The Royals avoided the sweep on Sunday with an exciting finish as Michael Massey drove in the game-winning run in the bottom of the ninth off of Washington’s Chad Kuhl.
I was there in person for the wild game (MJ Melendez nearly blew the moment after nearly tripping on the way to second after Dominic Smith’s error at first base), and it brought my record in person at Kauffman to 4-6 for the season. While I’m well off the 20-6 pace from a season ago, it’s nice that I have seen a decent number of wins at the K despite the Royals’ record being 16-38 going into Monday’s short road trip to St. Louis.
Starting today, the Royals begin a two-game rendezvous to eastern Missouri as they take on Interleague rivals St. Louis at Busch Stadium. The Cardinals are going through a disappointing season as they sit 24-31 for the year. However, they have been playing much better baseball as of late, and it’s likely that they are looking at this series against Kansas City as a possible momentum-builder for the upcoming month of June.
As for the Royals, they will be finishing up the month of May with these next two games in St. Louis, and it has been an interesting second month of play, to say the least. After a rough month of April that saw them go 7-21 (well, 7-22 if you want to count that one game in March), the Royals have improved their record to 9-16 so far in May.
Even if they get swept in this upcoming two-game series against the Cardinals, a 9-18 record this month would slightly improve from their porous mark in April. Furthermore, in terms of run differential, the Royals scored 21 more runs in May despite playing three fewer games, and have allowed 29 fewer runs this month as well.
Incremental progress is happening in Kansas City, even if it may not be evident to a frustrated Royals fanbase that hasn’t seen a winning season since the 2015 World Series.
With May coming to a close in the next couple of days, let’s look back on three developments for the Royals over the past month, and what Royals fans could be looking forward to in June.
Thoughts on Daniel Lynch’s First Royals Start
The Royals rotation has not been good this season, and that’s putting it lightly. Brady Singer looks like a shell of his 2022 self, and in my most recent post, I argued that manager Matt Quatraro may have to think creatively about Jordan Lyles going forward.
If that wasn’t enough, Codify released the ranking of MLB starting rotations, and the Royals rank 27th in baseball, as of Monday, ahead of only the Rockies, Reds, and Athletics.
Thankfully, the Royals added Daniel Lynch off the IL on Sunday, and Lynch did well in his first start of the 2023 season against the Nationals.
While Lynch did allow three walks and five hits, he minimized the damage against Washington with only two runs allowed.
A big reason why Lynch was able to neutralize a Nationals lineup that had scored 16 runs in the previous two games combined was his ability to generate strikes consistently, whether it was through called strikes or whiffs.
Here’s a look at his exit velocity and CSW data from Sunday’s start and the numbers were promising for Lynch in his first MLB start of the 2023 season:
Notice Lynch generating a whiff rate of 32 percent and only allowing an average exit velocity of 86.5 MPH on batted balls. That’s a good combination for success, even if the called strikes were a bit tough to come by for Lynch in his 2023 debut (notice his CSW rate is a little lower at 28 percent, which is still solid for a starter).
Lynch seemed to succeed with his slider and changeup, which he threw 32 percent and 22 percent of the time on Sunday, respectively. The Virginia lefty generated a whiff rate of 43 percent on the slider and 45 percent on the changeup. It will help him in his future starts to garner more called strikes with the slider, but as a swing-and-miss pitch, it certainly has seen improvement from a season ago.
One thing to notice with Lynch going forward though is his pitch velocity and spin, especially on the four-seamer, which he threw 38 percent of the time on Sunday.
Here’s a look at his overall pitch velocity and spin metrics from Sunday, via Savant:
The fastball velocity was down nearly one MPH from his mark a season ago, but his spin was slightly up by 14 RPM. Lynch didn’t generate a whole lot of whiffs or strikes in general with the four-seamer, as evidenced by the 17 percent whiff rate and 22 percent CSW rate with the pitch against Washington.
Lynch doesn’t need to have an elite four-seamer to be the “ace” of this Royals rotation in 2023.
However, to see some positive developments in four-seam velocity and spin, especially as he gets more starts this season, would be a good step in the right direction, especially for a rotation that is desperate for any kind of consistency.
Who Will Carry This Lineup in June?
The Royals have scored more runs in May than in April, and this is despite playing fewer games and with two more games this month remaining.
Here’s a look at Royals hitters who have 20 or more plate appearances this month, categorized by wRC+, via FanGraphs.
Salvy has been an absolute beast this month. That is evidenced not just by his insane 159 wRC+, but his nine home runs and 19 RBI in 95 plate appearances. It’s not a surprise that Salvy leads all Royals hitters in fWAR this month with a 0.9 mark.
On the other hand, there have also been some surprising developments from guys who struggled in April. Massey is posting a 145 wRC+ and hitting .308 in 76 plate appearances in May. Nick Pratto is posting a 132 wRC+ mark and has two home runs and 11 runs scored in 93 plate appearances. Lastly, MJ Melendez is posting a 101 wRC+ with three home runs, 14 runs scored, and 12 RBI.
Bobby Witt, Jr. has been an interesting case this month. His wRC+ isn’t great at 93 and his batting average and OBP are tough to stomach at .243 and .269 respectively. On the other hand, he has hit five home runs, scored 17 runs, collected 15 RBI, and eight stolen bases in 108 plate appearances. That puts him on pace to put up some historic numbers as long as he stays healthy.
The counting stats are there, but it will be interesting to see if he can get those averages up to help boost his overall value and production. Surprisingly, his defense has been a huge strength of his, and a big reason why he is producing an fWAR of 0.6 in May.
The biggest concerns this month have been Vinnie Pasquantino and Edward Olivares who have seen big dips in wRC+ in May.
Vinnie is only producing a wRC+ of 89 and his OBP is under .300 as well. The walk rate for Vinnie is also down at 7.5 percent, and he is actually producing a negative fWAR at -0.1 this month. This could be just a tough stretch, and his .225 BABIP doesn’t help things. That said, he’s been the subject of extension talks recently, and I’m not sure if those rumors are affecting him at the plate.
As for Olivares, he is tied with Nate Eaton with the worst fWAR this month a -0.4. Olivares’ defense has always been shaky, but it’s his bat that’s been a bigger concern this month.
His 37 wRC+ this month is better than only JBJ and Eaton, and he is also only hitting .153 in 65 plate appearances. Thus, with Drew Waters back, one has to wonder if Olivares could be an option candidate when Kyle Isbel is ready to return.
That said, Olivares is sporting a .149 BABIP despite posting a 42.9 percent hard-hit rate, which is the sixth-best mark for Royals hitters with 20 or more plate appearances this month, according to Fangraphs. Olivares may not be an everyday player, but he could be a nice platoon bat who could provide some spark with his bat when needed, as demonstrated by this blast off of Washington’s Chad Kuhl in the 8th inning:
This will be a big month for Olivares, who is currently hitting .232 with a .691 OPS in 155 plate appearances this season. If his June looks like his May, then it wouldn’t be surprising to see him optioned to Omaha or perhaps let go, via a trade or DFA move by the end of next month.
Can Matt Quatraro Keep the Royals Trending Positively?
It hasn’t been an easy first year for manager Matt Quatraro, and that’s putting it lightly.
Quatraro took over a team that was widely projected to be one of the worst in baseball and so far, the Royals haven’t moved the needle away from that projection by any means. Granted, the Royals have hit into some bad injury luck, especially on the pitching end with Kris Bubic, Ryan Yarbrough, and Brad Keller. That being said, I don’t think a lot of Royals fans were bracing for a 16-38 record and possibly 40 losses by the end of May.
When going onto Royals’ Twitter and social media circles, it seems like the opinions are quite mixed about Quatraro, as Royals Review uncovered in a poll about the Royals manager recently.
43 percent of Royals fans rated Quatraro’s tenure as a C, which was the highest percentage. 29 percent of Royals fans graded him as an A or a B, while 27 percent of Royals fans graded him as a D or F.
Thus, Royals fans are more positive about Quatraro’s tenure so far. However, one has to wonder how those feelings will change by June and July, especially if the Royals stagnate or further regress record-wise over these “dog days” of the MLB season when the weather is hot and the expectations for teams are pretty clear at this point.
Honestly, I rated Quatraro a B because I think he’s doing the best with little available. The pitching hasn’t been good, but Quatraro didn’t acquire Lyles or develop the lack of bullpen depth.
I get that some Royals fans may be frustrated with his bullpen usage at times, but to me, that’s nitpicky.
For the most part, Q puts in his best guys when needed, and the fact of the matter is that this bullpen really has three guys they can depend on (Aroldis, Barlow, and Clarke) and maybe one who is starting to evolve into this status with another strong month of play (Hernandez).
The fact that Royals fans are crying about Q keeping in Singer and Lyles longer than they should have in the past series doesn’t understand how inconsistent this Royals bullpen has been this year. The blame should be on Lyles and Singer for not being able to go beyond the sixth, not Q for failing to go to a middling bullpen that would end up blowing it anyways.
The same goes for Q’s lineup construction.
Mike Matheny kept Whit Merrifield at the top of the lineup despite him no longer being fit for the spot. At least with Q, he was willing to pull Bobby off sooner than Matheny did with Whit and replaced him with some more intriguing options based on matchups (though I think Duffy’s tenure at the top may be done soon). Lineup construction is always so misunderstood anyways, and there have been studies that show that batting order composition may be overrated.
The big key for Q going forward in the next month will not be his bullpen usage or his lineup construction. Rather, it will be how he keeps this young group trending in the right direction, especially on a hitting end.
Can he get MJ and Bobby to fully tap into their superstar potential at the same time? Can he get Vinnie to bounce back after a subpar May? Can he continue to foster this positive growth from Massy and Maikel Garcia? Will he help Waters become a mainstay in this lineup after missing the start of the year due to an oblique injury?
Q is here to keep spirits up and keep pushing and promoting development during a long season. Remember, Brandon Hyde for the Orioles and two 100-plus loss seasons in his first three years in Baltimore, and he would’ve had a third, had the 2020 season not been abbreviated due to COVID.
Royals fans need to not just be patient with this young group, but Q and this coaching staff. These cries that he’s a “bust” and another “Trey Hillman” need to cool off. Joe Maddon or Mike Matheny or Pedro Grifol wouldn’t be having any different kind of impact with this current group (and judging by how it’s going in Chicago, things could’ve been worse for the Royals under Grifol).
The early “Q hate” is simply misguided anger, especially during a rebuilding season when the expectations should’ve been lower, to begin with among the Royals faithful.
Photo Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports
Mr. O’B, Amen re: being patient with Q, but I am puzzled as to why he doesn’t use Hernandez in the rotation as more than just an opener.
Yes, Carlos has been effective in the ‘pen, and yes Lyles, in theory, eats innings. But couldn’t these two be flip-flopped? With the season so far gone, I believe part of the evaluation process should be determining whether Hernandez could become a solid starter.
I get that but I think a big issue is that I just don’t think Hernandez has the stamina that long, and I am not sure how well his pitch arsenal will do over multiple times through a lineup. He’s pretty much a three pitch pitcher now who leans super heavily on the four-seamer. That works in relief, but a lot harder to do as a starter.
I also think Hernandez benefits from having a simpler approach, which works better in relief and I think Q feels the same. I like they’re at least committed to him as one kind of pitcher instead of flip flopping, which messes with his prep. Also, it sounds like they want Hernandez to have more high leverage spots, which is why he’s not opening and Staumont is today.
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