We’re less than two weeks away from the MLB Trade Deadline, which is August 1st at 6 p.m.
Last season, the Royals made a splash roster-wise leading up to the Trade Deadline. They not only traded away Andrew Benintendi and Whit Merrifield for a cadre of prospects from the Yankees and Blue Jays, respectively, but they also acquired Drew Waters, Andrew Hoffman, and CJ Alexander from the Braves in exchange for a compensation round pick.
So far, the Royals have been pretty tame thus far when it comes to making “big trades”, though no one can fault the efforts of GM JJ Picollo and the Royals’ front office.
The major trade the Royals have made so far this summer has been trading away Aroldis Chapman for pitcher Cole Ragans and outfield prospect Roni Cabrera. The move is not surprising since the Royals are in last place in the AL Central, and pretty much acquired Chapman to turn him around and flip him for some kind of return. Even though some Royals fans were disappointed that Chapman didn’t net a bigger prospect return, Cabrera has continued to rake in the DSL for the Royals, and Ragans had a sterling debut against the Tampa Bay Rays last weekend.
Other than that, the Royals’ main moves have been minor. They recently DFA’d Amir Garrett, who joins a list of veterans DFA’d by the Royals this season which includes Franmil Reyes, Jackie Bradley, Jr., Hunter Dozier, and Mike Mayers. They did trade Mayers after he was designated for assignment, though, much like Ryan O’Hearn who was DFA’d earlier in the spring, the Royals only received cash considerations in return.
With the season focused on evaluating and preparing for 2024 at this point, there is hope that Picollo and the Royals front office will be aggressive in the next couple of weeks and make a splash roster-wise, much like they did in 2022. In fact, KC Star Royals beat writer Jaylon T. Thompson recently wrote about some candidates who could be jettisoned leading up to the August 1st deadline.
That being said, while I always try to keep a positive spin with the Royals, even amidst a difficult season like this one, I think this will be a much different season for the Royals on the hot stove end of things leading up to the Trade Deadline.
Here are three reasons why Royals fans should keep their expectations relatively modest in terms of trades leading up to August 1st.
The Royals Don’t Have as Many Tradeable Assets As A Year Ago
Last season, the Royals had a lot of talent that they could dangle for prospects. Benintendi and Merrifield ended up getting dealt, but Scott Barlow, Brad Keller, Taylor Clarke, and Josh Staumont were all assets whose names were mentioned around the deadline that did not get traded away.
Unfortunately, the Royals don’t have the position players available who can attract as much as Benny and Whit did a season ago. The most “realistic” tradeable position players on this Royals roster probably are Nicky Lopez and Edward Olivares, who both seem to be superfluous on a roster that is flush with infielders and outfielders, respectively.
Unlike Benny and Whit though, neither Lopez nor Olivares have ever been All-Stars, and their 76 and 93 wRC+ marks demonstrate that they won’t be named to an All-Star team anytime soon. Furthermore, though they have shown flashes of promise over the past three seasons, they most likely are bench players who can fill in every third day or be a pinch hitter or defensive specialist in a key spot.
That kind of profile doesn’t net much in any kind of trade. Most likely, the Royals would be getting some kind of 1-to-1 return, much like the A’s received recently from Baltimore in exchange for Shintaro Fujinami.
Matt Duffy and Dairon Blanco may also be netting some modest trade interest, but it seems less likely that the Royals would receive much more than cash considerations with either guy (though Blanco certainly would be valuable as a “Terrance Gore-type” on a playoff team).
Most of the Royals’ trade capital this Trade Deadline season is in the bullpen, specifically Scott Barlow, who’s been a popular name floated in trade scenarios in the past. With the Royals still years away from contending, keeping Barlow now doesn’t make sense, especially with him being a free agent after the 2024 season, according to Roster Resource payroll data.
On the other hand, Barlow’s surface-level metrics don’t look great, which deflates his value compared to a season or two ago. In 34 appearances and 35 IP, Barlow is posting a 4.89 ERA, a career-high and his highest number in that category since 2020 (when he still technically shared closer duties with Ian Kennedy initially). His xERA of 3.68 is also higher than his xERAs over the past two years, which suggests Barlow has had some bad luck, but still has seen some regression in 2023 nonetheless.
Still, despite his struggles, Barlow has been better for the most part recently, and he could net something decent in return, much like the Orioles did last year with Jorge Lopez from a Twins team desperate for bullpen help.
Other than that though, many of the relievers who were expected to be trade assets going into the season have completely fallen off the radar.
Josh Taylor and Staumont are both on the 60-Day IL and likely won’t return in 2023 (and maybe at all in Staumont’s case). Clarke has completely been a shell of himself in June and July. And Keller hasn’t been able to throw strikes in Omaha during his rehab stint, which makes one wonder if he will be DFA’d when he is eligible to return.
Add that with Garret who is gone and the Royals don’t have many of the “typical” trade candidates on their roster at this moment, either on a hitting or pitching end (especially since it’s unlikely too that they will trade Zack Greinke who seems intent on wanting to finish his career in Kansas City).
While Barlow, Nicky, and Olivares will most likely be dealt by the Deadline, Royals fans shouldn’t hold out hope that they will get the kind of prospect jolt in the system they did in August of 2022.
The Royals’ Most Tradeable Assets Won’t Be Traded At the Deadline (But Still Could in the Offseason)
Barlow, Nicky, and Olivares are the Royals’ most tradeable players, and most likely Royals to be traded at the Trade Deadline.
However, they are not currently the Royals’ most valuable trade assets on the 40-man roster.
Here’s a list of Royals players on the roster that I could envision being the subject of serious trade talks and could net a reasonable return.
- Brady Singer, P
- MJ Melendez, C/OF
- Carlos Hernandez, P
- Nick Pratto, 1B/OF
- Maikel Garcia, 3B/SS
- Salvador Perez, C
While those six would be the Royals’ best trade assets, they won’t be traded at the deadline for a variety of reasons.
For Singer and Melendez, their value is at its lowest right now and is unlikely to go up before the deadline. No team would give a reasonable return for the pair, either individually or together, and they are still young enough to where Royals fans can hope they can rebound in August and September, and thus, become more desirable trade assets in the winter.
Hernandez has gotten some trade attention recently and has had his name thrown out as a possible trade candidate, according to MLB Trade Rumors. On the other hand, the Royals’ bullpen has already suffered since Chapman was traded away, as they lack reliable relief options right now beyond Barlow. It’s hard to imagine the Royals letting both Barlow AND Hernandez go without a surefire option in place to pitch in high-leverage situations.
There are some candidates who could be long-term options in the late innings, such as Will Klein, who pitched in the Futures Game, and Steven Cruz, who just recently got promoted to Omaha. However, it’s likely that they won’t be ready for the Majors until after the Trade Deadline, let alone for a high-leverage role against MLB hitters this season.
Pratto and Garcia also have some trade value, mostly due to the Royals having other options at their positions at the Major League level and/or Minor League level. Vinnie Pasquantino, while out for the rest of the year, probably is a better long-term option at first base than Pratto. Furthermore, the Royals also have Nick Loftin and Cayden Wallace waiting in the wings at the hot corner, and they also have more power upside than Garcia.
On the other hand, I am not sure the Royals will trade them just yet, as they still have a couple more months to raise their value, should they want to go that route. Besides, Pasquantino won’t be back until next Spring either, and honestly, Wallace is a couple of years away, and Loftin may need the rest of the year in Omaha after recently coming off the IL.
Lastly, Salvy’s name is being once again floated out there, this time by Jim Bowden of The Athletic, who thinks San Diego could be a sensible location for the Royals’ All-Star catcher.
In all honesty, trading Salvy makes sense for the Royals, even if it would upset the fanbase. He’ll be a free agent after 2025, and it’s unlikely that the Royals will be competing seriously by then. Furthermore, at 33 years old, he most likely will be continuing to regress over the next two seasons, which means that he’s not the kind of player the Royals can build around over the next two years (that belongs to Bobby Witt, Jr.).
Even though it makes sense for the Royals to trade Salvy now while his value is still high, the Royals can’t afford to trade Salvy now, especially with fan frustration at an all-time high. Trading Salvy now would basically cause an all-time riot in Kansas City, not exactly what the Royals want right now as they build momentum for a downtown stadium in the future.
But this offseason? Once the Royals’ plan gets a little clearer in terms of roster compilation and vision? Well, I think a Salvy trade becomes more realistic.
The Royals Will Be Overshadowed By Other Sellers in the Central
Right now, only the Guardians and Twins seem to be the likely buyers at the Deadline, and even then, it’s unlikely that they will make much of a splash. Both the Twins and Guardians are not the kind of organizations who will sell their prized prospects or young players just for a short-lived postseason run.
That leaves the Royals, Tigers, and White Sox as the main sellers and unfortunately for the Royals, the Tigers and White Sox have more enticing trade assets.
The Tigers have Michael Lorenzen, who was signed to a one-year deal this offseason after a ho-hum 2022 with the Angels. Not only was Lorenzen the Tigers’ All-Star rep, but he also mowed down the Royals today in a 3-0 victory in the series finale at Kauffman Stadium. Already, Lorenzen is generating serious interest from clubs flush with good farm systems.
Detroit also has Eduardo Rodriguez, who’s bounced back after a rough debut season with the Tigers in 2022 and can opt out of his deal after this season. He could be a good fit for any roster looking for part-time pitching help.
The Tigers also have reliever Jaosn Foley and utility player Matt Vierling who could be traded away, though they most likely won’t fetch as much Lorenzen and Rodriguez.
As for the White Sox, things have gone downhill in Pedro Grifol’s first year on the South Side, as they are 41-57. And thus, it is likely that they will be selling at the deadline, with Dylan Cease as the biggest trade asset that could net the biggest prospect package.
The odds do seem a bit low that the White Sox will trade Cease, especially since he is in the prime of his career. On the other hand, if Rick Hahn and the Sox trade him, they will get a trade package that will dwarf anything the Royals receive in return for Barlow, Lopez, Olivares, or anyone else who could realistically be traded.
The Royals will be sellers at the Trade Deadline, but I have a feeling that whatever the Royals do will get overshadowed by the Tigers and White Sox.
Photo Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports
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