Baseball can be a funny game sometimes, especially when it comes to the Kansas City Royals.
The Royals have been one of the worst teams in baseball this year, as they have only been slightly better than the Oakland Athletics, who have been actively tanking in a move to suppress attendance in Oakland and move to Las Vegas (yes, it sounds like something straight from the movie “Major League.”)
Despite JJ Picollo taking over the Royals front office from former boss Dayton Moore, a restructured player development team in the Minors Leagues, and a new Major League manager in charge in Matt Quatraro, the results have been disappointing, to say the least, as owner John Sherman echoed in his press conference last Thursday before the Royals’ series finale against the Guardians at Kauffman Stadium.
Just recently, the Royals went through a 1-12 stretch in June which also included a 10-game losing streak. The horrible slew of losses actually sunk the Royals below the Athletics for a brief period of time, as FanGraphs chronicled.
However, after an embarrassing 14-1 loss last Wednesday against the Cleveland Guardians (which I was actually in attendance for), the Royals have won three of their last four games. This also includes winning two in a row against the Los Angeles Dodgers, who won the NL West a season ago, and remain a favorite in the NL playoff race, even though they are struggling a bit more this year than at any point over the past three seasons (remember, they won the World Series in 2020).
It’s only one series, but there were a lot of positive takeaways from the past two games this weekend, which I was also in attendance for (raising my record to 6-12 for the year).
First off, it was nice to see Brady Singer, who’s been struggling immensely this year, follow up on a good performance last week against Cleveland with an even better one on Sunday against an even better-hitting team in the Dodgers. On Sunday afternoon, Singer went seven innings and allowed only one run on four hits, which lowered his ERA to 5.52 for the year (remember, his ERA was 7.48 after a five-run outing against the Tigers at Kauffman on May 22nd).
While Singer did allow three walks, he did strike out four batters, and post an overall CSW rate of 30 percent on 108 pitches, according to Savant. Singer showed solid command of his slider on Sunday, which was demonstrated by his 43 percent whiff rate and 32 percent CSW rate with the pitch against the Dodgers lineup.
While Singer’s progress may deserve another breakdown after his next start, I did want to analyze some positive developments in the lineup that Royals fans saw in the last two wins at Kauffman Stadium.
Let’s take a look at three lineup developments we saw in the weekend series that could help provide a spark to the Royals’ position player production after the All-Star Break, which begins after the Royals’ last road trip of the first half which includes visits to division foes Minnesota and Cleveland.
Maikel Garcia: Leadoff Hitter?
It’s not a surprise to any Royals fan who has been following this team that the Royals have struggled to find production in the leadoff spot this year.
According to Fangraphs, Royals leadoff men rank 25th in wRC+ for the year with an 86 mark. That is only better than the Athletics, Pirates, Tigers, White Sox, and Rockies, as of Monday.
To be fair, Quatraro has certainly done his part to try different hitters in the important spot. Initially, he went with Bobby Witt, Jr. Despite his speed and power combo, Witt struggled in the role, as evidenced by his .280 wOBA and 73 wRC+ at the top of the batting order this year, according to Fangraphs.
The other hitter who has gotten more than 100 plate appearances at leadoff is Nick Pratto, whose patient eye gave the Royals a more consistent on-base threat than Witt, who tended to be more free-swinging (though Witt has improved in this area since the start of June).
Pratto initially added a jolt as the Royals’ leadoff hitter, but even he had cooled off in the spot as of late.
Despite a .344 BABIP hitting leadoff, Pratto posted a .292 wOBA and 81 wRC+ in 121 plate appearances. A big issue for Pratto was that he proved to be “too patient”, as he struck out 37.2 percent of the time in the leadoff position, and also sported a 0.20 BB/K ratio. For context, Witt posted a 0.22 BB/K ratio as a leadoff hitter this year.
With Pratto and Witt obviously better utilized in different spots, Quatraro has now gone to Maikel Garcia to man the top of the Royals’ batting order over the past two games, and so far, it seems to have yielded some early positive results, as evidenced by his four-hit game against Tony Gonsolin as the Dodgers bullpen on Sunday.
For the year, Garcia is slashing .292/.340/.389 with a .729 OPS in 2024 plate appearances. While he doesn’t sport a lot of home-run power (only two home runs this year), he is sporting a 38.8 percent sweet-spot rate and 49.2 percent hard-hit rate this season, according to Savant. He also has stolen 13 bases on 14 attempts, and he seems to be really heating up at the plate over the past few weeks.
Garcia is already one of the Royals’ best defensive players, according to Outs Above Average, and he is only 23 years old, which makes him a possible building block for this Royals team, along with Witt and Vinnie Pasquantino, who’s out for the year as he recovers from shoulder surgery. In addition, the early returns with Garcia in the leadoff spot have been encouraging, as evidenced by his .429 wOBA and 0.50 BB/K ratio in 18 plate appearances.
Safe to say, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Garcia not just see more at-bats in the leadoff during this road trip, but in the second half as well. And that could provide the spark the Royals have been missing all season long at the top of the order.
Kyle Isbel and Drew Waters Shifting Melendez in Outfield
While the Royals’ infield defense has been solid this year on an OAA basis, it’s been a different story in the outfield.
Here’s a look at the Royals’ outfielders have rated so far this season individually by OAA and unfortunately, the results haven’t been great:
The best Royals outfielder this season, according to OAA, has been Jackie Bradley, Jr., who’s no longer with the club. However, the Royals have three below-average outfielders defensively, which includes Pratto, Melendez, and Edward Olivares, who all have produced a -13 OAA combined.
On a positive note, in lieu of Vinnie’s injury, Pratto won’t see much time in the outfield for the remainder of the season. However, that still leaves Melendez and Olivares, who provide offense to the lineup (though inconsistent), and thus, need time in the outfield.
That said, the return of Kyle Isbel should help boost the Royals’ outfield defense.
Isbel is slightly behind Drew Waters on an overall OAA end in CF this season. On the other hand, when looking at other fielding metrics, like UZR, UZR/150, and DRS, Isbel rates a lot more impressively.
On a DRS and UZR end, Isbel leads all Royals centerfielders this season, and his UZR/150 of 26.8 trails only Dairon Blanco. Thus, Isbell allows Waters to move to right field, which is not only a better usage of his skills and ability but also allows MJ to move over to left field, which is much easier than right field at spacious Kauffman Stadium.
Those two moves as a whole make the Royals’ outfield defense a whole lot better. Furthermore, the domino effect also moves Olivares to a primary DH role, which helps maintain his value as a tradeable asset before the deadline, since most, if not all, of Olivares’ trade value comes from his streaky bat.
The only issue will be Isbel’s bat, as he is only posting a .248 wOBA and 50 wRC+ in 111 plate appearances, according to Fangraphs. On Sunday though, he made some progress in the right direction, as he went 2-for-4 and scored two runs in the Royals’ 9-1 win. That included him going first to home on what should’ve been a Lopez single (Nicky stretched it out to a double).
If Isbel can see his hitting trend in the right direction after the All-Star break, then Isbel and Waters could be regular fixtures in the outfield in Kansas City not just in the second half, but in 2024 as well.
More Time for Nicky at Second Base?
The Royals losing Michael Massey to a freak hand laceration has been a blessing in disguise for Nicky Lopez, who has performed well in Massey’s absence.
Over the past 14 days, Lopez has been the Royals’ 5th most valuable player, according to Fangraphs. While he is only hitting .240 over that time span, he is walking 12.6 percent of the time and posting an OBP and BB/K ratio of .387 and 0.80, respectively.
He continues to struggle when it comes to hitting for power, as his average exit velocity is only up 0.8 points from a year ago at 85.7 MPH, and his hard-hit rate is down at 16 percent for the year, according to Savant. That said, he continues to offer Gold Glove-caliber defense in the infield, especially at second base (he’s been two outs above average at the keystone this year), and he has had a penchant recently for coming up with big hits at the bottom of the Royals lineup.
It hasn’t been an easy season for Lopez in his age-28 season. He lost out to Massey for the Opening Day starting second base position and he suffered appendicitis in early May, which put him on the 10-Day IL (due to recovery from an emergency appendectomy).
It’s been easy to forget about Lopez and his presence on this Royals roster, especially during this “evaluation” year where young players have been the priority. That said, he’s offered surprising production in all areas as of late, as referenced by Royals broadcaster Jake Eisenberg.
Now, is Lopez a long-term solution at second base for the Royals? Probably not, for Massey, despite a slow start, has come around a bit offensively and defensively, and obviously adds more power upside, as evidenced by his four home runs this year.
Nonetheless, Massey is still striking out 29.4 percent of the time this year and posting a 62 wRC+ in 204 plate appearances. With Lopez trending in the right direction, and possessing some trade value, it may be wise for Massey to spend a few weeks in Omaha to allow Lopez to up his value with more plate appearances, which could allow JJ Picollo and the Royals to trade him by the July 1st Trade Deadline.
And if Picollo and Quatraro want to keep Massey up, Lopez and Massey could split time at second base, which could give the Royals much-needed depth and flexibility in the infield for the remainder of the 2023 season.
Lopez may not be on this roster in 2024. However, he can do the little things offensively and defensively that can help this team win and stay competitive in games, which in turn will help build much-needed confidence with this young group of position players as they prepare for 2024 and beyond.
Photo Credit: AP Photo/Carlos Osorio
Mr. O’B. should Nicky be traded and should Massey continue to improve with the bat, whom do you see as a utility infielder: Eaton, Nick Loftin, Samad Taylor, or TBD?
I am open to Nicky being traded and think he will be if the Royals get an offer of any interest. I’m guessing that’s a reason why Samad was sent down so that they can get Nicky in the lineup as much as possible this month.
In terms of utility, it’s going to come down between Loftin and Samad IMO. Samad had his moments, but the bat struggled more than we wanted. I think if Nicky is traded, Loftin takes his spot on the 40-man. Loftin does need some time to rehab and recover after missing some time due to injury, so I don’t think he comes up until early August ast the soonest.