I tend to be an optimistic Royals fan. Rarely do I get into a “ranting” mood, whether it’s on this blog, or on Twitter. Honestly, I am not going to tell anyone how to fan, because I know I find it annoying when people try to tell me how to fan.
I understand people “fan” differently. For some, venting and yelling is how they express their fandom. That isn’t me and isn’t going to be me. I guess I just resonate more with Ted Lasso than Skip Bayless.
But I’ll be honest, it hasn’t been easy to be a Royals fan this year.
Last year, I went to 26 games, a new record for me at the K in a single season. The Royals won 20 games and only lost 6 when I was in attendance.
Did that mean I was the “good luck” charm for the 2022 Royals team?
Of course not. However, it meant that many of the games I went to were fun affairs, especially since they came out on the winning end in 77 percent of the game I attended.
This season has been the inverse so far.
The Royals are 4-10 in the 14 games I have been present for at the K. They have lost the last four games I have attended and lost all three games I went to this week (two against the Reds on Monday and Wednesday; one against the Angels on Friday). And it’s not just the losses that stink, but many of the games I have been to have not been the most competitive.
Last night against the Angels was a prime example. It felt like, after the sixth inning, when the Angels got their second run, the game was over. In fact, it probably was over after the Royals got their fourth, and eventually last, hit in the fourth inning (by Matt Duffy nonetheless).
However, when it’s a one-run game, anything can happen. But two runs? It didn’t feel like the Royals night, especially without Vinnie and Salvy in the lineup.
And unfortunately, that’s been a common theme for many games I have been to, especially in losses.
So, as a Royals fan, what is there to look forward to? Why do I keep coming to the ballpark and continue to plan to keep coming to the ballpark, even though the Royals are on pace for a historically bad season?
Here are three things that Royals fans could keep in mind that could help bring perspective and perhaps positivity to this tough 2023 Royals campaign.
Expect the Royals to Continue Tanking…And Improve Their Position in the 2024 Draft
The fact of the matter is that the Royals are in “tank mode”, which is common not just for MLB teams, but also for NFL, NHL, and NBA teams who are going through a rough year and want to improve their outlook beyond the current season.
On one end, “tanking” helps give playing opportunities to younger players who may help in the long term. Furthermore, it also allows teams to get better positioning in their respective drafts, regardless if they have a lottery system or not.
I am going to release something closer to draft time, but I have been doing some analysis about the Royals’ past draft classes and comparing them to the draft classes of other “similar market” clubs. While I will go into more detail in that actual post, the common trend I am seeing is that it’s incredibly important to do well in those first 10-11 rounds of the draft (even in the old 40-round model).
The good teams are finding 3-4 guys regularly who become MLB players in the first 10-11 rounds. The Royals on the other hand haven’t had a good trend of that happening, especially during the 2014-2016 years. That explains why this past rebuild has taken so much longer compared to the first one which took place under Dayton Moore.
That said, the higher the first-round pick, the better chance of that “3-4 MLB player” trend happening.
A 58-104 season in 2018 helped the Royals net the 2nd overall pick in 2019. As a result, the Royals were able to draft Bobby Witt, Jr. second overall. While Witt still has some growth to do as a player, he does lead the team in fWAR with a 1.6 mark and is projected to finish with a 3.2 fWAR season, according to ZiPS projections.
In terms of the first 11 rounds? The Royals also selected Michael Massey (4th) and Vinnie Pasquantino (11th). Thus, the Royals have found MLB players already in that draft during those important rounds, and they could get more production from that draft if Alec Marsh (2nd), John Rave (5th), and Anthony Veneziano (10th) are able to come up to the Majors and contribute as well. Considering where this season is going, it wouldn’t be surprising to see those three get an opportunity after the Trade Deadline.
Veneziano could be one on his way to Kansas City soon considering the Royals’ pitching woes and after a solid start on Friday in Omaha.
While there is a lottery system, the Royals will have a high chance to get a Top-3 pick in 2024, which will be huge for them in terms of acquiring a “top tier” prospect in the Witt mold.
Furthermore, that record will give them a better draft position in rounds after the first, which could help them hit that 3-4 threshold in the first 11 rounds that they need to be a “competitive” MLB small-market franchise in the long term.
Expect the Roster to Change a Lot This Year
The Royals are 18-51 and 16.5 games behind first the first-place Twins, who are 35-35, amazingly. This Kansas City roster hasn’t produced much on both a hitting or pitching end, and that’s a big reason why the Royals sit 33 games under .500, as of Saturday.
That said, while the Royals aren’t going to turn things around anytime soon, I don’t expect JJ Picollo to simply sit pat with this Royals roster for the remainder of the season.
One area of management where Picollo has already differed from Moore is being “transactional” with the roster. Here’s a look at the Royals’ Opening Day lineup on March 30th against the Minnesota Twins at Kauffman.
Franmil Reyes and Hunter Dozier are no longer with the Royals. Jackie Bradley, Jr., who was also on the Opening Day roster, isn’t either. Nate Eaton made the Opening Day roster, but he’s back in Triple-A Omaha and has been optioned there a couple of times, with the latest one resulting in Samad Taylor being called up to Kansas City.
Picollo is making moves to try to improve this roster in both the short and long-term, and he will continue to make the necessary moves in the coming months, whether through trades or even call-ups.
One guy who could help boost this lineup soon is Kyle Isbel, who is on a rehab assignment in Omaha, and had a big night for the Storm Chasers as they garnered their ninth-straight win.
Will the moves suddenly turn around the Royals’ fortunes in the win column?
Probably not dramatically, though I think it will help. It’s obvious this team is in a funk, and sometimes a jolt of fresh talent, even if it’s not of the elite variety, can bring a much-needed boost to a roster.
Expect Taylor and Isbel to help this lineup and defense in the coming weeks, and I imagine guys like Will Klein, Marsh, and Veneziano will be able to come up and help give depth to the pitching staff (and don’t forget about the return of Dylan Coleman, who’s made incremental progress with the Storm Chasers).
And that’s just the tip of the iceberg, as it is likely even more talent will be coming to this roster via trade in the next month and a half.
Expect Some Surprising Players to Breakout
One season I compare this year’s Royals team to is the 2018 club, which was the first year of Moore’s “Process 2.0”. That was another rough season as the Royals went 58-104 and finished in last place in the AL Central.
When one looks at how they did by month in 2018 though, it’s interesting how the Royals fared and how it could mirror this 2023 group.
As Royals fans can see, the Royals in 2018 were really bad in April, June, and July and had a first-half record of 27-68, which is only slightly better than the pace we are seeing in 2023.
That said, things turned around starting in August, as the Royals finished 31-36 in the second-half of the season. That included a 15-13 mark in September which essentially got them out of the top spot in the MLB draft (which eventually went to Baltimore, who selected Adley Rutschman).
How did the Royals suddenly go from “worst team in baseball” to suddenly respectable after the All-Star Break?
They got some surprising breakout performances from some young players that Moore thought he could build around in the long term.
Ryan O’Hearn slashed .262/.353/.597 in 44 games and 170 plate appearances and also added 12 home runs and 30 RBI. That is a personal heater that wouldn’t be matched until 2023…with the Orioles.
Adalberto Mondesi showed signs of being a superstar down the stretch.
In 75 games and 291 plate appearances, a then 22-year-old Mondesi slashed .276/.308/.498 and hit 14 home runs, scored 47 runs, and stole 32 bases. The Royals were hoping Mondesi could be their shortstop of the future after 2018, but injuries from 2019-2022 held him back, and that has also been the case in Boston this season, as Mondesi hasn’t even played in a rehab game yet this season.
Rule 5 pick Brad Keller posted a 3.08 ERA in 47 appearances (including 20 starts) and 140.1 IP. Keller appeared that he could be a long-term rotation piece for the Royals back then at 22 years old. Keller ended up having a solid 2019 and 2020 season but has struggled since 2021 and has been on the IL due to shoulder impingement for nearly a month now (though he is scheduled to come back soon).
Furthermore, even though Jorge Lopez’s overall 2018 line didn’t look good (6.35 ERA in seven outings and 34 IP), he nearly made history in 2018, as he completed eight perfect innings against the Twins late in the season.
Lopez, who was acquired from the Brewers in the Mike Moustakas trade along with outfielder Brett Phillips, showed in that start that he could have No. 2-3 potential with the Royals. It didn’t pan out that way, but it was nice to see the Royals that season on the verge of making history, even if it fell short.
There’s a lot of negativity right now with this club, and rightfully so.
However, there will be players who will surprise and show promise and production when Royals fans least expect it, much like O’Hearn, Mondesi, Keller, and Lopez in 2018.
It will be interesting to see who those candidates will be when we reflect on this club at the conclusion of the 2023 season.
Photo Credit: Nick Wass/Associated Press
Mr. O’B. thx for keeping a stiff upper lift about the misfortunes of our boys in blue. I check in on them everyday and keep telling myself that the black clouds have to lift . .. sometime. PS, do you know an ETA on Yarbourough?
Yep and Saturday was one of those days! And not sure, but I’m hearing that his return could be likely after the All-Star Break.
JJ could simply recycle a bunch of players released from other teams and do this well
I thought they gave up on Meyers a little early
And the question of whether they can’t judge talent, or develop talent, seems to be; both.
I mean, Mayers did accept an assignment to Omaha, which makes me think that Mayers believes he’ll get another shot and just needs to tweak a couple of things in Omaha until after the deadline. I agree with that in theory, but the last thing you want to do is nab guys without Minor League options and they just end up being gone in a couple of weeks. Sure you may hit on them every once in a while, but I would rather give internal guys a shot rather than solely rely on late 20’s early 30’s guys who couldn’t hack it with original clubs.
I would rather re-shuffle the deck; the Royals are going to lose 100 to 120 games, what does it matter? Anybody can pitch those losses, and some of them are going to be UGLY.
The team pissed away $17mill on Lyles, how many rolls-of-the-dice does that get you on other teams, rejects? And maybe just a few of those might turn onto something, a reclamation project that can be flipped for a prospect. It’s important to understand when you have almost nothing to lose.
[…] of work with the Storm Chasers thus far. The walks are still kind of high (18.4 percent walk rate), which was an area of struggle for him in 2022, but the stuff is super impressive and will likely translate to the big league level. Klein also […]