The Division Series round has begun, with the Brewers and Blue Jays absolutely crushing the Cubs and Yankees, respectively (which I’m all for). The Phillies were up early on the Dodgers, but a three-run home run from Teoscar Hernandez off former Royals pitcher Matt Strahm (of course) has Los Angeles up in the late innings.
(Update: The Dodgers ended up winning game one against the Phillies 5-3.)
The Royals are not in the Division Series, unlike a year ago. Thus, I will continue to reflect on the Royals’ season, which was a disappointment but still had a positive overall outcome. I have been following and writing about the Royals long enough to know that an 82-80 season is not something to brush off.
In this post, I wanted to revisit the “Bold Predictions” I made in March, at the conclusion of Spring Training and before Opening Day. To evaluate my predictions, I am going to rate them with four grades:
- Strikeout: Didn’t come to fruition at all.
- Whiff: It didn’t come to fruition, but it wasn’t totally off.
- Base Hit: Partially correct, but not fully.
- Home Run: Totally right and on the nail.
Thus, let’s review the predictions I made before the start of the season and reflect on how I performed, as well as what it means for the upcoming 2026 season.
Whiff: Ragans Will Be A Cy Young Finalist
I was bullish that Cole Ragans would take a step forward and compete with Tarik Skubal for the AL Cy Young award in 2025. Unfortunately, injuries and inconsistency affected the Royals’ ace in a big way.
The 27-year-old lefty only made 13 starts and pitched 61.2 innings due to a shoulder cuff strain. Before that injury, which landed him on the 60-Day IL, he also struggled with hamstring issues, which seemed to affect his performance at the end of May and in June.
Overall, Ragans posted a 4.67 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in limited work. The long ball particularly hurt him, as he gave up a 1.02 HR/9 and 12.3% HR/FB rate. For context, he only allowed a 0.72 HR/9 and an 8.1% HR/FB rate in 2024. His groundball rate also went down from 40.7% in 2024 to 36.8% this season.
While the batted-ball metrics weren’t impressive for Ragans in his small sample size, his strikeout and whiff numbers were.
Ragans posted a 38.1% K rate and 30.4% K-BB%, the highest rates of any Royals starting pitcher this year with 20 or more IP, according to Fangraphs. His TJ Stats numbers were also impressive. He not only posted an overall TJ Stuff+ of 104, but he also produced a zone rate of 51.7%, a chase rate of 29.8%, a whiff rate of 34.6%, and an xwOBACON of .362.
His complete profile can be seen in the TJ Stats season summary below.
Thus, it’s not a surprise that Ragans posted a 2.50 FIP, a 2.17 difference from his ERA. In fact, that ERA-FIP difference was the highest of Royals starters with 20 or more IP by a considerable margin. The runner-up? Ryan Bergert with a 0.68 mark.
Some rough batted-ball luck also hurt Ragans, as his .354 BABIP illustrated (which was 64 points higher than his BABIP last year). If he pitched more innings, his high BABIP would likely’ve stabilized a bit.
Thus, when considering all these factors in relation to Ragans’ season, I think his performance this year was disappointing, but not bad by any means. He also finished the year extremely strong, with a 45.8% K rate, 37.5% K-BB%, 2.77 ERA, and 2.67 FIP in 13 IP. This was also on strict pitch counts in each outing, so Ragans possibly could’ve done more had manager Matt Quatraro given him more freedom.
It wasn’t the season Royals fans expected from Ragans. That said, he should be due for a strong 2026 campaign, as long as he can stay healthy and doesn’t experience any re-aggravation of the shoulder issues that plagued him in 2025.
Strikeout: Renfroe Will Hit 20+ Home Runs
Hunter Renfroe disappointed Royals fans in his first season in Kansas City in 2024.
In 424 plate appearances, the outfielder slashed .229/.297/.392 with a .689 OPS. That also included 15 home runs, the first time it was under 20 in a non-COVID season since his rookie season in San Diego in 2016. Hence, it wasn’t surprising that many Royals fans were ready to give up on Renfroe before he even took an at-bat in 2025.
On the other hand, I was more hopeful of a turnaround from Renfroe in 2025, even if he was a flawed hitter at 33 years old.
Last spring, Renfroe was dogged with injuries, which seemed to linger throughout the 2024 campaign. When he was healthy in 2024, he showed flashes of the hitter who showed solid power with the Padres, Red Sox, Brewers, and Angels.
In June of 2024, he hit .333 with a 1.079 OPS and four home runs in 51 plate appearances. In July of that year, he hit .297 with an .870 OPS and three home runs in 86 plate appearances.
I thought Renfroe could channel that two-month performance at the beginning of the season to help spark the Royals in 2025. Furthermore, I thought there was potential for him to be a 20+ HR hitter again as long as he stayed healthy.
Unfortunately, that never came to fruition.
In 108 plate appearances, Renfroe slashed .182/.241/.242 with a .483 OPS. His launch-angle sweet-spot percentage of 24.1% was a 3.7% decline from the previous season, and his 35.4% hard-hit was a four percent decline.
When looking at his overall Statcast metrics, he did a good job of avoiding whiffs and strikeouts for a corner outfielder. That said, he didn’t offer value anywhere else, especially in the power categories, as seen below.
The Royals’ hands were tied with Renfroe when he opted into his player option at the conclusion of the 2024 season. I’m guessing that the Royals tried to deal him before the start of the season, but had no luck.
The good thing is that JJ Picollo didn’t waste any time with Renfroe in 2025, as he designated him for assignment (and released him) on May 28th to make room for Jac Caglianone on the active roster. Picollo didn’t allow this bad free agent move to hurt the club further, even though the Royals struggled to find a replacement in Renfroe’s absence until the Trade Deadline.
Base Hit: Taylor Ward Will Be A Royal By Midseason (And MJ Melendez Won’t)
I knew the Royals would be active at the Trade Deadline to improve their outfield, and they did that for the most part. They added former Royal Adam Frazier at the All-Star Break from Pittsburgh, and then acquired Randal Grichuk from Arizona and Mike Yastrzemski from San Francisco at the Trade Deadline.
Unfortunately, the one deal I hoped for, Taylor Ward from the Angels, didn’t happen.
Part of that was due to the Angels hovering in playoff contention until the All-Star Break. Considering the team has been playoff-starved since their 2002 World Series title, Angels GM Perry Minasian decided to keep Ward, with the hope they could go on some run in the last two months.
They went 19-34 in August and September and 72-90 overall, 10 games worse than the Royals. Ward ended up having another solid season for the Angels, with 36 home runs and a .791 OPS in 661 plate appearances. However, he struck out a lot, as illustrated in his TJ Stats summary below.
While I whiffed on Ward, I didn’t on Melendez, who only accumulated 66 plate appearances and spent most of the season in Triple-A Omaha.
I was skeptical that the “changes” Melendez did in the offseason would help, and I wasn’t proven wrong. He slashed .083/.154/.167 with a .321 OPS. His whiff rate, Z-Contact%, and strikeout rate all ranked in the bottom 1st percentile, as did his wOBA and xwOBA.
While Melendez was a slightly below-average hitter in his first three seasons with the Royals, he became an unplayable one in 2025, as illustrated in his TJ Stats metrics below.
Melendez ended up having a solid season in Omaha, which was at least a nice consolation. In 480 plate appearances with the Storm Chasers, he slashed .261/.323/.490 with an .813 OPS. He also hit 20 home runs and stole 20 bases, the first time he’s accomplished that feat at any level in the pros.
While the Omaha numbers were nice, it seems a little too late for Melendez, who likely will be a non-tender candidate this offseason.
Whiff (Barely): The Royals Will Have a Top-5 Bullpen
This was a slight miss as the Royals didn’t have a Top-5 bullpen, according to Fangraphs’ reliever fWAR metric. They actually ranked 14th with a 3.7 mark.
However, the bullpen was significantly improved from the previous season, consistently delivering better production throughout the year. That was different from 2024, when the Royals’ bullpen didn’t stabilize until after the Trade Deadline.
A key centerpiece for the Royals’ bullpen was Carlos Estevez, who proved worth the multi-year deal he signed this past offseason.
In 66 IP, Estevez posted a 2.45 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. He also made the All-Star team and collected 42 saves, which led all of Major League Baseball. Estevez is only the second Royal in franchise history to lead the league in saves (Dan Quisenberry was the other).
Estevez didn’t have traditionally dominant “closer” metrics. His strikeout rate was only 20.1% and his K-BB% was 11.9%, which are both mediocre marks for a high-leverage reliever. As a result, his FIP was 3.67, 1.22 points higher than his ERA.
While Estevez’s stuff profile was still solid (103 TJ Stuff+), his other metrics weren’t as impressive, as demonstrated in his TJ Stats season summary below.
Estevez had a great 2025 campaign. However, for him to continue to lead the league in saves, he’ll need to be able to find a way to improve his 23% chase rate and 19% whiff rate in 2026.
The Royals’ bullpen did well overall, even though they didn’t get consistent production from two relievers who were expected to be significant parts in 2025.
Lucas Erceg was the Royals’ closer in 2024 and served as their primary non-closer relief pitcher in 2025. However, while he posted a 2.64 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in 61.1 innings, his strikeout rate was only 19.3% and his strikeout-to-walk ratio was 12%. Much like Estevez, whiffs and chases were challenging to come by for Erceg in 2025.
Erceg also missed time due to a lower back injury, and one has to wonder if that injury lingered with him this season. Still, his 102 TJ Stuff+ is a good sign that he still can be an essential reliever for this Royals squad next season.
Another reliever who produced great metrics but couldn’t stay healthy was Hunter Harvey, who only pitched 10.2 innings this season. When he was on the mound, he was arguably the Royals’ best reliever metrically, according to TJ Stats.
Harvey will be a free agent this offseason, and it sounds like the Royals have no plans to bring him back for 2026.
The Royals, however, will still have Estevez and Erceg, as well as promising young relievers in Luinder Avila, Steven Cruz, and Jonathan Bowlan, who all showed flashes of being potential late-inning relievers in the future, possibly as soon as 2026.
Hence, the Royals could be a Top-5 bullpen in 2026 if things fall into place.
Whiff: The Royals Will Win 89 Games (And Central Division)
I thought the Guardians and Tigers would regress a bit, and unfortunately, that didn’t happen, as they won 88 and 87 games, respectively. Cleveland won the AL Central but finished the year with a negative run differential and was bounced in the AL Wild Card round by the rival Tigers.
I thought some regression would happen in 2025 for the Royals after a 2024 where everything pretty much went right for Kansas City (especially regarding injuries). There was part of me that was tempted to give the Royals 83-84 wins, but I think I let my feelings about the division and the hype from 2024 influence my 89-win prediction.
Safe to say, I may be a little more tempered in my Win-Loss predictions for the Royals in 2026, especially if they have an offseason similar to last year.
Photo Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images