The Arizona Fall League is in full swing, as the Surprise Saguaros, which has prospects in the Royals system, are 5-4, good for second in the AFL standings. Kansas City has eight players on the Surprise roster (five pitchers and three hitters), as well as a manager and strength coach, as highlighted by the Raising Royals PD Twitter account.
I wanted to highlight the Royals prospects in the AFL this season and what this progress could mean for them regaridng the 2026 season.
In this post, I am going to focus on the three Royals hitters on the Surprise roster and in another post, I will highlight the five Royals pitchers. I will be utilizing TJ Stats data and charts, especially since Statcast data is available for AFL games.
Speaking of TJ Stats, he recently launched his newest site, which contains all of the apps, as well as articles. This will be more of a one-stop shop for fans of his work, and thus, there won’t be a need to flip-flop between his Substack and Patreon.
As I have stated before on this blog, Thomas does incredible stuff at TJ Stats and it really helps content writers like myself when it comes to research. Check out and subscribe to his newest site to get access to all kinds of great statistical stuff regarding basbeball (as well as hockey).
With that said, let’s dive deep into what the Royals hitting prospects are doing in Arizona so far in the AFL. (Note: the prospect rankings come from my Royals Top-30 Prospects list which I posted last spring.)
Blake Mitchell, C (No. 2 Ranking)
Mitchell is the Royals’ most high-profile prospect currently in Arizona. After starting the 2025 season late due to a broke hamate bone injury suffered in Spring Training, it makes sense why the Royals wanted him to get some more at-bats and innings behind the plate in the AFL.
In 49 games and 216 plate appearances in Quad Cities, the 2023 1st round pick slashed .207/.392/.296 with a .669 OPS and 103 wRC+. Mitchell posted a 20.8% walk rate, which is impressive. He also flashed stellar defense behind the plate, especially when it came to throwing out base stealers. He threw out 31% of runners in 2025, which was much better than the 15% caught-stealing rate he produced in Low-A Columbia in 2024.
Unfortunately, Mitchell struggled in the power and contact departments with the River Bandits. The then 20-year-old catcher only hit two home runs, and also struck out 32.9% of the time. While the plate discipline was nice, it did seem like Mitchell’s plate approach was more passive than it needed to be.
So far in Surprise, Mitchell is posting numbers similar to what he did in Quad Cities last year.
In 33 plate appearances with the Saguaros, he’s slashing .217/.455/.217 with a .672 OPS. He hasn’t hit for much power, as evidenced by his zero home run total and low slugging percentage. He also is posting mediocre exit velocity numbers, as his average EV and max EV rank in the 50th percentile, and his 90th EV ranks in the 25th percentile, according to TJ Stats.
While the batted-ball quality isn’t there, Mithcell is at least showing a more aggressive plate approach in the AFL.
His Z-Swing% ranks in the 100th percentile with a 74.2% rate, and he is launching the ball better with a 26.7% mark (which ranks in the 75th percentile) as well as pulling the ball in the air with a Pull Air% of 13.3% (which ranks in the 100th percentile). He also isn’t chasing either, as evidenced by a 17.1% O-Swing%, which ranks in the 75th percentile.
The main concern for Mitchell regarding his Statcast metrics in the AFL is that he continues to struggle in terms of whiff rate. His 36.7% whiff rate ranks in the 1st percentile. Furthermore, his Z-Contact% is 67.4%, which is not good, especially considering how much Mitchell is swinging. Not only are the misses in the zone resulting in a lot of strikeouts (24.2% K rate), but it is also a discouraging sign that he’s not ready for Double-A ball just yet.
The good thing is that Mitchell is only 21 years old and hopefully, will be fully healthy next Spring Training. The latter wasn’t the case a year ago, and it seems like that hamate injury had a lingering effect in 2025, especially on his power.
Hopefully, that won’t be the case in 2026, especially since Mitchell may be the most talented prospect in the Royals system with the graduations of Jac Caglianone and Carter Jensen.
Daniel Vazquez, SS (No. 20 Ranking)
I talked about Vazquez in my latest “Jottings” and I feel like he continues to deserve credit for his campaign thus far in Surprise.
In 30 plate appearances, Vazquez is slashing .292/.433/.500 with a .933 OPS. He also has a grand slam, whcih helped the Saguaros regaing the lead late against the Rafters.
It’s a small sample, but the power Vazquez has demonstrated so far in the AFL is encouraging.
His average exit velocity, launch angle sweet-spot percentage, and barrel rate rank in the 75th percentile, and his Max EV and Hard-Hit rate rank in the 50th percentile. The 21-year-old shortstop was not known for his power in Quad Cities, as he posted an .089 ISO and .349 slugging in 463 plate appearances last season. Thus, to see these strong EV and barrel metrics are promising.
However, like Mitchell, Vazquez has struggled quite a bit with “swing and miss” in Arizona.
He’s whiffing 35.7% of the time, which ranks in the bottom 1st percentile. His 70.3% contact percentage ranks in the 25th percentile, and his 26.7% K rate also ranks in the 25th percentile. Lastly, unlike Mitchell, Vazquez isn’t pulling the ball as much, as his 18.8% pull rate ranks in the 25th percentile.
The talent is there for Vazquez to blossom into a player similar in mold to Maikel Garcia, whose power and batted-ball ability took some time to develop in the Minor Leagues. There certainly were times last year in Quad Cities when the Dominican-born shortstop showed those “Garcia-esque” flashes.
Vazquez’s batted-ball and exit velocity metrics will be worth watching this fall in Arizona. If those skills transition to Spring Training and Regular Season, Vazquez may be on his way to living up to that Garcia comp sooner rather than later, especially since Vazquez profiles very well in the field defensively and on the basepaths (27 stolen bases last year; 32 stolen bases in 2023).
Carson Roccaforte, OF (No. 28 Ranking)
I was not high on Roccaforte going into last season as a prospect, which is why I ranked him 28th overall in the Royals system. While I was impressed by his defense, his 87 wRC+ and 26% K rate in 535 plate appearances in High-A Quad Cities in 2024 had me worried that he was a glove-only prospect who would never hit enough to be viable at the Major League level.
To be fair, strikeouts were still an issue for Roccaforte in 2025. In 127 games and 551 plate appearances between High-A and Double-A ball, he struck out 29.4% of the time, 3.4% higher than his 2024 mark. That said, he made up for those strikeouts in other categories.
Roccaforte improved his walk rate from 10.5% in 2024 to 14.9% in 2025. His ISO went from .134 to .212. He hit 18 home runs, eight more than his total in 2024. Lastly, he showed considerable growth in his promotion to Northwest Arkansas, as he slashed .290/.387/.475 with a 141 wRC+ and five home runs in 212 plate appearances with the Naturals.
In Arizona this fall, Roccarforte is showing a lot of the same positives and negatives from the past Minor League campaign.
In 30 plate appearances, he is slashing .227/.433/.318 with a .752 OPS. He has zero home runs, but he’s showed some solid gap power and a strong ability to pull the ball in the air, as illustrated by his 20% Pull Air% thus far. Below is an example of Roccaforte hitting the ball into the gap against Jackson Baumeister, a pitching prospect in the Tampa Bay Rays system.
Much like Vazquez and Mitchell, Roccarforte is whiffing a lot. With the Saguaros, his whiff rate is 48.6% and his Z-Contact% is 63.6%, both lackluster marks. Though limited, the data in those areas wasn’t great for Roccarforte in the Minors last season, as he sported a 69.6% contact rate and 12.1% swinging-strike rate in High-A and Double-A combined.
Still, the 88.8 MPH average EV has been good so far for Roccarforte in Surprise, as it ranks in the 75th percentile. His 100.9 MPH 90th EV is also decent, as it ranks in the 50th percentile. Thus, Roccaforte is showing in the AFL that he can make quality contact, even if it doesn’t always result in home runs.
Sporting “gap to gap” power could help catapault Roccaforte to the big leagues in late 2026 or even 2027. He’s Major League ready defensively, as he earned the Frank White Defensive Player of the Year by the Royals organization this past season.
Roccaforte could not just play any outfield position at Kauffman Stadium, but he could make Kyle Isbel expendable in center field, which is crazy to think about, especially since Isbel was named a finalist for a Gold Glove this season. That said, Roccaforte has demonstrated more power upside than Isbel ever did as a prospect.
Will Roccaforte solve the swing and miss issues, however? That could be the difference between Roccaforte being a regular Major League outfielder like Isbel or just another Drew Waters or John Rave (i.e. a likely four-A outfielder).
I guess Royals fans will get a glimpse of the development of his contact tool this fall in Arizona, and how ready it will be for Spring Training.
Photo Credit: Kansas City Royals/MLB.com
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