Let’s not beat around the bush here. The Royals are one of the worst if not the worst, teams in baseball currently.
Their record is 29-75, which is only a game better than the Oakland Athletics, as of Thursday. They rank 28th in the league in OPS and 30th in OBP on a hitting end, and on a pitching end, they rank 28th in ERA and 26th in fWAR.
As a Royals fan who follows this team daily and writes about them regularly and year-round (NFL football season is non-existent to me), it is becoming harder and harder to root for this club. It’s also getting harder to be on Twitter (or X, whatever the heck Elon wants to call it) and defend this club as well, especially since other frustrated Royals fans are simply going to vent and dump on this squad without listening to the positives or data (and they have the right to do so as fans).
The Royals are doing plenty wrong right now, and this season has gone more poorly than any Royals fan could’ve imagined at the beginning of the season.
On the other hand, baseball is a long season, and it’s easy to let emotion or frustration get the wrong picture about a particular situation or performance. It’s what makes baseball a more complicated sport than football, basketball, or even hockey. One or two bad moments can easily summarize or color a season in those sports. In baseball though? It’s just a tiny snippet of the full portrait that may not be accurate.
And one of those complicated pictures this season for the Royals has been the club’s baserunning performance.
There’s no question that the Royals have made some blunders on the bases this year. With every pickoff or poor decision that leads to a Royals out on the basepaths, it’s easy to make the widespread assumption that this team lacks the ability and the fundamentals to be successful on the basepaths.
But just because MJ Melendez gets picked off at third in a July game or Nick Pratto fails to advance from third on one out actually mean this club as a whole is a bad baserunning team?
Or are those small sample sizes simply burned into our brains because let’s be honest, as fans, Royals fans especially, we are more apt to remember the crappy moments than the good ones, especially during a 76-loss season thus far?
In past seasons, baserunning was difficult to evaluate because there was a lack of data that accurately measured what it meant to be a “good” baserunning team.
Stolen bases and caught-stealing stats only painted a “part” of the picture after all. Just because a team steals a lot of bases doesn’t necessarily mean they’re efficient at scoring runs. Vince Coleman and Tom Goodwin are prime examples of this.
That said, Statcast data has continued to develop over the years, and this season, Stacast has been able to measure how effective (and ineffective) teams can be when it comes to creating runs on the basepaths, and conversely, preventing runs on defense.
Here’s how people should read the data, according to Statcast:
What is this? A Statcast metric designed to use data to evaluate the performance of baserunners and outfielders in taking or preventing extra bases.
How this works: Based on inputs including runner speed, outfielder throwing arm, runner position on the base paths, and outfielder distance from both ball and bases, an estimated success probability can be created for each opportunity. With that information available for each play, the player’s actual success rate can be compared to the estimated rate and the cumulative metric can be created, accounting both for bases taken (prevented, for outfielders) and chances taken or not. This does account for extra bases taken by batters or runners on batted balls; it does not include stolen bases, as it’s about taking extra bases against fielders. (Read more about this here.)
I will focus on the Royals’ ability to prevent extra base runs in another post (maybe over the weekend). On the other hand, how do the Royals fare this season when it comes to creating extra runs on the basepaths on both a team and individual basis?
Let’s take a look at both sets of data and what Royals fans can take away going forward.
How Do the Royals Fare On the Basepaths As a Team?
According to Statcast, the Royals as a team rank 8th overall in baseball when it comes to “runner runs” created, which measure extra runs created on the basepaths when the ball is in play.
Here’s a look at how the Royals fare not only in “runner runs”, but also in their runs breakdown on advances, plays when they’re thrown out, and on holds.
When breaking down each individual category, the Royals rank 9th in the “advances” category; 13th in the “thrown out” category; and tied for 10th in the “holds” category.
Thus, the Royals’ baserunners thrive and create extra runs on the basepaths due to their aggressiveness. Though they aren’t as strong in the “thrown out” or “hold” categories, which makes sense considering some of the blunders we have seen, their sterling metrics on “advances” is a big reason why they rank in the top 10 in overall “runner runs” this season.
Let’s take a look at how the Royals ranked in baserunning metrics in 2022, via Statcast.
As Royals fans can see in the table above, the Royals were not as proficient on the basepaths a season ago, and that was with fleet-footed veterans such as Andrew Benintendi and Whit Merrifield on the roster.
The Royals last season actually ranked 10th in advances, which isn’t bad. On the other hand, they ranked 24th in “throw-out” runs and 13th in “holds” runs, which were much more sobering ranks.
And hence, we have seen some improvement in baserunning production from this group of young Royals from a season ago which is an encouraging sign. This is despite the common belief among Royals fans that this year’s group is not “as sound” as sound as they were a season ago when they had more veterans in the lineup.
That is a credit to third base coach Vance Wilson and first base coach Damon Hollins who have improved in their ability to coach up this roster on the basepaths and see positive improvement in 2023 on the bases, despite this young squad.
Who Have Been the Royals’ Best Baserunners This Season?
As said, this Statcast metric doesn’t incorporate stolen bases in its metrics, as its primary purpose is to evaluate which teams are adept at creating runs on the basepaths once the ball is in play.
Not surprisingly though, the Royals’ leading base-stealer, Bobby Witt, Jr., also leads in runner runs as well, according to Statcast.
Witt not only leads the Royals in terms of runner runs this season, but he also is tied for second overall in baseball, according to Savant.
Witt has particularly thrived this season in the “advances” category, as he has created four extra runs on plays where he “advances” for the extra base. In addition to the strong run data in the “advances” category, he also is posting an attempt above-average percentage of 10 percent and has a safe percentage per advance attempt of 100 percent as well.
It’s not just stolen bases where Witt excels as a baserunner, but also when the ball is in play. If Witt can get on base more consistently, he could see even more positive results in this runs-creation category in the future, especially with a speed tool that rates as one of the best in baseball.
In terms of those just behind Witt, there is a mix of some surprises and non-surprises, considering their reputation among Royals fans. Nicky Lopez, Drew Waters, and Kyle Isbel fall in the non-surprising camp, as their speed scores and stolen base totals hint at above-average baserunning ability. Michael Massey and Edward Olivares though are a bit more surprising, especially Olivares, as he is more known for his questionable decisions on the basepaths as a member of the Royals.
A surprising one on this list is Maikel Garcia, who actually has a zero-runner run total this year. Garcia was known for his speed tool as a prospect, and he does have 14 stolen bases this season, so one would expect him to be at the top in terms of runner runs.
Surprisingly though, it seems like Garcia tends to be conservative on the basepaths, as his attempts-above-average percentage on advances is zero percent. That is not only tied with Nick Pratto, but is also better than just four Royals players: Freddy Fermin, Matt Duffy, Vinnie Pasquantino, and Salvador Perez.
It will be interesting to see if Garcia will be more aggressive on the basepaths as he gets more MLB time under his belt, especially since his sprint speed ranks in the 71st percentile, according to Savant.
Compared to a season ago, the Royals have let go of some players who dragged down their overall baserunning metrics, including Benintendi and Hunter Dozier, who actually rated worse than Salvy on a runner runs-end last year.
Granted, Lopez has taken some steps back this year, as his 94 safe percentage is lower than his 98 percent mark in that category a season ago. On the other hand, Isbel and Massey have seen a positive improvement in baserunning production, which makes them intriguing long-term options should they figure things out on the hitting end of things over the next couple of months.
What Can Royals Fans Take Away?
We still have two more months of data to be taken, so it will be interesting to see how the Royals fare in August and September, especially after the Trade Deadline.
That said, I think on a baserunning end, the Royals are faring quite well, which is a positive development during a season where not many of those can be found. Furthermore, many of their best baserunners this year are players who could be long-term options in Kansas City, which is also a sign that this strength of the club could continue to be one for years to come.
The Statcast data shows that the “eye test” with the Royals baserunning has been a bit misleading and that the future is bright in terms of talent and perhaps coaching this year.
The Royals were a mediocre baserunning team last year based on the metrics in 2022, and Wilson and Hollins got grief from Royals fans because of it. In fact, many were surprised they kept their roles this season under new GM JJ Picollo and manager Matt Quatraro.
However, Wilson and Hollins have shown this year that many of the baserunning issues a season ago were more due to individual decision-making (particularly Benny and Doz) on the basepaths rather than their coaching.
Of course, the Royals still need to produce on the offensive end at the plate, especially with runners in scoring position to find more overall success. The best baserunners in the world can’t do much if they’re being stranded in clutch situations, and that has been too common a theme among Royals hitters in 2023.
On the flip side though, if the Royals hitters can turn it around, they should be able to garner more extra runs on the basepaths in the future…
When that hitting turnaround will happen though is to be determined, unfortunately (and it doesn’t look like it’s going to happen anytime soon with this group either).
Photo Credit: AP Photo/Nick Cammett
[…] As you may have seen, I have not been able to write much in the past month. My last post was on July 27th, and I talked primarily about the Royals’ performance on the basepaths via Statcast data. […]