The Royals disappointingly finished their road trip on Sunday, losing 5-3 to the Minnesota Twins in walkoff fashion in the 11th inning. Kansas City was unable to score a run in either the 10th or 11th, despite the “Manfred Rules” allowing them a runner at second base to start each inning.
The series loss was not only their second-straight after losing to Boston earlier in the week, but it also dropped their final road trip record to 4-5. That is discouraging to see, especially after winning two of three in Toronto the previous weekend.
Without a doubt, a lot of Royals fans are frustrated right now. 96.5 FM Royals Insider Josh Vernier certainly made his feelings clear about the loss on the postgame radio show, and fans took to social media to also express their dissatisfaction with today’s extra-inning loss.
Not only did the Royals drop a winnable game (with Bobby Witt Jr. on the bench due to back soreness), but they also lost a series against a team that had remodeled entirely (i.e., sold off) its roster at the Trade Deadline. With the loss, not only are the Royals 58-60, but their postseason odds have dropped to six percent, according to Fangraphs.
Safe to say, it seems like time is running out for Kansas City to go on that much-needed run to make a push to the postseason, even with 44 games remaining this season. While the Royals have the pieces to sneak into the playoffs, it will be hard for them to clinch a spot when they lose series to losing ballclubs (especially ones looking explicitly toward 2026).
It may be easy for a lot of Royals fans to throw the towel on the season, especially with the Kansas City Chiefs playing their first preseason game this past Saturday in Arizona. However, there still is some worthwhile baseball to be played in Kansas City over the next two months, even if the odds are stacked against this squad, statistically speaking.
Thus, let’s examine four critical metrics from this series against the Twins.
Two of the metrics will give fans reasons to be hopeful for the Royals as they return home to Kauffman for a ten-game homestand against the Nationals, White Sox, and Rangers. The other two should be cause for concern, especially with their playoff hopes dwindling.
Bergert’s 37% CSW Rate
There wasn’t a lot to be excited about with the Royals on Sunday. However, starting pitcher Ryan Bergert was the exception, as he shoved in the rubber game on Sunday against the Twins in 5.2 IP.
While it was not technically a “Quality Start”, everything about Bergert’s outing was quality, with the lone exception of a two-run home run allowed to former Omaha Storm Chaser Ryan Fitzgerald. The former Padres pitcher allowed only two runs on four hits and one walk and struck out eight, which was six more than he had in his Royals debut against the Red Sox.
What stuck out from this outing was Bergert’s command and pitch mix. He was able to produce a 37% CSW (called-strike-plus-whiff) rate thanks to an arsenal that was located pristinely, as evidenced in his pitch type and description charts below, via Savant.
Notice how Bergert not only stayed out of the middle, but he pinpointed his pitches where they ought to be located. His four-seamer was up. His slider was down and away. His sweeper was down and armside. Lastly, his changeup stayed on the edges of the strike zone, primarily in the armside area.
As a result, Bergert produced stellar metrics via TJ Stats, especially in terms of whiff and TJ Stuff+.
The xwOBACON was a little high at .437, but the rest of Bergert’s metrics via TJ Stats were sterling. He not only flooded the strike zone with a 56.2% zone rate, but he also generated a strong 28.9% whiff rate and a slightly above-average chase at 28.2%. Furthermore, his overall TJ Stuff+ was 103, highlighted by 54 grades on his four-seamer, sweeper, and changeup.
The Royals have continued to sport one of the best rotations in baseball, despite losing Cole Ragans and Kris Bubic to extended stints on the IL (as well as Michael Lorenzen to a shorter stint). They rank fourth in baseball in starting pitcher ERA and seventh in whip, according to Fangraphs.
With Bergert, not only do they have an arm who can help solidify the rotation down the stretch, but he could legitimately provide some middle-of-the-rotation upside in 2026 and beyond, especially under the tutelage of pitching coaches Brian Sweeney and Zach Bove.
Lugo’s 5.3% Whiff Rate
While Bergert had an encouraging outing on Sunday, it was the inverse for Seth Lugo on Friday night.
In four innings of work, the 2024 AL Cy Young finalist gave up seven runs on nine hits and two walks. He only struck out one batter, which was fewer than the number of home runs he gave up to the Twins on Friday night (two).
When looking at the TJ Stats metrics, Lugo’s lackluster whiff rate stood out the most, especially since both of the whiffs he generated came on the same pitch (his curveball).
Swing-and-miss is not a significant part of Lugo’s pitching strengths. He utilizes a wide variety of pitches to generate chase and induce weak contact. While he still got a decent amount of chase (29.3% rate), he not only had a 5.3% whiff rate but allowed a .477 xwOBACON. His stuff didn’t profile well either overall, as he sported a 95 TJ Stuff+ overall and three pitches with grades of 41 or below. Those pitches were his sinker, changeup, and four-seamer, the latter being his worst with a 38 grade.
The command wasn’t pristine either for Lugo, as illustrated in his pitch type and description charts from Friday night via Savant.
Unlike Bergert, who showed pristine command of the strike zone, it was the polar opposite for Lugo. Noticed all the pitches thrown in the middle of the strike zone, and based on his pitch description chart, Twins hitters certainly made him pay.
One such example was an early bomb by Matt Wallner in the bottom of the first inning, which gave the Twins an early lead that they didn’t relinquish for the remainder of the game.
Since signing his multi-year extension at the Trade Deadline, Lugo has struggled on the mound, much to the chagrin of Royals fans.
In two starts and 8.2 IP, he is posting a 9.35 ERA and 2.19 WHIP with six walks and only four strikeouts. Seeing more walks than strikeouts on Lugo’s line is not something Royals fans have been used to seeing from the 35-year-old righty in his two seasons in Kansas City.
This could be a bad stretch for Lugo. However, Remi Bunikiewicz of Premier Pitching pointed out how Lugo’s whiff-ability has been a concern for quite some time, which could explain this recent negative regression.
Lugo has always been a pitcher who has outperformed his FIP numbers, primarily due to his average strikeout rates. He also benefits from a spacious ballpark and some talented defensive players, especially Witt in the infield and Kyle Isbel in the outfield.
Unfortunately, the Royals’ defense hasn’t been quite as good this season as it was a year ago, as demonstrated by their seventh ranking in OAA this year compared to the first ranking in 2024. It’s only a minor decline, but that slight regression has affected a starter like Lugo, who’s good this season, but not as elite as he was in 2024.
Frazier’s .811 OPS in August
When the Royals acquired Adam Frazier from Pittsburgh for Cam Devanney, many Royals fans questioned the move. However, the results have been encouraging from the 33-year-old in his return to Kansas City.
In 58 plate appearances with the Royals after the All-Star Break, Frazier is slashing .301/.328/.415 with a .743 OPS. He’s been particularly excellent in August, with .333/.344/.467 slash and .811 OPS in 32 plate appearances this month.
Though the Royals’ offense struggled today, Frazier was a lone bright spot. He collected four hits and came up with some key hits, including this RBI single in the first inning.
Frazier is not a superstar player, but he provides a veteran presence and professional plate approach that has been sorely missing from the bottom of the order this season.
Granted, the hard-hit and barrel rates aren’t eye-popping by any measure. That said, Frazier does three things exceptionally well: launch the ball, not whiff, and not strike out, as seen below via his TJ Stats profile summary.
Frazier may not receive many accolades at the end of the season. However, if this Royals team gets hot down the stretch, I bet Frazier will be a key part of that offensive turnaround. He’s been worth bringing back, even if he won’t be back in Kansas City in 2026.
1-for-15 with RISP
Hitting with runners in scoring position (RISP) has been an endeavor for the Royals this season.
According to Fangraphs, their 77 wRC+ in RISP situations ranks second-to-last in baseball, ahead of only the Rockies (75). They put the ball in play in RISP situations, as their 16.4% RISP K rate is the lowest in baseball. That said, their .260 BABIP in RISP situations is second-lowest in baseball (only the Mets have a lower mark). Part of that is bad luck, but part of that is a combination of not putting good swings on balls or swinging at balls they cannot productively hit in clutch situations.
Sunday’s game was a microcosm of those RISP struggles.
They went 1-for-15 with runners in scoring position on Sunday, and they also left 15 runners on base. This led to the Royals’ loss, despite collecting more hits, getting on base more, and producing better quality contact.
According to the MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter on Twitter, the Royals won in 67% of their simulations of this game, meaning that the Twins were “luck merchants” to pull it off.
Yes, the Twins were lucky in some cases, but it’s hard to say the Royals were “unlucky” if that makes sense.
Yes, the Royals did not hit in clutch situations today, with Vinnie Pasquantino and his two-run home run being the exception (which also gave him 20 home runs for the first time in his career).
However, they also made some blunders on the basepaths (Maikel Garcia getting picked off second base immediately after stealing it) and in the field (John Rave misplaying a ball that led to a triple and eventually the game-tying run). That is unacceptable, especially for a Royals team that needs to do the “little things” to win games and close the gap in the AL Wild Card race.
There are a lot of problems with the Royals, and the RISP struggles are just the tip of the iceberg of this uneven season.
Nonetheless, the Royals’ RISP issues need to be pointed out, especially after a gutting series loss to a Twins team that is currently behind Kansas City in the AL Central and Wild Card with a 56-61 record.
Photo Credit: Bruce Kluckhohn/AP