Tuesday was the deadline to protect players from the Rule 5 Draft in December by adding them to the 40-man roster. Here are the moves the Royals made, according to their official X account.
I didn’t get a chance to write a post on pitchers, but in my post on hitters, Gentry was a guy I figured the Royals would add to the 40-man roster on Tuesday. Klein also was another player I thought would be protected from the Rule 5 Draft, especially since he pitched in the MLB Futures Game last July.
Staumont was an expected DFA move to clear a spot on the 40-man, especially since it’s unlikely that he will pitch in 2024 following TOS surgery. Porter was a bit of a surprise since he was a nice “feel-good” story in 2023. That said, with Salvador Perez still on the roster, and Freddy Fermin expected to be back and healthy in time for Spring Training, carrying a third catcher on this roster for now doesn’t make a whole lot of sense (plus, it’s likely Porter will clear waivers and be outrighted to Triple-A, should he choose that route).
This Friday is the non-tender deadline for MLB clubs which means that anyone who is arbitration-eligible and isn’t tendered a contract will become a free agent after Friday’s deadline. The Royals have already come to an agreement with Taylor Clarke, as he earned a deal $1 million less than his MLB Trade Rumors projection. That leaves five players the Royals have to make tender decisions on by Friday.
Here are three questions regarding the Royals roster that will need to be answered by the end of the work week.
Will the Royals Continue to Be Behind Bubic?
Kris Bubic seemed to be on his way to a breakout campaign in 2023, especially with the addition of a slider to his repertoire. Unfortunately, in his third start of the year, he felt arm soreness during his start and he ended up needing Tommy John surgery which effectively ended his season.
It’s unlikely that Bubic will be ready by Spring Training and Opening Day as he continues his recovery from Tommy John. Therefore, it’s hard to understand what his role will be on the Royals pitching staff for 2024.
Will the Royals give him a spot in the rotation when he returns? Or would the Royals perhaps start him in the bullpen and have him earn back a starting spot, as was the case in 2022?
Or do the Royals simply move on from their former competitive round pick and try to replace his spot on the pitching staff with perhaps a free agent or Rule 5 Draft pick?
Bubic showed some gains from 2022. He not only posted a 3.94 ERA and 0.5 fWAR in 16 innings pitched (he had a 0.5 fWAR in 129 innings pitched in 2022), but his slider proved to be an effective pitch as well from a pitch quality end. This also improved his overall pitch arsenal quality from a year ago, based on PLV.
Based on these improvements, it seems unlikely that JJ Picollo and the Royals coaching staff would want to move on from Bubic. Furthermore, based on his limited sample from 2023 and the fact that he’s recovering from injury, it’s possible that he could come back on a “less-than-expected” deal money-wise, much like Clarke.
Nonetheless, the Royals will have to make a couple of hard pitching decisions this offseason, especially if they want to improve upon their 56-106 record last season.
If the Royals do release Bubic, it’s a sign that this front office is truly intent on making widespread changes this offseason to improve things on the field in 2024.
Will Carlos Hernandez and Josh Taylor Contribute to the Royals Bullpen in 2024?
The Royals need bullpen help, and Picollo in his end-of-the-year press conference mentioned that finding relievers this offseason will be a priority.
However, will the bullpen improvement include Carlos Hernandez and Josh Taylor, who both had their share of struggles last season?
The Venezuelan fireballer seems like a lock to return to Kansas City in 2024, especially based on the Clarke transaction. Hernandez produced a 5.27 ERA in 70 innings pitched a season ago, which isn’t great at the surface level. However, his FIP looked a lot better at 4.28, he improved his BB/K ratio from 1.13 in 2022 to 2.48 in 2023, and his 0.3 fWAR was four points higher than in 2022 as well.
Plus, it’s hard to give up on a guy who can pump his fastball up to 99-100 MPH with ease and regularity.
Much like Hernandez, Taylor’s ERA from this past season looks bad at 8.15 in 17.2 innings pitched. On the flip side, his FIP was 4.78, his BB/K ratio was 2.89, and he had a K rate of 31.3%, which is much needed for a bullpen that struggled to get outs in the later innings consistently.
It’s possible that Taylor could be a bounce-back candidate in 2024, if healthy. The Royals lack left-handed options out of the bullpen after Tucker Davidson and Taylor Hearn were outrighted off the 40-man roster this offseason.
That said, the Royals will return Jake Brentz, who missed all of 2023 due to recovery from Tommy John surgery. Furthermore, I am not sure Taylor brings the bullpen anything that they wouldn’t be getting on the free agent market, even if it may require a bigger financial commitment than Taylor’s $1.3 million projection.
Will the Royals Explore Trades of Brady Singer and/or Edward Olivares?
Brady Singer received some buzz around last season’s August Trade Deadline, as the Cincinnati Reds were reported as a team that was interested in acquiring Singer, according to MLB Trade Rumors.
Last winter, it seemed unthinkable for the Royals to trade Singer, as he was coming off a season in which he posted a 3.23 ERA and accumulated a 2.9 fWAR in 153.1 IP. At the time, many Royals fans were thinking that Singer could be a possible long-term “ace” for the Royals, and that was confirmed by Singer being named to the Team USA World Baseball Classic roster.
Unfortunately, the Royals and Singer were unable to come to an extension agreement and a tense arbitration battle ensued before Spring Training. That was compounded by inconsistent work in the spring due to the WBC and some velocity issues throughout the season. As a result, Singer took a major step back in many categories, even though he pitched a career-high 159.2 IP in 2023.
Over 29 starts, nearly every category for Singer got worse. His ERA inflated to 5.52 and his fWAR fell to 1.9. He also saw his K/BB ratio decline from 4.29 in 2022 to 2.71 in 2023, not exactly a promising sign for a guy who was once thought to be the Royals’ “ace of the future.“
He also saw a major decline in his overall PLV pitch arsenal metrics, especially with his sinker. The primary fastball offering dropped 30 points from his PLV mark in 2022, making it a below-average pitch by PLV standards in 2023.
Thankfully for the Royals, they do not need Singer to lead this rotation, either in 2024 or beyond.
Cole Ragans appears to have ascended into that role, and it’s possible Ben Kudrna and Frank Mozzicato could also be ready in 2025 or 2026 with the right progression in the Minors in 2024. Therefore, the Royals could pull the trigger on trading Singer this offseason in order to perhaps get some position player talent in return, be it at the Major or Minor League level.
That said, Singer’s value isn’t exactly at its highest, especially after he ended the year with a whimper. It may be possible that Picollo and the Royals hold onto Singer for now, agree to a one-year deal, and hope that he can be in prime form in 2024 and perhaps be traded by next year’s deadline for a much bigger prospect return.
As for Olivares, unlike Singer, he finished the year strong, as he hit .329 and posted a 181 wRC+ over the last month of play. Roster Resource is projecting him to be the Royals’ 2024 Opening Day designated hitter as of now, though that is subject to change should the Royals make any moves via trade or free agency this winter.
There is a lot to like about Olivares, especially on a hitting end. He earned 385 plate appearances last year, a career-high, and over that sample, he hit .263 with a 105 wRC+ which included 13 home runs, 47 runs scored, and 11 stolen bases. He also posted a .340 xwOBA, which was 11 points higher than his actual wOBA. Thus, Olivares’ 2023 could’ve been even better, had he gotten more batted-ball luck.
In fact, Olivares’ Decision Value rolling PLV chart looks pretty impressive, especially at the end of the season when he got over that slide from the 800 to 1000th pitch mark.
Unfortunately, there are major issues with Olivares, primarily on the defensive end.
Fangraphs’ Def rated him as 10.6 runs BELOW average, and this is despite playing 42 games as a designated hitter in 2023. Olivares is just a poor defensive outfielder, and it’s hard for the Royals to justify another roster spot for Olivares while also having MJ Melendez and Nelson Velazquez on the roster, who are also lackluster defensive outfielders.
Therefore, one would think it may be wise for Picollo to cash in on Olivares’ value while it’s high.
However a big issue is this: If the Royals couldn’t trade Olivares at the Trade Deadline, what makes one think that they will be able to do so now, especially since he will be entering his first year of arbitration this year and is projected to get $1.8 million, via MLB Trade Rumors?
Will any team be open to paying between $1.5 and $2 million for an outfielder who’s a major liability defensively and may be only a designated hitter at his point in his career? And while he maybe a 15 HR-15 SB threat who can hit between .260 and .280, does that make up for a -11 DRS in the OF in 2023, according to Fangraphs?
There’s no question that the Royals want to trade Olivares this winter.
The only problem is that I don’t think there are a lot of suitors out there willing to take him on their roster at his current projected price.
Which makes one think that it’s likely that Olivares may be the Royals’ toughest non-tender decision on Friday.
Photo Credit: Steph Chambers/Getty Images
Mr. O’B, it seems to me that the entirety of the Royals’offseason strategy will hinge on whether or not they tradeSalvy.
Agree or disagree? Also, is Rusty Kuntz still in the organization and availableto turn Olivares into an acceptable outfielder and, if so,would it be worth the effort?
I think a lot does on that Salvy decision. Honestly, he’s the only trade asset that makes sense for now. Not sure MJ and Singer will get you the return you would want after the seasons they had and I’m not sure you want to give up a guy like Maikel after the rookie season he had. Salvy is a proven vet and he is widely liked around the league so any clubhouse will want him. The issue is just the money. I know Sherman has eaten money on deals before (Dozier being a prime example) but Salvy’s deal is a lot, and there’s no doubt there would be some fallout from the casual Royals fan with Salvy being moved. So yeah, I’m not sure what their plan with Salvy is right now, but I think we’ll be closer to an answer to that after today.
Good question about Rusty. When the Royals received Olivares from the Padres in ’20, there was talk that Rusty felt like he could work with and help Olivares improve as a defensive outfielder. However, after three seasons, it’s kind of been more of the same. Thus, I think that ship has sailed with Kuntz, which is why I think Olivares should be a trade/DFA candidate.
[…] The Staumont and Porter moves should not come as a surprise to Royals fans. The pair was already designated for assignment earlier this week when the Royals added Will Klein and Tyler Gentry to the 40-man roster. […]