With Aroldis Chapman officially a Texas Ranger now (the baseball team; not the Texas law enforcement agency), the Royals bullpen has gotten a little thinner in the late innings. While Chapman didn’t close out many games in his short tenure in Kansas City (only two saves in 33 appearances), he was utilized by manager Matt Quatraro in key and high-leverage situations frequently, especially in the late innings.
According to Fangraphs, on an InLI basis (which measures leverage when a pitcher enters a game), Chapman only trailed Scott Barlow for the highest mark in this category this season, as of July 4th.
Thus, based on Win Probability data, not only was Chapman tabbed to bail out the Royals in key spots, but he was also pretty successful at it for the most part. His 0.32 WPA (win-probability added) was actually higher than Barlow’s (0.16) and the highest of any reliever who primarily pitched in the late innings (Austin Cox has a higher WPA at 0.51 but he has been utilized primarily as a hybrid starter/reliever).
While the Chapman trade was necessary for this Royals franchise as they continue their rebuilding process, it does leave a gap in the bullpen, which was on full display on Monday night, in the Royals’ 8-4 loss to the Twins at Target Field.
Quatraro tabbed Taylor Clarke to help preserve a 3-3 tie in the bottom of the eighth and unfortunately for the Royals, the Twins tattooed Clarke for five runs in the inning,
In addition to Clarke’s recent struggles (more on that in a bit), the Royals also got some rough news as Josh Taylor, who was acquired from the Red Sox in exchange for Adalberto Mondesi, was recently transferred to the 60-Day IL. That leaves the Royals with one less lefty reliever on the 40-man roster in the wake of the Chapman trade.
While Chapman was the first to be traded, it is likely that he won’t be the last, especially with veterans like Barlow and Amir Garrett likely not in JJ Picollo and the Royals’ long-term plans. That said, the Royals still want to be competitive and close out games, even amidst this trying “evaluation” season.
So what can Royals fans expect from the bullpen, especially after the All-Star Break?
Here are three questions that need to be answered by Picollo, Quatraro, and the Royals organization as a whole regarding the bullpen as we approach the All-Star Break.
What Will the Royals Do With Taylor Clarke?
It’s been a tale of two seasons for Clarke in his tenure in Kansas City.
Last season, Clarke got off to an awful start (thanks to getting shellacked on a road trip to Arizona and Colorado), and progressively got better over the course of the season. By the conclusion of the 2022 season, Clarke had posted a 4.04 ERA, a 3.30 FIP, and a 0.7 fWAR in 47 appearances and 49.1 IP, according to Fangraphs.
This season has been the inverse for Clarke thus far. Clarke started off the 2023 season as one of the Royals’ most dependable relievers after Barlow and Chapman. While he did post a 5.54 ERA in March/April, his 4.21 xFIP and 3.00 K/BB ratio demonstrated that Clarke was better than what his ERA showcased during that first month of play.
With more batted-ball luck, Clarke’s ERA improved to 0.73 in the month of May, and most of his other metrics remained stable that month as well. Unfortunately, things started to turn south in June, which Royals fans can see in the monthly splits data below:
In June, the K/BB ratio data fell to 1.80, and the FIP and HR/9 numbers rose to 7.29 and 3.00, respectively, both discouraging signs. And unfortunately, the same trend continued in those categories in July, as his K/BB ratio is 1.00, his FIP is 17.29, and his HR/9 is 9.00.
The numbers for the year aren’t terrible by any means when put into the context of other Royals relievers (the Royals rank 28th in bullpen ERA after all). He’s posting a 2.60 K/BB ratio and 4.77 xFIP for the season in 34 appearances and 35.2 IP.
That said, over the last 14 days, there hasn’t been a Royals reliever worse than Clarke, as he has accumulated a -0.3 fWAR over that time frame, according to Fangraphs.
That is not good for a guy who’s been getting innings in high-leverage situations this season, and not promising for a team that is looking for relievers who can maintain leads in the 7th and 8th innings, especially in the wake of Chapman being traded to Texas.
To make matters worse, it seems like this rough stretch is flummoxing Clarke himself, as he shared with the media in the postgame after the Monday loss.
Originally seen as a potential trade target for opposing teams, it appears like that window may have passed, unless something dramatic can happen over the next couple of weeks.
And thus, one has to wonder what the Royals will do with Clarke to help turn him around. Will they continue to give him innings, but in lower-leverage situations? Or will they utilize his one Minor League option and send him to Omaha to work on things for a couple of weeks?
Considering the issues with the Royals bullpen this season, they can’t necessarily depart with Clarke just yet, especially if they can’t get some kind of prospect/cash return in the process. While “playing the young kids” sounds fun, it’s not like James McArthur, Jackson Kowar, and Brooks Kriske have been much better in relief recently.
That said, the Royals need Clarke to be better than what he’s shown on the mound over the past couple of weeks as well. Hopefully, some kind of decision to help him get out of this rut will happen sooner rather than later.
Who On the 40-Man Can Help?
As stated, the Royals have gotten inconsistent help from McArthur, Kowar, and Kriske, who have all seen time in relief over the past two weeks. Jose Cuas and Nick Wittgren have held it down in mop-up duty, but they have tended to struggle in high-leverage situations, unfortunately. Collin Snider also made his 2023 debut and has looked decent, but much like Cuas and Wittgren, he hasn’t really seen any high-leverage work just yet.
A couple of names who could be intriguing, and still on the 40-man roster are Dylan Coleman and Jonathan Heasley, with the latter just being recently called up today from Omaha.
Coleman made the Opening Day roster but struggled in his brief tenure in Kansas City, posting an 18.00 ERA in five appearances and innings of work before being demoted in mid-April.
A big issue for Coleman was his dip in velocity and continued struggles with control, as his fastball was down 3.3 MPH from 2022, and his K/BB ratio was 0.71 with the Royals in his limited sample this season (which means he walked more guys than he struck out). Thus, it made sense for the Royals to option Coleman down to Triple-A so he could work on those two items.
So far, it seems like Coleman’s has seen the velocity return on his four-seamer, as it is back sitting in the 97-99 MPH range, where it was in 2022.
On the flip side, control has continued to be an issue for Coleman in Omaha.
While he is striking out 36.6 percent of batters in Triple-A, he is also posting a walk rate of 23.7 percent, and his K-BB percentage is 12.9 percent, which is pretty mediocre for a guy with MLB time. That is a big reason why the Royals have opted for other options like Kriske and McArthuer, simply because Coleman hasn’t shown the Royals yet that he can throw strikes consistently at the MLB level at this point.
That said, considering the Royals bullpen ranks 29th at the MLB level in BB/9, Coleman may simply get called up anyways, with the hope that his walk issues can somewhat stabilize at the big league level, or that his strikeout ability will make up for a high number of walks.
As for Heasley, he has made a transition recently to the bullpen, as he has struggled as a starter with the Storm Chasers this season.
In 17 appearances and 74.1 IP, Heasley is posting a 7.41 ERA, which has been amplified by a 1.94 HR/9 rate in Triple-A this season. On the other hand, in his move to the bullpen, Heasley has seen his velocity tick up, which has made him more effective in limited work.
The Royals may not be having high hopes for Heasley, and this may just be a temporary stint until the All-Star Break, where it’s likely Austin Cox (who was optioned to make room for Heasley) will return and re-join the rotation and/or bullpen.
Nonetheless, if Heasley can provide some stability in long relief or mop-up duty, he could force someone like Cuas or Wittgren, both older relievers, off the active roster.
Who are Non-40-Man Options to Watch Out For?
The starting pitching has been bleak in Omaha, but the bullpen has been a different story, as there are three arms that could have an impact after the trade deadline.
Those names are Will Klein, Christian Chamberlain, and Jonah Dipoto, who are all currently pitching with the Storm chasers out of the bullpen.
Klein is posting a 2.25 ERA and is posting a 39.5 percent K rate in eight innings of work with the Storm Chasers thus far. The walks are still kind of high (18.4 percent walk rate), which was an area of struggle for him in 2022, but the stuff is super impressive and will likely translate to the big league level. Klein also was named the Royals’ representative for the Futures Game, which will happen in Seattle during All-Star Weekend.
Chamberlain on the other hand is a sneaky lefty whose ERA doesn’t look good in Omaha (10.38), but it’s a limited sample (4.1 IP) and he was much better in a larger stint in Northwest Arkansas earlier this season (1.99 ERA in 31.2 IP). Much like Klein, Chamberlain can generate the swings-and-misses (16.62 K/9 in Omaha; 13.93 K/9 in Northwest Arkansas), but the walks are an issue (8.23 and 6.25 BB/9 in Omaha and Northwest Arkansas, respectively).
Nonetheless, the former Oregon State product possesses a nasty arsenal with a deceptive delivery that could be tough on left-handed MLB hitters. He could easily slide into Amir Garrett’s role once Garrett (likely) gets traded by the Trade Deadline.
Lastly, Dipoto is an interesting story as he is the son of Mariners GM and former Major League player Jerry Dipoto. However, Dipoto has done plenty to show that he is ready for the big leagues, especially with a 2.70 ERA in 20 innings of work with the Storm Chasers.
In addition, Dipoto is striking out 11.70 batters per nine innings and posting a K/BB ratio of 3.25. That shows that Dipoto obviously sports the MLB-ready control and command that Klein and Chamberlain are missing so far in Triple-A.
Dipoto sports a nasty sinker-slider combo that can get batters to whiff with regularity, as seen in this highlight below against St. Paul, the Twins’ Triple-A affiliate.
Dipoto probably sports a lower ceiling than Klein and Chamberlain, but he definitely has a higher floor and is more MLB-ready than the other two.
If the Royals decide to part ways with some like Wittgren, who had another rough outing on Tuesday, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Dipoto replace him on the 40-man roster after the All-Star Break.
Photo Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports
Let’s blow it up and have fun. Matchups be damned… DFA Clarke, Wittgren, and Cuas and call up Klein, Chamberlain, and Dipoto, I mean, Klein and Chamberlain have the perfect initials for a new KC t-shirt for some upcoming Tuesday, right?
I mean, that will be coming soon enough honestly. Think all those guys will be up come August.
[…] As I was writing this post, the Royals announced that Greinke was being moved to the 15-Day IL due to shoulder tendinitis (which in turn brings up reliever Dylan Coleman, who I talked about in my post yesterday). […]