Looking at Brady Singer and His Issues With the Changeup

It hasn’t been a promising June for the Royals or Royals fans and that was particularly amplified in last week’s road trip where the Royals went 0-6 against the Marlins and Orioles, combined.

While the Royals’ punchless offense stuck out (once again), a glaring story of the road trip perhaps was Brady Singer and his struggles on the mound not just in his last start on Saturday, but in 2023 overall.

This offseason, Singer and the Royals went to arbitration, as they were unable to come to a contract agreement before the arbitration deadline. The Royals ended up winning the arbitration case, but many Royals fans were upset that owner John Sherman and GM JJ Picollo couldn’t come to a long-term agreement for a pitcher who proved to be their best starter in 2022 with a 3.23 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in 153.1 IP.

So far, it appears as if the Royals’ decision to not ink Singer to a long-term extension has worked out.

After Saturday’s outing, Singer is posting a 6.58 ERA and 1.59 WHIP in 13 outings and 64.1 IP this season. His K rate is down to 20.3 percent, a career-low, and his BB rate is up to 8.8 percent, his highest mark since 2021 (when it was 9.0). His overall whiff rate is also down to 21.8 percent, which is 1.1 percent down from a season ago, and 3.3 percent down from his rate in 2021.

And it’s not just the walks and strikeouts where Singer is struggling this season.

He’s allowing more hard contact and barrels than ever. His hard-hit rate allowed is 55.6 percent, which places him in the bottom first percentile of the league, according to Savant. His barrel rate allowed is also 11.2 percent, which is not just a career-high, but also places him in the bottom 18th percentile of the league as well.

Unfortunately, home runs like this one from Baltimore’s Gunnar Henderson have been far too common occurrences for Royals fans during Singer’s starts in 2023.

While the hard-hit metrics, lack of whiffs, and increase in walks certainly stick out with Singer this season, I am particularly interested in his changeup usage in 2023.

Because his changeup and lack of a consistent third pitch have long been issues that have dogged Singer at the Major League level since he debuted in 2020.

Over the weekend, I tweeted about Singer’s lack of changeup usage against a primarily lefty-heavy Orioles lineup. As expected, there were plenty of frustrated replies regarding Singer and questions about why he continues to not opt for the changeup, even against lineups where it would make sense for him to utilize it (i.e. lefty-heavy ones).

Thus, let’s take a look at Singer’s changeup this season, how it compares to usage and effectiveness in previous seasons, and what his outlook could be with the Royals beyond 2023.

The Movement Profile of the Changeup (And What Isn’t Working)

After yesterday’s rough outing, Singer primarily mentioned his struggles with his sinker as a big reason why he had a lackluster outing against the Orioles.

It makes sense as Singer walked three batters, and he seemed to struggle to find the strike zone with his sinker consistently. His sinker was by far his worst pitching on a CSW end, as one can see in his pitch breakdown via Savant.

For the year, his sinker is generating a CSW rate of 31.1 percent, which ranks him in the upper 75th percentile, according to Pitcher List. However, the pitch relies heavily on his garnering called strikes on the edges, as it is only producing a 4.5 percent whiff rate in 2023.

Here’s an example of Singer being able to paint that sinker on the glove side edge of the strike zone against Adam Haseley of the White Sox, which in turn produced a backward K to end the inning.

The changeup theoretically should work with that sinker. They both possess similar induced movement, though the changeup profiles a few MPH slower. That difference should make the changeup difficult to pick up from a hitter’s perspective and ideally should either produce a whiff or a pulled groundball on the ground.

Below is an example of Singer’s changeup located and utilized perfectly last season in Omaha, as it produces a whiff on a changeup that drops out of the zone.

To get a better sense of the profile of the changeup and its movement, it will be helpful to take a look at the induced movement chart of Singer’s pitches, both this season and last.

Here’s a look at Singer’s PLV-induced movement profile charts from 2022 and 2023 and pay attention to the sinker and changeup dots, which are orange and green, respectively.

(Scroll left for 2022; right for 2023.)

It’s interesting to note that both the sinker and changeup have slightly different profiles this season in comparison to a year ago, based on that chart.

Both the sinker and changeup have not changed much in terms of horizontal break, as they both sit in that 15-inch arm-side movement range. The bigger difference though is the vertical movement from a season ago.

Last season, the changeup was generating more vertical rise than the sinker. This season, that has flipped with both pitches generating a lot more drop in general.

It’s a minor difference in movement, but it’s worth noting since both pitches have been far less effective than a season ago, especially the changeup.

The changeup is only producing an 18.5 percent CSW rate and a chase rate of 11.1 percent, according to Pitcher List. He ranks in the lower 26th and 3rd percentile in those categories, respectively, which is not a good place to be with this offspeed pitch and its long-term development.

When looking at the heatmaps of his changeup from 2022 and 2023, it’s easy to see why the changeup is failing to generate chases.

The adjustment in the vertical movement has pretty much made the pitch primarily stick just outside of the strike zone on a consistent basis this season. That is a far cry from the changeup heatmap in 2022 when it was a more consistent strike-generating pitch.

(Scroll left for 2022; right for 2023.)

Let’s also compare clips of two changeups from 2022 and 2023.

In the compilation below, notice how the changeup this year is not just harder on a velocity end but has more arm-side diving movement compared to a year ago.

At first glance, it could be easy for Royals fans to think “Hey, the changeup should be a better pitch. It’s fast and has better movement that should get hitters to chase.”

However, let’s take a look at the heatmap of the sinker this season.

See how much more glove-side the sinker is sitting compared to the primarily arm-side zone of the changeup. That’s a big reason why the changeup is not generating many chases or strikes in general. There’s too much of a gap in the zones where both pitches are located, which makes it easy for hitters to lay off changeups out of the zone, or tee off on changeups that are mistakes.

This makes me wonder:

Is Singer throwing his changeup inconsistently because the movement difference on the pitch has thrown him off from a season ago? Could he be less confident in his command of the changeup, and thus, he trusts it a lot less?

The changeup usage difference from 2022 to 2023 seems to hint at that. (Scroll left for 2022; right for 2023.)

It seems like Singer has tried to make some changes to the offspeed pitch in terms of its profile.

Unfortunately, it seems like it has had a counterintuitive effect when paired with the sinker, which is a big reason why it’s been less effective this year on a strike and whiff end, and in turn, gradually utilized less as the season has progressed for Singer.

Rough Batted Ball Metrics on the Changeup (But Is It Too Small a Sample?)

In addition to the changeup being a lackluster pitch on a strike-generating basis, it also isn’t producing stellar metrics on a batted-ball end as well.

Since his rookie season, the changeup has been getting hit harder and more effectively, each and every season, which can be seen in the table below, via Savant:

Nearly every category has regressed considerably since 2020. The average exit velocity on batted changeups was 81.8 MPH in 2020. This season? It’s 98.1 MPH.

Also, it’s easy for Royals fans to notice the huge jump in xwOBA season by season since 2020, which should give further credence that Singer’s third pitch has not been a good pitch for him at the Major League level.

On the other hand, is Singer’s changeup really bad this season? Or has it been just a victim of a small sample size?

Let’s take a look at two things: his batted-ball heatmap on the changeup this season, and actual clips of the hits that Singer has allowed this season.

In terms of the first, check out where Singer has given up contact on the changeup this season via Savant Illustrator.

To be honest, that’s not necessarily a bad area of the strike zone when it comes to contact on the changeup. He’s at least missing on the edges rather than in the middle of the zone, where batted balls typically produce more damage.

When looking at the base hits Singer has allowed on the changeup, he has allowed a double and two singles. That said, they haven’t been “crushed” by any means, and have been of the line-drive variety, not big-flies that would go for home runs.

Here’s a look at two hits he’s allowed on changeups this season, which include a single by Brandon Crawford and a double by Andrew Benintendi.

Honestly, they are not bad pitches. Crawford is super aggressive and just places it in the right area to drive in a run. As for Benny’s double, he just gets it past the third baseman and the pitch was out of the strike zone as well.

Yes, Singer has seen his changeup get hit hard this year (and seen that trend go up over the past few seasons as well).

That said, if Singer focused more on the process of the changeup, and less on the results, one has to wonder if he would help him feel more comfortable to not only throw it more but perhaps experience more success over the long-term with the pitch, especially on a batted-ball end.

Is Singer Destined for the Bullpen Soon?

The results have not been good for Singer, and it seems to be getting worse, especially when one takes a look at his rolling xwOBA chart over the course of his four-year career thus far.

With Singer adamant about keeping a two-pitch mix primarily (at least for now based on the data), Royals fans have to ask the question:

Is it time for the Royals to move Singer to the bullpen?

The Royals have done it with both Carlos Hernandez and Jackson Kowar after disappointing campaigns as starters in 2022.

Hernandez has seemed to thrive in the role, and Kowar is showing some progress in the role at the Major League level this year, though he is still working through the kinks at the Major League level.

A move to the bullpen would benefit Singer in multiple ways.

His sinker would play up velocity-wise in limited work, and he wouldn’t have to change his current pitch mix much, if at all. If anything, he can focus more on the sinker-slider combo, and hone it to be effective in 1-2 inning stints.

But is that what Singer wants in the long term? And are the Royals ready to give up on Singer’s starting outlook after what he showed in 2022?

Those are hard questions for JJ Picollo and the Royals front office to answer and likely won’t know until this offseason at the soonest.

The Royals need starting pitching desperately right now, and if they are willing to trot out Jordan Lyles every five days, they should do the same with Singer, hoping he can make adjustments gradually with each and every start.

Nonetheless, if things don’t get better for Singer for the remainder of 2023, expect those questions to be answered this winter.

This could prompt the Royals to either look outside the org for pitching help (through trade or free agency).

And that could make Singer expendable in Kansas City after this season, especially with him having a few more arbitration-eligible seasons, which may be more trouble than it’s worth for Picollo and the Royals front office.

Photo Credit: Danny Medley-USA Today Sports

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