I have a busy day today, but I wanted to write a quick post recapping the Royals’ opening homestand against the Minnesota Twins.
The Royals lost the series two games to one over the Easter weekend. The Royals did outscore the Twins 13-9 over the three-game set. So, if one is looking at the aggregate, one could say that the Royals “out-performed” the Twins overall to begin the 2024 season.
On the flip side, I know some naysayers may say, “Well, the Royals scored 11 of their runs in game 3!”
That’s totally defensible. However, while the Royals probably surpassed expectations in game 3, they certainly disappointed in games 1 and 2. I do think that after this Opening Series, the gap between the Royals and Twins isn’t as wide as it was a year ago, especially if Royce Lewis is on the shelf for an extended time.
In this post, I wanted to look at three players who stuck out, for good reasons and bad, in the Royals’ opening home series at Kauffman Stadium. In addition to looking at what they did, I will also look at their outlook, as the Royals have an exciting week of games that includes a road series against the Baltimore Orioles and a four-game homestand against the Chicago White Sox.
Nelson Velazquez, OF
We all know about Velazquez’s rough spring. It was so lackluster that there seemed a realistic chance Nick Pratto would be on the Opening Day roster instead of Velazquez.
GM JJ Picollo and manager Matt Quatraro advised against such a decision and had Velazquez in the Opening Day lineup in the DH spot. The decision shows that Picollo and Quatraro are less likely to be swayed by Spring Training performance than their predecessors (which is a good thing).
Velazquez struggled on Opening Day, going 0-for-3 with a strikeout. On Saturday, he was benched for game 2 of the series as Nick Loftin took his spot in the lineup. On Sunday, Velazquez was back in the lineup, but this time in RF in place of Hunter Renfroe, who’s also gotten off to a cold start to the 2024 season.
Thankfully for the Royals, the former Chicago Cub looked more like the 2023 Velazquez in the series finale.
Velazquez went 2-for-3 with a single, a walk, and a laser of a home run akin to the ones he blasted out of the K after he was acquired at the Trade Deadline for Jose Cuas.
In addition to two hits, Velazquez scored two runs in an overall productive day. He also showed a much better approach at the plate on Sunday. He took advantage of a mistake from Twins starter Bailey Ober and was able to turn on a ball inside an area of the strike zone that was problematic for him on Opening Day.
Some thought that the Royals acquired Renfroe because they were unsure if Velazquez would come back down to earth a bit after a sensational two months in Kansas City. Strikeouts have traditionally been a problem for Velazquez (career 29.8% K%), so how that fares in the first month of play could determine whether Velazquez stays in the lineup or makes his way back to Triple-A Omaha.
After a productive Sunday, I am guessing Velazquez will get plenty of plate appearances this weekend, especially in a more hitter-friendly yard in Baltimore and against a White Sox team that has struggled out of the gate in 2024.
Brady Singer, SP
I predicted that Singer would struggle this year and eventually transition to the bullpen at some point in 2024.
Well…Singer did his part on Sunday to make that prediction look rash and ill-informed.
Honestly, that was one of the most dominant starting performances from a Royals pitcher I have ever seen at the K. Singer was locked in, throwing strikes early, and just had Twins hitters off-balance and guessing all day.
In his debut start, Singer struck out 10 batters and generated a CSW% of 39%. He also induced 19 swings and misses, which was tied for most of the day in baseball with Jordan Wicks of the Cubs.
The start will be worth looking back to before Singer’s next start. Singer mentioned that he utilized his sweeper and four-seamer in this one, but Statcast didn’t seem to recognize any of those pitches. Lance Brozdowski did note, though, that based on vertical movement, Singer did actually throw “more” four-seamers than sinkers, which makes one wonder what Singer’s breakdown from this start will look like on Savant in a couple of days.
Regardless of what pitches he threw, Singer did what pitching coach Brian Sweeney has harped about since taking over: Raid the Zone. That was obvious in his pitch type and pitch description charts from yesterday’s game.
Singer got after the Twins early and often and positive results followed. While his pitch mix will be essential in 2024, how he commands his pitches in the zone will be even more critical for Singer’s development in what should be a crucial season.
Will Smith, RP
The Royals spent a lot of money and trade capital this offseason to improve the bullpen. Unfortunately, the results were mixed, though they got better contributions on Sunday (Matt Sauer and Jordan Lyles did well in their 2024 debuts).
The biggest concern may be Smith, who gave up four runs on two hits and two walks in an inning of work on Saturday afternoon. For a Royals bullpen that’s trying to shake off a rough 2023, that kind of start from their projected “closer” wasn’t exactly a sign that things would be much different in 2024.
On one end, Smith’s outing wasn’t bad from a stuff end. While the velocity was down on his pitches, he still produced a whiff rate of 40% and a 36% CSW%, which can be seen in the table below.
The issue, though, was primarily command. Early on, Smith had a hard time finding the strike zone against Twins hitters. When he finally settled down a bit, he was leaving balls in hittable areas, and Minnesota made him pay.
The four-seamer was down 1.6 MPH from a year ago, so Smith can’t be leaving that pitch in the middle of the zone going forward. He has to locate the four-seamer on the edges and utilize his breaking offerings accordingly if he wants to be effective in 2024 with the Royals.
Smith will get more chances, especially against the Orioles and White Sox. Hopefully, he can shake off the rust from this first outing of the year and give the Royals some stability in high-leverage situations.
while an outing does not a season make, a 1.6 mph dip in velocity points to an underlying weakness. Be What It may, Smith will have to learn to pitch within his limitations.
It was his 3rd-most thrown pitch of the four he threw on Saturday. Could see the usage decline on that pitch if it continues to hover around that velocity.