The Royals won a big series over the White Sox in Chicago this week, improving their record to 69-65 and Fangraphs playoff odds to 13.2%, as of Thursday.
While the postseason is still a bit of an uphill battle for Kansas City, they are just three games behind Seattle in the Wild Card race and are ahead of division rivals Cleveland and Minnesota in the AL Central standings.
It will be a big series this weekend at Kauffman Stadium, as the Royals host a three-game set against the first-place Detroit Tigers. While the Royals likely won’t catch the Tigers in the standings (they have 0.3% odds to win the Central), a series win could help build much-needed momentum for September.
Furthermore, on Labor Day, the MLB rosters expand to 28. That means Kansas City, like the other 29 teams in Major League Baseball, will be able to add a couple of players to the roster to hopefully give them a boost down the stretch. This is a change from the old rules, when the entire 40-man roster was eligible to be called up in September.
In this post, I aim to address four questions regarding the Royals’ roster that are likely on the minds of fans, especially with the roster expansion date approaching.
While it’s just two players, the Royals need all the help they can get to make up ground on the Mariners in the AL Wild Card race, especially with a crucial series against Seattle at Kauffman in the middle of September.
Can Jac Caglianone Give the Royals A Boost?
The Royals placed their 2025 first-round pick on the IL on July 27th due to a left hamstring strain, and since then, the Kansas City lineup has actually fared quite well in the slugger’s absence With the acquisitions of Randal Grichuk and Mike Yastrzemski at the Trade Deadline, the Royals’ lineup has ranked 8th in baseball in wRC+ with a 114 mark since Cags has been on the IL, according to Fangraphs.
It hasn’t been the best MLB debut for Caglianone, who showed some promise, but has overall had disappointing results with the Royals before his injury.
In 161 plate appearances, he posted a slash of .147/.205/.280 with a .485 OPS. On a positive note, he’s produced a barrel rate of 12.1%, a hard-hit rate of 42.2%, and has five home runs, including this most recent one below in Columbus.
However, Caglianone also has a strikeout rate of 21.1%. Furthermore, many of his whiff and chase rate metrics haven’t been stellar, as demonstrated by his TJ Stats profile below.
In addition to sporting a wOBA that ranks in the bottom 1st percentile, his LA Sweet-Spot% and O-Swing% rank in the 6th percentile, and his Pull Air% ranks in the 4th percentile. While the EV and barrel percentiles are impressive, those “swing and miss” issues certainly contributed to Cags’ lackluster performance at the MLB level this season.
At the same time, Cags has proven that Triple-A pitching has been no match for him, as illustrated in his numbers and Statcast percentiles, via TJ Stats.
In 116 plate appearances with the Storm Chasers, Cags is slashing .365/.414/.712 with a 1.125 OPS. He has 10 home runs and ranks in the 100th percentile in wOBA and 90th percentile in EV, 99th percentile in average EV, 98th percentile in xwOBA, 97th percentile in Hard-Hit%, 92nd percentile in Max EV, 87th percentile in Barrel%, and 85th percentile in Pull Air%.
To put it simply, Caglianone has been one of the best hitters in Triple-A, even in the small sample size. For him to improve, he needs to be able to transition this performance to the MLB level somewhat.
That said, the Royals do not NEED Cags in the lineup like they did when they called him up back in June. Yaz and Grichuk are holding things down in right field, and Michael Massey had a promising series in left field in Chicago. Thus, if the Royals do call up Cags, it would likely be in a platoon or semi-regular role, not an everyday one like in June.
Is that what the Royals want to do with their potential franchise player? Or would they rather ensure that he gets every day at-bats, especially while playing along with catcher Carter Jensen, who may be ready for the Big Leagues as soon as 2026?
With the rosters expanding and Cags’ rehab stint expiring soon, JJ Picollo will have to make a crucial decision with Cags and whether or not he returns to Kansas City for the stretch run.
It won’t be as easy a decision as it was in June, that’s for sure.
Do the Royals Add A More Specialized Bat From Omaha?
I think it’s likely that Cags gets the call when rosters expand in September. However, I don’t think it’s a slam dunk by any means, especially with the Royals’ offense looking much better since the Trade Deadline.
If the Royals decide to keep Cags in Triple-A, I think it also means Jensen will stay in Omaha, even though he has absolutely mashed since moving up from Northwest Arkansas. Thomas Nestico profiled Jensen, his 45th-ranked prospect in baseball, in a recent post on his Substack.
At the end of the day, Cags and Jensen are the future of the Royals organization, and they need every day at-bats. They won’t get that in Kansas City, and it wouldn’t surprise me if that’s a dilemma that Picollo is agonizing over. Royals fans have seen from previous GM Dayton Moore how calling players too early for specialized runs (i.e., Adalberto Mondesi) has produced mixed results.
The Royals may be better off by calling up an older player who would be comfortable with a more specialized role, even if it meant less regular playing time. Thankfully, Picollo has a few options to utilize in this regard.
Harold Castro has been on fire recently with the Storm Chasers and was most recently named International League Player of the Week. Castro formerly played with the Tigers and Rockies, so he has MLB experience. Furthermore, he’s a switch-hitter and can play multiple positions in the infield and outfield, something manager Matt Quatraro likes.
Another option could be Bobby Dalbec, who has played for the Red Sox and White Sox. Dalbec doesn’t offer any defensive versatility, and he strikes out frequently, but he possesses a big bat with significant power. Dalbec has 47 career MLB home runs in 338 games and had a 25-HR season in 2021 with Boston. The 30-year-old could be that bench power bat off the bench from the right side of the plate.
The only problem with those two options is that the Royals would have to add them to the 40-man roster; however, with two open spots (they currently have 38), it shouldn’t be a significant issue.
If the Royals would rather tab someone on the 40-man roster, an option could be Dairon Blanco, who could give the Royals another speedster off the bench with some outfield flexibility.
Blanco has not been as proficient on the basepaths as he was a year ago, with only 23 stolen bases in 60 games in Omaha (and three in Kansas City). He has dealt with an Achilles issue all season, but seems to be the healthiest he’s been all year based on recent play.
Blanco is a one-dimensional player, as his hitting is mediocre and his defense isn’t great. That said, he could help give the Royals a baserunning tandem off the bench with Tyler Tolbert, similar to what the Royals had with Jarrod Dyson and Terrance Gore in 2014 and 2015.
With Castro, Dalbec, and Blanco, the Royals could boost their bench in a more specialized way without the need to worry about the “development” of Cags down the stretch.
Will Ragans Contribute?
Initially, there was some hope that Cole Ragans would be able to join the Royals in August after going on the IL due to a left rotator cuff strain on June 15th. With August gone, it seems like September is the earliest return date for the Royals’ ace, as confirmed by Picollo in a recent interview on MLB Network.
The Royals have been taking it slow with Ragans’ recovery, which makes sense, especially with the rotation full with the arrival of Ryan Bergert from San Diego at the Trade Deadline. Bergert has been more than solid in the fifth spot in the Royals’ rotation.
According to Royals MLB.com writer Anne Rogers, Ragans is coming off some successful bullpens and is making positive progress velocity-wise. That said, it seems like he is still a significant step away from getting back to an MLB mound.
If Ragans does return, it will likely be in a bullpen or “opener” role, as he will likely be on a pitch/innings limit. That may not be a bad thing, however, as Ragans could pitch like Kris Bubic did out of the bullpen a year ago. Ragans brings not only stuff, but strikeout ability that is sorely missed in the bullpen right now (they rank 29th in K/9).
Here’s a look at Ragans’ profile before his injury, via TJ Stats.
Ragans’ 36.4% K rate, 32.6% whiff rate, 28.7% K-BB%, and 2.44 FIP would be welcomed in this Royals bullpen, especially in a playoff chase.
What Others Arms Could Help in Kansas City?
If Ragans does return, it may not be until the middle of September. Thus, the Royals would be looking at a two- to three-week stretch with Ragans, at best.
They still need someone to boost the bullpen, and they have a couple of options in Omaha who could provide some flexibility and length.
One option is Luinder Avila, who already debuted for the Royals on August 13th against the Nationals. He struck out a batter in his MLB debut.
Avila has a 5.19 ERA in 16 outings and 52 IP with the Storm Chasers this year. However, he has a 26.8% K rate, a 17.4% K-BB percentage, and a 4.35 FIP. He also showcases some solid stuff and Statcast metrics, as demonstrated in his TJ Stats profile below.
Avila sports an overall whiff rate of 29.9% and TJ Stuff+ of 98. His curveball rates as his best pitch with a 102 TJ Stuff+ (54 grade) and 41.7% whiff rate. That said, his sinker has produced solid results (.208 xwOBACON, 35.2% chase) despite questionable stuff metrics (92 TJ Stuff+).
Thus, he’s been much better than the ERA indicates, primarily due to the hitter-friendly environment of Werner Park and the International League. He could succeed in a middle-inning, low-leverage role in Kansas City.
Another possible arm could be Stephen Kolek, who was acquired from San Diego in the Freddy Fermin trade along with Bergert.
Kolek has primarily been in Triple-A Omaha since coming over from the Padres organization. It hasn’t been pretty with the Storm Chasers, as he has a 6.63 ERA in five starts and 19 IP. A significant issue for him has been his mediocre performance with the Storm Chasers, which has led to lackluster metrics in his Statcast categories.
At the same time, his 26.6% whiff rate is slightly above average, and his 50.7% zone rate and .361 xwOBACON are serviceable. He may not be a starter, but the Royals do not need him to be with the rotation pretty full.
Furthermore, Kolek was much better when he pitched for the Padres at the Major League level this season. Hence, one has to wonder if Brian Sweeney and Zach Bove could perhaps tap into something to get Kolek back to those San Diego levels.
Kolek may not need to start, but he could step in as a spot starter when needed. That could be the case soon, with Noah Cameron expected to “skip” his projected starting spot on Saturday, as Rogers reported after last night’s 12-1 win over the White Sox.
Kolek may come up sooner than expected, with him perhaps replacing Cameron if the St. Joe product lands on the IL. Whether it’s Saturday or Monday, the 28-year-old righty seems to be a good bet to join the Royals roster, especially after Kolek only pitched one inning in his most recent outing on Wednesday (in which he struck out two and walked one).
Photo Credit: Diamond Images/Getty Images
[…] are expected to make a couple of moves to bolster their roster for the final month of the season (I discussed some possibilities in my most recent post). However, instead of going with veteran talent (Harold Castro, Dairon […]