The Royals had an off day on Thursday after winning two of three against the Nationals to begin their homestand. However, while winning a series is important, it felt like the Royals let one slip away against a Washington team that sits in the cellar of the NL East.
Kansas City lost 8-7 to the Nationals on Wednesday afternoon in a wild game. Royals starter Seth Lugo spotted the Nationals a 5-0 lead in the top of the first, thanks to a grand slam from Nate Lowe (who was later designated for assignment by Washington today).
However, the Royals chipped away, despite a lackluster start from Lugo, and ended up tying the game in the bottom of the 8th at seven. Despite the valiant comeback, closer Carlos Estevez couldn’t keep the game tied in the top of the ninth, and the Royals came up short in the bottom of the ninth, despite two runners being on base.
In this edition of the Jottings, I wanted to focus on three players who have been struggling for varying periods: Lugo, Estevez, and Salvador Perez. I will review a few tables and charts for each player and consider whether they can bounce back performance-wise within the next couple of months, or if this is a sign of things to come for the remainder of the season.
For the Royals to improve upon their 7.0% playoff odds, according to Fangraphs, they will need these three to pick things up and solve what’s been ailing them on the field recently.
Lugo Continues to Struggle Since Extension
It was another brutal start for Lugo on Wednesday, as his ERA increased to 3.77 and WHIP to 1.24 in 23 starts and 131.1 IP.
In four innings of work against the Nationals, Lugo gave up six earned runs on six hits and four walks while only striking out two. In addition to only generating five whiffs, he also gave up two home runs on 85 pitches.
When looking at his TJ Stats summary, Lugo was around average in terms of accumulating strikes, which is evidenced by his 51.1% zone rate. Unfortunately, he floundered in nearly every other category, including chase, whiff, and xwOBACON, as seen below.
For another start, Lugo struggled to generate chases and whiffs, as evidenced by his 15.6% and 13.2% marks, respectively. Additionally, he also gave up a .395 xwOBACON, with his curveball (.585) and cutter (.450) getting hit particularly hard on Wednesday afternoon.
Overall, the 35-year-old starter posted a TJ Stuff+ of 96, which is typical for him. However, his four-seamer, changeup, and sinker, three of his four most-thrown pitches on Wednesday, all generated TJ Stuff+ marks of 92 or below.
It’s going to be hard to be successful when the stuff on three of his primary offerings (all thrown at 12% or higher in terms of usage) is not of quality. It also doesn’t help when he can’t locate them effectively, either, as demonstrated in his pitch type chart via Savant.
Lugo was having issues overall with his pitches tailing armside or sitting too much in the middle. That said, his three main offerings (four-seamer, sinker, and changeup) especially struggled with this problem, which explains why they performed so poorly against Nationals hitters.
It’s been a tale of three seasons, essentially for Lugo: Pre-Injury, Post-Injury, and Post-Extension.
Here’s a look at Lugo’s TJ Stats summary before his finger injury in mid-May that landed him on the 15-Day IL.
Here’s a look at how he performed after returning from the IL, but before he inked his extension with the Royals.
Now let’s look at what he’s done since signing his two-year extension on July 28th, which confirmed that Lugo would be staying in Kansas City for at least another season (instead of being traded at the July Trade Deadline).
In the first third of Lugo’s season, he threw the ball in the zone a lot, but struggled with whiffs (19.3%) and giving up too much hard contact (.416). Post-IL stint, he still had issues with hard contact (.403 xwOBACON), but he improved his whiff (24.4%) as well as his chase rate by four percent (25.9%). That helped Lugo get back into form, as evidenced by his 2.88 ERA and 24.9% K rate in that 56.1 IP sample.
Since signing the extension, though, the chase has continued to increase (26.6%), but everything else has plummeted. His zone rate is 47.3%, 7.3% down from the first third of his season. The whiff is down to 14.6%, a nearly ten percent drop. And the .476 xwOBACON is 60 points higher.
To make matters worse, it doesn’t seem to be a stuff problem, as Lugo’s 97 TJ Stuff+ in the last third is the same as the TJ Stuff+ in the second third, and only one point lower than what he produced in the first third. Instead, it seems to be a command issue, especially with his curveball, his highest-rated pitch on a TJ Stuff+ end (106).
His curveball pitch description chart from Wednesday demonstrated those command issues, as seen below.
For context, that one “In Play, Run(s)” dot was Lowe’s grand slam in the first inning, which was smoked. So, it wasn’t just that Lugo was missing outside the zone, but he was leaving the curve too high as well on Wednesday when it did find the zone.
Lugo’s curveball is getting hit hard, which isn’t a surprise considering that happened pre-extension as well. What makes matters worse, however, is that it is not generating nearly enough whiffs, as the rate is down to 20.6% in the last third after posting a 32% rate in the second third.
The curveball has been Lugo’s premium pitch since coming to Kansas City in 2024. When he locates it properly, it’s a nasty offering, as seen below in this strikeout of the Cubs’ Seiya Suzuki back on July 23rd, shortly before he signed his extension.
Lugo regaining command of it could not only make the pitch more effective (especially since it traditionally has a lot of spin) but also get the rest of his arsenal going again down the stretch.
Because for the Royals to have any shot to make the postseason, they need the second-third version of Lugo to return, at a minimum.
Royals Data Dugout Explores Estevez’s Struggles
Royals Data Dugout is a great follow on social media, and he produces excellent work on his Substack. Today, he posted a thorough piece about Estevez and his struggles after the All-Star Break.
Estevez has been a bit of a lightning rod of frustration from Royals fans recently, especially considering his recent struggles in high-leverage situations. With the game tied in the top of the ninth on Wednesday, Estevez struggled to hold the tie and gave up what ended up being the game-winning run for the Nationals.
Here’s a look at how his profile looked from that game via TJ Stats.
Based on the data, Estevez’s stuff continued to profile well, as he produced an overall TJ Stuff+ of 103, with a 106 rating on the four-seamer and 108 rating on the slider. Unfortunately, he struggled to find the strike zone (48% zone rate) and only generated a 7.7% chase rate, 25% whiff rate, and .647 xwOBACON. Failing to get batters to chase and getting walloped is not a recipe for success.
This has been a trend for Estevez after the All-Star Break, as Royals fans can see via Estevez’s TJ Stats summary comparison from before and after the All-Star Break.
The stuff has been fine this year. Instead, it’s the chase that’s declined, which isn’t good since the chase rate profiled pretty low before the All-Star Break. Thus, that lack of ability to induce swings outside the strike zone has led to more walks (2.3% BB% increase), more hard-hits, and therefore, more runs (2.36 ERA in the first half to 5.23 ERA in the second half).
Dalton from Royals Data Dugout had a complete breakdown in his post below.
Here’s a snippet from Dalton that illustrates Estevez’s struggles with chase and contact, especially in the second half of this season.
“Despite hitting the strike zone at 55.4% on the season, 51st among 171 qualified relievers, Estevez is handing out free passes over the last two weeks (16.7%) as if it’s his primary mission.
Racking up walks in spite of filling up the strike zone means one thing: No one is chasing. Estevez has never been a huge chase rate arm, reaching a career-high 28th-percentile chase rate back in COVID-shortened 2020 and following it up a few years later with a 26th-percentile performance in 2023.
In 2025, Estevez’s 21.7% chase rate is in the FIRST-percentile, per Baseball Savant, and has hit rock bottom at 12.5% this month. To counteract failing to coax hitters to chase, a pitcher must induce in-zone swing and miss with good stuff, which Estevez does possess.
However… his 89.6% Z-contact is 14th-highest among those qualified relievers this season, and while the in-zone whiff rate is up to 15.4% in August (his highest in a month this year) it’s not enough to offset how little opponents are offering out of the zone.”
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Salvy’s Hitting Issues Since Fermin Trade
The Royals made a good trade at the Deadline by sending Freddy Fermin to San Diego for pitchers Ryan Bergert and Stephen Kolek.
Yes, losing someone like Fermin is tough, especially since he was such a fan favorite in Kansas City. At the same time, the Royals needed arms, and they got two from San Diego who have upside and years of club control. Bergert has already looked great, showing ace potential, in his early tenure as a Royal, as Fangraphs wrote about in a recent post.
The deal has also seemed to work out for the Padres, as he is hitting .355 with a 152 wRC+ in 34 plate appearances for San Diego. He also hit his first home run with the Padres on the road against Logan Webb of the San Francisco Giants in Oracle Park.
While the arms have been nice for the Royals, the Fermin trade has put an increased catching load on Salvy. Since August 1st, Salvy has caught in all but one game, according to Fangraphs.
Unfortunately, that increased workload behind the plate has seemed to affect his offensive output. Since August 1st, he’s not only .157 with a 52 wRC+ in 55 plate appearances, but he’s also seen a sharp decline in his wOBA since the trade, as seen below.
After being in the upper percentiles from his 350th to 450th plate appearances, his wOBA has sharply declined to below average. He still ranks in the 56th percentile in overall wOBA with a .309 mark, but it’s not trending in the right direction.
To make matters worse, his exit velocity numbers have plummeted even worse than his wOBA since the Royals parted ways with Freddy, as demonstrated via his rolling exit velocity chart via TJ Stats.
He’s been below average in his most recent stretch, which is something that he hasn’t done throughout the year, even when he was struggling offensively earlier in the season. His EV hexbin spray chart data shows a similar concerning batted ball trend. He has the homers, but he also has a lot of soft pop-ups and groundballs, as seen in the chart below via Savant.
The thump just hasn’t been there recently for Salvy, and his overall 87.9 MPH EV demonstrates that.
Unfortunately, many of those offensive struggles seem to stem from fatigue from having to catch every day. At 35 years old, he recovers more slowly than he did when he was younger, and that slower recovery is having an impact on his power and performance at the plate.
Will manager Matt Quatraro start to give him more days off and trust Luke Maile, the Royals’ new backup, with more at-bats? Maile is no Fermin, but the Royals need Salvy’s bat right now, especially to make that much-needed run or push to the postseason. To maximize his bat, he needs time at DH or 1B.
I guess Royals fans will see how Q handles Salvy and the catching position over the next seven days against the White Sox and Rangers at Kauffman Stadium.
Photo Credit: Kyle Rivas/Getty Images
time to call up Carter Jensen, and move Perez to either DH or 1st base and have him catch less.
I like Jensen and what he’s doing. But I would rather not do to him what they did with Jac. They don’t need to start his MLB time clock. Let him continue to mash, build confidence, and give him an opportunity to win the backup role in Spring Training next year