The Kansas City Royals had maybe the best win of the 2024 season on Friday night, as they came back to beat the Mariners 10-9 after being down 8-0 in the 4th inning (including down 7-0 in the first).
The win showed the Royals’ resolve and ability to return from the most significant deficits.
In fact, I was listening to the first inning on the radio while returning home from the Sports Booth at Lee’s Summit Downtown Days. I remember hearing Royals broadcaster Denny Matthews say this quote that Jake Eisenberg brought up on Twitter last night.
If there’s one universal rule Royals fans know, it’s to not question Denny Matthews (like musicians don’t question Bruce Dickinson).
While the Royals’ victory was enthralling and memorable, their 8-0 deficit early on was mainly due to Daniel Lynch IV’s struggles on the mound, especially early on.
In his fourth appearance (and third start) of the year, Lynch went four innings and allowed eight runs on six hits and four walks (not including two HBP). The rough outing inflated Lynch’s ERA from 1.50 going into Friday night to 5.63 as of Saturday.
With Michael Wacha out for an extended period due to a foot fracture (at least 3-4 weeks, according to Joel Goldberg), either Lynch is going to have to put this outing behind him, or the Royals will have to go to some other options in Omaha, including Jonathan Bowlan. (That said, Bowlan had a rough outing on Friday, as he allowed nine runs on seven hits in 3.1 IP.)
I admit, I dumped on Lynch’s start early, especially after his frustrating first inning. That said, Preston Farr of “Farm to Fountains” posted this after Lynch finished his four innings on Friday.
Additionally, Seattle Mariners and former Pitcher List writer Mikey Ajeto (who got me connected with Pitcher List) also posted this Quote Tweet after I posted Lynch’s CSW numbers by pitch, commenting on his lackluster four-seamer on Friday night.
For the year, Lynch’s four-seam fastball, his primary pitch, has not been well-rated (he throws it 44.5% of the time, according to Savant). The pitch only has a swinging-strike rate of 4.4%, a CSW% of 21.1%, and a Str-ICR% of 49.1%. Those numbers rank in the second (swinging-strike and CSW%) and 25th percentile via Pitcher List.
In addition, his four-seamer’s PLV metrics aren’t impressive either, with a PLV of 4.66 and a PLA of 3.81.
Thus, if Lynch wants to salvage his starting outlook (or just MLB pitching career in general), what does Lynch need to do pitch-mix-wise to avoid future meltdowns like the one he had on Friday night?
Let’s look deeper at his four-seamer and sinker and see if a higher usage of some other secondaries could help Lynch in the long term.
Lynch’s Struggles With the Four-Seamer This Year
Lynch relies on his four-seamer as his primary fastball and pitch. That said, the pitch hasn’t been all that effective this season, and the characteristics of the pitch via Pitcher List indeed demonstrate that.
The four-seamer features below-average velocity and below-adjusted VAA (vertical approach angle) and PLV. Furthermore, the extension, vertical break, and arm-side break are just above the median, which isn’t bad but certainly isn’t promising, especially combined with the mediocre velocity. A positive about the pitch is that it does sport above-average plvLoc+, but the low CSW and whiffs demonstrate that Lynch doesn’t command it well enough to be consistently effective.
Even though Lynch does locate the four-seamer in the zone, he has thrown it in hittable areas this season, which has led to a higher hard-hit percentage (48.4%) on the pitch than a year ago (37.5%). In fact, let’s compare the pitch’s location heatmap this year to last season.
Notice in the 2023 heatmaps that Lynch was locating the four-seamer primarily up in the zone on the edge, which is what one wants to see from a pitcher’s four-seamer. It leads to more chasing out of the zone and more whiffs or pop-up contact, especially in pitcher counts.
Here’s an example of Lynch locating the four-seamer up in the zone last season, which strikes out Cleveland’s David Fry.
On the flip side, let’s look at a four-seamer thrown this year by Lynch in that hot spot. One example was last night against Ty France, who hit it the opposite way for an RBI ground-rule double.
France didn’t hit the ball all that hard, as it only had an exit velocity of 88.6 MPH (a hard hit must be at least 95 MPH). However, because the four-seamer was lower in the zone (instead of up), France could get around it and get a decent hit off it.
The pitch’s lackluster quality forces Lynch to have pristine command of it to be even moderately successful.
When he has that command, he can have solid performances, much like his last outing against the Twins, in which he kept the Royals in the game in five innings of work.
On the flip side, when the four-seamer isn’t finding the zone or located properly, like last night, it often results in meltdown outings from Lynch.
Let’s look at the pitch mix metrics from the previous night’s starts and notice the difference in the four-seamer zone, strike rate, and ICR% from his May 30th start in Minneapolis.
The four-seamer didn’t just generate fewer whiffs and a lower CSW%, but also a 9.5% worse Zone%, 9.2% worse ICR%, and 27.3% worse Str%.
Granted, the velocity was down, but the lack of command of the pitch, combined with that velocity, ended up leading to Lynch’s subpar outing on June 7th against the Mariners.
Can More Sinker Usage Be A Solution?
Lynch does have a two-seamer/sinker in his repertoire, but he utilizes it sparingly at 7.8%. He has increased the pitch usage this year, but it seems to come at the expense of his changeup, not his four-seamer, based on Savant Pitch% trends.
The sinker on a pitch quality end doesn’t feature many significant characteristics, and its PLV is as abysmal as his four-seamer.
The sinker not only shares similar velocity but is subpar regarding its arm-side vertical break, which is concerning because that’s a quality one wants to see from a sinker. Furthermore, Lynch struggles to locate the pitch like his four-seamer, as it only has an 83 plvLoc+. That could be why Lynch only throws the pitch sparingly, as he probably doesn’t trust his command with the sinker.
On the other hand, the sinker works well when paired with the changeup, which features similar pitch qualities to the sinker but is a much more compelling pitch on a location+ and PLV end.
When Lynch can locate the sinker and changeup on the lower arm-side edge, especially against right-handers, the sinker can lead to more whiffs on the changeup. The changeup is lagging in whiffs this year, as it only has a whiff rate of 17.2%, down from 34.7% in 2023.
Here’s an example of Lynch locating the sinker and changeup in similar zones (albeit against different hitters). If he can utilize this sequence going forward, it has the potential to be a potent 1-2 combo that could result in punchouts.
Unfortunately, Lynch isn’t using that sequence enough (or at least not effectively). Thus, the sinker and changeup have not been effective options this season, which needs to change if Lynch wants to be successful moving forward.
Is the sinker a straight-up replacement for the four-seamer?
No, but I think it would be effective for Lynch to continue to utilize his sinker more and pair it with the changeup more frequently, especially since the changeup needs to be more effective as his second-most used pitch this season.
The Breaking Offerings Could Be Saving Grace for Lynch
While Lynch’s fastball and offspeed offerings haven’t been great, he has done a much better job with his breaking pitches this year. He has specifically improved his slider and knuckle curve, which he throws 19.1% and 8.6% of the time, respectively.
The slider’s CSW% is 30.6%, which is 6.9% better than a season ago. The curveball has been even better, with a 47.6% CSW%, which is 11.4% better than in 2023.
Here’s how the pitches compare in terms of pitch quality characteristics. While the slider has been effective and promising, the curveball has the potential to be Lynch’s natural go-to pitch not just this season but beyond.
Lynch’s curveball not only has a better PLV than his slider, but it also is a pitch that Lynch has been able to command better, as evidenced by his plvLoc+ of 100 (compared to the 92 on the slider). Furthermore, the 5.4 MPH difference in velocity makes it tough for opposing hitters who may be sitting on the slider.
An example of Lynch’s ability to sequence the pair effectively could be seen in how Lynch approached Cal Raleigh, the Mariners’ slugging catcher. Lynch utilized a slider primarily earlier against Raleigh, which produced a whiff. As Raleigh began to adjust, Lynch switched it up with the curve, which produced some bad whiffs.
Here’s a look at the SL-CU sequence used on Friday to neutralize Raleigh from doing damage against the Royals on Friday night.
Those are nasty offerings to Raleigh, who went 0-for-3 against the Royals on Friday night. Furthermore, Lynch’s slider had a 35% CSW%, and his curveball had a 55.6% CSW against the Mariners on June 7th.
Thus, it was not just against Raleigh, which Lynch was effective against with the pitches, but the Mariners lineup as a whole, based on the CSW data.
Final Thoughts on Lynch’s Outlook
I am not sure if Lynch will be a starter long-term in Kansas City.
His lack of fastball velocity and movement will always make him prone to bad outings like the one Royals fans saw on Saturday. He hasn’t seen any gains in fastball velocity in the past couple of years (even though he knows it’s much needed).
On the other hand, Lynch’s improvement in his breaking offerings makes me hopeful that he could be a lights-out reliever if he does make the switch. His slider, knuckle curve offerings, and changeup could be a solid base for him in a relief role.
He must utilize his four-seamer and/or sinker more effectively, especially on a command end.
That could be easier to do in a relief role, and in relief, he could also afford to throw the four-seamer less and breaking offerings more.
Could Lynch see more results with that kind of change in pitch mix?
Perhaps, but we won’t know for sure until Lynch’s next outing and if he starts to change his pitch usage at the Major League level.
Photo Credit: Brandon Sloter/Image Of Sport/Getty Images
The Royals Reporter 
I don’t get wether or not he has anything that is a MLB quality pitch. Has the team looked at why he does not have velocity? It could be a mechanics or conditioning issue.
But, lets assume that he just has no gas. Pitching is all about upsetting timing. And his changeup is good. Why not have him try a palm-ball? He could be a younger Jamie Moyer. As he lacks ” brilliance” to dazzle the hitters with, he needs to learn how to,baffle with junk. That means learning to throw his repertoire from overhead, 3/4 and sidearm in order to, make it harder to hit.
Jr may still be salvageable
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I know it’s been something he’s been working on and it’s just not happening with his current mechanics. I agree that he has some potential with his other pitches which is why I think the bullpen could be a better fit. I could see him being an Andrew miller type who could eventually handle a setup role down the road.
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Believe it, or not, the easier option is to analyze his mechanics to figure out why he lacks velocity. AND, if he can improve his mechanics… In the absence of velocity, then his pitches have to have effect, and he has to embrace deception as a tool. I’m not sure hescquite that open minded.
Depending on how much he can control his pitches velocity, he might fit in as a mid to bottom of the rotation type. But for that, malice will need to be his top tool.
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I am sure the Royals coaching staff is analyzing that. Adding velocity is a tricky thing, and considering Lynch is coming off a shoulder injury last year, I think they are also being careful to get him to throw harder, but not re-injure himself in the process.
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A possibility is that they can “optimize” his delivery to reduce stress on his joints. Is he a push-off pitcher (like Tom Seaver)? Using your lower body as opposed to your upper body to generate force may aid him both in durability and velocity. If he is “short” for a pitcher, the only way he can improve his “angle of attack” is by limiting his fastball to the bottom of the strike zone.
Granted. That would be a “smoke and mirors” approach, but at this stage, he needs to add a lot of guile to his repertoire. Use different points of the pitcher’s rubber to change the horizontal look of his offerings. He must do all he can, short of cheating, to keep hitters off balance.
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Mr. O’B, what with Lynch’s first innings overall being problematic,I’m wondering if anxiety could be part of the problem. Could a visit to the lady sports therapist help? Certainly couldnot hurt. I’m very intrigued by your bullpen suggestion but again questionthe anxiety issue. Also, do either Stratton or Nick Anderson have options remaining? Finally, how much more rope are they going to give Lynch?It seems to me that time and resources spent (largely wasted)on him could be better allocated to others. Thx for the excellent deep dive.
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I know it was mentioned that first innings have been an issue. I wonder if maybe him transitioning to a bulk role and then having an opener could help. Maybe Klein or Steven Cruz in that role (Cruz was successful in it last year). I’m sure he’s already getting the mental help he needs, but some kind of change needs to happen to help him work through those issues.
In terms of time, they don’t have a whole lot of options with Wacha out. Bowlan and Veneziano have been trending down and Champlain isn’t ready yet. So I think he has until July when Wacha is suppose to return
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Hey Kevin, great article. I keep trying to understand if there is an issue with his stuff, given it was heralded as he moved up the system a couple of years ago. It doesn’t seem like there’s much he can do to improve his four-seamer, outside of finding more velo as you pointed out. Hopefully the Royals move him to a bullpen role when Wacha is back or Bubic is ready to come off of rehab.
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