What Kind of Role Could Alec Marsh Have With Royals in 2024?

At 44-99 going into Sunday’s series finale against the Blue Jays, the Royals have clearly been in evaluation mode since the All-Star Break, trying to figure out who will be a part of this club in 2024 and beyond.

Wins unfortunately are not a priority for this Royals club at this time, which is tough to stomach for frustrated Kansas City sports fans who are already in Chiefs mode at this point in the year (heck even the Royals players are in that mode):

When it comes to JJ Picollo and the Royals front office “evaluating” players, there’s no question that identifying pitchers who can be part of the rotation or bullpen in 2024 is a priority at this time of the year, especially for a club that is 55 games under .500.

After jettisoning Scott Barlow and Ryan Yarbrough at the Trade Deadline, opportunities have opened up for young Royals pitchers within the system. Some have stepped up and proven to be long-term pieces or at least pitchers who can be penciled in for next season.

Cole Ragans, who is making the start today against the Blue Jays, is the primary one, as he not only has thrived in KC since coming over from Texas in the Aroldis Chapman trade but also was recently named AL Pitcher of the Month for August, which was the first time a Royals pitcher earned that honor since Zack Greinke in 2008.

On the flip side, some Royals pitchers haven’t inspired a lot of confidence for next year, despite the increase in opportunity.

Carlos Hernandez, who appeared to have turned a corner after struggling in 2022, has regressed in high-leverage spots since Barlow was traded to San Diego. As a result, Royals fans are now wondering if Picollo missed an opportunity to get some prospect return for Hernandez at the Deadline while his value was still high.

While there have been both clearly positive and negative “evaluation” pitcher stories since the August Trade Deadline, one pitcher whose status is still “TBD” is Alec Marsh, who’s made 13 appearances, 8 starts, and pitched 56 innings in his debut season at the Major League level.

For a team bereft of quality pitching beyond Ragans, Marsh will continue to get looks down the stretch in 2023. Granted, it could be in the rotation or in the bullpen following an “Opener” (a strategy that Matt Quatraro has been using frequently over the past couple of weeks).

That said, what can Royals fans expect from Marsh during the remainder of the 2023 season, and what kind of role will Marsh play on the Royals pitching staff next spring at camp?

Let’s take a look at Marsh’s profile, what has worked so far (and what hasn’t), and what kind of outlook Royals fans could have for Marsh both in the short and long term in Kansas City.

Swing and Miss Stuff Clearly There For Marsh

When looking at Marsh’s surface-level metrics, his profile doesn’t look great. Marsh is currently posting a 5.95 ERA and 1.63 WHIP. Of Royals pitchers who have thrown 20 or more IP this season, Marsh has the fourth-highest ERA and fifth-highest WHIP.

On the other hand, while the xERA is still unimpressive (he ranks in the bottom 4th percentile with a 6.15 ERA), some of the other Statcast metrics, especially on a strike-generating end, are a lot more impressive, as Royals fans can see below.

Furthermore, on a swing-strike and CSW end, Marsh’s metrics also look impressive, which can be seen in his Pitcher List percentiles below:

These positive trends confirm that Marsh, despite his ERA, home run (23.4% HR/FB rate), and walk (11.9% walk rate) issues, has some solid potential long-term, especially when it comes to generating whiffs and strikeouts.

Furthermore, when looking at Marsh’s swinging-strike pitch type chart from this season thus far, Marsh is able to generate swinging strikes in the right zones with the right pitches. That should make Royals fans hopeful that Marsh’s ability to generate whiffs can continue in the long term, regardless of his role on the Royals pitching staff.

Notice how Marsh is generating swinging strikes with his four-seamer up in the zone, and whiffs with his sweeper, slider, curve, and changeup low. That’s what any baseball fan wants to see from a pitcher, especially a young one like Marsh who’s still adjusting to MLB hitters.

Another positive development has been Marsh’s increase in swing and miss % of all his pitches over the course of the season.

In his rolling swing and miss % chart by month, Marsh has seen an increase in whiff percentage in his secondaries with each month of play, and his fastball whiff percentage is also considerably up from where it was when he first debuted in June.

It appears that Marsh has modified his slider a bit to create a sweeper offering to his repertoire.

Both his four-seamer and sweeper/slider have seen a lot of development on a swing-and-miss end since June. His four-seamer produced a 28.4 percent whiff rate in August and his sweeper and slider produced whiff rates of 45.8 percent and 55.6 percent in August, respectively.

Here’s a clip compilation of Marsh generating big strikeouts with both his four-seamer and sweeper/slider against the Mariners back in his August 27th start at T-Mobile Stadium in Seattle.

(That strikeout of the left-handed Josh Rojas was particularly nasty).

The batted balls, walks, and home runs allowed have been a concern for Marsh this season. Honestly, those were problems that plagued him in Double-A Northwest Arkansas both this year and last.

But Marsh still has a strong ability to get hitters to miss and that is something positive for Brian Sweeney and the Royals pitching coaches to build upon, both in terms of the end of this year and next Spring.

Can Marsh Find Consistency With His Four-Seamer?

When it comes to generating whiffs, his four-seamer has seen tremendous improvement over the course of the year.

Back in June, his four-seam whiff rate was 5.6 percent, which is 23 percent lower than his current four-seam whiff rate in the month of September. In addition, his four-seamer is producing a 29.4 percent CSW, which ranks him in the 69th percentile, according to Pitcher List.

In fact, when looking at his pitch metrics via Pitcher List, there’s a lot to be encouraged about, as evidenced in the pitch sliders below.

While the results with his four-seamer, especially on swinging strike and CSW end, have been promising, the PLV data does paint a bit of a different picture for Marsh’s four-seam fastball.

A big issue on a PLV end has been Marsh has been feast or famine with his four-seamer this season.

Either it’s been a quality pitch that’s producing whiffs or weak contact or it’s been a bad pitch that has gotten batted around. That is clearly evident in his QP (quality pitch), AP (average pitch), and BP (bad pitch) data below, which contributes to his low 4.58 PLV on the four-seamer this year.

Now, let’s take a look at how his 4.58 PLV compares to his other offerings in that PLV category.

The four-seamer is considerably behind both the curve and slider and slightly behind the changeup on both a PLV and PLA end. In addition, Marsh’s fastball is also below his overall PLV of 4.66, which shows that the quality of his four-seamer is dragging down the overall pitch value of his repertoire this season.

That said, it’s not necessarily that Marsh’s four-seamer is a bad pitch. Rather, it’s just that he struggles to find consistency with the pitch and its effectiveness, both in terms of command and quality.

Here’s a look at Marsh’s pitch chart on hits he’s allowed on the four-seamer this season thus far.

As Royals fans can see, he’s serving up way too many middle-middle, which is a prime “mashing” zone for opposing hitters.

Below are a couple of examples of Marsh throwing 92 MPH four-seamers without much movement in the heart of the zone in late June against the Dodgers at Kauffman and in late July at Yankee Stadium. Both pitches resulted in extra-base hits.

While Marsh does have to improve his four-seamer long-term, there are some encouraging signs that it could happen sooner rather than later.

First off, Marsh is coming off a solid outing in “bulk relief” where his four-seamer was exceptional not just on a CSW end (37.5 percent), but also in terms of PLV, which can be seen below.

Against the Blue Jays, Marsh posted a 5.54 PLV and a Q-BP% of 50 percent. Only his sinker fared better in this outing, which makes one wonder if the recent addition of a sinker will make his four-seamer even more effective, especially since they sport different movements.

(Take a look at the movement profile of his four-seamer and other pitches below; it seems like the sinker hasn’t gotten enough data just yet).

Secondly, the Royals have helped Ragans improve his four-seam quality in the move from Texas to Kansas City, and that has been a big part of his success on the mound with the Royals.

Let’s take a look at Ragans’ improvement from 2022 to 2023 in four-seam PLV, and as a result, Ragans’ overall PLV has increased accordingly.

Ragans has seen nearly a 0.30-point PLV improvement from 2022 to 2023 (and remember, Ragans was pitching a little bit with the Rangers this year, so even the PLV chart this year is probably a bit deflated because of that).

If Marsh can see a similar kind of improvement in his four-seamer from 2023 to 2024, then it’s possible that Marsh could be a more serious building block in the Royals rotation next season and beyond.

Rotation or Bullpen in 2024 for Marsh?

Right now, Marsh may be in line to begin in the Royals rotation in 2023, simply because the Royals lack options.

It’s unlikely that Zack Greinke will be back in 2024, and if the Royals can trade Jordan Lyles for anything, they most likely will do so. Brady Singer could be a trade candidate this offseason after he generated some trade interest around the deadline. Lastly, Daniel Lynch and Kris Bubic will be recovering from injuries, so who knows how long it will be before they return to the pitching staff, let alone the rotation.

So really, the Royals can pencil in Ragans and not much else into their rotation for 2024 at this point. That gives Marsh an opportunity to earn a spot down the stretch this year and this Spring.

A big thing to pay attention to with Marsh is how he will continue to develop his repertoire from outing to outing. Eric Samulski of Rotoworld noticed this about Marsh in his last outing.

The nice thing about Marsh’s outlook is that he seems open to Sweeney, Zach Bove, and the Royals’ coaching staff’s suggestions. That hasn’t always been the case for pitchers drafted and developed by the Royals (cough…Singer…cough).

Thus, while Marsh’s metrics don’t look good statistically now, this could be a “process over results” situation. Royals fans will have to focus on what Marsh is doing on a pitch and pitch quality with each and every outing rather than what he is producing in terms of runs allowed.

Another interesting development is that Marsh may simply be better in “bulk relief” outings than traditionally starting.

Let’s take a look at his “through the order” metrics via Fangraphs and some intriguing trends emerge:

Surprisingly, his FIP and xFIP numbers have all been better as a reliever than a starter. Additionally, he has performed best, both as a starter and reliever, when facing a lineup a third time, which is pretty atypical for pitchers with Marsh’s profile.

Thus, moving to a short-innings bullpen role may not necessarily make Marsh more valuable immediately. If anything, his profiles suggest he could be a strong pitcher in the rotation if he can clean up his slow starts, especially as a starter.

It will be worth watching down the stretch if Quatraro and Sweeney can help Marsh do that during this last month of play.

Photo Credit: Alika Jenner/Getty Images

4 thoughts on “What Kind of Role Could Alec Marsh Have With Royals in 2024?”

  2. […] Acquired from the Twins in the Michael A. Taylor trade last spring, Cruz showed flashes of promise after a rough MLB debut (which also happened to James McArthur). Cruz seemed to do best as an “opener” last year, as he started four games when he “opened” for Royals “bulk inning” pitchers (typically, he was paired with Alec Marsh, who thrived in that bulk role). […]

Leave a Reply