Is Tommy Pham a Fit for this Royals Squad?

The Royals are coming off an underwhelming series in Oakland (their last series with the Athletics in Oakland Alameda County Stadium) as they lost two of three games. A big issue for the Royals in their past series was the hitting, as they only produced nine runs in their three-game set against the A’s.

The Royals’ hitting is doing fine overall. They rank 11th in batting average, 14th in OBP and OPS, and seventh in runs scored.

That said, the offense seems to struggle to find consistency, as their series in Oakland demonstrated. The lineup needs depth to help weather hitters going through slumps, as the Royals are learning with Maikel Garcia and Salvador Perez going through rough stretches at the plate.

Thankfully, Kansas City got some good news today as they activated Hunter Renfroe off the Injured List.

In addition, Michael Massey is on a rehab stint in Omaha and seems to be due to return to Kansas City as soon as the Royals return to Kauffman.

Renfroe and Massey’s return to the Royals lineup will certainly be a boost. However, the offense could utilize another bat, especially in the outfield, which has been a sore spot for the Royals this season.

While MJ Melendez and Kyle Isbel have been showing signs of life on the plate lately, Nelson Velazquez, Adam Frazier, Dairon Blanco, and Garrett Hampson may be too streaky to be dependable as regulars in the lineup. Furthermore, according to Fangraphs, the Royals outfielders rank last in wRC+ with a 71 mark.

Thus, it’s not surprising that White Sox’s Tommy Pham has been mentioned as a trade possibility for the Royals, which could boost the Royals’ lackluster outfield production.

Pham signed with the White Sox in mid-April after he didn’t generate much trade interest this offseason. This is despite posting a 110 wRC+ and 1.9 fWAR last season in 129 games between the Mets and the Diamondbacks.

At 36 years old, Pham is not precisely at the peak of his career. However, he is hitting .276 with a 113 wRC+ in 39 games and 169 plate appearances, and he seems to want to play for a team with playoff aspirations. Pham provided a nice boost to the Diamondbacks last season, and it’s possible that he could provide a similar impact in Kansas City if given the opportunity.

Based on his numbers, the White Sox outfielder makes a lot of sense, considering the Royals’ needs in the lineup and outfield. On the flip side, there have been some concerns among Royals fans about Pham’s “hot-headed” demeanor (to put it nicely) and how it would affect the Royals’ clubhouse.

Is Pham worth JJ Picollo taking a flier on? Or should the Royals pass and look at other options on the trade market?

Let’s examine what Pham could bring to the Royals roster and whether his “issues” would affect this squad’s momentum. After all, this squad has been looking to make the postseason for the first time since 2015, and the Royals need players to help them reach that goal.

Pham’s Bat Still As Solid As Ever

Pham is the kind of hitter who may not be elite in any category but does many things well. That is quite evident in his Statcast sliders this season, which show him having a solid year at the plate with the White Sox in many categories.

A quality of Pham’s that mainly sticks out is his plate discipline.

He ranks in the 93rd percentile in chase rate, and his 0.47 BB/K ratio would be tied for fourth with Renfroe on the Royals this season. His Decision Value rolling chart via PLV also shows Pham being above the league average in his decisions at the plate. Additionally, he has recently seen a positive spike in decision value+, which has only added to his trade value.

An issue for Pham is that he isn’t barreling or hitting the ball as hard as in years past.

His 5.9% barrel rate is 4.8% lower than a season ago, and his 38.1% hard-hit rate is 11% lower as well. However, he did get off to a late start this year and suffered an ankle injury that put him on the IL. If Royals fans look at his Power PLV rolling char this season, he seemed to be turning a corner in the power category until he went on the IL on June 3rd.

It wouldn’t be surprising to see Pham rebound in the next couple of weeks once he’s fully healthy and recovered (he was just activated on June 14th). This season, his launch angle metrics could be a big reason for a rebound soon.

Pham produces an average launch angle of 13.3 degrees on batted balls and an LA sweet-spot percentage of 35.6%. Those are significant improvements from his marks a season ago, as his average launch angle was 5.7 degrees, and his LA sweet-spot percentage was 34.4%.

When looking at his launch angle zone charts from the past two years, Pham has been able to elevate more batted balls regardless of where they have been pitched this season. Last year, he did a good job of launching balls up in the zone but failed in other areas of the strike zone.

2024
2023

An example of Pham being able to elevate the ball better this year can be seen in this clip below from a June 16th game against Diamondbacks pitcher Joe Mantiply. Despite the ball being low and away in the zone, Pham immediately recognized the curveball and quickly got his bat through the zone to hit a line-drive double.

Pham is not the kind of hitter who will add to the Royals’ home run totals in a big way. He may only be a 12-15 HR per season guy for the remainder of his career.

That said, he is showing that he is hitting line drives better than ever. That could work well in a spacious park like Kauffman Stadium, which benefits hitters who can hit the ball hard and into the gaps, based on Statcast Park Factors.

Pham’s Defense May Be Regressing

While Royals fans may still be confident in Pham’s bat, his glove is different.

According to Fangraphs’ Def, he has been a below-average defender every season since 2018, his last season in St. Louis. Statcast has also rated Pham poorly over his defensive outfielder career. According to Savant, he has been 21 runs below average over his career defensively. This year, he’s been two runs below average despite only playing 48 games in the outfield.

On an optimistic note, Pham had an above-average year on a defensive run value end in 2023. It was the first time he sported a positive run value since 2017 when he was five runs above average with the Cardinals.

Granted, I am not sure if Pham will be able to bounce back to those 2017 or even 2023 levels, especially considering he’s already seen some time on the injured list this season. However, the Royals haven’t had great defensive outfield production this year, as shown in their OAA table below via Savant.

Pham wouldn’t precisely boost the Royals defensively in the outfield. On the flip side, considering Hampson and Isbel are the only two outfielders producing positive value this year, Pham wouldn’t be hurting the Royals all that much defensively.

At the very least, he would probably produce something between the levels of Velazquez and Renfroe, which would be tolerable as long as Pham’s bat continues to be effective from Chicago.

Should Royals Fans Worry About Pham Affecting the Chemistry?

Statistically, Pham makes a lot of sense for the Royals right now.

He can hit effectively, and he is tolerable enough defensively. Furthermore, he would likely only be a rest-of-the-year option since he’s only on a one-year deal with the White Sox and would be a free agent after the 2024 season. Thus, Pham wouldn’t be blocking future outfield options like Tyler Gentry and Gavin Cross.

However, Pham has a history of being hot-headed and clashing with the media and fans. This has given him the reputation of not ” meshing” well in the clubhouse and being an unnecessary distraction. When Royals fans search for Pham on Twitter, they may see many people who call him “clubhouse cancer” and comment that his “issues” are why he’s been on five teams in three years.

On the other hand, when we delve deeper into Pham and his history in the clubhouse, it seems that Pham is well-respected by his former teammates and admired for his leadership style and approach to the game.

Pham is not the kind of player who takes days off or dogs it. That attitude or approach may rub some players wrong, especially if they are not used to being called out for giving less than 100 percent.

I think that Royals fans would be okay with that kind of presence in the clubhouse, especially for a team that is looking to take the next step. JJ Picollo acquired veterans like Renfroe, Frazier, Will Smith, and Chris Stratton because they wanted veterans who could help their young core do the right things to win. That’s why the Royals have been patient with that group even though their production has been entirely on par in 2024. They bring a lot of intangibles that this young Royals group needs.

Pham will only add to that. Furthermore, he will produce at the plate while doing so, which is another plus.

Lastly, another reason why Royals fans shouldn’t buy into the “clubhouse issues” with Pham is that Pham played in Tampa Bay in 2018 and 2019. Manager Matt Quatraro and bench coach Paul Hoover have an intimate history with Pham. If Pham was an issue, we wouldn’t even see the Royals inquiring about Pham. And yet, the Royals are one of the main teams emerging as a possible destination for Pham for the remainder of the season.

If Quatraro and Hoover have blessed Picollo with the opportunity to pursue Pham, then I think Pham will fit in fine in the Royals clubhouse. Quatraro has worked hard to build a solid clubhouse culture over the past two seasons, and he wouldn’t blow it up for one guy (and Picollo works close enough with Q to not let that happen, either).

If Royals fans don’t want Pham, it should be because of the cost of acquiring him. While Pham would obviously help the lineup, the Royals shouldn’t give up any significant trade capital for him. Pham should solely be seen as a 2024 solution, and the Royals need to keep the long-term future in mind, even if it may result in the Royals falling short of the postseason.

Would Chris Getz trade away Pham for a package involving some combination of players like Daniel Lynch, Anthony Veneziano, Devin Mann, Drew Waters, or Nick Pratto? If so, the Royals should make that trade immediately.

If Getz asks for Cross, Blake Mitchell, Ben Kudrna, or Frank Mozzicato? Then, the Royals should pass and continue to look for other options, whether internally or on the trade market.

When they took over their respective positions, Picollo and owner John Sherman told Royals fans they wanted to build a perennial small-market winner like Tampa Bay and Cleveland.

Pham (or any possible trade chip) cannot affect the long-term outlook of the Royals roster and organizational depth, even if it may be tempting to do so because the Royals and Royals fans want to snap their long playoff drought.

Photo Credit: Stacy Revere/GettyImages

8 thoughts on “Is Tommy Pham a Fit for this Royals Squad?”

  1. Ok. So Pham is a bit of a dick. But, he’s a dick that hits and gets on base. Of the possible players ok to trade for him, a one year rent-a-bat, I would not give up yet on Waters. Waters’ scouting report from a couple of years ago paint a certainty as a MLB CF. Prato, I’m iffy on him, but he has figured out hitting before, after struggling. Pasquatch may be a bit brittle, or not. Prato is good insurance.

    My question is: where does Pham fit in the lineup? Do you play Hampson in left and Renfroe in Right? Or do you play Pham in left and Hampson in center?

    If I’m Gets, I would ask for a prospect that is two years away, but a. Certainty as to MLB level tools. That may be a bit much for Pham. Brandon Belt is still a free agent and at 36 not much worse than Pham at the plate or in the field. Plus, he can teach a thing or two on plate discipline to the younger players.

    Like

    1. Yeah, I think for a ROY deal, there aren’t much better options than Pham. Robert is good but he’s going to cost a fortune, and Ward may fall somewhere in the middle between Pham and Robert.

      I get it. The talent is there from Waters but he just had struggled to make contact. His fielding and baserunning I believe are MLB caliber. I know Q said that they want him to go down and work on specific things. So maybe not all is lost? Who knows.

      Pham I think would rotate between right and left depending on matchups. Renfroe has gotten better but Q seems averse to playing him everyday which is good. I could see lineups where MJ, Isbel, and Pham go against LHP (from LF to RF, respectively) and then Pham-Hampson-Renfroe against RHP. Also could see Frazier and Blanco mix in when it allows. Q wants to play a lot of guys and this could help.

      I’m not sure the return, but they have seemingly done well with identifying pitchers. Maybe giving them a Pratto/Alexander type and then a AAA arm like Bowlan or Veneziano? None of those guys are getting opportunities here and they would obviously get opportunity with CHW.

      I get it with Belt, but Belt hadn’t played OF since 2019 and I don’t think he’s any more equipped to do so now. He also struck out nearly 32.7% of the time last year. I also think the Royals are looking more for a right-handed bat as they have enough lefties on the 40-man roster.

      Like

      1. If we limit it to RH hitters, Pham is ok. He is a .260, 20hr guy who walks a lot and doesn’t strike out that much. If Jurickson Profar were to become available, that would be the pick as he can fill in several positions.

        IMPO, if we could troll for solid, albeit unstellar hitters that hit slightly better thsn ,250 with some power and don’t strike out much (high B-B % could be a bonus), you could put a fairly dynamic lineup for not a huge payroll.

        The thing about Beltvthat is frustrating is that he usrd to catch, so footwork should be decent. And as he aged, he should have made a professional effort to add value to his play through improvement of his defense. 36 is not too bad in LF. Most throws are relatively short (I used to play rf by virtue of a good arm) to 2b and 3b, and that ability could make him valuable to a contender late in the season. Samecthing to defensive hit once he got his two hacks. For a hitter, anything over a 5-pitch AB is a “moral victory” as getting to the bullpen is a secondary objective.

        yobjective.yesterday, a good effort went to waste. Today, Marsh pitched a serviceable game. The offense failed. Two hits is pitiful.

        Like

  2. Jonny Gomes in ’15 comes to mind as a comp. Sub .500 OPS but at a minimum Salvy loved him. And he gave one hell of a speech. A speech that,not to put too fine a point on it, was delivered ata World Series post-parade rally.

    Like

Leave a comment