The Royals finished off the Rangers on Thursday afternoon, beating Texas 6-4 in the series finale. With the win, the Royals won three of four in the series and improved their record to 66-62 for the season.
A Bobby Witt Jr. error erased a three-run Royals lead in the fifth. However, a Vinnie Pasquantino home run (his fourth in as many days) in the bottom of the inning helped the Royals regain the lead, picking up Witt’s rare defensive blunder.
Vinnie’s home run, his 26th of the year, not only gave the Royals the lead again, but it also helped build much-needed momentum for the remainder of the game.
After the Rangers gained a 55% win probability after Josh Smith‘s clutch hit, Pasquantino’s home run helped turn the win probability chart in the Royals’ favor again. Thankfully, it stayed that way for the remainder of the game, as seen in the win probability chart below via Savant.
With the Royals’ win and 8-2 homestand (against the Nationals, White Sox, and Rangers), Kansas City now sits two games behind the Mariners for the last spot in the AL Wild Card race. The Royals will host the Mariners in mid-September, and if Kansas City continues to play well, it could be a huge series that draws massive crowds to the K.
Even though it’s been an uneven year for the Boys in Blue, they have been one of the hottest teams in baseball since July 6th, as pointed out by MLB on their Twitter account this afternoon.
There is a lot for fans to be excited about right now, which is encouraging with a huge road trip looming.
On Friday night, the Royals begin a weekend series in Detroit against the AL Central-leading Tigers, and then finish the road trip off with a three-game set on the South Side at the Rate. A winning road trip, especially the series against the Tigers, could help Kansas City close the gap between them and Seattle even further.
In this post, I’ll examine the three key stats from the Royals’ winning homestand and discuss their implications for the upcoming road trip to Detroit and Chicago.
26.1% Playoff Odds, According to Fangraphs
According to Fangraphs’ rolling playoff odds graph, on August 10th, the Royals had a 6.1% chance to make the postseason. On that day, the Royals had lost to the Minnesota Twins at Target Field by a 5-3 score. The loss not only clinched the series for the Twins but also dropped their record to 58-60.
Considering the Twins pretty much sold off all their major pieces at the Trade Deadline, the series loss in Minneapolis was a gut punch, and it seemed like the Royals’ playoff chances were running out at the time.
However, winning eight of ten can change perspectives quickly.
After the Royals’ series win over the Rangers, the Royals now sport 26.1% playoff odds, according to Fangraphs. That is a 20% improvement from where they were 11 days ago. Furthermore, not only did their playoff odds spike, but they also passed by the Cleveland Guardians in terms of odds, as seen in the Fangraphs rolling playoff odds graph below.
Playoff odds can always be quite fickle, as a streak, whether good or bad, can change playoff odds dramatically in a short period. That is clear with the Twins, who had 60.2% playoff odds on June 11th and now have seen their odds decline to 0.2%.
The Royals could hit a rough stretch at some point, especially in September when they play the Guardians, Phillies, Mariners, and Blue Jays in consecutive series.
For now, however, Royals fans should be excited about the positive change in odds. They remain low, and the Yankees and Red Sox, two teams they lost the season series to, are in two of the three Wild Card spots, which doesn’t help Kansas City.
That said, Kansas City sports fans should brace for meaningful Royals baseball in the last month of the season, which is something that has not been all too common in the post-Ewing Kauffman era.
11% Walk Rate for Royals Hitters
Walks have not been plentiful for Kansas City Royals hitters this season.
According to Fangraphs, Royals hitters have produced a 7.0% walk rate, which is the second-lowest mark in baseball (only the Rockies are lower with a 6.9% mark). However, during this 10-game homestand, Kansas City hitters produced an 11.0% walk rate. That was the fifth-highest walk rate in baseball over that time, via Fangraphs.
For the season, the low number of walks has correlated with struggles in other offensive categories. The Royals not only rank 24th in OBP (.306), but also 29th in runs scored (483). It is hard to be competitive when a club ranks at the bottom of the league in both of those essential offensive metrics.
Since August 10th, the Royals ranked 4th in OBP (.356) and 6th in runs (49). The OBP is the most glaring improvement due to the increase in walks, as it is 50 points higher than the Royals’ season mark.
Here’s a look at how the Royals players individually performed in terms of walk rate over those 11 days.
Of Royals hitters with at least five plate appearances, the Royals had seven hitters with a double-digit walk rate over the homestand. That also correlated with nine Royals hitters having a wRC+ over 100 over that period as well (and Salvador Perez just missed that benchmark with a 94 wRC+).
That is a far cry from what the Royals have done overall this season, as demonstrated in the table below via Fangraphs, which is organized by walk rate.
Mike Yastrzemski has been a breath of fresh air plate approach-wise, and his team-high 14.1% walk rate illustrates the value he has brought to the leadoff spot. Additionally, Witt, Maikel Garcia, and Jonathan India posted excellent walk rates during the homestand, as evidenced by their 12.8%, 13.5%, and 14.8% rates. To see those man core guys improve in this area has boosted the offense, even when the BABIP luck may not have been there at the K over those 11 days.
Not only has the stretch of plate discipline been one of their best streaks of the season, but it also has been one of the best stretches in over 16 years. This was highlighted in a topic on the Royal subreddit after the Royals won.
Hitting coach Alec Zumwalt has gotten a lot of criticism this year, and it has been understandable considering the Royals’ regression offensively from 2024. That said, the Royals’ hitting group has been locked in at Kauffman since August 10th, especially on the plate discipline end.
Suppose Royals fans are going to be ruthless with Zumwalt when the Royals underperform at the plate (which has been a lot). In that case, we need to be ready to recognize improvement by the Royals hitters when it happens and give credit to Zumwalt and the Royals’ hitting coaches as well (i.e., assistant hitting coaches Keoni DeRenne and Joe Dillon).
Zumwalt and Co. deserve applause for getting the best out of these Royals hitters over the past ten games. Let’s hope they can help keep the hitters locked in at the plate in Comerica Park and the Rate Field this road trip.
2.97 ERA for Royals Bullpen
The Royals’ bullpen got off to a slow start out of the All-Star Break.
Even though the unit ranks seventh in reliever ERA, they do rank 15th in WHIP, 20th in H/9, and 29th in K/9, according to Fangraphs. From July 18th to August 10th, they ranked 17th in reliever ERA, 21st in RS/9, and 27th in K/9.
Here’s how the Royals relievers looked individually in different metrics over that period after the All-Star game.
Taylor Clarke and Hunter Harvey looked great with 1.48 and 2.18 FIP marks, respectively. Lucas Erceg posted a mediocre 3.97 ERA, but his 3.03 FIP was much more tolerable.
Conversely, Carlos Estevez posted a 5.40 ERA and 5.63 FIP in 8.1 IP. Over the same number of innings, John Schreiber had a better 4.91 FIP, but his 5.40 ERA was the same as Estevez’s. Thus, it’s not surprising that both relievers combined for a -0.2 fWAR in the second half, until August 10th.
It’s been a much different story since August 11th.
According to Fangraphs, the Royals’ bullpen ranks fourth in ERA (2.50) and third in FIP (2.97). They still struggle to generate strikeouts, as their 6.00 K/9 was the worst mark of any bullpen in the Majors. That said, they ranked 8th in BB/9, which helped the Kansas City bullpen overcome the lack of strikeouts.
Here’s how the Royals’ bullpen has fared individually over the last 10 days.
The biggest risers, bullpen-wise, have been Schreiber and Estevez. Schreiber posted a 0.00 ERA and 2.88 FIP in 4.1 IP while Estevez sported a 1.80 ERA and 2.71 FIP in five innings pitched (he also collected three saves). Seeing those two relievers rebound is encouraging, especially since Harvey and Steven Cruz are currently on the IL.
Let’s look at how Schreiber has performed since August 11th via TJ Stats metrics.
The strikeouts (15.4% K rate) and whiff rate (17.9%) haven’t been impressive for Schreiber. However, he flooded the zone well (62%) and minimized productive contact, as demonstrated by his .297 xwOBACON. His stuff also profiled well, as illustrated by his overall 100 TJ Stuff+, with his sinker and changeup sporting grades over 60.
Since August 11th, Schreiber has led all relievers in WPA (win probability added) with a 0.47 mark. Manager Matt Quatraro has thrown Schreiber in high-leverage spots, and he responded effectively.
Estevez, on the other hand, has seen a much better boost in striking batters out since August 11th. His 21.1% K rate was an improvement from where he was before the Royals’ latest homestand.
Here’s a glimpse at Estevez’s metrics via his TJ Stats profile.
While the strikeouts are up, the whiff (18.8%) and chase (23.9%) both rated as subpar over the past ten days. On a positive note, the .361 xwOBACON was down from his previous mark in the second half, and his 52.1% zone rate and 104 TJ Stuff+ showed that his stuff is looking much better, even if the command remains a work-in-progress.
Royals fans have been hard on Estevez recently, especially in the second half. However, he’s been one of Kansas City’s better closers in club history, which says something considering the Royals have also had Dan Quisenberry, Joakim Soria, Greg Holland, Wade Davis, and Kelvin Herrera close games.
It hasn’t always been pretty for Estevez, or the Royals’ bullpen in those high-leverage spots. And yet, they have been able to get the job done more often than not. Estevez’s 33 saves have tied San Diego’s Robert Suarez for the MLB lead.
In addition, Schreiber and Erceg continue to boost the Royals in setup situations. Angel Zerpa has arguably been one of the Royals’ best relievers in the second half, especially since August 11th, as demonstrated by his 31.3% K rate, 0.00 ERA, and 2.19 FIP in 4.1 IP over the past 10 days.
Thus, Royals fans shouldn’t be surprised by this group’s 2.97 ERA since August 11th. Instead, they should be optimistic that this bullpen is trending in the right direction at precisely the right time, especially as the club makes that playoff push.
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