It was more of the same for the Royals on Wednesday night in Seattle, as they lost 3-2 and were pretty much shut down by Logan Gilbert and the Mariners’ pitching staff after a promising first inning in which they scored a run.
Going into Thursday’s series finale in the Pacific Northwest, the Royals are 40-47, 14 games behind the division-leading Detroit Tigers in the AL Central. Their playoff odds sit at 7.8%, according to Fangraphs. The Guardians (40-44) and Twins (41-46) are also struggling, but Kansas City has not been able to make up much ground on them in either the Central or Wild Card standings.
The Royals are not out of the postseason hunt, thanks to the expanded playoff format. However, it’s becoming clearer that even if they do make the postseason, Kansas City, as currently rostered, is not built to do much in the playoffs, even if they advance.
Thus, this team should probably look toward 2026 and beyond when it comes to making moves. That doesn’t necessarily mean that they should be pure “sellers” by any means.
This was a playoff team that finished with an 86-76 record the previous season. They were a couple of games away from making the ALCS, and they beat a good Baltimore team on the road in the AL Wild Card. The core is still in place for this team to at least return to its 2024 form with a couple of the right additions, especially on the offensive end.
That said, I think the time for that rebound has probably expired in 2025, especially with 75 games to go in the season. The Royals should focus on acquiring what is needed (and disregard what isn’t) at the deadline to help them have a significantly better offseason than they did this past winter.
It’s not a bad strategy for the Royals to be focused on 2026. It’s a lot better place to be than where they were after 2023, when it seemed like it would be years before the Royals would have a winning season again.
While additions and subtractions to this 40-man roster over the next month are to be expected (especially with the Trade Deadline at the end of the month), the Royals also have to make decisions on those who are currently on the active roster.
If Kansas City is focused on momentum and building toward 2026, then they should option Jac Caglianone to Omaha after this Mariners series.
Looking at Cags’ MLB Debut Thus Far
It certainly hasn’t been pretty for Cags in his first 103 plate appearances at the Major League level.
In 26 games played, he has a slash of .144/.194/.237 with a .431 OPS. He has two home runs, but his ISO is .093 and his wRC+ is 14, all subpar marks for a hitter with his power potential. When looking at his batted-ball and Statcast profile via TJ Stats, he’s shown some hard-hit ability, but he’s struggled with whiffs and making contact consistently.
His 109.9 MPH 90th EV, 113.9 MPH Max EV, 45.2% hard-hit rate, and 9.6% barrel rate demonstrate the pure power Cags possesses. However, his 27.6% whiff rate, 37.4% chase rate, and 31.5% LA Sweet-Spot percentage demonstrate that he’s swinging and missing far too often and not launching the ball consistently when making contact.
As a result, his wOBA and expected wOBA (xwOBA) have both plummeted sharply in his last 25 plate appearances, as demonstrated in the chart comparison below. (Left for wOBA; right for xwOBA.)
It would be worthwhile to be patient with Cags if he were excelling against one kind of pitch. Unfortunately, he has been struggling massively against all pitch types, based on Statcast data.
His wOBA is .213 against fastballs, .240 against breaking balls, and .160 against offspeed pitches. Furthermore, he’s posting whiff rates of 21.3% against fastballs, 34.6% against breaking balls, and 29.2% against offspeed pitches. It’s not like he needs to adjust against one type of pitch. Instead, he’s getting overwhelmed by all MLB stuff in general.
Another issue for Cags has been that he’s chasing everything, not just one particular pitch. His O-Swing% is over 35% for all three types of pitches, and his whiff pitch type chart is pretty ugly at the Major League level this season.
He’s not whiffing on pitches in the strike zone for the most part. Conversely, he’s chasing a ton out of the zone, and he’s missing on those pitches, which has been working to the advantage of opposing pitchers. To make matters worse, those out-of-the-zone offerings are not close. A lot of the different pitches are waste pitches, and it doesn’t seem like Cags is picking those pitches up quickly enough to lay off.
The clip compilation below shows how poorly Cags has been chasing this year with the Royals against fastballs, breaking balls, and off-speed pitches (these whiffs also resulted in strikeouts).
The worst part of all three of those strikeouts is the uncompetitive nature of all those swings. That shows that he was not just fooled, but guessed badly enough that he wouldn’t have done anything with the pitch if he had made contact.
Speaking of contact, Cags is also sporting a 52.1% groundball rate and 1.81 GB/FB rate with the Royals. For comparison, his marks in those categories in Omaha were 1.36 and 43.3%, and in Northwest Arkansas, they were 0.76 and 32.5%.
His MLB radial chart via Savant shows that he has the potential to barrel the ball and make productive contact (notice the dots in those blue zones, which are ideal). Unfortunately, he has way too many dots below that zero-degree mark, which is not suitable for a hitter with his raw power tool.
The skills are there for Cags to still live up to his once massive hype, and in an ideal world, the Royals could be patient and give him at-bats as he works through these issues. If this were 2023, I think JJ Picollo and Matt Quatraro would keep Cags up, much like Bobby Witt, Jr. in 2022 when he was going through his growing pains.
However, 2025 is a much different story. The Royals remain competitive and aim to establish strong momentum for the 2026 season. To do that, they still need to ultimately win a fair share of games with a core group that they know will be around next season.
Cags is not the only one who needs a break from MLB pitching. Drew Waters and John Rave are likely not MLB players, as I called out Waters on Twitter for his lackluster Statcast percentiles after a sizeable sample this season.
I think the Royals also need to move on from Mark Canha, who’s worn out his welcome as a platoon bat in Kansas City, and probably need to find another bench bat beyond Tyler Tolbert, whose one-tool profile just doesn’t fit the needs of this club right now.
What the Royals Should Do in Cags’ Place
Over the next month, they will need to explore acquiring bats from outside the organization through trade. Today, news broke that one possibility could be Bryan Reynolds, an outfielder with the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Reynolds is going through a down season. However, he’s been hitting much better recently (check out his rolling wOBA chart embedded in the TJ Stats card), and he still showcases skills that would be welcomed in this Royals lineup.
A 71-point difference in wOBA and xWOBA is wild, and a sign that he could be due for a big second half, regardless of where he’s playing.
That said, any trade, whether it’s for Reynolds or someone else (the Royals have also been linked to the Cubs), will take more time than expected. It’s unlikely that any major trade will happen before the All-Star Break.
In the meantime, in Cags’ spot, the Royals also need to give one last chance to players like MJ Melendez and Michael Massey so they can make informed decisions about their status for the 2026 season.
Melendez is only hitting .231 with a 74 WRC+ in 254 plate appearances with the Storm Chasers this year. However, his power tool has still been present, and he seems to be more in the groove after making appropriate changes back to his stance and swing. At the very least, he provides a power upside that the Royals are desperately missing right now at the bottom of the batting order, based on his Statcast metrics in Triple-A.
His barrel rate is above average, and his hard-hit and average EV numbers are elite. He is also hitting fastballs and breaking balls well, as evidenced by his .424 and .387 xwOBACON marks on those pitch types, respectively.
Will Melendez turn it around and look more like his 2022 self (when he posted a 97 wRC+)? I don’t think so, but one last run in the Majors could determine whether the Royals give him a contract this offseason or non-tender him.
Massey, on the other hand, has been performing much better in Omaha during his rehab stint, as indicated by his TJ Stats card data.
Unfortunately, it appears that Masey may have been hurt again in Omaha. After getting plunked by a ball on Tuesday, he was taken out of the game and didn’t play on Wednesday. On Thursday, the Royals released this news:
On a positive note, Joel Goldberg of the Fanduel Sports Network released this news update regarding Massey shortly before the first pitch on Thursday.
Hopefully, Massey can return soon so that he can get back on track to return to the Royals, and Picollo and company can make a proper evaluation about his role and status for next season. With Jonathan India having one more year of club control after this season, the Royals may have to make a tough decision with Massey this offseason (like Melendez) if he can’t turn things around, hitting-wise.
Why Does Moving to Omaha Benefit Cags for Now?
I know the gut reaction from Royals fans is “Cags already crushed Triple-A pitching! He needs to learn against big league pitching!”
I sympathize and agree to a point. Would facing MLB pitching be more beneficial? Absolutely. That said, the environment is not currently set up for him to succeed, which is no fault of his or even the Royals.
The Royals needed someone to give them a legitimate jolt in the middle of the lineup. Cags was killing it in Northwest Arkansas and Omaha, and his tools demonstrated that at both levels, as seen in his TJ Stats cards from both those stints this year.
Furthermore, the Royals didn’t have many options at Triple-A beyond Cags when it came to power.
Cam Devanney has been a nice story, but he primarily plays infield, and he’s 28 years old (and never played in the Major Leagues). Harold Castro has done as expected as a 31-year-old former Major Leaguer playing in Triple-A. Cavan Biggio and Joey Wiemer have demonstrated some promising results lately in Omaha. However, their profiles still raise significant question marks about whether that success will translate to the Major League level.
The Royals didn’t have a choice if they legitimately wanted to upgrade their lineup from Omaha. Cags was the only option.
Furthermore, he showed improvement in his plate discipline in Omaha, but that was based on such a limited number of at-bats. The Royals needed to see if that improvement was for real, or just the result of a tiny sample size. Kansas City learned it was the latter, so letting him go back to Omaha to work on his pitch recognition in a lower-stakes environment will only help him in the long run.
Fans can’t blame Picollo for trying with Cags in this first go-around. That said, he should fold his hand now to preserve Cags’ confidence and take the pressure off the young star.
After all, Cags only had 12 games and 54 plate appearances in Omaha. Let him get 30-40 more games and 100-120 plate appearances. If he’s mashing there like he did in his first stint in Omaha, the Royals can then bring him up in September and let him finish with the Big League squad when rosters expand. By then, the pressure will be off and Cags-Mania will be out of Royals fans’ systems.
Plus, going to Omaha will allow Cags to play with Carter Jensen, who’s starting to surge a bit with the Storm Chasers since being named to the MLB Futures Game taking place during All-Star Weekend.
Carter and Cags could be to the Royals in 2026 like Bobby and MJ in 2022. Hitters need to develop chemistry in the farm system together. Cags and Jensen have done that for the most part this year, and they seem to get along well, which is promising for the future of this club beyond Bobby Witt, Jr.
Let Cags have fun again in Omaha and work on his pitch recognition (and limiting his chase) while the Royals try to figure out their roster for next season.
And letting him have fun with the Storm Chasers with him and Jensen hitting back-to-back, not only will be exciting for Storm Chasers fans, but Royals fans as well, who need hope for 2026 after a disappointing 2025 campaign.
Photo Credit: Jay Biggerstaff/Getty Images
Ok. Cags came to the majors for his cup of coffee and got served a healthy slice of humble pie. Looking at the chart, he chases too much. He needs to learn plate discipline. A hitting coach seems to be in the cards to help his batting average and OBP. Other than first pitch fastballs and maybe 3-0 pitches, he should strictly limit swings to balls in the zone. Oddly enough, its the same recipe that applies to Waters. Waters came up without the aura of Cags… So pitchers did not respect him and paid the price. Then, they did, and Waters did not adjust by tightening his strike zone and being more selective. The rest is predictable. Waters is the typical gifted physical specimen who has gotten by on physical prowess, and now that he has met his match in the Majors, he lacks the tools for making adjustments. Otherwise, lump him with Massey and Lugo in a trade for a couple of (OF) corner bats. The Hubbies have a need for starting pitching and a bench infield bat plus some outfield drama, which fits our needs. We could net their prospect, Owen Caysie and RF Seiya Suzuki. They would tidy up their roster a bit. If we can sign Suzuki to an extension, so much better.
[…] While some Royals fans may be clamoring for a call-up in September, JJ Picollo would be judicious to stay patient with Jensen and avoid the mistakes they have made with Jac Caglianone and his promotion. […]