The MLB draft concluded today, and I am going to share my thoughts about the second and third rounds in tomorrow’s post. As a whole, I think the Royals did okay, though, like any draft year, we won’t know the results of this draft for another 2-3 years at the soonest.
Instead, I am going to continue with my Royals Midseason Report, with my focus being on the pitching end of things.
In part one, I looked at seven Royals hitters and the PLV charts that showcased important trends to pay attention to with each player after the All-Star Break. The article got a shout-out from PLV creator Kyle Bland, who also is optimistic about Bobby Witt Jr’s plate patience going forward.
In part two, I take a look at five pitches from five different Royals pitchers from the first half who will be worth watching after the All-Star Break. Additionally, I dive deep into what the PLV charts hint about those particular pitches’ performance thus far.
As a disclaimer, I didn’t look at Zack Greinke, whose PLV data I dove into pretty deeply in a more recent post, Alec Marsh, who doesn’t have enough pitch data yet, or Scott Barlow, who I feel will be traded before the Trade Deadline at the end of the month.
Let’s take a look at those five pitchers and the pitches they sport that are worth paying attention to when baseball resumes on Friday.
Daniel Lynch’s Slider
The big development for Lynch this year has been his changeup, which he has increased the usage of from last season.
In 2023, Lynch is throwing his changeup 28.2 percent of the time, which is 10 percent higher than a year ago, which can be seen in Lynch’s year-by-year pitch usage chart, via Savant.
His changeup has seen some positive gains in terms of effectiveness with the increase in usage. The pitch is generating a whiff rate of 36.8 percent as well as a CSW rate of 29.7 percent, which are both considerable improvements from a season ago, according to Pitcher List data.
As a result, Lynch’s changeup has been one of his better pitches on a PLV end so far this season, but it hasn’t been his best.
In terms of his best pitch by PLV standards, that honor belongs to his slider, which has actually seen a decrease in usage from a season ago.
Even though it’s only thrown 19 percent of the time, the slider is producing a 5.25 PLV and 2.79 PLA, which is better than the 5.02 and 3.91 marks in those respective categories from 2022.
The slider was a good whiff pitch for Lynch last year, as it generated a whiff rate of 33 percent in 2022. It doesn’t have that same swing-and-miss quality as a season ago, as evidenced by the 27.4 percent whiff rate so far this year.
On the other hand, he’s done a much better job of throwing it for strikes, especially early in the count.
Lynch’s slider this year is generating a first-strike percentage of 76.5 percent, which is over 10 percent higher than the 65.8 percent first-strike rate he produced with the pitch a season ago. In addition, he is also painting the pitch better on the edges and hanging it less in the middle of the zone, which can be seen in the heatmap comparison below, via Savant.
It’s minuscule, but Lynch catching less of the middle-middle area with the slider is encouraging, and show that he’s put some work into the pitch quality to make it a better third offering that won’t get hit as hard as often as it was a season ago. That is further confirmed by the slider’s decrease in bad-pitch percentage (32.2 percent to 31.3 percent from 2022 to 2023) as well as regression in ideal contract rate (45.5 percent to 40.7 percent from 2022 to 2023).
Below is also a look at a difference in Lynch’s slider from 2022 and this season in the clip compilation below:
Notice the slider is a bit harder in the 2023 clip in comparison to the 2022 one where he gives up a home run to St. Louis’ Andrew Knizner. Lynch has made the slider a harder offering this year, as it is averaging 87.6 MPH this season in comparison to 86 MPH a season ago.
Lynch’s slider isn’t getting as much attention as his changeup so far this season, but it should be a pitch that Royals fans should be paying attention to in the second half.
Brady Singer’s Sinker
Royals fans are quite aware of Singer’s struggles this season, and the changeup (or lack of throwing it this year) has been the common theme of Royals fans’ frustrations with him this season.
However, on a PLV end, it may be Singer’s sinker, not his changeup, that may be the bigger concern, based on his PLV chart this season.
The changeup on the pitch quality end has been his worst pitch with a 4.66 PLV and 4.86 PLA. On the other hand, the sinker has not been much better, as demonstrated by his 4.68 PLV and 4.82 PLA. That is not good for a pitch that he throws 53 percent of the time this season.
As a result of the decline in pitch quality of his sinker, the metrics on his sinker this year pale in comparison to not just a season ago, but even in 2021, his first full season in the Majors.
Here’s a look at some key metrics on his sinker from 2021 to 2023, via Pitcher List:
- 2021 SI: 57% usage; 35.1 CSW%; 42.1 ICR%; -4.1 Q-BP% (quality minus bad-pitch percentage).
- 2022 SI: 54% usage; 32.0 CSW%; 37.9 ICR%; 4.8 Q-BP% (quality minus bad-pitch percentage).
- 2023 SI: 53% usage; 29.5 CSW%; 41.3 ICR%; -4.3 Q-BP% (quality minus bad-pitch percentage).
As Royals fans can see, Singer has seen a sharp regression in CSW from 2021 to 2022 on the pitch, even though the pitch got better on a Q-BP% and ICR% (ideal-contact rate) end of last season.
A big contributor to the decline in CSW rate can be credited to his declining whiff percentage, as his 10.9 whiff rate on the sinker is a career-low, as of July 11th. He also has seen a regression in the average pitch velocity of the sinker, as it clocks in at only 92.3 MPH, also a career-low.
It’s likely that there may be some causation and not just correlation with those two problems, as the respective graphs mirror each other quite closely, as one can see below in the chart comparison via Savant.
(Scroll left for swing and miss percentage; right for pitch velocity.)
In addition, the lackluster velocity, and poor pitch quality has led to big hits from opposing hitters, even in ideal parts of the strike zone.
Here’s an example of that in his last outing against the Guardians, as his 91.5 MPH sinker was crushed to the opposite field by Josh Bell.
Royals fans can agree that Singer needs to develop a third pitch to be successful in the long term as a starting pitcher.
But right now, he needs to work on getting his sinker right in the second half, because he only possesses one quality pitch at this moment.
Carlos Hernandez’s Four-Seamer
Hernandez has had a renaissance this season in his move to the bullpen.
Since 2022, his ERA has improved from 7.39 to 3.83, his K rate has improved from 13.2 percent to 28.3 percent, and his BB rate has dropped from 11.7 percent to 6.8 percent.
It wouldn’t be surprising to see Hernandez slide into the closer’s spot once Barlow gets traded by the end of the month. As a result of his solid season thus far, manager Matt Quatraro has opted to put Hernandez in more high-leverage outings as of late.
A big reason for Hernandez’s success can be credited to his electric four-seamer, which has been his best pitch on a PLV end by a considerable margin.
For context, let’s take a look at what Hernandez’s PLV metrics looked like on his pitch arsenal a season ago.
The four-seamer has seen a 0.70-point improvement from a season ago in PLV and a 1.93-point improvement in PLA. That’s the biggest jump in any of his pitches from 2022 (though the 0.46-point PLV improvement on the splitter should also be noted.)
The four-seamer not only is averaging 99 MPH this season, but it also is generating a whiff rate of 14.1 percent and a CSW rate of 29.4 percent. Last year, the four-seamer only averaged 96.8 MPH, and the whiff and CSW rates weren’t as impressive at 8.7 percent and 23.5 percent, respectively, according to Pitcher List.
In addition to impressive strike-generating numbers, Hernandez is also limiting hitters’ overall effectiveness on the pitch, even when they do make contact. The barrel rate on Hernandez’s fastball has regressed, as has his xwOBA on the pitch.
Both trends can be seen in the Savant image comparison below. (Scroll left for xwOBA; right for barrel rate.)
Hernandez has also seen an uptick in chase rate on the pitch. In 2022, his O-swing% on the four-seamer was 26.2 percent. This season? It’s 29.1 percent, as hitters have often chased when it’s clocking 100 MPH and up in the strike zone, as was the case in the strikeout of Washington’s Lane Thomas.
Hernandez didn’t develop as a starter as some Royals fans hoped after the 2021 season.
On the flip side, with his electric fastball, he could end up being the closer in Kansas City for a long time.
Jordan Lyles’ Sweeper/Slider
It hasn’t been a good season for Lyles, and the fact that he signed a two-year, $17 million deal as the Royals’ primary free-agent acquisition hasn’t helped things among the Royals fanbase.
That said, if anyone may be due for positive regression, it could be Lyles, whose expected and PLV metrics look a lot better than his surface-level ones.
- 2022 with Baltimore: 4.42 ERA, 5.05 xERA, 4.94 PLV.
- 2023 with Kansas City: 6.42 ERA, 4.87 xERA, 5.02 PLV.
A big reason that Lyles’ overall PLV is better than a season ago could be due to his sweeper/slider, which has been his best pitch considerably on a PLV and PLA end in 2023.
His sweeper/slider possesses a 5.59 PLV and 1.88 PLA and he’s throwing the pitch 23 percent of the time as well, his second most-used pitch. The cutter has been solid too with a 5.38 PLV and 2.46 PLA, but he’s only throwing it six percent of the time.
Now on one end, Lyles’ curve (4.77 PLV), sinker (4.66 PLV), and changeup (4.60 PLV) have been bad, and they are a big reason why Lyles has struggled despite a robust pitch mix. However, if Lyles can lean into his sweeper/slider more, ala Jakob Junis, he could be a more effective pitcher, especially since the quality of the pitch has been so solid this season.
While the pitch quality of the sweeper/slider has been good, the results haven’t followed this season. Lyles is allowing a .345 xwOBA on the sweeper/slider this year, which is up from the .314 xwOBA on the pitch a season ago.
When Lyles keeps it out of the zone, he’s been more effective in getting hitters to chase, which yields more positive results. Conversely, he hasn’t been as successful on sweeper/slider pitches in the zone, as his in-zone swing and miss rate has regressed over the years, which can be seen below in the Savant image comparison.
(Scroll right for chase rate; left for in-zone swing and miss rate.)
In this clip compilation below, Royals fans can see the difference when Lyles commands the sweeper/slider well (second clip against Detroit’s Miguel Cabrera) and when he doesn’t (first clip against Cleveland’s Andres Gimenez).
A good second half won’t justify Lyles’ signing by JJ Picollo. On the flip side, a positive regression in the second half could help the morale among Royals fans.
And the sweeper/slider usage and command could be the key to that success after the All-Star Break.
Austin Cox’s Cutter
Austin Cox is currently in Omaha, but it’s likely that he will be back up with Kansas City after the All-Star Break, especially with their needs in the pitching department this season.
A big key to whether Cox will last as a starter with the Royals or will be transitioned to relief could depend on his secondaries and his ability to get through a batting order effectively more than twice.
Cox doesn’t possess elite velocity, as his four-seamer averages 91.6 MPH, which ranks him in the bottom 13th percentile in fastball velocity, according to Savant. On the other hand, his four-seamer is generating a 36.6 percent CSW rate this season as well as a PLV of 5.07, highlighted by a Q-BP% of 21.3 percent.
The impressive four-seam movement and pitch quality has gotten Cox on the radar on a national baseball end, especially in fantasy circles.
On the other hand, when looking at his PLV chart, one other pitch stuck out to me: his cutter.
The cutter has been one of his best pitches on a PLV end, as it is sporting a 5.53 PLV and 1.96 PLA mark. He also is throwing it 14 percent of the time, which makes it a bit more impressive than his slider, which has a 5.58 PLV and 1.81 PLA but is only thrown three percent of the time.
The cutter is sporting an impressive chase rate of 39.1 percent, as well as a whiff rate of 28 percent and a CSW rate of 27.3 percent, according to Pitcher List. When Cox is commanding the pitch well, it can be a sneaky third pitch in his arsenal.
Much like Lyles’ sweeper/slider though, Cox doesn’t command it consistently enough, and as a result, when it gets hit, it gets hit hard.
Opposing hitters are producing a 22.2 percent barrel rate and 55.6 percent ICR% on Cox’s cutter this season. Those results on the cutter are discouraging, even with the pitch quality potential.
In the pitch heatmap comparison below, it’s easy to notice how much Cox leaves the cutter in the zone on base hits in comparison to swinging strikes. (Scroll left for swinging strikes; right for base hits.)
When Cox can command it well enough to get hitters to chase, he proves to be effective with the pitch due to its above-average shape and quality. Unfortunately, when he doesn’t command it properly, hitters are able to take advantage in a big way.
In his June 28th outing against the Guardians, Cox locates the cutter properly against Jose Ramirez to induce the strikeout in Ramirez’s first at-bat. Later in the game though, Cox leaves the cutter just slightly up, and Ramirez mashes it over the left field wall at Kauffman.
For Cox to stay in the rotation and get more starts this year, some improvement in the command of his cutter will be key, especially as hitters begin to adjust to his four-seamer.
If that growth doesn’t occur though, in the second half, Cox could be headed back to the bullpen on a more permanent basis.
Considering his effectiveness in the role though, that may not be the worst thing for the Royals in the long term.
Photo Credit: Tim Fuller/USA TODAY Sports
[…] That said, despite how rough the first half was, I think there are some positive things to pay attention to with the Royals after the break, which I looked at in my midseason report regarding hitters and pitchers. […]