It was a frustrating series finale for Royals fans on Sunday afternoon at Kauffman Stadium.
After evening up the series on Saturday night with a 3-1 victory, the Royals’ bats couldn’t solve the reigning AL Cy Young winner, Tarik Skubal, in a 5-0 loss. In seven innings of work, Skubal didn’t allow a run and only allowed four hits and two walks while striking out two.
When looking at his TJ Stats profile from today’s starter, Skubal didn’t generate a whole lot of whiffs. Additionally, his TJ Stuff+ numbers were good, but not dominant by any means (101 TJ Stuff+ overall). However, he was efficient in the strike zone and limited Royals hitters and their hard-contact ability on Sunday.
Skubal didn’t have to be excellent, but just good enough on Sunday. That was especially true with the four runs of support he received in the fifth inning, with most of those runs coming on a misplayed ball by Royals center fielder Tyler Tolbert.
On the other end, Michael Wacha looked solid through three innings and it seemed like he was going to match Skubal toe-for-toe in the rubber game of the series.
In the first inning, he retired the Tigers in order on eight pitches and didn’t throw a ball until the second batter of the second inning. However, like many Wacha starts this year, when trouble hit, things unraveled badly.
After a four-run inning in the fifth, Wacha was pulled after 4.2 innings of work. He ended up giving up five hits and walking one while striking out four.
Much like Skubal, Wacha flooded the strike zone and generated plenty of chase. However, he struggled in terms of generating whiffs (only five total) and also allowed a lot of hard and productive contact, as demonstrated by his xwOBACON numbers.
Even though Wacha wasn’t at his sharpest (his 94 TJ Stuff+ demonstrated that), this one can’t solely fall on Wacha.
The Royals’ offense came up empty far too often against Skubal and the Tigers, especially with runners on base. Kansas City was 0-for-5 with runners in scoring position and stranded five baserunners as well. Against a Cy-Young caliber pitcher, that isn’t good enough.
The loss had damaging results on the Royals’ playoff hopes on Sunday.
With the Mariners’ win over the Guardians on Sunday, Kansas City fell to three games back in the AL Wild Card race. Furthermore, after the Rangers swept the Athletics, Texas surpassed the Royals in the standings and now trails the Mariners by 2.5 games for the last Wild Card spot.
Without a doubt, it was a deflating Sunday afternoon. That is…until the Royals broke some roster news later in the day.
With rosters expanding tomorrow, the Royals are expected to make a couple of moves to bolster their roster for the final month of the season (I discussed some possibilities in my most recent post). However, instead of going with veteran talent (Harold Castro, Dairon Blanco, and Bobby Dalbec were three options), it appears that Royals GM JJ Picollo is going to rely on a trio of young prospects to help the Royals in their push to the postseason.
Let’s examine these anticipated moves and their potential impact on the Royals’ playoff chances down the stretch.
Hometown Kid to Make Royals Debut
There’s probably been no bigger riser in the Royals’ farm system than catcher Carter Jensen.
After hitting .259 with 18 home runs in 125 games between High-A and Double-A in 2024, Jensen broke out in an even bigger way this season with Northwest Arkansas and Omaha. In 111 total Minor League games and 492 plate appearances, the Park Hill High School product hit .290 with 20 home runs and an .878 OPS.
In addition to solid numbers at the surface level, Jensen also showcased excellent barrel and exit velocity metrics this season, via TJ Stats.
As Royals fans can see from the chart above, the Royals catching prospect ranked in the 100th percentile in hard-hit rate, 99th percentile in average EV, and 95th percentile in barrel rate. Those batted-ball metrics are a big reason why Thomas Nestico of TJ Stats ranked Jensen as the 45th-best prospect in baseball.
Just Baseball ranked Jensen as their 35th-best prospect in baseball and is optimistic about Jensen’s outlook as the Royals’ catcher of the future, especially after the gains he made defensively and game-calling in Northwest Arkansas and Omaha this season.
I was a little skeptical that the Royals would call up Jensen, especially since they were in a playoff hunt and had Salvador Perez as their primary catcher. That said, they need all the pop they can get right now, and Jensen provides much more offensive upside than Luke Maile, the Royals’ current backup catcher. After Sunday’s game, Maile is hitting .200 with a .631 OPS in 43 plate appearances.
Speaking of Maile, he seemed to get banged up on Sunday, as he took some time with the trainer after a groundout (he may have gotten hit by the bat on the backswing). The Royals would not have called up Jensen to be a third catcher, and he hasn’t played anywhere in the field beyond catcher as well. Thus, Maile may be heading to the IL, which explains Jensen’s call-up, even with the rosters expanding.
Even if Maile doesn’t head to the IL, it seems like his days in Kansas City are numbered, especially since Picollo wouldn’t be calling up Jensen to ride the pine. I would expect Jensen to get a lot of regular at-bats with the Royals, rotating between catcher and designated hitter, as Josh Keiser, formerly of One Royals Way, suggested.
The Royals rank 28th in DH wRC+ with a 66 mark, according to Fangraphs. Recently, manager Matt Quatraro has been rotating Adam Frazier and Jonathan India in the spot when Salvy is catching and Vinnie Pasquantino is at first base.
With the arrival of Jensen, that could limit at-bats for Frazier and India in the spot, which is not encouraing for India, who’s been benched by Quatraro in the past two games.
Cags Returns for Second Stint With Royals
When the Royals called up Jac Caglianone in June, “Cags Mania” was at an all-time high. The Royals offense was floundering, and the team store at Kauffman Stadium was chock full of all kinds of Cags memorabilia and apparel.
Unfortuantely, the rookie slugger struggled in his initial exposure to Major League pitching.
In 41 games and 161 plate appearances, Cags hit .147 with a 29 wRC+. He hit five home runs and showecased some excellent batted-ball quality. That said, he also struck out 21.1% of the time and demonstrated some questionable whiff and chase metrics, according to TJ Stats.
In addition to a walk rate that ranked in the 12th percentile, Cags also sported a whiff rate that ranked in the 36th percentile and O-Swing% that ranked in the 6th percentile. In terms of batted ball metrics, his barrel rate ranked in the 71st percentile, but his LA Sweet-Spot% and Pull Air% ranked in the 6th and 4th percentiles, respectively.
On an encouraging note, he showcased some improvement in Triple-A in those categories, as illustrated in his TJ Stats profile from Omaha.
He still struggles to consistently launch the ball (20th percentile) and walk (27th percentile). Additionally, he still chased a whole lot with the Storm Chasers, with an O-Swing% that ranked in the 11th percentile. However, the EV and hard-hit rates were off the charts, and he pulled the ball much better in Omaha, as illustrated by his 85th percentile Pull Air%.
His most recent home run, a 451-foot shot, shows what he can do when he pulls the ball properly.
I think there will be less pressure on Cags, which is a start contrast to his earlier call-up in June. It is likely that Cags will continue to get innings in the field in right field, which likely means that Mike Yastrzemski will probably move to left field to accomodate. Yaz has primarily played in center field and right field in his career, but he did see some occasional duty in left field with the Giants.
At the end of the day, Cags is part of the Royals’ future. Thus, he will get the positional advantage over the veteran Yaz, who won’t lose any at-bats against right-handed starting pitchers down the stretch.
Can Avila Give Some Length (And Strikeouts) Out of the Pen?
The Royals bullpen has been solid this year, as they rank 7th in reliever ERA and 10th in WHIP. However, an Achilles heel for the group is their lackluster ability to strike batters out. According to Fangraphs, they are tied with the Rockies for 28th in K/9 with a 7.75 mark.
Luinder Avila should help in this area, even though his overall metrics are a bit spotty.
In 14 outings (nine starts) and 53.1 IP with the Storm Chasers, Avila has a 5.23 ERA and 1.33 WHIP. However, his strikeout numbers are much more impressive. He posted a 10.29 K/9 and K/BB ratio of 2.65. Thus, it isn’t surprising that 4.03 FIP is much better than his ERA.
When it comes to his arsenal, Avila’s curveball has been his best pitch on both a whiff-generating and stuff end in Omaha, via TJ Stats.
His curve sports a TJ Stuff+ mark of 102 and whiff rate of 42.6%. His sinker has also been a solid pitch, despite lackluster stuff metrics (93 TJ Stuff+). The sinker has generated a chase rate of 36%, a whiff rate of 19.1%, and xwOBACON of .197. All those are above-average marks.
Avila only had one outing with the Royals in his initial call-up. However, he looked excellent in relief, as he retired the side and struck out a batter in inning of work. His TJ Stats metrics also looked solid in his lone MLB appearance.
Avila struggled a bit with finding the strike zone, as evidenced in his 20% zone rate. That said, he generated plenty of chase (37.5%) and whiff (40%). He also limited the hard-contact with a xwOBACON of .080 (though three batters is such a small sample).
Here’s an example of his curve producing nasty break and a swing and whiff from Washington’s Robert Hassell III for Avila’s first career strikeout.
I don’t think Avila is going to be thrown into any high-leverage situations anytime soon. However, he provides a strikeout upside that’s been missing from the bullpen this year, especially after Hunter Harvey and Steven Cruz landed on the IL.
Photo Credit: Mark J. Rebilas USA TODAY Sports