The Royals’ baserunning this year has been a hot topic of discussion among frustrated fans this season.
Much has been made about their 35 caught-stealing mark, which is fourth-highest in baseball, according to Fangraphs. The same has also been true about their 16 pickoffs on the basepaths, which leads all of baseball, according to Baseball-Reference.
As a result, Royals fans have shared their “pointed” thoughts online about this part of the Royals’ game, including Royals Review in a recent post.
I didn’t want to delve too deeply into traditional stats, but I did want to share some data I compiled from Baseball Savant over the past two seasons. Baseball Savant compiles baserunning “run value” data, which not only takes into account runs created by stolen bases, but also extra bases gained by players after base hits.
The reality is that the Royals are bad when it comes to baserunning this year.
Whether you are an analytical fan or not, it’s evident that Kansas City has shot itself in the foot time and time again this season on the basepaths. Are they the worst team in baseball? I’ll let the Savant data decide that.
That said, spoiler alert: the results haven’t been good for the Royals on the basepaths, especially compared to a year ago.
Let’s look at two areas of the Royals’ baserunning: how they fared as a team in 2024 and 2025, how they fared individually in 2024 and 2025, and what the takeaways are from these data sets.
Royals Baserunning Run Value As Team in 2024 and 2025
Let’s take a look at how the Royals are doing in terms of baserunning run value this season via Savant. I organized the data by total runner runs and highlighted the Royals’ ranking in light blue.
As demonstrated in the table above, the Royals rank 23rd in total runner runs created with a -3.1 mark. They are just 0.1 runs above the Los Angeles Angels and lead the Rockies, Nationals (whom they play this week), Orioles, Twins, Giants, and Pirates.
In terms of runs on extra bases, they rank 16th with a -0.3 mark. That is mediocre, but it isn’t as bad as their overall runner-run value ranking.
Where they primarily get hurt in terms of baserunning is in stolen base situations. They rank 27th in baseball with a -2.7 runner-run value on stolen bases this season. Only the Nationals, Rockies, and Angels have been worse when it comes to generating runs off stolen bases, according to Savant.
Let’s look at what the Royals did a season ago in the Savant categories.
In 2024, the Royals were a Top-10 baserunning team in terms of run value. According to Savant, they ranked fifth in total runner runs created with a 9.0 mark. Only the Reds, Cubs, Diamondbacks, and Brewers sported better baserunning run marks. That shows that the Royals utilized baserunning as a strength last season, which helped them win 86 games and make it to the ALDS.
In terms of runs on extra bases, Kansas City ranked sixth with a 5.2 mark. When it came to runs on stolen bases? They ranked seventh with a 3.8 mark. The Royals were a better team when it came to generating those extra bases and, more importantly, runs off of hits. However, they were also a more efficient basestealing team last season, according to the Savant data.
Royals Individual Baserunning Value Data in 2024 and 2025
According to Savant, the Royals are 12.1 total base running runs WORSE this season than they were a year ago. How did that happen?
Well, let’s take a look at how individual Royals players with five or more attempts this season have fared in the Savant baserunning run value data so far this season.
Bobby Witt Jr. and Kyle Isbel have been the Royals’ best baserunners, as evidenced by their 4.9 and 2.0 run value marks, respectively. After those two, they have seven players with positive baserunning total run values, though none of those seven have marks over one.
Conversely, the Royals have nine players with baserunning run values of zero or lower. That includes five players with marks below -1.0: Freddy Fermin, Drew Waters, Jonathan India, Vinnie Pasquantino, and Salvador Perez.
Some of those names are not surprising.
Freddy and Salvy are both catchers, and Vinnie is a plodding first baseman. However, to see Waters and India that low is surprising, especially since they profile as athletic players. Instead, it seems like their lackluster instincts on the basepaths have led to negative baserunning run value.
Another surprising one is Maikel Garcia, who has a -0.7 mark despite being second on the club with 22 stolen bases.
A significant contributor to that negative mark is Garcia’s subpar run value in stolen bases, as he sports a -0.9 run value. That is the third-worst mark of Royals players in that category, ahead of only India (-1.9) and Waters (-1.1).
Now, let’s look at what the Royals individually did last year on the basepaths, according to Savant.
The most significant difference from this season’s squad is Maikel, who created 7.6 total baserunning runs last year. That is an 8.3-run difference from 2025, which demonstrates how far Garcia has slid on the basepaths, a primary strength of his in 2024.
The Venezuelan infielder was not just good at gaining extra bases on hits (2.6 run value), but he was sensational on stolen bases. His 5.1 stolen base run value was not only the best mark on the team, but it was 1.4 runs better than Dairon Blanco, who had the second-best mark, and 4.5 runs better than Witt, who had the third-best mark.
For context, Witt had 31 stolen bases, only six fewer than Garcia last year. And yet, Garcia was nearly five runs better when it came to SB run value because Garcia was much more efficient.
After being caught only twice last year, Garcia has been caught nine times, leading the team and surpassing Witt by two. The increase in caught stealing and picked off plays has contributed significantly to Garcia’s negative value on the basepaths this year, compared to a season ago.
The Royals also had five players with total baserunning run value marks over 1.0, and five players with total baserunning run values of -1.0 or lower. Those are both better marks than this season on both ends of the spectrum.
Furthermore, there were fewer surprises last year. Salvy, Vinnie, and Hunter Renfroe sat at the bottom of these baserunning run value rankings, which isn’t surprising considering their questionable sprint speeds. The only alarming one was MJ Melendez, who had a total baserunning run value of -1.0 (which was primarily due to a -1.2 SB run value).
Takeaways From This Data
Last season, the Royals were aggressive on the basepaths and had weapons who could utilize that aggression effectively.
Blanco only played in 88 games and had 120 at-bats. And yet, he had the second-best total baserunning run value of Royals players. Garrett Hampson wasn’t known for his bat (.230 average), but he was sneakily effective on the basepaths, especially when it came to getting extra bases off base hits. Even Adam Frazier and Michael Massey provided some subtle baserunning value with their 0.4 marks.
They just haven’t gotten that kind of baserunning production from their bench this year.
Blanco was hurt early in Spring Training, and it seemed like he just never got back into his baserunning groove, as he has toiled most of the year in Triple-A Omaha.
Tyler Tolbert has been good, but he hasn’t been as efficient (he’s had some blunders himself) or utilized as frequently as Blanco was a season ago. That is evident in Tolbert’s 0.7 mark, which is 3.9 runs lower than Blanco’s 2024 run value.
In addition to mediocre bench baserunning, the Royals have gotten hurt by Garcia’s significant regression this season. For the Royals to make up that loss in bench baserunning effectiveness, they needed Garcia to put up similar or better numbers this year. That hasn’t happened, and the Royals’ baserunning has plummeted, even with Witt essentially doing this year (4.9 total run value) what he did a season ago (5.2).
Kansas City has long been known for being an effective baserunning team under manager Matt Quatraro and GM JJ Picollo. Even during their 56-106 season in 2023, the Royals ranked fifth in baseball in total baserunning runs with 11, according to Savant. Thus, to see their runs mark far worse than what we saw two years ago is an alarming sign.
Picollo needs to bring in or develop better baserunning talent in the organization for 2026. However, the Royals also need to reassess their strategy and preparation this season from a coaching end (which falls on Q), as it has hurt their win record this year, and likely will keep them from returning to the postseason.
Photo Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports
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