The Royals are 26-65, dead last in the AL Central, and 19.5 games behind the first-place Cleveland Guardians. Safe to say, it’s been a disappointing first half for the Royals and this Kansas City fanbase in nearly every aspect, and that is putting it lightly.
Josh Vernier of 610 AM Radio pointed out that the Royals this year are the quickest team to be 40 games under .500 in Royals franchise history after Saturday’s loss (though they ended up salvaging the series finale on Sunday).
That’s definitely sobering for all Royals fans who thought that the “young” Royals would take some positive steps forward after last year’s 65-97 season under former team president Dayton Moore and manager Mike Matheny.
Instead of simply giving “grades” to all the Royals players, which most Royals content creators are prone to do, I thought it would be better to evaluate the Royals hitters and pitchers through a different format that was a bit more data-driven.
Using Pitcher List Pro’s PLV tool (created by Kyle Bland of Blandalytics), I decided to point out some key charts from key Royals hitters and pitchers which can give some context to Royals fans about those players’ first halves, and what to expect after the All-Star Break.
In part one of my Royals midseason report, I focus on seven key Royals hitters, and look at six different PLV charts that can help Royals fans understand what has gone right, and maybe, what has gone wrong from hitters who will be expected to carry this Royals club in the second half and most likely in 2024.
Bobby Witt Jr.’s Swing Aggression (And Consequently Decision Value)
Witt goes into the All-Star break with a .257 average and .742 OPS in 393 plate appearances in the second half. A big concern for Witt, since he debuted last season, has been his over-aggressive plate discipline, as he is posting a 0.27 BB/K ratio and he possesses the 5th-highest swing rate of Royals hitters with 10 or more plate appearances this season, according to Fangraphs.
However, over the past month, the Royals’ 2019 first-round pick has done a much better job of being more judicious at the plate, which has resulted in more positive outcomes at the plate in June and July.
On a plate discipline end, Witt’s BB/K ratio in June was 0.50, according to Fangraphs splits. That is nearly double his ratio from March/April and 37 points higher than his ratio in May.
In addition, according to Witt’s PLV swing aggression chart, Witt went from being a hitter who swung in the 95th percentile in terms of frequency to one that has been around league average recently, as seen in the chart below.
As a result of his more patient approach, Witt has seen his rolling decision value chart, which measures runs added per 100 pitches based on swing decisions, improve considerably from what it was back in late May when his over-swinging was at its worst.
(Scroll right for May; Left for the most recent).
Royals fans were hopeful that Witt could be a .800 OPS hitter this year after posting a .722 OPS in his rookie season. So far that hasn’t materialized as hoped, which has made him a disappointment in the eyes of some frustrated Royals fans.
That said, his OPS is already better than a year ago, as is his BB/K ratio (though by only three points). Furthermore, with 14 home runs and 27 stolen bases in 90 games, Witt could be on pace for 25 home runs and 40 stolen bases by the end of the 2023 campaign.
Salvador Perez’s Hitter Performance
Salvador Perez was named the Royals’ representative for the All-Star game in Seattle this week, but it’s been a difficult June for Salvy after being named Royals player of the month for June.
In the month of May, Salvy hit .302 with nine home runs and 18 RBI in 104 plate appearances. Unfortunately, in the following month, Salvy saw his average dip to .185, and he only hit 3 home runs and collect 7 RBI in 92 plate appearances.
As a result, Salvy saw his hitter performance rolling chart dip dramatically around the 1,100 pitch mark of the season, which can be seen below:
Salvy essentially went from a 90th-percentile hitter in the runs added per 100 pitches category to roughly a 25th-percentile one, which is a tremendous drop. That is not encouraging for the Royals, especially considering that Salvy has been regularly slotted in the 3rd and 4th spot in the Royals batting order by Matt Quatraro.
Of course, the big question among Royals fans is this: Is Salvy hurt and just needs some time to rest and fully recover?
Thankfully, he’ll have the All-Star break coming up, but he will be playing in the All-Star game this week, so he won’t get as much recovery time as his other Royals teammates.
Nonetheless, this dip in hitter performance will be worth watching once he returns from Seattle.
Is Salvy just suffering from an injury-induced slump? Or is the rolling chart a sign that he is starting to experience regression thanks to Father Time?
MJ Melendez’s Stikezone Judgment
There’s no question that Melendez has been the Royals’ most disappointing hitter in 2023.
Going into Sunday’s game, Melendez was posting a .279 wOBA and 72 wRC+ in 342 plate appearances, according to Fangraphs. Melendez’s xwOBA is slightly better at .311 and his hard-hit rate leads all Royals hitters with 10 or more plate appearances this season. Nonetheless, the Royals were expecting Melendez to be part of a dynamic duo with Witt and that just hasn’t happened this season.
A big reason for Melendez’s struggles can be tied to his high strikeout rate, as he is striking out 29.5 percent of the time this season, which is five percent higher than a season ago. To make matters worse, his plate discipline, which was a strength of his a year ago, hasn’t been as sharp.
After posting a BB/K ratio of 0.50 in 2022, he has seen his ratio dip to 0.34 at the All-Star Break. He also is swinging outside the strike zone nearly four percent more than a year ago, which shows he is more over-eager than a season ago.
Lastly, over the course of the year, his strike zone judgment, which ranked in the 90th percentile at one point according to PLV data, had dropped considerably as well, according to his strike zone judgment rolling chart.
It’s definitely a sign that Melendez is pressing, and his 57 wRC+ in June and 59 wRC+ in July thus far certainly don’t help ease those concerns for him and the Royals at the plate.
Melendez needs a reset to find that patient approach that made him successful in May (102 wRC+) and at various times in 2022 (99 wRC+). His exit velocity data shows that he has 20-25 HR potential, but he won’t get there without good judgment at the plate.
Does MJ need some time in Omaha to build some confidence? That’s hard to say, but his drop in strike zone judgment over the past 200-300 pitches shows that Melendez is a shell of who he was as a hitter earlier this season.
Michael Massey’s Power
Massey had a brutal April, and he made some nice gains in May to show that he was worthy of the second base position on Opening Day over Nicky Lopez.
According to Fangraphs splits, in May, Massey posted a 160 wRC+ and improved his BB/K ratio from 0.00 in March/April to 0.43 in May and 0.50 in June. Unfortunately, Massey struggled again in June, as he only posted a 7 wRC+ (which somehow was better than his -19 wRC+ in March/April). However, that was more due to his batted-ball quality than his plate discipline.
Even though the average (.220) and OPS (.597) don’t look great in the first half for Massey, Royals fans shouldn’t sleep on him and his outlook in the second half.
And a big reason why is his budding power, which has been surprisingly growing incrementally over the course of the season, according to his PLV power rolling chart.
Massey has been above league-average for most of the season in expected extra bases added on batted ball events, according to Pitcher List.
Since around the 100 BBE mark though, Massey has gone from just a slightly above-average middle infielder to an 80th-85th percentile one. That power potential was certainly demonstrated today against the Guardians, as Massey hit a triple off Shane Bieber that gave the Royals a 4-1 lead.
With Nicky Lopez’s future in Kansas City hazy, and Samad Taylor getting off to a slow start, expect Massey to continue to get regular plate appearances as the Royals’ second baseman, especially now that he is fully healthy.
And with his better plate approach over the past couple of months, Royals fans should also expect Massey to see his numbers at the plate improve, especially with how much promise he is showing in his batted ball power metrics.
Maikel Garcia’s Decision Value
Garcia has been one of the Royals’ biggest position player success stories this year, as he has gone from a non-prospect a couple of seasons ago to the Royals’ leadoff hitter.
The nephew of Alcides Escobar is hitting .284 with a .731 OPS in 235 plate appearances and he has three home runs and 14 stolen bases to boot. He also possesses the second-hardest hit rate on the team, behind only MJ. That shows that Garcia’s hit tool is legitimate and not just a product of BABIP fortune.
That said, over the course of the season, Garcia has seen some regression in his plate decisions, which can be seen in his rolling decision value chart.
It’s nothing to worry about in the long-term, as regression comes for everyone, especially a 23-year-old infielder in his first MLB season. Pitchers are making their adjustments against him, and Garcia is making those as well on the fly.
That said, his strikeouts and plate decisions should be a development for Royals fans to pay attention to in the second half.
Garcia is striking out 23.4 percent of the time this year and his BB/K ratio is only 0.35, which is still below the league average. He has always been a high BB/K ratio hitter in the minors, so it’s possible that this dip in runs added per 100 pitches is just a blip where he’s still figuring things out with the help of the Royals’ hitting coaches.
Nonetheless, it’s not a positive trend, and hopefully, Garcia can get it going in the right direction after the All-Star break.
Drew Waters’ Contact Ability
One of the prizes from the Trade Deadline last season, Waters has shown some positive improvement in his second stint at the MLB level, even though he started the season on the IL due to an oblique injury suffered in spring camp in Surprise.
Waters‘ stat line isn’t eye-popping by any means, as he is slashing .239/.293/.354 with a 77 wRC+ and .286 wOBA in 123 plate appearances. That said, he posted a 96 wRC+ in June, which included a .714 OPS, three home runs, and 10 RBI in 74 plate appearances.
The main issue for Waters this year has been the strikeouts. Last season, he struck out 36.7 percent of the time and posted a BB/K ratio of 0.30. This season, the numbers are worse, as he is striking out 37.4 percent of the time this season and posting a measly BB/K ratio of 0.13.
A big component of his strikeout issues this season has been the regression in contact ability. According to Fangraphs, his Z-contact (contact on pitches in the strike zone) has gone from 80.6 percent in 2022 to 79.7 percent in 2023, and his overall contact rate has regressed from 71.4 percent to 68 percent as well.
On the flip side, Waters’ contact ability chart actually shows his contact frequency trending upward and higher than a season ago, which contrasts the raw data we see from Fangraphs.
(Scroll right for 2022; left for this year.)
So what does this mean?
I think Royals fans could see an uptick in contact from Waters, especially as he cuts down on the chases. His O-Swing percentage is 36.6 percent this year, which is 9.9 percent higher than a season ago. His O-Contact percentage is 47.9 percent, so his chasing is weighing down his overall contact rates.
A lot of that could be credited to a lack of at-bats in Spring Training, and adjusting to MLB hitters on the fly after returning off the IL. Waters only had 13 games in Triple-A before his call-up, and even in extended Spring Training, the level of competition isn’t the same as what he would have seen in the Cactus League.
The more pitches Waters sees the more patient he will be, and as a result, the contact numbers will be better since his contact on pitches inside the zone and overall contact ability isn’t as bad as his overall contact percentage implies.
Nick Pratto’s Strike Zone Judgment
Pratto has had a nice bounce-back season after a disappointing 2022 rookie debut.
He has cooled down after a hot start, but Pratto is still slashing .246/.331/.388 and is posting a 99 wRC+ and .318 wOBA in 257 plate appearances. He also has hit six home runs and collected 28 RBI and has been the primary first baseman since Pasquantino went down for the year due to a shoulder injury.
Much like last year, strikeouts are an issue for Pratto (notice how this has been a common thread for many young Royals hitters).
His K rate is up from 36.3 percent in 2022 to 37.7 percent in 2023 and his BB/K ratio is down from 0.29 in 2022 to 0.25 this season. The last couple of months have been particularly brutal for Pratto, as he struck out 41.6 percent of the time in June and is striking out 45.5 percent of the time in July, according to Fangraphs Splits data.
Pratto’s PLV strike zone judgment data shows a tremendous drop in his ball/strike correctness and recognition since the 500th pitch threshold, which can be seen in the rolling chart below.
Around the 500th pitch, Pratto ranked in the 75th percentile. Currently, which is around the 1200-pitch mark? He ranks below the 10th percentile in ball/strike correctness.
That’s a big reason why Pratto’s strikeout numbers have not just risen dramatically over the past couple of months, but why his wRC+ regressed to 82 in June and 20 in July after posting marks of 118 and 137 in March/April and May, respectively.
There’s no doubt Pratto’s patient approach is welcomed on a Royals team that tends to be more free-swinging. And he definitely has been hurt on what feels like an inordinate number of ball/strike calls that have worked against the Royals this season, as Josh Keiser of One Royals Way pointed out.
On the other hand, Pratto needs to find a better balance between patience and aggression, and he seems like he’s been out of sorts with his approach and game plan over the past couple of months.
It will be interesting if Pratto can find that right combination again, and produce in the second half like he did during the first two months. The Royals certainly need his hitting production, especially without Vinnie in the lineup.
Photo Credit: David Richard-USA TODAY Sports
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