Categorizing the Royals’ Projected Arbitration Salaries for 2026

One of the first signs of the offseason for any hardcore baseball fan is when MLB Trade Rumors publishes its projected salary amounts for arbitration-eligible players this offseason. That benchmark was met today, as MLBTR published their league-wide list and projections this afternoon.

According to MLB Trade Rumors, the Royals have 15 players who are arbitration-eligible this offseason. Only the Astros and Rays have more arbitration-eligible players with 16. Thus, it won’t be an easy offseason for Royals GM JJ Picollo, as he will have to make plenty of tough decisions on those arbitration-eligible players on the 40-man roster.

In this post, I am going to categorize the Royals’ arbitration-eligible player list into three categories: non-tender candidates, one-year candidates, and extension candidates.

Non-tender candidates are Royals players I could foresee Kansas City letting go this offseason, even though they are under team control. That could be due to them being too expensive, or they may not be a fit for Kansas City’s roster goals this offseason. Regardless, these are players who may not be with Kansas City in Spring Training in 2026.

One-year candidates are players whom I imagine Picollo will offer one-year deals to this offseason, around their projected salary amount. The reality is that the Royals can’t offer extensions to every promising young player, and they need to be judicious with who they provide extensions to and who they go year-to-year with. Going year-to-year with a specific player isn’t a bad strategy, especially if they are the kind of players who likely won’t be with the Royals when they hit free agency.

Lastly, the extension candidates are arbitration-eligible players who could receive multi-year deals before the Royals report to camp in Surprise, Arizona. I mentioned this group briefly in one of my recent posts on Just Baseball. That said, I think it’s essential to revisit those players, especially the arbitration-eligible ones, now that the MLBTR figures have been published.

With those three categories being outlined, let’s see where the 15 arbitration-eligible Royals this offseason fall under and why in this post.

Non-Tender Candidates (5)

Jonathan India is coming off a brutal year in which he posted an 89 wRC+ and -0.3 fWAR in 567 plate appearances in his first season in Kansas City. It was a disappointing season, to put it nicely, for the 28-year-old, who was acquired from Cincinnati for Brady Singer to be the Royals’ leadoff man.

Considering he is entering his last year of arbitration, essentially lost his job to Adam Frazier down the stretch, and is projected to command $7.4 million, it makes sense for the Royals to part ways. That will be especially true if Frazier re-signs with the Royals or if Picollo and Matt Quatraro believe that Michael Massey can bounce back in 2026.

At the end-of-the-year press conference, Picollo and Quatraro were complimentary of India’s first season with the Royals, though they didn’t seem to make any definite commitments.

If there’s one difference between Picollo and Dayton Moore, it’s that these kinds of statements need to be taken with a grain of salt. Do I think India has a higher likelihood of coming back? Probably, especially if he accepts something around or lower than the $7.4 million. However, if the Royals get an enticing trade offer or can snag a free agent who could be an upgrade at the keystone? Then I think India is gone.

Wright, Falter, and Long appear to me as expendable arms who are easily replaceable and aren’t worth bringing back, even if they aren’t projected to command all that much. Wright hasn’t pitched competitively in two years, and his future for 2026 seems murky after he hit snags in his rehab.

Falter was acquired from Pittsburgh due to his ties to Royals pitching coach Brian Sweeney. Unfortunately, he struggled immensely when he came to Kansas City, posting an 11.25 ERA in 12 innings before going on the injured list for the remainder of the season. Falter’s price tag of nearly $3.3 million is pretty high, too, and he doesn’t have the profile to transition to the bullpen either seamlessly.

As for Long, I could see him returning for at least Spring Training, based on his sub-$1 million price tag and his strong finish to the season. After posting a 9.82 ERA in 14.2 IP in the first half, he posted a 2.89 ERA in 25.2 IP after the All-Star Break. Without any Minor League options, and lefties less valuable due to minimum batter rules, I think the Royals will opt to part ways with Long. That said, it’s not as easy a decision as it initially seemed back in May.

The last candidate to be non-tendered is Melendez, who played barely after being optioned in early April. Melendez does have an option remaining, which allows the Royals to see if he can continue to work on his issues in Omaha. However, he is projected to receive a $2.65 million salary, which is significantly more than his worth.

If the Royals decide to bring back Melendez, expect them to non-tender him and then re-sign him to a Minor League deal, as they did last season with Nick Pratto and Tyler Gentry.

One-Year Candidates (7)

Clarke and Schreiber are veteran relievers who are coming off solid, though unspectacular years. Both accumulated individual fWAR marks of 0.3, and Clarke posted an ERA of 3.25 in 55.1 IP, while Schreiber posted a 3.80 ERA in 64 IP. There’s a value to that, but it’s not worth a multi-year extension.

The same is true for lefties Lynch and Zerpa, who posted 3.08 and 4.16 ERA marks in 2025, respectively. Zerpa fared better in the advanced stats, as he had a 0.3 fWAR to Lynch’s -0.2 fWAR. That said, Lynch and Zerpa’s likely return probably spells the end for Falter and Long in Kansas City this offseason.

McArthur was one I went back and forth with, but considering he’s also a sub-$1 million guy, I think the Royals bring him back with the hope that he can fare better in lower-leverage situations. He may not be a closer, but the stuff is there when it’s clicking, as he demonstrated in 2024. His TJ Stuff, zone, chase, and whiff rate metrics were all solid that season, as illustrated below.

Isbel and Massey are interesting cases for Picollo, with Isbel’s case much easier than Massey’s. Isbel has proven to be a solid, though unspectacular player whose defense carried him to a 1.1 fWAR in 409 plate appearances. However, his 79 wRC+ was actually lower than his 2024 mark (82), and his career wRC+ is 78. Isbel could be a non-tender or trade candidate if they can acquire a more proven and established center fielder this offseason.

As for Massey, his stock has dropped after a promising 2024. Conversely, Massey hit .375 and posted an .896 OPS in 68 plate appearances in the second half after he returned from the IL. That strong finish to the season could be why the Royals bring back Massey on a one-year deal this offseason, especially since they have liked him for so long.

Extension Candidates (3)

All three players are ones I imagine Picollo is talking to about extensions this offseason. Bubic may be the most pressing, especially since he will be entering his last season of arbitration and is expected to command the most of the trio. However, that priority is merited, especially after the season Bubic produced in his return to the rotation.

In 116.1 IP, Bubic posted a 2.55 ERA, 2.90 FIP, 1.18 WHIP, and 16.2% K-BB%. He made the All-Star team and was on his way to earning Cy Young consideration until being shut down in the second half due to a shoulder cuff strain.

Despite the injury, the lefty’s TJ Stats metrics were encouraging and illustrate that he has “ace” potential when healthy.

In addition to a 103 overall TJ Stuff+, Bubic also posted a 51.9% zone rate, 32.4% chase rate, 28.8% whiff rate, and .344 xwOBACON. All those are above-average marks and worthy of a No. 1 or 2 guy in any Major League rotation, let alone the Royals’.

With Cole Ragans having some health issues this past season, and with Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo getting older, will Picollo pull the trigger on a possible Bubic rotation? Or will Bubic’s health history deter the Royals?

As for Garcia and Pasquantino, neither of their candidacies is surprising. Both took significant steps in 2025 and were arguably the second and third best hitters (in whatever order) behind Bobby Witt Jr., who earned a Hank Aaron award nomination today.

When it comes to Vinnie and Maikel’s extension candidacy, a lot depends on what the Royals are willing to invest in the long term.

Pasquantino hit 32 home runs and collected 113 RBI this season. However, he only posted a 1.5 fWAR due to lackluster defense and baserunning. Still, there weren’t many more productive hitters on this Royals roster when looking at Vinnie’s Statcast percentiles via TJ Stats (though his chase and low walk numbers were concerning).

As for Maikel, he delivered a significantly better overall performance in 2025 than Vinnie. In 666 plate appearances, Garcia hit .286 with 16 home runs, 81 runs scored, and 23 stolen bases. His wRC+ was 121, and he accumulated a 5.5 fWAR. The power percentiles weren’t as impressive as Vinnie’s, but his plate discipline was just as good, if not better in some cases (especially regarding chase).

If the Royals decide to extend only one? I think Garcia is the pick, simply because he provides more offensive value. However, I wouldn’t be averse to the Royals extending both, though that may make things tough in free agency, especially since Picollo remarked that their payroll would remain around $140 million for 2026.

Photo Credit: Michael Reaves/Getty Images

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