With the Royals 18-42 after Monday’s 9-6 loss to the Marlins, it has been hard to stay positive about the Royals’ direction for the remainder of 2023.
That negative feeling is especially amplified when one looks at the worst Royals teams in franchise history and how this season’s Royals compare to other Royals teams at the 60-game mark.
On a negative note, the Royals aren’t far off from the 2006 Royals who finished 62-100 under manager Buddy Bell, who is responsible for one of the most famous quotes in Royals history.
Conversely, the Royals somehow are only two games worse than where last year’s group was after 60 games. Remember, the 2022 Royals had established veterans like Whit Merrifield, Andrew Benintendi, Michael A. Taylor, and Carlos Santana in the lineup, while this year’s version has Salvador Perez as the only real veteran in the lineup after Hunter Dozier was designated for assignment last month.
So while it is easy to think this is going to be the “worst Royals team” in history automatically, the records show that while this team is bad, it’s not significantly worse than some of the worst clubs in Royals history through 60 games.
Nonetheless, as a Royals blogger who tries to keep an optimistic lens with this organization, I want to be able to write stories and content that can keep things hopeful amidst this rough period for the Royals and the Royals fanbase. Also, I want to add some more continuity to this blog, where content and posts can be more scheduled and organized for those who follow (rather than just me writing whatever I want and when I want).
So, I figured it would be good to dedicate some time each week to a Royals prospect of note who sticks out for one reason or the other. He could be on the cusp of a callup. He could be going through a rough patch, but still showing some promise. He could be key to the future of this Royals organization.
Therefore, every Monday or Tuesday, I will be dedicating a post to the “Reporter Prospect Corner” where those who follow this blog can get some more dedicated Royals prospect coverage once a week.
Now, I’m not going to pretend to be a prospect expert by any means.
Alex Duvall of Royals Farm Report, Preston Farr of Royals Review, and Jared Perkins of Just Baseball do a much better job of covering the Royals in the Minor Leagues better than I do (and much more regularly as well). That said, I want to diversify the coverage on this blog, and dedicating some space weekly to prospects is a good area to start.
In this initial post in the “Reporter Prospect Corner”, I am going to take a look at Gavin Cross, the Royals’ top prospect according to most prospect experts in the preseason (including Pipeline; Baseball America, and Prospects 1500), who has gotten off to a slow start to the 2023 season in Quad Cities but has been heating up over the past month of play.
Why Was Cross Hyped Going Into 2023?
Cross was drafted 9th overall by the Royals in the 2022 MLB draft after three solid seasons at Virginia Tech. The 9th pick in the draft is always a tough spot to draft out of, and there certainly was a case in the eyes of many Royals fans and content creators that the Royals should’ve drafted someone else. Popular choices included Jace Jung (the younger brother of Texas’ Josh) who went 12th overall to the Tigers and Cam Collier (son of former Major Leaguer Lou) who went 18th overall to the Reds.
Nonetheless, Cross was profiled by most scouts as a polished college hitter who could move quickly in the Royals system. He certainly proved that in his final season with the Hokies, as he slashed .328/.411/.660 with 17 home runs, 50 RBI, and 12 stolen bases in 57 games and 280 plate appearances.
Luckily for the Royals, Cross signed quickly and performed well in a limited sample in Low-A Columbia down the stretch, which helped boost him to be the Royals’ No. 1 prospect in the offseason.
In 26 games and 123 plate appearances with Fireflies, the former Hokie slashed .293/.423/.596 with seven home runs, 22 RBI, four stolen bases, and a wRC+ of 174.
As a result of his solid stint in Low-A, Cross did see some time in Cactus League play with the Royals, though it was very limited and probably due to many Royals players opting to play in the World Baseball Classic toward the end of Spring Training.
A highlight for Cross in his limited stint with the Cactus League roster was hitting a home run in Surprise against the Cincinnati Reds on March 14th.
Expectations were high for Cross as he began the 2023 season in Quad Cities, with many Royals fans and experts believing that Cross had a chance to perhaps move up to Northwest Arkansas by midseason depending on how he fared against Midwest League pitching.
What’s Gone Wrong for Cross So Far in Quad Cities?
Despite being the most hyped prospect reporting to Quad Cities, Cross has failed to duplicate the impressive numbers that he posted in Columbia last season.
Going into Tuesday’s game, Cross is slashing .206/.303/.439 with a 110 wRC+ in 49 games and 218 plate appearances. On a positive note, the power continues to be eye-popping for Cross in High-A, as evidenced by his 10 home runs and .233 ISO.
He especially got on a tear starting in May, as eight of his home runs this season have come between May 1st and June 4th (they did not play on June 5th).
Since May 1st, his numbers have been more palatable, though still a bit disappointing considering he was a Top-100 prospect in the preseason by many prospect experts (including Pipeline and Baseball America).
Here is a look at what his splits over that time frame look like, according to Fangraphs.
The .826 OPS, .500 slugging, 11.1 percent walk rate, and 133 wRC+ are all impressive marks for Cross over that timespan. That is especially true when Royals fans take a look at what Cross was producing in the Quad Cities in the month of April.
Obviously, Royals fans will take those May OPS and wRC+ numbers over the .603 and 71 marks that Cross produce in April, respectively. That said, it’s concerning to see that the BB/K ratio only improved by 0.01 points in May, and his K rate also jump by four percent from April to May as well.
In fact, his high K rate is a big reason why prospect experts are concerned about Cross’ long-term outlook. However, some feel that if he can fix that a bit, he could jump back up in the prospect rankings by the end of the season.
I am not sure if the midseason callup to Northwest Arkansas is still in the cards this season (though the Naturals could certainly use his power).
My guess is that JJ Picollo and the Royals front office want him to continue to gain confidence and refine his approach in High-A ball for a decent period of time so he can cut the chases and the whiffs both in the short and long term.
That being said, if the home runs continue and if the K rate can trend down in a couple of months, it isn’t out of the question to think that Cross could have a cup of coffee in Double-A to finish the season, which would be a nice way to end the year after a rough start in his first full season of professional ball.
Why to Still Be Hopeful With Cross
Cross’ strikeout numbers are concerning, but I think a lot of it was due to him pressing after a slow start to the season.
Preston Farr did mention that he has become a bit more of a free swinger this year in comparison to a season ago, but he is showing some progress in his plate discipline in his recent at-bats.
I do think that the combination of his slow start, and the weight of being the Royals’ top prospect by most experts did weigh on Cross a bit in April, and it did carry a bit into May in terms of his over-swinging and strikeouts. On the other hand, I think Cross is settling and adjusting well against High-A pitching and his power and overall metrics over the past 30 days demonstrate that.
In terms of long-term outlook, Cross was a guy I liked but didn’t really “love” by any means.
I had him behind Maikel Garcia in my “2023 Top Prospects to Watch” list, mostly because I liked Garcia’s ceiling if Garcia gained weight and strength, which I still think is in play. Cross to me was always the safer, higher-floor option compared to the Venezuelan-born infielder. In my eyes though, as a likely corner outfielder, Cross sports considerably less upside at the big league level.
Additionally, Garcia has already demonstrated that he can hold his own at the Major League level this year. That has been proven by his defensive play at third base and shortstop as well as his hard-hit ability at the Major League level (only MJ Melendez has a higher hard-hit rate, according to Fangraphs).
Considering Cross is still at High-A ball, he still has a long way to go in terms of matching what Garcia has currently done so far with the Royals at the big league level.
Nonetheless, though I liked Garcia more as the Royals’ top prospect, I still remain hopeful for Cross’ outlook and think Royals fans should as well.
The power is really coming to fruition over the past month, and I think the plate discipline will regress in a positive way as he continues to get more comfortable and shake off the weight of those early expectations.
In May, Cross increased his walk rate by 1.5 percent. I could see his walk rate stay stable while he focuses to chip away at that K rate in the month of June.
And if Cross can have a sub-29 percent K rate by the end of July?
Well, Royals fans may be talking about him being ready for a Royals callup perhaps in August or September of 2024, as long as he can get off to a better start in Northwest Arkansas next season.
Photo Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Mr. O’B, bless you for your determination and positivity. Despite Buddy Bell’s famous comment, I remain optimistic that this core group of players can and will become competitive. Meanwhile, pardon me for not holding my breath.
Thanks Terry. I am trying as well, though I think we will see the Royals move on from some young players, whether it’s in a couple of months or this offseason. Olivares seems like a prime candidate, as his bat just hasn’t been consistent enough to make up for lackluster defense. Plus, with guys like Cross on the horizon, and Samad Taylor and Dairon Blanco in AAA, I think there’s enough depth to make up for losing Olivares.
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