Royals GM JJ Picollo had a solid second half overall, with in-season trades helping the Royals finish with not just an 82-80 record, but also a 35-30 record in the second half.
Adam Frazier and Mike Yastrzemski had an immediate impact at the plate and on the field. Trading Freddy Fermin away hurt the team behind the plate in the short term (Luke Maile was not an adequate replacement). Still, it netted them two promising arms (Ryan Bergert and Stephen Kolek) and also cleared the way for top catching prospect Carter Jensen.
However, one deal that didn’t quite work out was the acquisition of Randal Grichuk from Arizona. Acquired from the Diamondbacks for reliever Andrew Hoffmann, Grichuk failed to do much in his time in Kansas City in 2025, even as a platoon option.
In 43 games and 105 plate appearances, Grichuk posted a slash of .206/.267/.299 with a .566 OPS. He only hit two home runs, had five RBI, and generated seven walks to 22 strikeouts (suitable for a 0.32 ratio). Those numbers were a far cry from what he did with Arizona before the trade.
In 70 games and 188 plate appearances with the Diamondbacks, the 34-year-old outfielder slashed .240/.277/.457 with a .734 OPS and collected seven home runs and 22 RBI. His BB/K ratio was better in Kansas City than in Arizona (0.26), so the bump in plate discipline was nice to see, especially considering the Royals’ struggles in that area in the first half (they ranked 27th in BB/K ratio before the All-Star Break, according to Fangraphs).
Nonetheless, there weren’t a lot of encouraging moments from Grichuk with the Royals, and it’s not surprising that he wasn’t a significant factor in the Royals’ lineup in their playoff push in September (only 36 plate appearances that month). A dip in wOBA toward the end of the season confirmed manager Matt Quatraro‘s decision to only use him sparingly at the end of the year.
The Royals have an interesting contract situation with Grichuk this offseason. According to Spotrac, Grichuk and the Royals hold a mutual option for $5 million for the 2026 season. If the Royals or Grichuk agree that he won’t be back, it would require a $3 million buyout.
Picollo and owner John Sherman have not been afraid to eat “dead” money before (i.e., paying players to NOT play in Kansas City). They released Hunter Dozier in 2024 even though he had another year remaining on his deal. They also did the same with Hunter Renfroe and Chris Stratton last season. Thus, a $3 million buyout is a drop in the bucket for an org that has undoubtedly taken on more “dead” money in the past.
At the same time, while Grichuk wasn’t good last year, was he so bad that he doesn’t deserve a chance in 2026? I’m unsure of that, especially since the metrics show that he could provide the profile they need for a corner platoon outfielder.
The Statcast Metrics Paint Grichuk in a Better Light
When looking at his rolling wOBA chart from last year, Grichuk profiled as an average-to-slightly above-average hitter who significantly plummeted at the end of the year.
Now, let’s take a look at what his xwOBA rolling chart from 2025 illustrates.
On his wOBA chart, Grichuk was a below-average hitter from his 125th plate appearance to his 175th plate appearance. In terms of xwOBA, however, his trend stayed above average except for one slight stretch around the 140th plate appearance mark. That shows that Grichuk ran into some rough batted-ball luck, and his actual results fell short of his expected metrics.
Grichuk’s xwOBA for the year was .338. His actual wOBA was .289, which is a 49-point difference. His mark was the sixth-highest xwOBA-wOBA difference in baseball last year of hitters with 200 or more plate appearances, according to Savant. (Ironically, Salvador Perez had the second-highest mark of this group.)
When looking at his Statcast profile from a year ago, Grichuk still seemed to hit the ball hard, despite the batting average and wOBA issues. His average exit velocity on batted balls was over 92 MPH, and he also sported a hard-hit rate over 49% as well.
On a negative note, Grichuk didn’t walk much last year (5.5% rate) and he didn’t launch the ball consistently (30th percentile LA Sweet-Spot%). He also made questionable swing decisions, based on his lackluster Z-Swing% (33rd percentile) and O-Swing% (27th percentile).
That said, everything else? Well, he looked good based on Statcast percentiles.
Last year, Grichuk sported a 91st percentile average exit velocity, an 89th percentile Max EV, an 88th percentile Z-Contact%, an 86th percentile hard-hit rate, a 77th percentile whiff rate, and a 64th percentile Pull%. Those are pretty good rankings, and when his swing clicked, he was able to drive the ball like this bomb below against Atlanta’s Dylan Lee on July 28th at Kauffman Stadium.
Furthermore, when looking at his Hit Spray Chart over the past two seasons, it seems like Grichuk’s batted-ball profile would fit at Kauffman over a larger sample. In fact, there were a few doubles and triples on his spray chart that would have been homers had they been hit at Kauffman Stadium (instead of chase, which is death for balls hit to center field).
I think Grichuk would benefit from a larger sample and a clearer-cut role. That would be easier to do if he started the season with the Royals roster in Surprise for Spring Training.
Are Other Similar Options Better Than Grichuk?
For Grichuk to make sense in Kansas City, bringing back Mike Yastrzemski would be essential. In 50 games and 186 plate appearances with the Royals last season, Yaz slashed .237/.339/.500 with an .839 OPS, and he also collected nine home runs and 18 RBI.
Yaz’s rolling xwOBA chart was pretty much the inverse of Grichuk, as the former San Francisco Giant saw his most significant spike in his xwOBA trend occur at the end of the season, after he was traded from San Francisco to Kansas City.
It does seem like the Royals are considering bringing him back for next season, according to reports from The Athletic.
If the Royals do bring back Yaz, finding a right-handed platoon option that can handle right field would be imperative. Some options that have been floated have been Lane Thomas, who played for the Guardians last year, and Miguel Andujar, who played for the Athletics and Reds. That said, when looking at their Statcast profiles via TJ Stats, both pale in comparison to Grichuk.
Andujar had the inverse xwOBA-wOBA split as Grichuk, which usually hints at regression the following season. While he didn’t whiff or strike out a lot, he also didn’t provide much power. His hard-hit rate was only 37.5% and his barrel rate was below five percent. Andujar had a nice season in 2025 with the A’s and Reds, but he wouldn’t be worth the same deal as Grichuk
As for Thomas, his sample is a little unfair as he dealt with injuries that limited him to only 142 plate appearances in 2025. However, his small sample looks bad in nearly every Statcast category.
His barrel rate ranked in the 18th percentile, his hard-hit rate ranked in the 8th percentile, and his LA Sweet-Spot% ranked in the first percentile. He also ranked in the 7th percentile in whiff rate and 3rd percentile in K rate. Whiffing a lot and not hitting the ball hard aren’t exactly “traits” this Royals lineup needs.
Yes, Thomas would probably be a little cheaper than Grichuk (by a couple of million, most likely), and he had the versatility to play center field, too (which Grichuk doesn’t). That said, if the Royals are willing to consider Thomas alongside Yaz, they should keep Grichuk and stick with the same strategy, using two guys who are familiar with Quatraro and this coaching staff.
Now, what if the Royals go for a more expensive route and instead of Yaz and Grichuk, they go with Cody Bellinger or Cedric Mullins? Well, let’s look at their TJ Stats profiles.
According to Spotrac, Bellinger would command a market value of over $30 million. Mullins has a lower market value at $6.7, but he is most likely to get a deal in the $8-12 million AAV range. Mullins had a 26th percentile barrel rate and an 11th percentile xwOBA, while Bellinger had a 35th percentile barrel rate and a 41st percentile xwOBA.
Are the years and AAV amount for either of those two better than a shorter-term combination of Yaz and Grichuk? Even if the Royals can’t bring back Yaz (his market value on Spotrac is over $11 million), what about a platoon of Jac Caglianone and Grichuk in right field and perhaps a free agent or trade option in left field?
Grichuk gives the Royals roster some flexibility and punch off the bench from the right side, which they didn’t have consistently in 2025. Thus, his future in Kansas City shouldn’t be dismissed, despite his rough stint with the Royals last season.
Photo Credit: Mark Blinch/Getty Images
Grichuck and Yaz are fine to repeat. If a third outfielder is signed, he should provide decent offense, but better outfield coverage on either corner. Having Ysbel and another fleet glove out there might make life easier not only for Cags, but for the pitcher… As a bonus, thst fielding speed might translate into first to third speed. If we can’t hit a lot, at least we should be a challenge.
I agree that getting a good defensive outfielder is essential. We saw last year what happened when offense was prioritized for defense in the outfield and the results weren’t good. I think getting someone who can platoon in CF with Isbel will be crucial. As much as I like Tolbert, I just don’t think he’s that guy.