftin and perhaps other infield prospects in the Royals system (a position of depth right now)?

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Will Garcia’s Power Develop?

Honestly, there’s been a lot to be encouraged about when it comes to Garcia’s first full season in the Major Leagues, especially for a 23-year-old.

As the Royals’ primary leadoff hitter this season, Garcia is slashing .275/.324/.371 and has collected four home runs, scored 51 runs, and stolen 21 bases in 111 games and 461 plate appearances. His 87 wRC+ and .303 wOBA aren’t impressive by any means, but due to his stellar defense, he’s posting a 1.9 fWAR this year, which is the second-best mark for Royals position players this season.

It hasn’t been a perfect season by any means for Garcia, especially with the bat, which has gone through some ups and downs over the course of the season.

After the All-Star break, Garcia is only hitting .265 with a .658 OPS in 226 plate appearances. That is down from the .284 average and .731 OPS in 235 plate appearances before the All-Star break.

Garcia’s hitter-performance PLV chart also demonstrates a slide in the second half, though he has been picking it up slightly recently.

These kinds of peaks and valleys are typical for any rookie, especially one who relies on putting the ball in play as much as Garcia. On a positive note, while Garcia is not walking a ton (7.2% walk rate this year), he still is making solid decisions on pitches at the plate.

Here’s a look at Garcia’s Decision Value PLV chart from this season so far, and notice how a lot more stable this chart is compared to his hitter performance.

He did dip slightly below the league average around the 800 to 1200 pitch mark. Since then though, he’s been around the 90th percentile in decision value, and his season average of runs added per 100 pitches is also considerably higher than league average as well.

The main issue for Garcia right now is his power.

In all honesty, with a six-foot, 180-pound frame, it’s unlikely to think that Garcia will turn into his cousin Ronald Acuna, Jr. or Witt. However, there was some hope that he could be an extra-base threat due to his speed and hard-hit data.

According to Savant, Garcia ranks in the 88th percentile in average exit velocity, 91st percentile in hard-hit rate, and 72nd percentile in sweet-spot percentage. Those percentiles demonstrate the batted-ball potential Garcia possesses.

Unfortunately, the power results just haven’t been there.

His barrel rate of four percent ranks in the bottom 11th percentile and his .096 ISO is 70 points below the league average. In addition, his power PLV rolling chart also demonstrates that the power just hasn’t broken out as hoped (and if anything, has regressed).

Then again though, the power regression should be taken with a grain of salt.

If anything, the power slide in expected bases added per BBE is probably a sign of end-of-the-season fatigue, which is to be expected for a rookie in his first full season. Witt after all saw a similar slide in his rookie season.

On the other hand, the hot corner is a position where power production is needed.

Unfortunately, it’s unlikely that Garcia will ever develop that power needed, even with his Gold Glove-caliber defense. If anything, it may be better for the Royals long-term to slide Loftin into the third-base spot next spring or perhaps wait for Cayden Wallace, who made his Double-A debut this year.

And what to do with Garcia?

The Royals have two options: Trade him or perhaps move him to second base.

In terms of the former, Garcia’s profile certainly would have more value at shortstop, where his glove would continue to be elite. That isn’t going to happen in Kansas City, where Witt has a hold of the position long-term. Thus, the Royals could cash in on Garcia while still young and his value is high to gain some valuable prospect capital.

Then again though, trading 23-year-old players with some upside isn’t a move that will be popular with already frustrated Royals fans.

So if the Royals want to move Loftin to third and keep Garcia, that means moving Garcia to second may make more sense.

This then puts Massey’s outlook as the Royals’ starter at the keystone in a predicament.

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Can Massey Make His Case for 2024?

On one hand, it’s been a hard year to fully gauge what Massey’s outlook is in Kansas City after 2023.

Massey’s surface-level offensive numbers aren’t great (though his awful start didn’t help things). In 423 plate appearances this season, he is slashing .224/.270/.380 with a .650 OPS. While he has hit 14 home runs and collected 52 RBI this year, he pretty much has regressed in most major categories.

His wRC+ has dropped from 92 in 2022 to 71 in 2023, and his wOBA has gone from .302 last season to .280 this year. The xwOBA has also regressed from .332 to .318 from 2022 to 2023, respectively. Even though Massey’s huge BABIP dip (.304 in 2022 to .258 this year) partially explains his regression, his expected metrics still demonstrate that he has struggled for the most part in his first full season in the Major Leagues.

Unlike Garcia, who’s been pretty sound with his swing and take decisions at the plate, the same can’t be said for Massey, who’s been far more inconsistent, based on his decision value chart.

With the exception of a stretch around the 700-pitch mark where he was in the 75th percentile in runs added per 100 pitches, Massey has been below league average for most of the year in his decision value chart. His 31.5% chase rate (30th percentile) and 5.2% walk rate (9th percentile) also demonstrate that Massey is a bit too free-swinging to be consistently successful, even with his home run potential.

This bomb for example against the White Sox at Guaranteed Rate Field on September 12th against Touki Touissant shows that Massey could be a regular 15-20 HR threat for the Royals if he can get his plate discipline issues together.

That said, he can’t be a sub-.680 OPS hitter and stay in the lineup every day, even with the possible above-average home-run production for a second baseman.

To make matters worse, Massey’s hitter performance and power PLV charts also hint that Massey hasn’t been giving the Royals much other than home runs on a hitting end down the stretch this season (pay attention to the drops in both charts recently).

I think it’s too early to give up on Massey, especially with the gains he has made defensively this season. He and Witt have proven to be a sensational combo up the middle, with an ability to turn double plays and make infield hits turn into outs, thanks to their chemistry.

In addition, Massey is slashing .262/.311/.619 with four home runs in 45 plate appearances this September. Royals fans need to remember that Massey missed some time in the middle of the year due to a hand laceration injury, and it may have taken some time to fully heal (which could explain his .595 OPS in August).

Nonetheless, the pressure is on Massey in September and next spring.

Massey has the moxie and potential to be a long-term option for Kansas City at the keystone. He has the glove, and the power potential, and he fits in well with this young core, especially Witt and Vinnie Pasquantino, who should help boost this club when he returns healthy in 2024.

But Loftin is certainly making his case that he deserves more playing time opportunities in 2024.

And if Garcia continues to be part of the Royals’ future long-term (i.e. he is not traded this winter), then it could be Massey who becomes the odd man out in Kansas City, especially if progress isn’t made with the bat at the start of next season.

Photo Credit: Cole Burston/Getty Images