The MLB Draft is coming up this weekend, as it is set to take place from July 9th through the 11th, with the first round showcased live in Seattle on Sunday night. Even though the draft lacks the pageantry of the NFL, NBA, or even NHL versions, it is slowly becoming a significant event in sports and has come a long way from its “conference call” days.
For small-market teams like the Royals, the MLB first-year players Draft (specifically known as the Rule 4 Draft) is a proven way to help rebuild a team and stock talent in an organization for years to come.
The Royals traditionally have not had the spending power to outbid bigger and more lucrative franchises like the Yankees, Mets, Red Sox, and Dodgers in Free Agency. And thus, identifying talent in the draft, and having them come up to the Majors through their player development system, is much needed for a franchise like the Royals to have success in any capacity at the Big League level.
The Royals won pennants in 2014 and 2015 and a World Series title in 2015 due to their drafted-and-developed stars like Alex Gordon, Eric Hosmer, and Mike Moustakas, just to name a few. However, the Royals have struggled to find consistent success from the draft since 2018, as Kansas City Star columnist Sam McDowell wrote about in his latest column.
As a result of the lack of high-end talent contributing from within the Royals farm system during this latest rebuilding process (in addition to the lack of wins in general), owner John Sherman decided to part ways with president Dayton Moore last offseason and installed lieutenant JJ Picollo in his place.
Moore, who had been with the Royals since 2006, had long been known for his expertise and experience as a scout and executive in the Atlanta Braves system, before coming to Kansas City. And yet, despite that pedigree, Moore and his team were unable to find success during the second rebuilding period after the 2017 season.
This puts an immense amount of pressure on Picollo and scouting director Danny Ontiveros to get these drafts right, especially since there is an intense desire from this fanbase to turn things around in Kansas City sooner rather than later.
There is a lot of talk among Royals fans, writers, and content creators about who the Royals will/should take in the upcoming draft. To be honest, as much as I love the draft, I do not watch nearly enough college baseball or follow preps closely enough to make detailed predictions about what players are targets in this draft, as Star Royals beat writer Jaylon Thompson and Star guest writer Lawrence Price III wrote about in his latest article for the Star.
Despite my lack of draft prospect expertise, I can review the Royals’ most recent draft class in 2022 and their progress in the Royals’ Minor League system this season, what kind of players the Royals “need” in this upcoming draft, and why this draft will be important for Picollo and Ontiveros going forward in terms of turning around this rebuilding ship in Kansas City in the next couple of seasons.
The 2022 Draft Class Is A Lot Better When Looked At As a Whole
The Royals signed 19 of their 20 draft selections from the 2022 MLB Draft. The lone one who didn’t sign was their 19th-round pick Tommy Szczepanski, who ended up honoring his commitment to Virginia Tech (though he had a rough season, as he posted a 9.00 ERA and had a 1.25 K/BB ratio in six innings of work).
However, here’s a look at the other 19 players the Royals drafted last season, and honestly, it’s a pretty deep group in regards to how they’re contributing this season.
It’s been a tough season for ninth-overall pick Gavin Cross, who is slashing .206/.303/.388 with a .691 OPS in 74 games and 324 plate appearances with the River Bandits. Cross has hit 10 home runs and stolen 17 bases on 19 attempts, so I am not ready to totally give up on him as a prospect just yet.
On the other hand, he has struck out 97 times this season, so he needs to improve his contact and plate discipline going forward if he wants to have some success in Double-A and beyond after 2023.
Even though the Royals’ first-round pick has been a slight disappointment this season, Royals fans can take heart in the fact that a lot of their other picks have performed well in their first full professional seasons.
Cayden Wallace, the Royals’ second pick in the 2022 Draft, is posting a .819 OPS and has hit nine home runs and stolen 13 bases in 331 plate appearances in High-A Quad Cities. Fourth-round pick Steven Zobac is tearing it up with Columbia, as evidenced by his 1.74 ERA and 5.09 K/BB ratio in 46.2 IP with the Fireflies.
Third-round pick Mason Barnett is posting a 3.80 ERA and 2.30 K/BB ratio in 64 IP in the hitter-friendly Midwest League (High-A). 11th-round pick David Sandlin has just gotten called up to Quad Cities after posting a 3.38 ERA and 6.08 K/BB ratio in 58.2 IP in Columbia.
Javier Vaz is posting a .755 OPS and has stolen 20 bases in Quad Cities as a 14th-round pick. And Austin Charles, the Royals’ last selection in the 2022 draft, has been the hottest prospect in baseball, as he is currently slashing .300/.333/.538 in 90 plate appearances with the Fireflies.
Royals fans also shouldn’t totally count out infielder Jack Pineda, pitchers Mack Anglin and Hunter Patterson, outfielder Levi Usher, or catcher Hayden Dunhurst. They all have the potential to be breakouts in 2024 or in the second half of 2023, despite slow starts out of the gate in the first half this year.
Therefore, the Royals have 12 guys that could have an impact in the upper minors or even at the Major League level, should they develop properly and the breaks fall their way. That’s a 63 percent possible success rate with their draft picks from last year.
Of course, not all 12 are going to matriculate to the Major League level. That’s a reality for any team, even those with the best player development systems, like the Rays, Orioles, and Guardians.
Even if they get a 50 percent success rate with those 12, that’s about six possible big leaguers from this class alone, which just goes to show that Ontiveros and his team of scouts are identifying the right kind of talent for this organization through the draft.
What Are the Royals’ Needs in this Upcoming Draft?
The Royals need to restock their system with as much talent as possible at all levels, bottom line.
Because right now, Kansas City ranks as one of the worst systems in baseball, according to most prospect experts.
MLB Pipeline ranked the Royals system as No. 29 in their March rankings. The Royals also rank 29th in baseball according to Fangraphs by their own metrics. Prospects 1500 was a little more optimistic about the Royals’ system, as they ranked them 24th in their February rankings.
Nonetheless, this isn’t the 2011 Royals farm system, which was once ranked the best in baseball, according to Baseball America.
The Royals need to be able to continue to find value in the middle and later rounds of the draft, much like they did a season ago in Ontiveros’ first draft. On the other hand, they also need to swing for the fences with their first-round pick.
Since 2018, the Royals have often gone with a strategy of either finding perceivably “safe” or “high floor” prospects (Cross, Brady Singer, Asa Lacy, etc.) or ones that were “under slot” to allow them to spend more of their bonus money in later rounds (Frank Mozzicato in 2021).
There is a lot of talent who could be available at No. 8 who could become higher-ceiling stars, even if they may not have the floors of previous draft picks that the Royals have drafted since 2018.
Kyle Teel, a catcher from Virginia, seems to have that kind of potential, and he is apparently well-liked by the Royals, according to Joe Dyle of Prospects Live.
That said, even if Teel isn’t available, there are other high-ceiling options that could fall to number eight.
Enrique Bradfield, Jr. from Vanderbilt shares a similar profile to fellow Vandy product Vaz, but carries way more upside, especially in regard to power.
Maryland’s Matt Shaw, Stanford’s Tommy Troy, Ole Miss’ Jacob Gonzalez, and Grand Canyon’s Jacob Wilson offer some upside as middle infielders with pop. Furthermore, prep infielders Arjun Nimmala (my personal favorite infield prospect) and Collin Houck offer a bit more risk, though considerably more upside than their college brethren. If the Royals have developed one position well in their system recently, it has been infielders.
The Royals could also go all-in on their pitching development, which has been much better in Picollo’s first year fully in charge.
Wake Forest’s Rhett Lowder could be an option, and he has the College World Series chops to excite this Royals fanbase. Additionally, Noble Meyer, though a prep pitcher from Portland, certainly has an upside to be a No. 1 starter in the Majors, and carries more of a ceiling than Lowder.
I think I’m more high on him than others, especially considering the progress we have seen from Royals pitchers in the lower levels this year. His backstory reminds me a lot of Tim Lincecum, though Meyer’s frame could help him last longer than Lincecum did at the Major League level.
Whatever the Royals choose to do in the draft, they need to look to swing big in the first round, while continuing to keep that aggressive strategy in the later rounds like they did a season ago.
It won’t be easy, but the Royals need to do it in order to rejuvenate this farm system and fanbase.
What Does This Draft Mean for the Royals’ Front Office?
Without a doubt, it’s been an uphill battle for Picollo as he tries to get out of Moore’s shadow this season. While Royals fans wanted someone new in place of Moore, there was a considerable contingent that wanted Sherman to go outside the organization and fully rebuild with a new voice in charge.
I get the impression of Picollo being cut from the same cloth as Moore, especially since they worked together for so long (and Picollo played for Moore when he was a coach at George Mason). However, I truly believe that for Picollo to have success as the Royals GM, he would need to show that he is different in terms of how he approaches building an organization from the bottom up.
In many ways, he’s already doing that. He’s cutting loose veteran players quickly, even if it may disrupt the clubhouse a bit or if they carry money left on their deal. Free agent acquisitions Franmil Reyes and Jackie Bradley, Jr. were let go after slow starts, and Hunter Dozier was designated for assignment, even though he still had one year left on his deal after this season.
Picollo has also been quick to shuffle arms between Omaha and Kansas City in order to keep the pitching staff fresh, and he acted quickly to trade Aroldis Chapman for a deal that included not just MLB-ready talent, but a high-risk, high-upside talent in outfielder Roni Cabrera (the kind of talent that Moore wasn’t open to acquiring at the Deadline in the past).
The big question now will be how Picollo and Ontiveros handle the draft.
Moore and former scouting director Lonnie Goldberg failed to find much production in the draft during their partnership together. Goldberg was eventually moved off the role, and Moore is no longer around, which should give Picollo and Ontiveros the ability to draft in the way they want, without interference from anyone above them.
Last year, it was widely rumored that the Cross selection was an executive decision from Moore, who had a previous partnership with Cross’ father.
Picollo and Ontiveros should have the free reign to draft who they want (unless Sherman intervenes in a Vivek Ranadive fashion).
Now, can they hit on the right picks, especially in the first few rounds?
Safe to say, they cannot whiff on this draft class, much like Moore and the Royals scouting department did in the past with first-round picks like Bubba Starling (2011), Ashe Russell (2015), and Asa Lacy (2020), who have stunted their rebuild since 2018.
Photo Credit: Ed Zurga/Getty Images
The Royals Reporter 
[…] ranked 14th overall by MLB Pipeline, was a surprise pick by the Royals, who had been tied heavily to University of Virginia catcher Kyle Teel and Oregon prep pitcher Noble … before the Sunday night […]
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