Going into 2023, there was hope that the Royals’ pitching staff would see some improvement under new manager Matt Quatraro and the pitching team of Brian Sweeney, Zach Bove, and Mitch Stetter.

While many of the actual pitchers remained the same from the 2022 squad, there was hope that the new analytical approach of the Royals coaching staff would have a bigger impact on the group than the previous regime, led by former manager Mike Matheny and pitching coach Cal Eldred.

Now, the Royals’ pitching staff hasn’t been bereft of success stories.

Aroldis Chapman, who was not in demand after a lackluster finish in the Bronx in 2022, turned himself around and ended up being flipped to Texas for pitcher Cole Ragans (who is coming off a sterling Royals debut) and teenager Roni Cabrera, who’s been looking impressive thus far in the Dominican Summer League.

#PARSlist DSL hitters updated…
New formula-based Top 15, min 30 PA's:
1) Rayner Arias, Perfect PARS score, 100 #SFGiants
2) Eduardo Quintero, 98.8 #HereToPlay
3) Josue Gonzalez, 91.9 #RepBx
4) Ramon Ramirez #WelcomeToTheCity
5) Alfredo Duno #ATOBTTR
6) Roni Cabrera #Royals
7)…

— Rick M (@PARSlist) July 16, 2023

In addition, Carlos Hernandez, who struggled in both a starting and relief role a season ago, has suddenly turned it around to become the Royals’ most impressive reliever in 2023, thanks to his 100 MPH fastball and low 90s splitter. In fact, Hernandez has turned it around so much that his name is being floated as one of the Royals’ most tradeable assets as we approach the August 1st Trade Deadline.

A 99+ MPH fastball, four-plus years of club control, and a 1.81 FIP since the start of May makes #Royals reliever an under-the-radar appealing trade candidatehttps://t.co/tHVfcP0u1B pic.twitter.com/MzgXty0Ys2

— MLB Trade Rumors (@mlbtraderumors) July 19, 2023

Unfortunately, beyond those two stories, it’s been another rough year for the Royals’ pitching staff and the bullpen especially.

According to Fangraphs, the Royals’ relievers are posting the third-worst ERA (5.23) and second-highest BB% (11.6%) in baseball, as of July 19th. In terms of FIP, they fare a bit better at 4.23, which ranks 19th, and their high K% makes up for their walk issues a bit, especially in the K-BB% end (13.1%, which ranks 22nd). However, with Chapman gone, and Barlow likely to follow suit soon, it’s been rough sledding recently for the Royals bullpen and could get even worse in the next couple of weeks.

One of the more frustrating relievers this season has been Taylor Clarke. Not only is Clarke posting a 6.41 ERA in 38 appearances and 39.1 IP but also producing a -0.3 fWAR in relief, which is the worst mark of all Royals relievers with 10 or more IP this season.

After a solid finish to the 2022 season, it was expected that Clarke would be a key reliever in 2023 who could possibly command some kind of trade package by the deadline. Unfortunately, with how he has been pitching recently, it’s unlikely that the Royals will be able to trade him, and not just at the deadline, but perhaps this offseason as well.

Thus, I wanted to dive into Clarke’s struggles, what has gone wrong, and how his struggles compare to the collective struggles of the Royals bullpen overall this season.

Surprisingly, there have been some good things from Clarke this year, which is a reason why the Royals probably haven’t sent him to Omaha (like Collin Snider or James McArthur) or designated him for assignment (like Mike Mayers and Amir Garrett).

Unfortunately, the bad from Clarke has outweighed the good, especially as of late, and his struggles mirror a lot of the issues of this Royals bullpen (outside of Hernandez) recently.

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Rough Recent Stretch Overshadowing (Slight) Improvement

At the surface level, the metrics are bad with Clarke. By no means has he been good as of late and his monthly splits certainly echo that characterization.

Clarke’s 2023 was helped by an immaculate May where he posted a 2.03 FIP and K-BB% of 20.4%. Conversely, his xFIP that month was 4.71, which was higher than the 4.23 xFIP he posted in April. Thus, some kind of regression was to be expected in June and July, especially considering he had a 92.3% strand rate (LOB%), which is unsustainable.

However, what Clarke has seen in June and July has been a meltdown of major sorts.

In June and July, Clarke’s allowed BABIP has been .429 and .533, and his WHIP numbers during those months have inflated to 2.22 and 3.00, respectively. As a result, his shiny LOB% number in May regressed heavily over the next two months, as evidenced by a 69.6% LOB% in June and 41% LOB% in July. Those kinds of strand rate numbers aren’t what one wants to see, especially from a reliever who has the third-highest leverage index for the Royals this season (behind only Barlow and Chapman).

To make matters worse, it’s not just opposing batters squaring up with Clarke’s pitches better over the last couple of months, though that certainly is happening (his HR/9 has been 3.00 and 3.86 in June and July, respectively). And it’s not just batted ball luck either, though his BABIP marks over the past two months have been comically high.

Clarke is also seeing an increase in the number of walks, as it went from 8.2% in May to 11.1% and 14.3% in June and July, respectively. Unfortunately, this trend is a contrast to what he was doing not just last year, but in 2021 in Arizona, as one can see in his rolling BB% chart over his career, via Savant.

What is interesting though is that with the increase in walk percentage this year, especially over the past two months, one would think that Clarke is struggling to throw strikes in general.

However, his plate discipline metrics via Pitcher List show that he is actually generating strikes better than ever, especially on a CSW% end.

Clarke’s zone percentage is slightly down from a season ago at 43.5%, but his O-Swing% is up at 36%, his called-strike percentage is way up from a year ago at 14.6%, and his CSW% of 28.2 would be a career-high if the season ended today.

For context, Clarke’s CSW% last season was one of the worst marks for Royals relievers with 10 or more innings pitched, which can be seen below.

So Clarke has shown progress this season, and he is a better pitcher in some ways than a season ago, even if the ERA doesn’t suggest it.

But these rough past couple of months are overshadowing that, and honestly, Clarke’s confidence may be so shaken that it may be tough for him to get back to that overall form as a pitcher that his 4.73 xERA and 4.88 xFIP is suggesting he could be.

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Regression in Fastball Pitch Quality and Movement

In terms of his ability to locate, Clarke’s CSW numbers hint that he’s been better than what his walk numbers suggest. Furthermore, his 14.3% K-BB% ranks as the 7th-best mark of Royals relievers with 10 or more IP, which also is an encouraging sign that he’s doing a better job of throwing strikes overall compared to a season ago.

That said, Clarke’s pitch quality has seen some regression this season, especially on his four-seam fastball, which is his second most-thrown pitch after his slider.

Here’s a PLV chart comparison of his pitch mix from 2022 and this season.

Last season, Clarke’s four-seamer was his primary pitch, as he threw it 42% of the time. It made sense, as his four-seamer had a PLV of 5.29, which makes it a pretty solid offering on the PLV scale. His 32.8% O-swing% on the four-seamer and 15.3% whiff rate also seem to back up the PLV data that it was a quality pitch.

That hasn’t been the case with the four-seamer in 2023.

On a PLV and PLA end, the pitch has regressed 35 and 1.41 points, respectively. In addition, the O-Swing% has dropped to 29.1% and the whiff rate has also fallen to 12.2%. It’s simply not as quality of a pitch as it was last year, which is a shame considering his changeup is around the same and his slider has gotten better on a PLV end this season.

On a movement end, here’s how Clarke’s pitches in 2023 compare to his 2022 ones, as illustrated in the PLV movement chart.

The four seamers from 2022 and 2023 are pretty similar in terms of horizontal and vertical movement. The big difference though has been primarily velocity, as it is averaging 94.8 MPH this season compared to 95.6 MPH a year ago.

While it’s only a minute difference, hitters have been teeing off on the four-seamer, especially when Clarke makes mistakes in the zone with it. He’s allowing a 27.3% HR/FB% on the four-seamer this year compared to a 9.4% mark a season ago.

Here’s an example of the differences in velocity and command in clips of Clarke’s four-seamer from 2022 and 2023. As Royals fans can see, the results are very different.

The near 97 MPH four-seamer froze up Boston’s Tommy Pham for the strikeout, as it’s located perfectly on the edge of the zone. In the clip from this season though, he not only throws it slightly slower but serves it up middle-middle, and Minnesota’s Edouard Julien makes him pay with a blast over the right-center wall at Target Field.

The regression on the fastball might not be noticed by Royals fans, due to him throwing it 5.8% less than a season ago.

On the other hand, the lack of a reliable four-seamer, especially when he needs to throw strikes in critical counts, has been a big contributor to his overall struggles on the mound in 2023.

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Fastball Issues Throughout the Royals Bullpen?

While Clarke’s four-seamer has seen some regression that has affected him in a negative way performance-wise, he is far from the only one suffering from this issue.

In fact, beyond Hernandez and Chapman, struggles with the quality of relievers’ respective fastballs could be credited as a big part of the Royals bullpen and their overall ineffectiveness as a group in 2023.

Let’s focus on the PLV charts of four relievers who have been up and down in 2023 and were expected to play crucial roles in the Royals bullpen, especially in the late innings.

Here’s a look at the charts of Amir Garrett and Josh Staumont, who no longer pitch innings in Kansas City this year as Garrett was DFA’d last week, and Staumont is expected to have season-ending shoulder surgery.

Staumont’s best pitch on a PLV end was his four-seamer, but it was still slightly below average, and the rest of his pitch mix was quite subpar as well (including his sinker, which was his worst pitch on a quality end).

As for Garrett, he had a slightly above-average slider, his primary pitch, but his sinker and four-seamer were very poor offerings. That explains why Garrett was released even though his ERA wasn’t that bad at 3.33.

Now let’s take a look at Jose Cuas and Barlow, who are still in the Royals bullpen for now.

Much like Staumont, Cuas’ best pitch is a fastball offering in his sinker. On the flip side, his best pitch is still sub-par on a PLV end, his four-seamer is super below average, and his overall PLV is pretty lackluster.

As for Barlow, he’s the only one producing an above-average PLV of this bunch, but his four-seamer hasn’t been great, as it’s producing a 4.85 PLV and 4.27 PLA. To make matters worse, his four-seamer has declined in pitch quality from a year ago, and as a result, his overall PLV chart doesn’t look as impressive this season compared to his one from 2022.

Barlow’s four-seamer is 23 points worse on a PLV end this year, and much like Clarke, that regression has made Barlow less impressive in what could be his last season in Kansas City.

A lot of credit has been given to Sweeney and Bove for helping the Royals pitchers improve some of their secondary offerings.

That said, the Royals are lacking right now guys in the bullpen who can throw fastballs at high velocity and for strikes to boot. This goes to show that the Royals’ bullpen struggles go beyond just Clarke, and need to be addressed in some kind of fashion at the deadline or this offseason.

JJ Picollo and the Royals scouts finding high-velocity fastball throwers, much in the mold of Hernandez, whether in the system or outside of it, would be a good start.

Photo Credit: David Berding/GettyImages