Some intriguing “hot stove” news broke today, as MLB Trade Rumors reported that the Royals have been one of the many teams inquiring about Chicago White Sox reliever Michael Kopech.
Here’s what MLB Trade Rumors said about Kopech and the interest he’s generating on the trade market already, even though we’re a couple of months away from the August Trade Deadline.
The White Sox are one of the game’s few clear sellers with the trade deadline still six weeks out, and teams have been showing recent interest in closer Michael Kopech, reports Bruce Levine of 670 The Score. Among the interested clubs are the Royals, Phillies and Yankees, each of whom has sent scouts to watch the hard-throwing righty in the past few weeks. Levine adds that rival clubs believe the Sox are seeking controllable pitching in return.
“Michael Kopech Drawing Interest From Several Teams” by Steve Adams; MLB Trade Rumors
Kopech has had a rough season so far, statistically, for the White Sox. As of Friday, he is posting a 4.91 ERA and -0.5 fWAR in 29 games and 29.1 IP. While he has saved five games, he has struggled with the long ball, as he is giving up a 24.1% HR/FB this season.
On the other hand, his advanced metrics paint a more optimistic picture.
His xERA is 4.24, and his xFIP is 3.96. He also posts a K% of 32.3% and K-BB% of 18.8%, which are numbers one would want to see from a late-innings reliever. For context, his K-BB% would be the best mark of any Royals reliever this season with 5 or more IP, according to Fangraphs.
Therefore, is Kopech the answer to the Royals’ bullpen woes? Or would the Royals give up too much to acquire him via trade?
Let’s examine Kopech’s offer and consider what it might take to acquire him (and whether it would be worth it).
Kopech and His Elite Four-Seamer
According to Savant, since moving to the bullpen this season, Kopech has honed his repertoire, focusing on throwing his four-seamer more, which averages 98.8 MPH.
In addition to his four-seamer, he still throws a slider. However, he has dropped his changeup and curveball from his repertoire this year in favor of a cutter, as shown below in his pitch usage chart by season via Savant.
The move to the bullpen and condensing of his repertoire has positively impacted the quality of Kopech’s pitches this season. When looking at his PLV arsenals from 2023 and this year, it’s evident that “simplifying” things has helped Kopech tap into his stuff.
Kopech has eliminated two subpar pitches from his arsenal in his changeup (4.02 PLV) and his curveball (4.61 PLV). Furthermore, he has improved his slider by 15 PLV points and his four-seamer by 62 points, which is pretty incredible since he has thrown his four-seamer 18% more this year than a season ago.
According to PLV metrics, his four-seamer has always featured intriguing pitch characteristics, even last season. That said, he’s improved its control and overall PLV this season, which has helped it become his go-to pitch in a relief role for the White Sox.
Kopech has ramped up the velocity primarily on the four-seamer, up 3.7 MPH from a season ago. He has also seen some minor improvements on the pitch in other areas, including gains in induced vertical break (1 inch), arm-side break (0.9 inches), and adjusted vertical approach angle (0.1 inch).
In addition to his PLV going up from 4.81 in 2023 (which is below average) to 5.48 (which ranks in the 91st percentile, according to Pitcher List), he also has seen his four-seamer whiff rate increase from 26.4% in 2023 to 31.6% in 2024.
In the clip compilation below, Kopech’s fastball progresses from last year to this year. Notice not just the velocity bump but also the increase in movement.
That four-seamer is an elite pitch stuff-wise, even if the command has been a bit spotty (as the 96 Location+ demonstrates). According to Pitcher List, his Zone% is only 49.2%, which ranks in the 38th percentile. Thus, he’s found some success with the pitch, even though he hasn’t been able to locate it consistently.
One has to wonder what Kopech’s four-seamer could look like with better coaching, especially Brian Sweeney, who’s helped the Royals pitching staff improve their command from 2023 to 2024. For context, the Royals’ K-BB% has improved from 11.7% in 2023 to 12.9% in 2024, which is excellent incremental growth.
If Kopech can see that improvement as well, it’s possible that he could be the late-innings reliever that the Royals desperately need at this time.
How Much Would Kopech Cost the Royals?
According to Roster Resource, Kopech makes $3 million in his second-to-last year of arbitration with the White Sox. Thus, he’ll be a free agent after 2025, which should deflate his cost since any team acquiring him wouldn’t have long-term control of his services.
The White Sox would want controllable assets in any deal for Kopech, preferably pitching. David Lesky of “Inside the Crown” mentioned (albeit facetiously) a possible candidate who could make sense for the White Sox in a possible trade for Kopech.
Granted, it’s hard to imagine White Sox GM Chris Getz being enticed by Lynch and his 6.35 ERA in 22.2 IP. Even for a GM and organization that has seemed to have an affinity for former Royals, Lynch would likely only be seen as an additional piece at best in any trade.
Are there other prospects that could make sense for the White Sox?
I think so, even if they may not be “big-name” prospects.
I could see pitchers like Jonathan Bowlan, Anthony Veneziano, or maybe Andrew Hoffmann making sense for a White Sox team looking for close-to-ready MLB talent who can contribute immediately. Bowlan, Veneziano, and Hoffmann would probably already be getting MLB innings in any other Royals season, whether in the rotation or bullpen.
This season, though, with the Royals competing? They’re on the outside looking in.
It’s possible that the Royals could give up another pitching prospect with a bit more upside.
Chandler Champlain in Omaha, Noah Cameron, and Luinder Avila in Northwest Arkansas are some names that fit that mold. Those would be tougher names to lose in the Royals system, but considering the depth and improvement in pitching development in the Royals system, it wouldn’t be the worst thing.
Nonetheless, Kopech will cost the Royals some kind of prospect package.
However, due to his mixed results this season and shaky history before 2024, it’s possible that it wouldn’t cost the Royals all that much.
Final Thoughts on Kopech
I am not sure Kopech is the sole answer to the Royals bullpen issues.
Kopech adds a prominent element that the Royals are missing right now: an arm that can throw heat out of the bullpen. According to Fangraphs, the Royals bullpen ranks at the bottom of the league in Stuff+ with a 94 mark. Kopech leads a White Sox bullpen, which ranks 11th overall in Stuff+, with a 144 Stuff+.
That is exactly what the Royals need, whether as the Royals’ closer or perhaps a setup man behind James McArthur (at least initially).
Honestly, just seeing a possible Royals pitcher who can touch 100 and blow it by guys would help rejuvenate a bullpen that has struggled immensely since May, especially in high-leverage situations.
Of course, JJ Picollo and the Royals must be judicious in who they give up for Kopech. While Kopech would undoubtedly help the Royals’ playoff chances, they do not need to give up a substantial prospect package to acquire him.
Prospects like Blake Mitchell, Ben Kudrna, Gavin Cross, and Frank Mozzicato must be off-limits. The Royals shouldn’t sacrifice their long-term future for a reliever who will likely be gone after 2025.
That said if the Royals give away some upper Minors prospects (especially of the pitching variety) for an impact pitcher who can help the Royals’ bullpen for the next two seasons?
Well, I think that kind of transaction would be worth it.
Furthermore, I think the Royals’ coaching staff could help Kopech find a groove in Kansas City, which would help him and Royals fans forget about his rough stretches on the South Side over the past couple of seasons.
Photo Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports
The Royals Reporter 
Mr. O’B, Kopech is, indeed, intriguing and I suspect a move away from the White Soxwould be most beneficial to him, but his BB% is scary for a bullpen already prone to walks. I still ask what, if anything, is keeping them from promoting Pennington?
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I think so, but I am curious to see if Sweeney and Co. can help tap into his command a bit.
I believe there’s two reasons why they haven’t called up Pennington. First, I think they don’t want to yo yo him up and down. They’re kind of doing that with Klein, but I think they want to limit that like they did last year. Think it had an effect and stunted the development of guys a bit.
I also think they’re not a 100% sure his stuff will translate. Yes, he’s dominating AAA hitters, but his fastball isn’t great (91-92 MPH range).
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