In my first post back in a while, I looked at Alec Marsh and his outlook on the mound for next season (and beyond) in Kansas City.
In this second post in September, I wanted to take a look at the position player portion of things, with a specific focus on the outfield.
Similar to the pitching staff, the Royals have struggled to get much production from their outfielders in 2023, both on a hitting and defensive end.
According to Fangraphs, the Royals rank 29th in the league in outfielder fWAR with a -0.2 mark in 2023. That is only better than the Colorado Rockies, whose outfielders as a collective have produced a paltry -0.5 fWAR mark.
To make matters worse, only the Royals and Rockies have posted negative fWAR numbers from their outfielders this season. The Cleveland Guardians, who rank 28th in outfield fWAR, have generated a 2.5 fWAR from their outfielders this year, which is 2.7 points better than the Royals and 3.0 points better than the Rockies.
Thus, Picollo and the Royals front office have a difficult decision to make with how they build their outfield this offseason. The group needs to be better overall if the Royals want to avoid 100+ losses next season.
Will they continue to build from within their farm system, as their outfield depth got boosted by some trades at the August Deadline?
Or will Picollo and his group look to free agency, hoping that a veteran outfielder or two can bring some much-needed overall production both at the plate and in Kauffman Stadium’s spacious outfield grounds?
Regardless of what strategy the Royals employ, there are six current outfielders on the active roster who will be under the microscope over the next few weeks as the season comes to a close. These six players will be looking to solidify their spots on the Royals roster in preparation for next spring.
Those Royals outfielders are as follows:
- MJ Melendez
- Kyle Isbel
- Drew Waters
- Edward Olivares
- Dairon Blanco
- Nelson Velazquez.
Therefore, let’s break down these outfielders on an individual basis, and examine what kind of roster “status” each of these six outfielders carries currently as the Royals finish the 2023 season and begin looking to build the 2024 roster this winter.
“Part of the Equation for Now”: Nelson Velazquez and Drew Waters
If there are two outfielders who Royals fans can likely pencil in for next year, it most likely will be Velazquez and Waters who have been acquired from the Cubs and Braves organizations around the Trade Deadline the past two years.
Velazquez has been one of the Royals’ hottest hitters since he was acquired from Chicago in exchange for reliever Jose Cuas.
Only 24 years old, Velazquez has been known for his power tool in the Cubs system, as he mashed 16 home runs in only 74 games this season in Triple-A Iowa. Unfortunately, due to the emergence of Cody Bellinger, Seiya Suzuki, Ian Happ, and Christopher Morel, he had a hard time finding playing time, and the Cubs were willing to part with him for bullpen help.
Since moving to Kansas City, the Puerto Rican-born outfielder has hit nine home runs in 26 games and 88 plate appearances (he has hit 12 total for the year in 206 plate appearances between the Royals and Cubs). The advanced metrics for Velazquez are pretty eye-popping, even for a small sample.
According to Savant, Velazquez for the season (including his Chicago numbers) is posting a barrel rate of 20.5%, an xwOBA of .376, and a hard-hit rate of 48.7%. That makes him one of the Royals’ most potent hitters as of this moment, as his barrel rate ranks first for Royals hitters with 10 or more plate appearances and his hard-hit rate ranks fourth, according to Fangraphs.
In addition to impressive numbers, his home runs have certainly been easy on the eyes, as evidenced by this one he hit at the K against Steven Matz of the Cardinals.
It will be intriguing to see if Velazquez’s current run is simply a “hot streak” or if he can develop into a full-time outfielder in 2024 and perhaps beyond. Defensively, he’s closer to Jorge Soler than Michael A. Taylor (i.e. won’t win a Gold Glove), but he’s serviceable enough in the corner outfield spots, and his bat more than makes up for his lack of “elite” defense in the outfield.
After a rough 0-for-4 performance in the first leg of a doubleheader against the White Sox (which also included four strikeouts), it’s easy to dismiss that Waters may not be a long-term option for the Royals. He is only hitting .235 with a .693 OPS, which includes eight home runs and 12 stolen bases in 298 plate appearances this year.
On the other hand, Waters continues to be a solid defender who can play all three outfield positions. He ranks in the 87th percentile in OAA, 75th percentile in arm value, and 93rd percentile in arm strength, according to Stacast data. Therefore, it’s easy to imagine Picollo and Quatraro wanting to hold onto Waters, due to his positional versatility in the outfield.
Of course, the Royals need outfielders who can hit consistently, and Waters hasn’t necessarily shown that, as evidenced by his rolling wOBA chart over the course of his career.
In addition, Water’s hitter-performance PLV chart, which can be seen below, demonstrates that Waters taking a bit of a nose dive in terms of run value at the plate over the course of the season.
From the 400-700 pitch mark this year, Waters was producing a runs-added value that was regularly in the 75th percentile. Since then though, he’s seen a tremendous dip in performance, with his season average below the MLB average, according to Pitcher List.
The upside is certainly there though for Waters, especially in the long term.
His barrel rate is still 11.5% this season and he has improved his average exit velocity and hard-hit rate from his first stint in the Majors in 2022. He also has lowered his K rate by 6.1% from a season ago, and it seems like he is trending in the right direction when it comes to swinging and missing, despite rough performances like today.
Here’s a look at his rolling K rate chart via Savant, and notice how his K rate has dipped considerably from where it was back in 2022 and the beginning of 2023.
Waters is still a wild card and needs development at the Major League level (his late start to the 2023 season certainly didn’t help).
That said, I think the Royals are willing to continue to be patient with Waters for at least one more season.
“On the Bubble”: Edward Olivares and Dairon Blanco
Just a couple of weeks ago, it seemed like the Royals were moving on from Olivares, as they opted to option him to Omaha on August 13th.
However, since being called up back to Kansas City on September 1st, Olivares has once again thrust himself into the “future playing time” conversation thanks to a strong performance at the plate.
In the month of September, the 27-year-old outfielder/designated hitter is hitting .458 with a 1.522 OPS which includes four home runs in 25 plate appearances. That’s two more home runs he’s hit this month than June, July, and August combined.
His hitter-performance data also suggests that Olivares can be a special kind of hitter when all things are clicking at the dish and swing-wise.
After hovering around the bottom 10th percentile in runs added per 100 pitches around the 1100 pitch mark, Olivares has suddenly surged up to just above league average in nearly 100 pitches. He also touched the 75th percentile in runs added multiple times before his plunge around the 950-pitch mark, according to Pitcher List.
With 10 home runs, a .265 average, and a .765 OPS, one would think that Olivares should have value, especially for a team that ranks 26th in OPS and 25th in home runs.
Unfortunately, though, Olivares’ defense has been so bad that he’s pretty much unplayable in the outfield (he’s pretty much seen most of his time down the stretch at designated hitter). Here’s a look at his OAA data, via Savant, and safe to say, it’s not a pretty picture.
Yikes. Olivares has not only been worth 16 outs BELOW average since debuting in 2020 but he’s been seven outs below average during this season alone.
It’s hard to justify Olivares as a long-term option in the outfield in Kansas City, especially considering the demands required to play outfield at Kauffman Stadium. Thus, it seems likely that the Royals will try to shop Olivares around this winter, especially if he can finish the year strong at the plate (like he’s doing).
As for Blanco, he’s certainly been a fan favorite in a myriad of ways, which is a big reason why he’s lasted this long in 2023 despite being 30 years old.
Blanco hasn’t hit for a high average (.238), but he’s producing a decent .739 OPS and he’s stolen 18 bases in only 117 plate appearances. Without a doubt, Blanco’s speed has lived up to the hype that was built in Omaha prior to his call-up
In addition, the Cuban-born outfielder has shown decent range in the outfield and decent arm strength as well (he ranks in the 65th percentile in arm strength, according to Savant). So at the very least, he’s demonstrated that he can be a guy who can come in on defense or on the basepaths in the late innings, ala Jarrod Dyson or Terrance Gore.
However, is that kind of profile valuable on a team that most likely will be continuing to rebuild in 2024?
My gut says no, which makes me think Blanco is unlikely to be back in Kansas City in 2024 and could be traded before Spring Training (or DFA’d).
“Likely, But Not Guaranteed”: Kyle Isbel and MJ Melendez
If this was written at the start of August, I would be tempted to think that both Isbel and Melendez could be players thrown in deals this winter. After all, both started the year in disappointing fashion, and it didn’t feel like either guy would be worth a long-term extension either his offseason or next.
That being said, their performances over the last couple of months have demonstrated that Isbel and Melendez will continue to get extended opportunities in 2024 with the Royals, though they will have to get off to better starts at the plate.
Here’s a look at what Isbel has done on a hitter performance end, via PLV’s rolling chart.
After being around the bottom 10th percentile from pitches 400 to 600, Isbel has gotten a groove and become a 75th percentile hitter on a runs-added per 100 pitches end at this point in the season. He also has continued to be an elite outfielder defensively in center field, as he ranks in the 94th percentile in outfield OAA, according to Savant.
That merits some opportunity this Spring, though I do believe it will be him and Waters battling for the Opening Day center field position on Opening Day. If Isbel doesn’t get off to a great start in Cactus League play, he could be regulated to fourth-outfielder status at the beginning of the season or perhaps be a trade candidate by the conclusion of Spring Training.
As for Melendez, let’s take a look at how he’s progressed down the stretch on a hitter-performance end.
Much like Isbel, Melendez has seen a tremendous spike after a rough patch, though Melendez’s jump is much more impressive.
Around the 1250-1500 pitch mark, Melendez was around the bottom 10th percentile in runs added per 100 pitches. Since around the 1750-pitch mark though he has seen it boost from the 25th percentile to well over the 90th percentile.
When Melendez is humming at the plate, he’s been one of the more underrated power hitters in the American League. He still has hit 14 home runs this year despite his .699 OPS and .232 average in 549 plate appearances.
In addition, his hard-hit rates have continued to be well above the league average for the entire season, even during times when he was struggling, according to his rolling charts via Savant.
When Melendez has hit bombs this year, they’re no-doubters like this one below at Kauffman Stadium against the Rays back in July.
On the flip side, when it’s NOT going well for Melendez, he’s one of the worst power hitters in the league who strikes out way too much (28.6% K rate).
Melendez has shown in the second half that he can be a long-term building block on the hitting end for this Royals team (.276 average, .826 OPS, 8 home runs in 203 plate appearances after the All-Star Break). That said, he’s a pretty poor defensive outfielder (2nd percentile in OAA) and he’s not much better as a catcher either.
Those two factors alone make his future in Kansas City hazy and could make him a possible trade candidate if the right offer comes across Picollo’s desk (or email I guess) this winter or spring.
Photo Credit: AP Photo/Charlie Riedel
[…] that was 0.2 points better than his fWAR in 2022, it still isn’t good enough to guarantee Melendez a long-term spot in the Kansas City outfield, let alone a long-term […]