After talking about Sam Long in my debut post of the Royals Pitcher Profile series, I decided to focus on another arbitration-eligible pitcher who is a bit more high-profile.
That is none other than Kris Bubic, who will be entering his last year of team control in 2026.
Last season was an interesting year for Bubic in both good and bad ways.
In his return to the rotation, Bubic posted a 2.55 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and 2.89 FIP in 116.1 innings pitched. He showed excellent control with a 16.2% K-BB%, the second-best mark in that category for Royals starting pitchers with five or more innings pitched this season. His strong performance in the first half helped him earn a spot in the All-Star game, his first appearance in the Midsummer Classic.
Unfortunately, he only made two starts and pitched 7.2 innings after the All-Star Break due to a rotator cuff injury, which was diagnosed on July 28th. Out of precaution, the Royals shut him down for the remainder of the 2025 season.
The injury was very similar to Cole Ragans‘. However, because Bubic had it happen later in the season, he was unable to pitch for the remainder of the season. It is expected that Bubic should be recovered in time for a whole Spring Training campaign in Surprise in 2026.
Nonetheless, with the injury concerns (he missed most of 2023 due to recovery from Tommy John surgery) and him being a free agent after next season, many are wondering if Bubic may be better utilized in a trade this offseason. The Royals have reinforcements in the rotation with Noah Cameron stepping up this past year, and Bubic may be the best trade asset the Royals have to acquire a premium bat.
Bubic will be one of the Royals’ more interesting situations this offseason, for JJ Picollo could also opt to extend Bubic, especially if they believe he can be at the top of the rotation with Ragans for the long term.
Bubic’s Season Summary Profile
Strengths As A Pitcher
- Above-average extension (6.8 average).
- Excellent stuff (103 overall TJ Stuff+).
- Stellar chase (32.4%) and whiff (28.8%) rates.
- Reasonable control (51.9% zone rate).
Weaknesses As A Pitcher
- Health and Durability (fewer than 200 IP over the past three years).
- A starter or reliever long-term?
- Subpar Fastball Velocity (92.1 MPH four-seamer; 91.6 MPH sinker).
Roster Situation
- Will Be a Free Agent After 2026.
- Could be a trade candidate.
- Could be eligible for an extension (last year of team control).
- Likely in the No. 2 or No. 3 spot in rotation in 2026.
Four-Seamer, 38.1% Usage
GIF Compilation of Pitch
Quick Analysis of Pitch
- Strong CSW (Called Strike and Whiff) rates against lefties and righties.
- Used more against righties (17.3% more).
- A lot of hard contact allowed on the pitch, especially against lefties (.486 xwOBACON).
- Thrown more in the shadow area against righties; more in the chase area against lefties.
Changeup, 21.1% Usage
GIF Compilation of Pitch
Quick Analysis of Pitch
- Primarily thrown against right-handed batters (only 2.9% usage against lefties).
- Strong CSW (29.5%) and Whiff (38.5%) against righties.
- Limited hard contact allowed on the offering (.272 xwOBACON against righties).
- Heavily utilized in two-strike counts (over 30% usage in all two-strike count scenarios).
Sweeper, 20.9% Usage
GIF Compilation of Pitch
Quick Analysis of Pitch
- Utilized more against lefties (26.3% usage) than righties (19.3% usage).
- Much more effective against righties on a CSW end (35.2%).
- Higher chase rate against lefties (39.7%) than righties (27.5%).
- Located more in the lower middle of the zone against righties; low and away against lefties.
Slider, 13.4% Usage
GIF Compilation of Pitch
Quick Analysis of Pitch
- Used more against lefties (27% usage) than righties (9.3% usage).
- Strong CSW rates against lefties (33.9%) and righties (31.2%).
- Thrown heavily in 0-0 (38%) and 0-1 (42%) counts against lefties.
- A lot of hard contact allowed against lefties (.481 xwOBACON).
Sinker, 6.5% Usage
GIF Compilation of Pitch
Quick Analysis of Pitch
- Thrown more against lefties (19%) than righties (2.8%).
- More effective contact-wise against lefties (.302 xwOBACON) than righties (.429 xwOBACON).
- Low whiff rates against lefties (9.8%) and righties (7.1%).
- Utilized heavily in one-strike counts against lefties; 23% and higher usage in all one-strike counts.
Photo Credit: Sam Navarro-Imagn Images
Kris Bubic presents a conundrum. He performed very well, albeit in a low inning count. To be honest, I’m in my 60’s and remember when front line pitchers racked 300 seasonal innings and double digits complete game counts. Kris can start and relieve long, saving our premium relief talent for suitable situations. I make this observation because outfield talent these days appears thin I can think of a couple of options in free agency to allow us to keep a valuable arm that doesn’t just throw, but actually pitches. I would sign him for 5 years and would have him expand his arsenal. For offense, I would opt to sign Austin He us at Left, Trent Grisham at center and Mike Yastremski at Right. Kyle Ysbel would round out the group as Grisham could occasionally spell Austin and Yastremski in right when premium fielding and range outweighs offense. Biggest challenge will be to spread at bats and keep them all healthy until some of our organic talent makes the bigs.
In general, a change in batting approach may be in order. Rewarding long at bats and OBP should wear opposing pitching down. Our objective should be for our pitching staff to average 0.50 ERA lower than what our offense scores. I feel that Is realistic with our collection of pitching talent.
As a swingman, Bubic and a couple others could function as a “fifth starter by committee” allowing for advantageous matchups when possible. After .500, every additional win is harder. I feel this may be our best option.
Granted. In my analysis, I did not take into consideration roster slots. But, we should be shedding India and Grichuk, and Yastremski would remain in his 40 man roster spot.
I would be open to Bubic moving back and forth between the bullpen to save his arm. That may just be his reality. But whether it the rotation or bullpen, he has proven to be very good the past two years.
Im good with bringing Yaz back, less so on signing Grisham. Maybe it’s just me but Grisham seems like he benefited from Yankee stadium. He was much worse in San Diego whose park is similar to Kaufman’s. But I agree getting high obp hitters, even if they hit for low average, needs to be a priority for this offseason