As you all know, I am an optimistic Royals fan and try to be hopeful in my coverage of the Kansas City Royals. That isn’t easy to do, especially after the Royals lost 3-2 on Sunday afternoon, completing an Athletics sweep at Kauffman Stadium this weekend.
I didn’t start this blog a year ago, when the Royals were 86-76 and made it to the ALDS against the Yankees. Instead, this blog began in 2018, when the Royals were starting their second rebuild under then-GM Dayton Moore and ended up going 58-104 that season.
For seven seasons, I have covered the Royals in some capacity and have witnessed both the good and the bad. Despite all those difficult seasons and games, I remain hopeful as a fan of this club and its future. I remained hopeful about this club during the Moore era and am even more optimistic about it in the JJ Picollo era, as Picollo has helped turn this organization around in his short tenure at both the Major and Minor League levels.
That’s what being a Royals fan is. It’s staying optimistic with this team, even when the odds are stacked against the club, which is the 28th-most valuable franchise in baseball, according to Forbes (only the Rays and Marlins have a lower team value).
Even with the Royals sitting at 34-38 after losing six straight games to the Yankees and Athletics at Kauffman Stadium this week, I still believe this is a potential playoff team, despite their playoff odds being 13.1%, according to Fangraphs, as of Sunday. Even though the Royals have lost six in a row, they are still only three games back for the last Wild Card spot.
Furthermore, the Red Sox, who are ahead of the Royals in the Wild Card standings, may be embarking on another “mini-rebuilding” process, as evidenced by their trade of star third baseman Rafael Devers to the San Francisco Giants on Sunday afternoon.
There is still hope for Kansas City this season. After all, we are only 72 games into a 162-game season. There are still 90 games remaining in 2025, and things can still change for the Royals in terms of their postseason hopes, as recent history has demonstrated. Nick Kappel, Director of Media Relations, posted about it on Twitter yesterday.
However, we are beyond just “hoping” for a turnaround with this team. The time for action is needed, especially with the Royals sporting a 3-10 record in June and being outscored by 22 runs.
And by “action,” I mean it’s time for changes in the organization, in all facets, as hard as that is to say and stomach as a passionate Royals fan.
The Royals Need to Make A Trade (Or Two)
With the Royals ranking third-to-last in runs scored per game (RS/G) with a 3.31 mark (only the Rockies and Pirates are worse), Kansas City needs to find help with the lineup quickly.
Unfortunately, the outfield has been a position where the Royals have struggled to produce this season, based on the metrics.
According to Fangraphs, Royals outfielders rank last in fWAR (-0.9), wRC+ (69), and ISO (.096). Even over the last month, Kansas City has not gotten much production from its outfielders, which has only contributed to the team’s overall offensive woes.
Since May 1st, the Royals have only had two outfielders who have produced fWAR marks over zero (Kyle Isbel and Nick Loftin) and a wRC+ over 100 (Loftin and Jonathan India, who has made a transition to second base). To put salt in the wound, only two hitters have ISO marks over .100. As stated before, India has not played outfield in a while, and Loftin’s ISO will drop a bit after a 0-for-4 day at the plate on Sunday.
Kansas City has certainly done its part to mix things up to get a jolt offensively from the outfielders.
After posting a -1.0 in 102 plate appearances since May 1st, the Royals designated Hunter Renfroe for assignment and eventually released him. They demoted MJ Melendez to Omaha, and his tenure there has been a mixed bag, as demonstrated by his Statcast percentile and overall numbers via TJ Stats.
When it comes to hard-hit and batted-ball data, Melendez is showing progress from his disastrous start with the Royals earlier this year, before his demotion to Triple-A. However, he’s still whiffing and chasing a ton, and his .673 OPS and .288 wOBA aren’t exactly promising numbers deserving of a call-up just yet (though he could be ready for one at the end of the month or after the All-Star Break).
Drew Waters and John Rave were called up from Omaha to provide a spark in place of MJ and Renfroe. Unfortunately, Waters has cooled off significantly after a hot start, and Rave looks overwhelmed by Major League pitching. Their lackluster Statcast percentiles at the Major League level demonstrate that they’re probably Four-A players at the end of the day.
Lastly, Mark Canha has added a veteran presence to the bench, and his plate discipline yielded early results. That said, he’s nosedived since May, and his overall Statcast percentiles don’t offer any hope that any significant turnaround is coming soon for the Royals’ lineup, even in platoon situations.
The Royals can live with Kyle Isbel’s questionable production in the batting order (78 wRC+ since May 1st) because of his elite defense and strong baserunning (which explains his 0.6 fWAR). However, Waters, Rave, and Canha are not providing anything to the Royals lineup that Isbel isn’t already. That should make those three expendable, which should open up a few spots on the active roster.
Jac Caglianone has struggled out of the gate a bit, but he’s hitting the ball hard, and he’s the kind of player of caliber that the Royals should be patient with, even if the power hasn’t shown yet in home runs. The batted-ball and exit velocity data are too impressive for him to stay this mediocre in his surface-level stats for long.
Right now, the Royals can depend on Jac and Isbel in the outfield. They need another couple at the least, and to do that, they need to start exploring trades, much like the Giants did with Devers this afternoon.
I talked about some possible outfield trade targets last week that wouldn’t cost the Royals a ton of trade capital. While they would carry some risk (they are expendable for a reason), they provide the power upside that this team desperately needs. My favorite from that group is Miami’s Jesus Sanchez, who likely doesn’t fit the Marlins’ long-term plans and is out of Minor League options. The latter should make him a bit more affordable than other trade targets who still have that roster flexibility.
Here’s a look at what he could offer the Royals lineup in terms of Statcast metrics.
Another possibility should be Taylor Ward of the Angels. Los Angeles has nosedived a bit, as they are now 33-37 with 2.4% odds to make the postseason. Ward is a talented player, and although he hasn’t hit for a high average this year, he has hit 18 home runs, boasts a .745 OPS, and exhibits strong batted-ball and barrel percentiles.
The Angels may still have aspirations of making the postseason, especially since they are four games under .500, much like the Royals. That said, even if the Angels want to compete, they need pitching to make any run.
The Royals can help the Angels in that regard, whether it’s current pitching or future assets.
Michael Lorenzen could be a nice fit for the Angels, especially since Lorenzen had a solid 2022 in Los Angeles on the mound. Even though Lorenzen has a 4.91 ERA, he’s the durable kind of arm that would be a solid No. 3 man in the rotation for them behind Yusei Kikuchi and Jose Soriano.
On a positive note, the Royals got another positive rehab outing from Kyle Wright on Sunday. The stuff is still being ramped up, as evidenced by his command (44.6% zone rate). However, he still struck out six and only walked one in four innings of work.
Wright could help soften the blow of the loss of Lorenzen, or could be thrown into the trade as a sweetener for the Angels in a possible Ward deal.
Regardless of who the Royals trade, they need to make a dramatic move, even if it hurts a bit. The Giants gave up a struggling, but high velocity arm (Jordan Hicks), a pitching prospect with upside (Kyle Harrison), and a polished first-base prospect who could be something in a year or two (James Tibbs).
The Royals may not get a player of Devers’ caliber. However, they need to be prepared to sacrifice some significant assets to salvage this season.
It’s unlikely that anyone within this system, whether on the active roster or not, is going to “save” this Royals offense. That help will only come from outside the organization.
That said, the longer they wait, the worse their chances will be of returning to the postseason (especially since other teams will begin making moves now that the Giants and Red Sox have set the market).
A Coaching Change May Be Needed
I don’t want to criticize people’s jobs or suggest that they be replaced. It’s a slippery slope, and oftentimes, it doesn’t produce the results that one would expect. After all, these are people who work their butts off behind the scenes and they aren’t the ones swinging a bat, throwing a pitch, or fielding a ball.
That said, the Royals need a jolt, and shuffling the coaching staff or organization a bit can help turn things around and put everyone on notice that poor results like this won’t be tolerated.
For example, let’s look at the Texas Rangers, who let go of hitting “coordinator” Donnie Eckert on May 5th and replaced him with Brett Boone. At that time, the Rangers had an 80 wRC+ and a .131 ISO. From May 5th to June 15th, they have improved their wRC+ to 92, and their ISO is .154.
It’s not a tremendous turnaround, but it’s been a step in the right direction. The Rangers remain in the Wild Card hunt with a 36-36 record (and +27 run differential) and are playing their best baseball of the season right now (which isn’t good for the Royals, who play them in Arlington in the next series).
The Royals could also see the same kind of Texas-like turnaround with a change in the lead-hitting coach.
A fresh voice could help bring some new perspective and perhaps some new approaches for a team that desperately needs to improve on the hitting end. Alec Zumwalt is undoubtedly qualified to be an MLB hitting coach, and I do not doubt his work ethic or ability. After all, he did help this team win 86 games last year. One can’t forget that and his impact on this group of hitters during his tenure.
However, the Royals can’t simply accept a six-game losing streak at home and being swept by the A’s, given that they scored only six total runs in a three-game series against them. Bad stretches are one thing. What we’re seeing from this group of Royals hitters has been problematic not just since Opening Day, but since September after Vinnie Pasquantino‘s injury.
Who is that hire?
I prefer someone from outside the organization, but I am not aware of who is available at this time. I would want someone with coaching chops. Just hiring someone on “name” isn’t enough for this group. (Someone on Twitter mentioned Mike Moustakas, which made me roll my eyes; let’s think of a solution outside of 2015, okay?) They need someone with a proven track record of hitting coaching success.
Mike Tosar could be available (he is currently a scout with the Dodgers), and he has a solid relationship with Salvy. If they can’t find someone satisfactory now, they could perhaps have Zumwalt and Drew Saylor switch roles, especially since Saylor has extensive experience with many Royals hitters developed in the system.
A change may not be a long-term solution. Organizational restructuring and outside hiring would undoubtedly be needed to alter the overall philosophy of the Royals’ hitting approach and development, as Royals Weekly discussed a couple of days ago in a recent post.
Nonetheless, putting Zumwalt back in player development (which is where he thrived initially with Saylor) and having someone else lead the Royals’ hitting coaching staff for the remainder of the season could provide the “fresh start” that this Royals lineup needs.
Final Thoughts on the Royals’ Outlook
Royals fans shouldn’t give up on this team.
It’s easy to do so, I know. They have been playing an awful stretch of baseball, and the vibes are at an all-time low this season after getting swept by a 29-44 team. The leaders of the Royals (Bobby and Salvy, primarily) held a “Players Only” meeting on Saturday after their 4-0 loss, but it didn’t seem to have much of an impact on Sunday, at least in terms of the score.
The team is floundering, but they’re not drowning, not yet anyway. The signs are there for a breakout. In the third inning, Bobby and Vinnie both drove in runs off Jeffrey Springs to help give the Royals an early lead.
It was also nice to see Bobby get two hits, which helped snap a 1-for-18 stretch in the first five games of the homestand. Even though the numbers aren’t as gaudy as they were a year ago, Witt is still showing encouraging Statcast metrics and still feels due for a turnaround. He’s not an “average player” as one idiotic Royals Twitter user suggested today (his Statcast percentiles are anything but average).
Bobby does need to pull the ball more (and pull it in the air better to boot). However, he remains the key to this lineup. A “hot” Witt at the plate will mean more runs and more wins for the Royals.
And that’s why I can’t give up on the Royals just yet.
Even with Cole Ragans out and coughing up the lead on Sunday, they rank 5th in baseball in team ERA. They have the pitching depth and the star player to get back on the winning track and clinch a postseason berth, especially in an AL Central division that has been fading quickly.
That said, they need to make changes. Roster changes. Coaching staff changes. Organizational changes. You name it.
They can’t continue to tread water with this current roster and staff and hope for a turnaround.
They need to bite the bullet and make those tough decisions to save this season and give Royals fans hope again, both in the short and long term.
Photo Credit: Jay Biggerstaff/Getty Images
Thx for all the analysis, Mr. O’B. I, too, am optimistic about this team’s chances. Their RISP OPS can only improve and, after all, the American League is generally mediocre this year so anything is possible. Plus, look at what the Tigers did in the second half of ’24.
BTW, are you aware your blog posting gets cutoff prematurely in email format? At least it does in mine.
Hi Terry! Thanks so much! And I agree. It’s way too early to throw in the towel on the year, and Detroit showed that last year.
I am not. I will take a look at that and see what the issue is. Thank you so much for the heads up!
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[…] coach Alec Zumwalt has gotten a lot of criticism this year, and it has been understandable considering the Royals’ regression offensively from 2024. […]