About an hour after I wrote about Hunter Renfroe starting to turn a corner on the hitting end (along with MJ Melendez and Adam Frazier), Renfroe left the game due to two foul balls that he hit off his big right toe.
Later in the game, the Royals shared some deflating news about Renfroe’s injury.
It’s awful luck for Renfroe, who finally started to look like his old self after a horrible start to the 2024 season. While Renfroe certainly had his defensive limitations (at least in terms of range), his bat had become a welcomed source of power at the bottom of the lineup over the last few weeks.
Due to the injury, the Royals moved Renfroe to the 10-Day IL (along with Frazier to the bereavement list). Consequently, the Royals promoted outfielder Drew Waters and 1B/OF Nick Pratto from Triple-A Omaha.
The Pratto move was a bit surprising, especially since he has only hit .234 with seven home runs, 30 RBI, and a wRC+ of 83 in 234 plate appearances with the Storm Chasers. Pratto does have a 38.6% hard-hit rate in Omaha this year, and he had a solid Cactus League campaign in the spring. The Royals are probably keeping Pratto up until Frazier returns, and then he will likely be optioned back to Omaha (unless another injury happens).
Waters is the call-up that all Royals should focus on, especially since it is likely that Waters will get regular at-bats in the right field after Renfroe’s injury. While the Royals still have outfielders such as Dairon Blanco, Garrett Hampson, and Nelson Velazquez on the roster, they will likely serve in a utility (or, in Velazquez’s case, a DH) role off the bench.
It’s been a bit of a polarizing 2024 for Waters, who failed to make the team out of Spring Training and has been in Omaha for the entire season.
Waters’ numbers in Omaha are solid at the surface level.
In 50 games and 214 plate appearances, Waters has put up a slash of .277/.350/.484 with a 112 wRC+. He has also hit seven bombs, scored 41 runs, collected 33 RBI, and stolen nine bases with the Storm Chasers. That kind of production would certainly be valued at the bottom of the Royals’ batting order, which Waters would be projected to hit based on today’s lineup.
On the other hand, there have been some red flags with Waters in his time in Omaha.
His BB/K rate is only 0.35, nine points higher than his BB/K ratio with the Royals in 2023. He has struggled to demonstrate consistent plate discipline in Triple-A this year, as he has a K% of 26.6%, higher than his K% in his last stint in Omaha in 2023 (22.4%). He also has benefitted from some batted ball luck this year, as his xwOBA of .315 with the Storm Chasers is 47 points lower than his actual wOBA.
Thus, many Royals fans are wondering if JJ Picollo and the Royals organization still believe in Waters being part of the club’s long-term plans. Considering that the Royals kept him in Triple-A despite the outfield’s struggles could be a sign that Waters’ star in the Royals organziation has lost quite a bit of luster since he was acquired back at the Trade Deadline in 2022.
Let’s take a look at Waters’ outlook is in this most recent promotion and whether or not he can make the most of his stint in Kansas City with Renfroe on the shelf for a good amount of time.
Potential Is There for Waters to Be A Long-Term Outfielder
A former heralded prospcet in the Atlanta system, Waters has shown flashes of being a long-term regular with the Royals in 2022 and 2023.
In a 32-game, 109-plate sample in 2022, Waters put up a slash of .240/.324/.479 with an OPS of .803. He also hit five home runs, collected 18 RBI, and posted a wRC+ of 124. After that stellar rookie debut, many Royals fans felt that Waters would be a shoe-in to be in the Opening Day lineup for the Royals in 2023.
However, Waters suffered an oblique injury in Spring Training and got off to a late start to the 2023 season. When he did return, he failed to find consistency over a larger sample at the Major League level.
In 98 games and 302 plate appearances, the 25-year-old outfielder saw his slash decline to .228/.300/.377. He also saw a regression in his OPS (.677), wOBA (.296), and wRC+ (82). Even though he did lower his K% from 36.7% in 2022 to 31.8% in 2023, his walk rate also dropped to eight percent, a three precent decline. As a result, his 0.25 BB/K ratio was three points lower than his mark in his rookie season.
Even though there were some growing pains in his first full season in 2023, there were some signs of hope that Waters could develop into something if he could make the right adjustments.
Waters’ 87.4 MPH average exit velocity was a 3.3% increase from 2022 and he also increased his hard-hit rate to 35.9%, a 7.8% improvement. Thus, his xwOBA looked a lot better at .313 in 2023 (his wOBA was higher than his xwOBA in 2022).
When Waters put together good swings on hittable pitches in the zone, he could launch the ball with authority, as he showed in this at-bat against the Mets at Kauffman Stadium in August a season ago.
Waters provides a nice combination of power and patience at the plate when he’s locked in. According to his Decision Value rolling chart data, he showed better plate decisions as he got more at-bats in the 2023 season.
In July and August, Waters failed to show sound decision making at the plate, as his Decision Value+ hovered between the 10th and 25th percentile during that time frame. However, by September, he was not only able to see it trend above the league average but even touch the 75th percentile by the end of season.
Even though the plate discipline waned in 2023 (34.1% O-Swing%), his power stayed consistent for the most part, according to the power PLV rolling chart data.
Even though they were declines from 2022, Waters did produce a 10.1% barrel rate and LA Sweet-Spot% of 38.4% in 2023, both above-average marks. He also seemed to show a lot more power from the left side of the plate last season.
According to Fangraphs splits, he had a 14.5% HR/FB rate and a .164 ISO as a lefty compared to a 0% HR/FB rate and .104 ISO as righty. In addition, his Savant hit spray chart from a season ago also showed him launching a lot more balls of distance to the right field area.
Lastly, on a defensive end, Waters proved to be quite effective in at multiple positions in the outfield and will be an upgrade over Renfroe in most categories.
According to Savant, Waters had a fielding run value of +6 and an OAA of +5. He was best in CF, as he posted a +4 OAA at that position in 2023. Of Royals outfielders with 10 or more attempts last season, Waters ranked second, behind only Kyle Isbel.
MJ Melendez has seen some improvement, but Renfroe and Velazquez have failed to add much on a range end this season, as they have OAA marks of -4 and -1, respectively (Blanco has also regressed, as he has a -3 OAA mark).
Having an outfielder in Waters who’s not far off from Isbel defensively should be a big confidence booster for this Royals pitching staff.
Have the Royals Lost Faith in Waters?
The main issue with Waters is that he struggles to make consistent contact at the Major League level.
In 2022, he only had a contact% of 71.4%. Last year, that percentage actually went down to 70.2%. Considering the league average contact rate is 76.3%, Waters profiles as a subpar hitter when it comes to making consistent contact at the Major League level.
Furthermore, his PLV contact rolling chart data demosntrates that he didn’t show a while lot of progress in this area in 2023 either (or at least not compared to his decision value).
His Contact Ability+ season average barely hovered above the 25th percentile and he only got above league average on a couple of occasions. The Royals already have a hitter in Melendez who struggles to make contact consistently in the Majors. Carrying another one is tough to do, especially for a team with playoff aspirations.
Then again, Waters has enough tools on the hitting, defensive, and baserunning end to make up for his subpar contact ability. Maybe he will never hit .300, but he has the profile to be a .250 hitter who can hit 20 HRs and steal 20 bases if fully healthy.
Unfortunately, it seems like the Royals may not be keen on Waters’ development in Omaha this year, as “Farm to Fountains” founder Preston Farr mentioned on Twitter yesterday.
I was curious by this statement, so I decided to dive into some Stacast metrics of Waters, Pratto, Tyler Gentry, and John Rave from Omaha, just to see if Preston was onto something.
To be frank, based on this data, Preston’s comment isn’t far off.
Yes, Waters is doing well on a wOBA end, but his xwOBA is significantly lower, and he also has the highest whiff% of this group of outfielders. He also has the lower hard-hit rate and lowest walk-rate. Sure, Waters is making it work for him, but it’s not exactly what one wants to see from a guy who’s repeating Triple-A for the third time in his career.
As said by Preston, the results aren’t there for Gentry just yet.
He only has a .263 wOBA and his K% is still high at 33.7%. Nonetheless, Gentry has always profiled as a slow starter as a prospect and to see his hard-hit rate and walk rate both higher than Waters shows that Gentry has the potential to be out-performing Waters by the end of the season.
And it’s not just Gentry who’s doing better either. John Rave has been a sensational story in Omaha this year. While he would need to be added to the 40-man, Rave could provide the same kind of overall impact as Waters but without the whiffs and strikeouts at the plate.
Thus, there are options beyond Waters, which makes this latest call-up crucial for Waters, though he seems up for the challenge based on his interviews today.
If Waters can lock in at the plate and continue to showcase stellar defense in the corner outfield spots, he could put himself in the discussion as an extension candidate this offseason (albeit a resonable one).
If he flounders or is inconsistent like he’s been in 2022 and 2023, then it’s likely that Waters could be packaged in some kind of trade to either upgrade the Royals outfield or bullpen in the next month or two.
The Royals have internal outfield options when it comes to the long-term…
And Picollo seems ready to also trade for options in the short-term if Waters shows that he’s not a solution in RF with Renfroe hurt.
Photo Credit: Ed Zurga/GettyImages
The Royals Reporter 
Once Renfroe gets back I would rather see Waters be kept up and Velazquez optioned. Nellie being able to occasionally run into one is just not an option the club will be able to afford once the division race really heats up. Baserunning and defense, especially versatility in the outfield are going to be much more important.l
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If I were the Royals, I would suggest to Eaters to just make solid contact. To try to hit for average and not power, while forcing pitchers to pitch him in the strike zone. He does have “natural,power” so there should be a decent number of extrabase hits and not too fewer HR’s.
If he approaches hitting in a “moneyball” manner, he might increase his batting average a good 20 points. On am extreme result., he might learm how to handle a bat and could then be our 2 on the batting order. It really boils down to how badly Porsche want to be an MLB player.
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[…] safe to say a move needs to happen soon to help boost this group, and Drew Waters doesn’t seem like the answer either (though he’s had a small MLB sample thus […]
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